Evaluation of TxDOT’s J.A.C.K. model for revenue and expenditure projections

This research report documents work conducted by the Center for Transportation (CTR) at The University of Texas at Austin in analyzing the Joint Analysis using the Combined Knowledge (J.A.C.K.) program. This program was developed by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) to make projections of revenues and expenditures. This research effort was to span from September 2008 to August 2009, but the bulk of the work was completed and presented by December 2008. J.A.C.K. was subsequently renamed TRENDS, but for consistency with the scope of work, the original name is used throughout this report.

Gender differences and store characteristics : a study of Australian supermarket consumers

It is argued, there is a paucity of research with regard to male and female consumer behaviour in the context of supermarket shopping in Australia. The purpose of this paper is to identify the differences between male and female shoppers rating the importance of store characteristics within an Australian Supermarket retail environment. A survey gathered data from two hundred and eighty male and female grocery shoppers, across four major Brisbane supermarkets. A simple-random-sample, collection methodology was employed to collect data. Significant statistical differences between male and female grocery shoppers were evident on all ten store characteristics constructs. Significant gender differences featured on twenty-eight of thirty scale items tested. Female grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics more important than male shoppers. This study has implications for sociology, gender studies and consumer behaviour disciplines. It also has commercial implications for food retail management and consumer marketing activities that can positively influence consumer participation levels, increased store revenues and profitability.

The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks

In this paper we study both the level of Value-at-Risk (VaR) disclosure and the accuracy of the disclosed VaR figures for a sample of US and international commercial banks. To measure the level of VaR disclosures, we develop a VaR Disclosure Index that captures many different facets of market risk disclosure. Using panel data over the period 1996–2005, we find an overall upward trend in the quantity of information released to the public. We also find that Historical Simulation is by far the most popular VaR method. We assess the accuracy of VaR figures by studying the number of VaR exceedances and whether actual daily VaRs contain information about the volatility of subsequent trading revenues. Unlike the level of VaR disclosure, the quality of VaR disclosure shows no sign of improvement over time. We find that VaR computed using Historical Simulation contains very little information about future volatility.

Associations between perception of wellness and health-related quality of life, comorbidities, modifiable lifestyle factors and demographics in older Australians

Aim: The associations between perceived wellness and health-related quality of life, comorbidities and modifiable lifestyle factors in older adults were explored. Methods: Self-administered questionnaires including the Perceived Wellness Survey and the 36-Item Short Form of the Medical Outcomes Study version two were distributed to 328 community-living adults aged 65 years and over. Results: Results showed positive associations between perception of wellness and health-related quality of life. General health (r(249) = 0.66, P < 0.01), vitality (r(249) = 0.59, P < 0.01) and mental health (r(249) = 0.52, P < 0.01) had the strongest association; and social functioning (r(249) = 0.3, P < 0.01) and pain (r(249) = 0.36, P < 0.01) the lowest. Perceived wellness was influenced by hearing, mobility, memory, chronic disease, exercise, gambling and single status. Conclusion: The study identified that perceived wellness in older adults is a multidimensional construct.

Taking a leap of faith : are investors left short changed?

This dissertation examines the compliance and performance of a large sample of faith based (religious) ethical funds - the Shari'ah-compliant equity funds (SEFs), which may be viewed as a form of ethical investing. SEFs screen their investment for compliance with Islamic law, where riba (conventional interest expense), maysir (gambling), gharar (excessive uncertainty), and non-halal (non-ethical) products are prohibited. Using a set of stringent Shari'ah screens similar to those of MSCI Islamic, we first examine the extent to which SEFs comply with the Shari'ah law. Results show that only about 27% of the equities held by SEFs are Shari'ah-compliant. While most of the fund holdings pass the business screens, only about 42% pass the total debt to total assets ratio screen. This finding suggests that, in order to overcome a significant reduction in the investment opportunity, Shari'ah principles are compromised, with SEFs adopting lax screening rules so as to achieve a financial performance. While younger funds and funds that charge higher fees and are domiciled in more Muslim countries are more Shari'ah-compliant, we find little evidence of a positive relationship between fund disclosure of the Shari'ah compliance framework and Shari'ah-compliance. Clearly, Shari'ah compliance remains a major challenge for fund managers and SEF investors should be aware of Shari'ah-compliance risk since the fund managers do not always fulfill their fiduciary obligation, as promised in their prospectus. Employing a matched firm approach for a survivorship free sample of 387 SEFs, we then examine an issue that has been heavily debated in the literature: Does ethical screening reduce investment performance? Results show that it does but only by an average of 0.04% per month if benchmarked against matched conventional funds - this is a relatively small price to pay for religious faith. Cross-sectional regressions show an inverse relationship between Shari'ah compliance and fund performance: every one percentage increase in total compliance decreases fund performance by 0.01% per month. However, compliance fails to explain differences in the performance between SEFs and matched funds. Although SEFs do not generally perform better during crisis periods, further analysis shows evidence of better performance relative to conventional funds only during the recent Global Financial Crisis; the latter is consistent with popular media claims.

Sustainable urban transport : smart technology initiatives in Singapore

Achieving sustainability is one of the major goals of many urban transportation systems. Over the years, many innovative policies have been attempted to achieve an efficient, safe, and sustainable transport system. Those policies often require smart technologies to assist implementation process and enhance effectiveness. This paper discusses how sustainability can be promoted by embedding smart technologies in a modern transportation system. In particular, this paper studies the transport system of Singapore to address how this system is addressing sustainability through the use of smart technologies. Various technological initiatives in managing traffic flow, monitoring and enforcement, sharing real-time information, and managing revenues are discussed in light of their potentiality in addressing sustainability issues. The Singapore experience provides a useful reference for the cities intending to develop and promote a sustainable transport system.

Charitable grants and donations from maching gaming sources : Does it all work out in the wash up?

Material for this paper comes partly from a report commissioned by the Department of Family Services, Aboriginal and Islander Affairs. The report is the result of a multi-strategy research project designed to assess the impact of gaming machines on the fundraising capacity of charitable and community organisations in Queensland. The first Queensland gaming machine was commissioned on 11 February 1992. By 30 November 1994 there were: · 636 clubs operating 13,162 gaming machines · 436 hotels/taverns operating 3,468 gaming machines.1 It was anticipated that the introduction of gaming machines would impact on charities and community organisations. The adverse impacts would be through competition with charity gaming and disposable income that might otherwise be directed towards donations. Some also expressed concern that charities would be relied on to finance social services for problem gamblers. This paper seeks to describe the donations and grants derived by charities from Gaming Machine revenues. Such revenues primarily come from either government distributions from its gaming machine taxes and levies or gaming machine club donations. A final comment is made on the opinions of charitable fundraising professionals about the impact of gaming machine levies on club donations.

Regulating virtual environments

Online gaming environments feature a number of challenging regulatory issues; a diverse player base, uneven power relationship, and lack of real dispute resolution mechanisms. By conducting an ethnographic study of the online environment Eve Online, and using as a comparative the offshore gaming industry, I consider how we might look to regulate, and resolve disputes within, online gaming environments. In doing so, I adopted a novel approach to the study of online gaming environments - that of norms - which gave significance not only to the terms of service dictated by platform providers and their legal advisors, but also to the social and ludic limitations and affordances players constructed themselves. Finally, through an account of the evolution of regulatory mechanisms and dispute resolution in the offshore gambling industry, I consider how an environment which features much in common with online gaming environments overcame a number of these challenges within the last 10-15 years, and what lessons might be taken from those experiences and applied to contemporary online gaming environments.

A chance for diversity? Australian online journalism

Australia’s mainstream media landscape has long been recognised as highly limited – media ownership in the country has traditionally been concentrated in the hands of a very few, and (except for Sydney and Melbourne) it is common for major Australian cities to be served by only one local newspaper, usually produced by Rupert Murdoch’s News Ltd. This can be seen also to affect the quality and diversity of Australian journalism; additionally, the global decline of newspaper publishers’ revenues and overall adverse economic conditions exert further pressure on journalistic operations in the country. At the same time, and possibly in response to the increasing stresses on industrial journalism in the country and the implications they have for the quality of journalistic products, a vibrant and dynamic ecosystem of Australian industrial and citizen journalism publications has emerged online. Existing media organisations have built strong news brands online, while citizen journalists and political bloggers have given voice to issues, concerns, and opinions hitherto underrepresented in Australian mainstream journalism; of particular interest, however, is the increasing level of engagement and interaction between the two. While such interaction has been characterised by deep animosity at times (especially also in the context of the Australian federal election in November 2007), Australia has also seen the emergence and establishment of a number of new, intermediary online publications which act as spaces for public debate and analysis – from the public intellectualism of Online Opinion through the muckraking of Crikey to the progressive politics of New Matilda. The rise of social media as spaces for the discussion of news and politics further changes the media environment, potentially leading both to renewed conflict between professional and citizen journalists and to a greater level of engagement between journalists and audiences. Overall, then, such online developments offer a chance for a greater diversity of opinion and representation in Australian journalism, but also remain under a cloud from uncertain long-term business models and funding arrangements. This chapter outlines current trends in Australian online journalism, and speculates about their effect on the Australian news media landscape.

The potential for ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia

The Australian sugar industry processes approximately 35 million tonnes of sugarcane per year from 400 000 hectares of land. Sugar remains the principal revenue stream from sugarcane in Australia with less than 60 ML/y of fuel ethanol produced from final molasses at present. Modelling has been undertaken to estimate the potential ethanol production from the Australian sugar industry for integrated facilities producing both sugar and ethanol from the entire sugarcane resource. Although research aimed at developing commercial processes is ongoing, the use of a proportion of the bagasse and trash for ethanol production, in addition to juice and molasses fermentation, would allow significant increases in the scale of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, increasing total industry revenues while maintaining energy self sufficiency.

The cost of being ethical : evidence from Islamic equity funds

This paper examines the relationship between financial performance and ethical screening intensity of a special class of ethical funds that is rooted in Islamic values – Islamic equity funds (IEFs). These faith-based ethical funds screen investments on compliance with Islamic values where conventional interest expense (riba), gambling (maysir), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and non-ethical (non-halal) products are prohibited. We test whether these extra screens affect the financial performance of IEFs relative to non-Islamic funds. Based on a large survivorship-free international sample of 387 Islamic funds, our results show that IEFs on average underperform conventional funds by 40 basis points per month, or 4.8% per year (supporting the underperformance hypothesis). While Islamic funds do not generally perform better during crisis periods, they outperformed conventional funds during the recent sub-prime crisis (supporting the outperformance hypothesis). Using holdings-based measures for ethical screening intensity, results show IEFs that apply more intensive screening perform worse, suggesting that there is a cost to being ethical.

Costly technology adoption, redistribution and growth

We study a political economy model which aims to understand the diversity in the growth and technology-adoption experiences in different economies. In this model the cost of technology adoption is endogenous and varies across heterogeneous agents. Agents in the model vote on the proportion of revenues allocated towards such expenditures. In the early stages of development, the political-economy outcome of the model ensures that a sub-optimal proportion of government revenue is used to finance adoption-cost reducing expenditures. This sub-optimality is due to the presence of inequality; agents at the lower end of the distribution favor a larger amount of revenue allocated towards redistribution in the form of lump-sum transfers. Eventually all individuals make the switch to the better technology and their incomes converge. The outcomes of the model therefore explain why public choice is more likely to be conservative in nature; it represents the majority choice given conflicting preferences among agents. Consequently, the transition path towards growth and technology adoption varies across countries depending on initial levels of inequality.

Industrial land price and its impact on urban growth : a Chinese case study

China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.

Regulating virtual worlds : considering participant-driven approaches

There are a number of pressing issues facing contemporary online environments that are causing disputes among participants and platform operators and increasing the likelihood of external regulation. A number of solutions have been proposed, including industry self-governance, top-down regulation and emergent self-governance such as EVE Online’s “Council of Stellar Management”. However, none of these solutions seem entirely satisfying; facing challenges from developers who fear regulators will not understand their platforms, or players who feel they are not sufficiently empowered to influence the platform, while many authors have raised concerns over the implementation of top-down regulation, and why the industry may be well-served to pre-empt such action. This paper considers case studies of EVE Online and the offshore gambling industry, and whether a version of self-governance may be suitable for the future of the industry.

Governance challenges in the global games industry

Current governance challenges facing the global games industry are heavily dominated by online games. Whilst much academic and industry attention has been afforded to Virtual Worlds, the more pressing contemporary challenges may arise in casual games, especially when found on social networks. As authorities are faced with an increasing volume of disputes between participants and platform operators, the likelihood of external regulation increases, and the role that such regulation would have on the industry – both internationally and within specific regions – is unclear. Kelly (2010) argues that “when you strip away the graphics of these [social] games, what you are left with is simply a button [...] You push it and then the game returns a value of either Win or Lose”. He notes that while “every game developer wants their game to be played, preferably addictively, because it’s so awesome”, these mechanics lead not to “addiction of engagement through awesomeness” but “the addiction of compulsiveness”, surmising that “the reality is that they’ve actually sort-of kind-of half-intentionally built a virtual slot machine industry”. If such core elements of social game design are questioned, this gives cause to question the real-money options to circumvent them. With players able to purchase virtual currency and speed the completion of tasks, the money invested by the 20% purchasing in-game benefits (Zainwinger, 2012) may well be the result of compulsion. The decision by the Japanese Consumer Affairs agency to investigate the ‘Kompu Gacha’ mechanic (in which players are rewarded for completing a set of items obtained through purchasing virtual goods such as mystery boxes), and the resultant verdict that such mechanics should be regulated through gambling legislation, demonstrates that politicians are beginning to look at the mechanics deployed in these environments. Purewal (2012) states that “there’s a reasonable argument that complete gacha would be regulated under gambling law under at least some (if not most) Western jurisdictions”. This paper explores the governance challenged within these games and platforms, their role in the global industry, and current practice amongst developers in the Australian and United States to address such challenges.