Clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer: an ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

LOFZY 2005 - Field experiment on Cyclones over the Norwegian Sea: meteorological measurements of the research aircraft Falcon, 23 autonomous water buoys and radiosoundings at the research vessel Celtic Explorer

The field campaign LOFZY 2005 (LOFoten ZYklonen, engl.: Cyclones) was carried out in the frame of Collaborative Research Centre 512, which deals with low-pressure systems (cyclones) and the climate system of the North Atlantic. Cyclones are of special interest due to their influence on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean. Cyclone activity in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean is notably high and is of particular importance for the entire Atlantic Ocean. An area of maximum precipitation exists in front of the Norwegian Lofoten islands. One aim of the LOFZY field campaign was to clarify the role cyclones play in the interaction of ocean and atmosphere. In order to obtain a comprehensive dataset of cyclone activity and ocean-atmosphere interaction a field experiment was carried out in the Lofoten region during March and April 2005. Employed platforms were the Irish research vessel RV Celtic Explorer which conducted a meteorological (radiosondes, standard parameters, observations) and an oceanographic (CTD) program. The German research aircraft Falcon accomplished eight flight missions (between 4-21 March) to observe synoptic conditions with high spatial and temporal resolution. In addition 23 autonomous marine buoys were deployed in advance of the campaign in the observed area to measure drift, air-temperature and -pressure and water-temperature. In addition to the published datasets several other measurements were performed during the experiment. Corresonding datasets will be published in the near future and are available on request. Details about all used platforms and sensors and all performed measurements are listed in the fieldreport. The following datasets are available on request: ground data at RV Celtic Explorer

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and local stressors on the biotechnological potential of marine macroalgae: a brief theoretical discussion of likely scenarios

Climate change can be associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation events on the local and regional scales. Along coastal areas, flooding associated with increased occupation has seriously impacted products and services generated by marine life, in particular the biotechnological potential that macroalgae hold. Therefore, this paper analyzes the available information on the taxonomy, ecology and physiology of macroalgae and discusses the impacts of climate change and local stress on the biotechnological potential of Brazilian macroalgae. Based on data compiled from a series of floristic and ecological works, we note the disappearance in some Brazilian regions of major groups of biotechnological interest. In some cases, the introduction of exotic species has been documented, as well as expansion of the distribution range of economically important species. We also verify an increase in the similarities between the Brazilian phycogeographic provinces, although they still remain different. It is possible that these changes have resulted from the warming of South Atlantic water, as observed for its surface in southeastern Brazilian, mainly during the winter. However, unplanned urbanization of coastal areas can also produce similar biodiversity losses, which requires efforts to generate long-term temporal data on the composition, community structure and physiology of macroalgae.

Land Use, Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services in an Era of Global Change

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse interactions between freshwater flows, terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. Freshwater management and policy has mainly focused on the liquid water part (surface and ground water run off) of the hydrological cycle including aquatic ecosystems. Although of great significance, this thesis shows that such a focus will not be sufficient for coping with freshwater related social-ecological vulnerability. The thesis illustrates that the terrestrial component of the hydrological cycle, reflected in vapour flows (or evapotranspiration), serves multiple functions in the human life-support system. A broader understanding of the interactions between terrestrial systems and freshwater flows is particularly important in light of present widespread land cover change in terrestrial ecosystems. The water vapour flows from continental ecosystems were quantified at a global scale in Paper I of the thesis. It was estimated that in order to sustain the majority of global terrestrial ecosystem services on which humanity depends, an annual water vapour flow of 63 000 km3/yr is needed, including 6800 km3/yr for crop production. In comparison, the annual human withdrawal of liquid water amounts to roughly 4000 km3/yr. A potential conflict between freshwater for future food production and for terrestrial ecosystem services was identified. Human redistribution of water vapour flows as a consequence of long-term land cover change was addressed at both continental (Australia) (Paper II) and global scales (Paper III). It was estimated that the annual vapour flow had decreased by 10% in Australia during the last 200 years. This is due to a decrease in woody vegetation for agricultural production. The reduction in vapour flows has caused severe problems with salinity of soils and rivers. The human-induced alteration of vapour flows was estimated at more than 15 times the volume of human-induced change in liquid water (Paper II).

Modeling the gas and aqueous phase chemistry of the marine boundary layer

Ein eindimensionales numerisches Modell der maritimenGrenzschicht (MBL) wurde erweitert, um chemische Reaktionenin der Gasphase, von Aerosolpartikeln und Wolkentropfen zu beschreiben. Ein Schwerpunkt war dabei die Betrachtung derReaktionszyklen von Halogenen. Soweit Ergebnisse vonMesskampagnen zur Verfuegung standen, wurden diese zurValidierung des Modells benutzt. Die Ergebnisse von frueheren Boxmodellstudien konntenbestaetigt werden. Diese zeigten die saeurekatalysierteAktivierung von Brom aus Seesalzaerosolen, die Bedeutung vonHalogenradikalen fuer die Zerstoerung von O3, diepotentielle Rolle von BrO bei der Oxidation von DMS und dievon HOBr und HOCl in der Oxidation von S(IV). Es wurde gezeigt, dass die Beruecksichtigung derVertikalprofile von meteorologischen und chemischen Groessenvon grosser Bedeutung ist. Dies spiegelt sich darin wider,dass Maxima des Saeuregehaltes von Seesalzaerosolen und vonreaktiven Halogenen am Oberrand der MBL gefunden wurden.Darueber hinaus wurde die Bedeutung von Sulfataerosolen beidem aktiven Recyceln von weniger aktiven zu photolysierbarenBromspezies gezeigt. Wolken haben grosse Auswirkungen auf die Evolution und denTagesgang der Halogene. Dies ist nicht auf Wolkenschichtenbeschraenkt. Der Tagesgang der meisten Halogene ist aufgrundeiner erhoehten Aufnahme der chemischen Substanzen in die Fluessigphase veraendert. Diese Ergebnisse betonen dieWichtigkeit der genauen Dokumentation der meteorologischenBedingungen bei Messkampagnen (besonders Wolkenbedeckungsgrad und Fluessigwassergehalt), um dieErgebnisse richtig interpretieren und mit Modellresultatenvergleichen zu koennen. Dieses eindimensionale Modell wurde zusammen mit einemBoxmodell der MBL verwendet, um die Auswirkungen vonSchiffemissionen auf die MBL abzuschaetzen, wobei dieVerduennung der Abgasfahne parameterisiert wurde. DieAuswirkungen der Emissionen sind am staerksten, wenn sie insauberen Gebieten stattfinden, die Hoehe der MBL gering istund das Einmischen von Hintergrundluft schwach ist.Chemische Reaktionen auf Hintergrundaerosolen spielen nureine geringe Rolle. In Ozeangebieten mit schwachemSchiffsverkehr sind die Auswirkungen auf die Chemie der MBL beschraenkt. In staerker befahrenen Gebieten ueberlappensich die Abgasfahnen mehrerer Schiffe und sorgen fuerdeutliche Auswirkungen. Diese Abschaetzung wurde mitSimulationen verglichen, bei denen die Emissionen alskontinuierliche Quellen behandelt wurden, wie das inglobalen Chemiemodellen der Fall ist. Wenn die Entwicklungder Abgasfahne beruecksichtigt wird, sind die Auswirkungendeutlich geringer da die Lebenszeit der Abgase in der erstenPhase nach Emission deutlich reduziert ist.

Iodine speciation in atmospheric aerosols in the marine boundary layer

Iodine chemistry plays an important role in the tropospheric ozone depletion and the new particle formation in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL). The sources, reaction pathways, and the sinks of iodine are investigated using lab experiments and field observations. The aims of this work are, firstly, to develop analytical methods for iodine measurements of marine aerosol samples especially for iodine speciation in the soluble iodine; secondly, to apply the analytical methods in field collected aerosol samples, and to estimate the characteristics of aerosol iodine in the MBL. Inductively Coupled Plasma – Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) was the technique used for iodine measurements. Offline methods using water extraction and Tetra-methyl-ammonium-hydroxide (TMAH) extraction were applied to measure total soluble iodine (TSI) and total insoluble iodine (TII) in the marine aerosol samples. External standard calibration and isotope dilution analysis (IDA) were both conducted for iodine quantification and the limits of detection (LODs) were both 0.1 μg L-1 for TSI and TII measurements. Online couplings of Ion Chromatography (IC)-ICP-MS and Gel electrophoresis (GE)-ICP-MS were both developed for soluble iodine speciation. Anion exchange columns were adopted for IC-ICP-MS systems. Iodide, iodate, and unknown signal(s) were observed in these methods. Iodide and iodate were separated successfully and the LODs were 0.1 and 0.5 μg L-1, respectively. Unknown signals were soluble organic iodine species (SOI) and quantified by the calibration curve of iodide, but not clearly identified and quantified yet. These analytical methods were all applied to the iodine measurements of marine aerosol samples from the worldwide filed campaigns. The TSI and TII concentrations (medians) in PM2.5 were found to be 240.87 pmol m-3 and 105.37 pmol m-3 at Mace Head, west coast of Ireland, as well as 119.10 pmol m-3 and 97.88 pmol m-3 in the cruise campaign over the North Atlantic Ocean, during June – July 2006. Inorganic iodine, namely iodide and iodate, was the minor iodine fraction in both campaigns, accounting for 7.3% (median) and 5.8% (median) in PM2.5 iodine at Mace Head and over the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Iodide concentrations were higher than iodate in most of the samples. In the contrast, more than 90% of TSI was SOI and the SOI concentration was correlated significantly with the iodide concentration. The correlation coefficients (R2) were both higher than 0.5 at Mace Head and in the first leg of the cruise. Size fractionated aerosol samples collected by 5 stage Berner impactor cascade sampler showed similar proportions of inorganic and organic iodine. Significant correlations were obtained in the particle size ranges of 0.25 – 0.71 μm and 0.71 – 2.0 μm between SOI and iodide, and better correlations were found in sunny days. TSI and iodide existed mainly in fine particle size range (< 2.0 μm) and iodate resided in coarse range (2.0 – 10 μm). Aerosol iodine was suggested to be related to the primary iodine release in the tidal zone. Natural meteorological conditions such as solar radiation, raining etc were observed to have influence on the aerosol iodine. During the ship campaign over the North Atlantic Ocean (January – February 2007), the TSI concentrations (medians) ranged 35.14 – 60.63 pmol m-3 among the 5 stages. Likewise, SOI was found to be the most abundant iodine fraction in TSI with a median of 98.6%. Significant correlation also presented between SOI and iodide in the size range of 2.0 – 5.9 μm. Higher iodate concentration was again found in the higher particle size range, similar to that at Mace Head. Airmass transport from the biogenic bloom region and the Antarctic ice front sector was observed to play an important role in aerosol iodine enhancement. The TSI concentrations observed along the 30,000 km long cruise round trip from East Asia to Antarctica during November 2005 – March 2006 were much lower than in the other campaigns, with a median of 6.51 pmol m-3. Approximately 70% of the TSI was SOI on average. The abundances of inorganic iodine including iodine and iodide were less than 30% of TSI. The median value of iodide was 1.49 pmol m-3, which was more than four fold higher than that of iodate (median, 0.28 pmol m-3). Spatial variation indicated highest aerosol iodine appearing in the tropical area. Iodine level was considerably lower in coastal Antarctica with the TSI median of 3.22 pmol m-3. However, airmass transport from the ice front sector was correlated with the enhance TSI level, suggesting the unrevealed source of iodine in the polar region. In addition, significant correlation between SOI and iodide was also shown in this campaign. A global distribution in aerosol was shown in the field campaigns in this work. SOI was verified globally ubiquitous due to the presence in the different sampling locations and its high proportion in TSI in the marine aerosols. The correlations between SOI and iodide were obtained not only in different locations but also in different seasons, implying the possible mechanism of iodide production through SOI decomposition. Nevertheless, future studies are needed for improving the current understanding of iodine chemistry in the MBL (e.g. SOI identification and quantification as well as the update modeling involving organic matters).

Oxidation photochemistry in the remote marine boundary layer

Die bedeutendste Folge der Luftverschmutzung ist eine erhöhte Konzentration an Ozon (O3) in der Troposphäre innerhalb der letzten 150 Jahre. Ozon ist ein photochemisches Oxidationsmittel und ein Treibhausgas, das als wichtigste Vorstufe des Hydroxyradikals OH die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre stark beeinflusst. Um die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre und ihren Einfluss auf das Klima verstehen zu können, ist es von großer Bedeutung ein detailliertes Wissen über die Photochemie des Ozons und seiner Vorläufer, den Stickoxiden (NOx), in der Troposphäre zu besitzen. Dies erfordert das Verstehen der Bildungs- und Abbaumechanismen von Ozon und seiner Vorläufer. Als eine für den chemischen Ozonabbau wichtige Region kann die vom Menschen weitgehend unberührte marine Grenzschicht (Marine boundary layer (MBL)) angesehen werden. Bisher wurden für diese Region jedoch kaum Spurengasmessungen durchgeführt, und so sind die dort ablaufenden photochemischen Prozesse wenig untersucht. Da etwa 70 % der Erdoberfläche mit Ozeanen bedeckt sind, können die in der marinen Granzschicht ablaufenden Prozesse als signifikant für die gesamte Atmosphäre angesehen werden. Dies macht eine genaue Untersuchung dieser Region interessant. Um die photochemische Produktion und den Abbau von Ozon abschätzen zu können und den Einfluss antrophogener Emissionen auf troposphärisches Ozon zu quantifizieren, sind aktuelle Messergebnisse von NOx im pptv-Bereich für diese Region erforderlich. Die notwendigen Messungen von NO, NO2, O3, JNO2, J(O1D), HO2, OH, ROx sowie einiger meteorologischer Parameter wurden während der Fahrt des französischen Forschungsschiffes Marion-Dufresne auf dem südlichen Atlantik (28°S-57°S, 46°W-34°E) im März 2007 durchgeführt. Dabei sind für NO und NO2 die bisher niedrigsten gemessenen Werte zu verzeichnen. Die während der Messcampagne gewonnen Daten wurden hinsichtlich Ihrer Übereinstimmung mit den Bedingungen des photochemischen stationären Gleichgewichts (photochemical steady state (PSS)) überprüft. Dabei konnte eine Abweichung vom PSS festgestellt werden, welche unter Bedingungen niedriger NOx-Konzentrationen (5 bis 25pptv) einen unerwarteten Trend im Leighton-Verhältnis bewirkt, der abhängig vom NOx Mischungsverhältnis und der JNO2 Intensität ist. Signifikante Abweichungen vom Verhältnis liegen bei einer Zunahme der JNO2 Intensität vor. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Abweichung vom PSS nicht beim Minimum der NOx-Konzentrationen und der JNO2 Werte liegt, so wie es in bisherigen theoretischen Studien dargelegt wurde und können als Hinweis auf weitere photochemische Prozesse bei höheren JNO2-Werten in einem System mit niedrigem NOx verstanden werden. Das wichtigste Ergebnis dieser Untersuchung, ist die Verifizierung des Leighton-Verhältnisses, das zur Charakterisierung des PSS dient, bei sehr geringen NOx-Konzentrationen in der MBL. Die bei dieser Doktorarbeit gewonnenen Erkenntnisse beweisen, dass unter den Bedingungen der marinen Granzschicht rein photochemischer Abbau von Ozon stattfindet und als Hauptursache hierfür während des Tages die Photolyse gilt. Mit Hilfe der gemessenen Parameter wurde der kritische NO-Level auf Werte zwischen 5 und 9 pptv abgeschätzt, wobei diese Werte im Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien vergleichsweise niedrig sind. Möglicherweise bedeutet dies, dass das Ozon Produktion/ Abbau-Potential des südlichen Atlantiks deutlich stärker auf die Verfügbarkeit von NO reagiert, als es in anderen Regionen der Fall ist. Im Rahmen der Doktorarbeit wurde desweiteren ein direkter Vergleich der gemessenen Spezies mit dem Modelergebnis eines 3-dimensionalen Zirkulationsmodel zur Simulation atmosphären chemischer Prozesse (EMAC) entlang der exakten Schiffsstrecke durchgeführt. Um die Übereinstimmung der Messergebnisse mit dem bisherigen Verständnis der atmosphärischen Radikalchemie zu überprüfen, wurde ein Gleichgewichtspunktmodel entwickelt, das die während der Überfahrt erhaltenen Daten für Berechungen verwendet. Ein Vergleich zwischen der gemessenen und der modellierten ROx Konzentrationen in einer Umgebung mit niedrigem NOx zeigt, dass die herkömmliche Theorie zur Reproduktion der Beobachtungen unzureichend ist. Die möglichen Gründe hierfür und die Folgen werden in dieser Doktorarbeit diskutiert.

Meteorological measurements from the Fourcade and Polar Club Glacier, Warszawa Icefield, King George Island, West Antarctica

The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the AP which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. The islands are especially vulnerable to climate change due to their exposure to transient low-pressure systems and their maritime climate. Surface air temperature increases (2.5K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. We have compiled a unique meteorological data set for the King George Island (KGI)/Isla 25 de Mayo, the largest of the South Shetland Islands. It comprises high-temporal resolution and spatially distributed observations of surface air temperature, wind directions and wind velocities, as well as glacier ice temperatures in profile with a fully equipped automatic weather station on the Warszawa Icefield, from November 2010 and ongoing. In combination with two long-term synoptic datasets (40 and 10 years, respectively) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we have looked at changes in the climatological drivers of the glacial melt processes, and the sensitivity of the inland ice cap with regard to winter melting periods and pressure anomalies. The analysis has revealed, a positive trend of 5K over four decades in minimum surface air temperatures for winter months, clearly exceeding the published annual mean statistics, associated to a decrease in mean monthly winter sea level pressure. This concurs with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which gives a measure for the strength and extension of the Antarctic vortex. We connect this trend with a higher frequency of low-pressure systems hitting the South Shetland Islands during austral winter, bringing warm and moist air masses from lower latitudes. Due to its exposure to the impact of transient synoptic weather systems, the ice cap of KGI is especially vulnerable to changes during winter glacial mass accumulation period. A revision of seasonal changes in adiabatic air temperature lapse rates and their dependency on exposure and elevation has shown a clear decoupling of atmospheric surface layers between coastal areas and the higher-elevation ice cap, showing the higher sensitivity to free atmospheric flow and synoptic changes. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0K/100 m), and a distinct spatial variability reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The observed advective conditions bringing warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, lead to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. This paper assesses the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and climatic changes on the atmospheric surface layer and glacier mass accumulation of the upper ice cap during winter season for the Warszawa Icefield on KGI.