994 resultados para Climatic change
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Investigations of geomorphology, geoarchaeology, pollen, palynofacies, and charcoal indicate the comparative scales and significance of palaeoenvironmental changes throughout the Holocene at the junction between the hyper-arid hot Wadi ??Arabah desert and the front of the Mediterranean-belt Mountains of Edom in southern Jordan through a series of climatic changes and episodes of intense mining and smelting of copper ores. Early Holocene alluviation followed the impact of Neolithic grazers but climate drove fluvial geomorphic change in the Late Holocene, with a major arid episode corresponding chronologically with the ??Little Ice Age?? causing widespread alluviation. The harvesting of wood for charcoal may have been sufficiently intense and widespread to affect the capacity of intensively harvested tree species to respond to a period of greater precipitation deduced for the Roman-Byzantine period - a property that affects both taphonomic and biogeographical bases for the interpretation of palynological evidence from arid-lands with substantial industrial histories. Studies of palynofacies have provided a record of human and climatic causes of soil erosion, and the changing intensity of the use of fire over time. The patterns of vegetational, climatic change and geomorphic changes are set out for this area for the last 8000 years.
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The role of climatic change in determining the shape of human evolution,<br/>a theme that came to prominence during the early years of the twentieth<br/>century, has resurfaced with renewed vigor. The author examines the rise and<br/>resurgence of the modern history of the idea that hominid evolutionary pathways<br/>have been triggered by climatic causes to illustrate the continuing vitality of environmental determinism and to highlight some continuities between early-twentieth century and contemporary archaeoanthropology.
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The comparison of palaeoclimate records on their own independent timescales is central to the work of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records) network. For the North Atlantic region, an event stratigraphy has been established from the high-precision Greenland ice-core records and the integrated GICC05 chronology. This stratotype provides a palaeoclimate signal to which the timing and nature of palaeoenvironmental change recorded in marine and terrestrial archives can be compared. To facilitate this wider comparison, without assuming synchroneity of climatic change/proxy response, INTIMATE has also focussed on the development of tools to achieve this. In particular the use of time-parallel marker horizons e.g. tephra layers (volcanic ash). Coupled with the recent temporal extension of the Greenland stratotype, as part of this special issue, we present an updated INTIMATE event stratigraphy highlighting key tephra horizons used for correlation across Europe and the North Atlantic. We discuss the advantages of such an approach, and the key challenges for the further integration of terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records with those from ice cores and the marine realm.
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From 1989 to 1994 a series of papers outlined evidence for a brief episode of climate change from arid to humid, and then back to arid, during the Carnian Stage of the late Triassic. This time of climate change was compared to marine and terrestrial biotic changes, mainly extinction and then radiation of flora and fauna. Subsequently termed, albeit incorrectly, the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE) by successive authors, interest in this episode of climatic change has increased steadily, with new evidence being published as well as several challenges to the theory. The exact nature of this humid episode, whether reflecting widespread precipitation or more local effects, as well as its ultimate cause remains equivocal. Bed-by-bed sampling of the Carnian in the Southern Alps (Dolomites), shows the episode began with a negative carbon isotope excursion that lasted for only part of one ammonoid zone (A. austriacum). However, that the Carnian Humid Episode represents a significantly longer period, both environmentally and biotically, is irrefutable. The evidence is strongest in the European, Middle East, Himalayan, North American and Japanese successions, but not always so clear in South America, Antarctica and Australia. The eruption of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province and global warming (causing increased evaporation in the Tethyan and Panthalassic oceans) are suggested as causes for the humid episode.
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According to the Budget Approach proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), allocating CO2 emission rights to countries on an equal per-capita basis would provide an ethically justified response to global climate change. In this paper, we will highlight four normative issues which beset the WBGUs Budget Approach: (1) the approachs core principle of distributive justice, the principle of equality, and its associated policy of emissions egalitarianism are much more complex than it initially appears; (2) the official rationale for determining the size of the budget should be modified in order to avoid implausible normative assumptions about the imposition of permissible intergenerational risks; (3) the approach heavily relies on trade-offs between justice and feasibility which should be stated more explicitly; and (4) part of the approachs ethical appeal depends on policy instruments which are detachable from the approachs core principle of distributive justice.
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Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely proposed for conservation purposes and as a tool for fisheries management. The Arrbida Marine Park is the first MPA in continental Portugal having a management plan, fully implemented since 2009. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of protection measures on rocky reef fish assemblages and target invertebrates through before-after and control-effect (no-take vs. fished areas) underwater visual surveys and analysis of landings trends. Second, we used surveys before, during and after implementation of the management plan to understand fishers preferences for fishing grounds and adaptation to the new rules, and evaluated the reserve effect through analysis of both ecological responses and fishing effort density. Third, we identified the main oceanographic drivers influencing the structure of reef fish assemblages and predicted the community structure for the last 50 years, in light of climatic change. Overall results suggest positive responses in biomass but not yet in numbers of some commercial species, with no effects on non-target species. The reserve effect is reinforced by the increase in landings of commercial species, despite increased fishing effort density in some areas, especially with octopus traps. Fishing grounds are mainly chosen based on the distribution of target species and associated habitats, but distance to port, weather conditions and safety also influence fishers choices. Moreover, different fisheries respond differently to the protection measures, and within each fishery, individual fishers show distinct strategies, with some operating in a broader area whereas others keep preferred territories. Our results also show that wind stress and temperature are the main oceanographic drivers for rocky reef fish assemblages, with tropicalization of assemblages and polewards movements of species over the last 50 years consistent with temperature trends. We believe this study provides significant lessons for marine conservation and management of coastal systems.
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The effec s of relative water level changes in Lake Ontario were detected in the ysical, chemical and biological characteristics of the sediments of the Fifteen, Sixteen and Twenty Mile Creek lagoonal complexes. Regional environmental changes have occurred resulting in the following sequence of sediments in the three lagoons and marsh. From the base up they are; (I) Till,(2) Pink Clay, (3) Bottom Sand, (4) Gyttja, (5) Orange Sandy Silt, (6) Brown Clay and (7) Gray Clay. The till was only encountered in the marsh and channel; however, it is presumed to occur throughout the entire area. The presence of diatoms and sponge spicules, the vertical and ongitudinal uniformity of the sediment and the stratigr ic position of the Pink Clay indicate that it has a glacial or post-glacial lacustrine origin. Overl ng the Pink Clay or Till is a clayey, silty sand to gravel. The downstream fining and unsorted nature of this material indicate that it has a fluvial/deltaic origin. Water levels began rising in the lagoon 3,250 years ago resulting in the deposition of the Gyttja, a brown, organic-rich silty clay probably deposited in a shallow, stagnant environment as shown by the presence of pyrite in the organic material and relatively high proportions of benthic diatoms and grass pollen. Increase in the rate of deposition of the Gyttja on Twenty Mile Creek and a decrease in the same unit on Sixteen Mile Creek is possibly the result of a capture of the Sixteen Mile Creek by the Twenty Mile Creek. The rise in lake level responsible for the onset and transgression of this III unit may have been produced by isostatic rebound; however, the deposition also corresponds closely to a drop in the level of Lake Huron and increased flow through the lower lakes. The o ange Sandy Silt, present only in the marsh, appears to be a buried soil horizon as shown by oxidized roots, and may be the upland equivalant to the Gyttja. Additional deepening resulted in the deposition of Brown Clay, a unit which only occurs at the lakeward end of the three lagoons. The decrease in grass pollen and the relatively high proportion of pelagic diatoms are evidence for this. The deepening may be the result of isostatic rebound; however, the onset of its deposition at 1640 years B.P. is synchronous in the three lagoons and corresponds to the end of the subAtlantic climatic episode. The effects of the climatic change in southern Ontario is uncertain. Average deposition rates of the Brown Clay are similar to those in the upper Gyttja on Sixteen Mile Creek; however, Twenty Mile Creek shows lower rates of the Brown Clay than those in the upper Gyttja. The Gray Clay covers the present bottom of the three lagoons and also occurs in the marsh It is inter1aminated wi sand in the channels. Increases in the rates of deposi ion, high concentrations of Ca and Zn, an Ambrosia rise, and an increase in bioturbation possibly due to the activities of the carp, indicate th this unit is a recent deposit resulting from the activities of man.
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This study has three purposes: to establish a chronologically controlled vegetational history for a number of sites in south Southwestern Ontario; to utilize the resulting data to support and/or add to the current understanding of Quaternary geology and stratigraphy, and the glacial and postglacial history of the Great Lakes in south Southwestern Ontario; and to attempt to propose a possible explanation for the extinction of the mastodon in Southern Ontario. Palynological and geochronological analyses were conducted on material collected from eleven sites (east to west): Verbeke Mastodon Site, Woloshko Mastodon Site, Walker Pond II, Pond Mills I, Lake Hunger Bog, Bouckaert Site. Mabee Site, Cornell Bog. Colles Lake I, Folden Mastodon Site and Forest Pond. Individual geochronologically controlled (where possible) vegetational histories were reconstructed for each of the sites investigated. The results of the individual studies, when considered in overview. indicated the existance of an established closed boreal forest throughout south Southwestern Ontario by 10,000 years B.P. This evidence for a significant climatic change coincident throughout south Southwestern Ontario supports the proposed age of 10,000 years B.P. for the Pleistocene/Holocene Boundary (Terasmae, 1972). Remnant patches of 'open spruce parkland' persisted in small local 'wet' areas. It was in these areas that the mastodon was restricted during early Holocene time. With continued encroachment by the surrounding boreal forest, possibly speeded up by this browser's destructive feeding habits, the spruce enclaves shrank and the mastodon became extinct in south Southwestern Ontario. The results of this thesis basically support Dreimanis' (1967, 1968) proposed 'Environmental-Climatic' theory for mastodon extinction. It is suggested that increased dryness during the present interglacial compared to the climate of earlier interglacials may be the key to unravelling the problem of mastodon extinction in eastern North America.
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Ralises aux chelles internationales et nationales, les tudes de vulnrabilit aux changements et la variabilit climatiques sont peu pertinentes dans un processus de prise de dcisions des chelles gographiques plus petites qui reprsentent les lieux dimplantation des stratgies de rponses envisages. Les tudes de vulnrabilit aux changements et la variabilit climatiques des chelles gographiques relativement petites dans le secteur agricole sont gnralement rares, voire inexistantes au Canada, notamment au Qubec. Dans le souci de combler ce vide et de favoriser un processus dcisionnel plus clair lchelle de la ferme, cette tude cherchait principalement dresser un portrait de lvolution de la vulnrabilit des fermes productrices de mas-grain des rgions de Montrgie-Ouest et du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux changements et la variabilit climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression. Une mthodologie gnrale constitue d'une valuation de la vulnrabilit globale partir dune combinaison de profils de vulnrabilit aux conditions climatiques et socio-conomiques a t adopte. Pour la priode de rfrence (1985-2005), les profils de vulnrabilit ont t dresss laide danalyses des coefficients de variation des sries temporelles de rendements et de superficies en mas-grain. Au moyen de mthodes ethnographiques associes une technique danalyse multicritre, le Processus danalyse hirarchique (PAH), des scnarios dindicateurs de capacit adaptative du secteur agricole susmentionn ont t dvelopps pour la priode de rfrence. Ceux-ci ont ensuite servi de point de dpart dans llaboration des indicateurs de capacit de rponses des producteurs agricoles pour la priode future 2010-2039. Pour celle-ci, les deux profils de vulnrabilit sont issus dune simplification du cadre thorique de Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relatif aux principales composantes du concept de vulnrabilit. Pour la dimension sensibilit du secteur des fermes productrices de mas-grain des deux rgions agricoles aux conditions climatiques, une srie de donnes de rendements a t simule pour la priode future. Ces simulations ont t ralises laide dun couplage de cinq scnarios climatiques et du modle de culture CERES-Maize de Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), version 4.0.2.0. En ce qui concerne lvaluation de la capacit adaptative au cours de la priode future, la construction des scnarios dindicateurs de cette composante a t effectue selon linfluence potentielle des grandes orientations conomiques et environnementales considres dans llaboration des lignes directrices des deux familles dmissions de gaz effet de serre (GES) A2 et A1B. Lapplication de la dmarche mthodologique pralablement mentionne a conduit aux principaux rsultats suivants. Au cours de la priode de rfrence, la rgion agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est semblait tre plus vulnrable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montrgie-Ouest. En effet, le coefficient de variation des rendements du mas-grain pour la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est tait valu 0,35; tandis que celui pour la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest ntait que de 0,23. Toutefois, par rapport aux conditions socio-conomiques, la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest affichait une vulnrabilit plus leve que celle du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Les valeurs des coefficients de variation pour les superficies en mas-grain au cours de la priode de rfrence pour la Montrgie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est taient de 0,66 et 0,48, respectivement. Au cours de la priode future 2010-2039, la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est serait, dans lensemble, toujours plus vulnrable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montrgie-Ouest. Les valeurs moyennes des coefficients de variation pour les rendements agricoles anticips fluctuent entre 0,21 et 0,25 pour la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest et entre 0,31 et 0,50 pour la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Nanmoins, en matire de vulnrabilit future aux conditions socio-conomiques, la position relative des deux rgions serait fonction du scnario de capacit adaptative considr. Avec les orientations conomiques et environnementales considres dans llaboration des lignes directrices de la famille dmission de GES A2, les indicateurs de capacit adaptative du secteur ltude seraient respectivement de 0,13 et 0,08 pour la Montrgie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est. Dautre part, en considrant les lignes directrices de la famille dmission de GES A1B, la rgion agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est aurait une capacit adaptative lgrement suprieure (0,07) celle de la Montrgie-Ouest (0,06). De faon gnrale, au cours de la priode future, la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est devrait possder une vulnrabilit globale plus leve que la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest. Cette situation sexpliquerait principalement par une plus grande vulnrabilit de la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux conditions climatiques. Les rsultats de cette tude doivent tre apprcis dans le contexte des postulats considrs, de la mthodologie suivie et des spcificits des deux rgions agricoles examines. Essentiellement, avec ladoption dune dmarche mthodologique simple, cette tude a rvl les caractristiques dynamique et relative du concept de vulnrabilit, limportance de lchelle gographique et de la prise en compte dautres sources de pression et surtout de la considration dune approche contraire celle du agriculteur rfractaire aux changements dans les travaux dvaluation de ce concept dans le secteur agricole. Finalement, elle a aussi prsent plusieurs pistes de recherche susceptibles de contribuer une meilleure valuation de la vulnrabilit des agriculteurs aux changements climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression.
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Le cycle du carbone (C) est, depuis la revolution industrielle, destabilise par lintroduction dans latmosphere de C autrefois fossilise. Certaines mesures de mitigation prometteuses impliquent la sequestration accrue du CO2 atmospherique dans les sols via le developpement du reseau racinaire des arbres. Ce projet de recherche visait a : 1) quantifier la biomasse racinaire ligneuse produite annuellement par unite de surface par le Salix miyabeana cultive en regie intensive a courtes rotations, 2) doser la concentration en C et en N des racines de saule en fonction de leur profondeur et de leur diametre et 3) determiner linfluence des proprietes pedoclimatiques du milieu sur la sequestration du carbone organique (Corg) par les racines. Pour y arriver, six souches de saules ont ete excavees a partir de huit sites (n=48) et neuf carottes de recolonisation ont ete implantees a cinq sites (n=45) pour evaluer la productivite racinaire fine. Les echantillons seches ont ete peses pour quantifier la biomasse racinaire produite, et ont ete analyses pour le C et le N. La productivite en biomasse racinaire ligneuse du saule en plantation pour tout le reseau d'echantillonnage varie de 0,7 1,8 Mg/ha/an. La proportion de C dans la biomasse racinaire setend de 31,3% a 50,4% et sa variance dans les tissus est expliquee par le diametre racinaire et par les conditions environnementales des sites de provenance. Les conditions climatiques constituent la principale influence sur la production de biomasse racinaire. La variance de la biomasse racinaire est significativement controlee (p :0,004) par la quantite de precipitation de lete et de lannee qui controlent ensemble 83,4 % du r2 ajuste. La precipitation de lete est inversement liee a la productivite racinaire puisque les proteines expansines des racines sont stimulees par les carences hydriques du sol. La production de racines fines des plantations (1,2 a 2,4 Mg/ha/an) est, elle, plus fortement controlee par les conditions pedologiques du site qui expliquent 36,5% de la variance de productivite des racines fines contre 37,5% de la variance expliquee par les facteurs pedoclimatiques. Le P et le N du sol ont des roles preponderants sur la production de racines fines. Une disponibilite en P accrue dans le sol stimule la biomasse racinaire fine alors quune quantite superieure de N dans le sol limite la croissance racinaire tout en favorisant la croissance des parties aeriennes de la plante. Ce projet a permis dameliorer notre comprehension des conditions pedologiques et climatiques qui engendrent, au Quebec meridional, une productivite et une sequestration en Corg accrue dans le reseau racinaire du saule.
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In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Auswirkungen von Umweltvernderungen in einem N-gesttigten Buchenwaldkosystem ber Basalt (Braunerde) untersucht. Unter vernderten Umweltbedingungen sind hier vor allem Bestandesdachauflsung, immissions- oder waldbaulich bedingt, und Klimavernderung zu verstehen, die eine Erwrmung des Oberbodens zur Folge haben. Die nderungen der Umweltbedingungen werden in diesem Versuchsansatz durch einen waldbaulichen Eingriff simuliert, durch den eine Bestandeslcke entsteht, die in einer Erwrmung des Bodens resultieren und damit den Wasser- und Elementhaushalt insgesamt beeinflussen. Es wird deutlich, dass die in der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchten Flchen als N-gesttigt bezeichnet werden knnen, da die N-Verluste aus dem System die Gre der Eintrge berschreiten. In der Folge ist es zu einer Entkopplung des Stoffhaushalts und damit zu erhhter N-Mobilisierung gekommen. Diese konnte vor allem im hydrologischen Jahr 1996 dokumentiert werden; der berschuss-N-Output liegt auf der Auflichtungsflche bei bis zu 50 kg N/(ha*a)! Die beobachteten hohen N-Austrge erfolgten trotz eines ebenfalls beobachteten Anwachsens des mikrobiellen Stickstoff-Pools und des Aufwachsens einer krautigen und strauchigen Vegetation auf der Auflichtungsflche. Im Jahresgang konnten auf der Auflichtungsflche in 0 - 30 cm Bodentiefe maximale nderungen im Nmic-Vorrat von 130 kg N/(ha*a) beobachtet werden. Das im Frhjahr beginnende quantitative Anwachsen des mikrobiellen Stickstoff-Pools mit dem Jahresgang zeigt vor allem dessen Temperaturabhngigkeit auf. Die am Ende der Vegetationsperiode deutlich ansteigenden Austragsraten zeigen jedoch an, dass der freigesetzte Stickstoff auch von den Mikroorganismen nicht dauerhaft im System gehalten werden kann, da mit fallender Temperatur auch die Mikroorganismen absterben und der in ihrer Biomasse gespeicherte Stickstoff freigesetzt wird. Aufwachsende Vegetation auf der Auflichtungsflche konnte einen Groteil des Netto-Stickstoff-Jahreseintrages aufnehmen. Da die "Netto-Jahres-Mineralisation" 1996 leicht ber der Wurzelaufnahme liegt, verbleibt ein Rest, der nicht von der aufwachsenden krautigen Vegetation der Auflichtungsflche aufgenommen werden kann. Ergebnis ist damit, dass die auf Lochhieben aufwachsende krautige und strauchige Vegetation eine temperaturbedingte Stickstoffmobilisierung nur teilweise kompensieren kann. Allein aufwachsende verholzende Vegetation kann Stickstoff langfristig im System binden.
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Climate change remains a major challenge for todays and future societies due to its immense impacts on human lives and the natural environment. This thesis investigates the extent to which individuals are willing and prepared to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adjust to new climatic conditions in order to cope with the consequences of climate change and reduce the severity of potential negative impacts. The thesis thereby combines research in the fields of the private provision of environmental public goods and adaptation to climate change, which is still widely unconnected in the existing literature. The six contributions of this thesis mainly focus on microeconometric analyses using data from international surveys in China, Germany, and the USA. The main findings are: (i) A substantial share of individuals is willing to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adapt to climatic change. The engagement in both strategies is positively interrelated at the individual level and the analyses reveal hardly any evidence that adaptation activities crowd out individuals incentives to engage in climate protection. (ii) The main determinants of individuals adaptation activities seem to be the subjective risk perception as well as socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics like age, gender, education, and income, while their climate protection efforts are found to be broadly motivated by financial advantages from these activities and additional immaterial benefits. (iii) The empirical findings also suggest a significantly positive relationship between certain climate protection activities. Substitutions are found to occur merely if one measure is perceived to be more effective in providing climate protection or if individuals have high environmental preferences. (iv) This thesis further reveals a common understanding of a (normatively) fair burden-sharing in international climate policy across citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The highest preferences are found for the accountability principle.
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El Lago Chad ha sido durante varias dcadas, una fuente de supervivencia econmica para millones de personas que habitan en cuatro Estados a saber; Nigeria, Nger, Chad y Camern. No obstante, el cambio climtico, el aumento acelerado de la poblacin, la explotacin insostenible y la mala regulacin de los Estados ribereos han sido los principales factores que han dado lugar, en la ltima dcada, a la dramtica reduccin del nivel del Lago Chad. Teniendo en cuenta que los Estados aledaos al Lago, se encuentran inmersos en una Interdependencia Compleja, este nuevo contexto, ha tenido un impacto directo en la regin, debido a que ha agravado otras variables econmicas, sociales, ambientales y polticas, dejando un ambiente de inseguridad regional. De esta manera, la reduccin de la Cuenca del Lago Chad representa una amenaza compartida que vincula estrechamente a Nigeria, Nger, Chad y Camern, lo que permite vislumbrar la existencia de un Subcomplejo de Seguridad Regional.
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Introduccin: En Colombia la investigacin sobre condiciones de trabajo y salud en minera carbonfera es escasa y no considera la percepcin de la poblacin expuesta y sus comportamientos frente a los riesgos inherentes. Objetivo: Determinar la asociacin entre las condiciones de trabajo y morbilidad percibidas entre trabajadores de minas de carbn en Guachet, Cundinamarca. Materiales y mtodos: Se realiz un estudio transversal con 154 trabajadores seleccionados aleatoriamente del total registrado en la alcalda municipal. Se indag sobre caractersticas sociodemogrficas, condiciones de trabajo y salud en las minas. Se estimaron prevalencias de los trastornos respiratorios, osteomusculares y auditivos, y se exploraron las asociaciones entre algunas condiciones de trabajo y los eventos con prevalencia superior a 30% de forma bivariada y mltiple, con regresiones Poisson con varianza robusta. Resultados: Los trabajadores fueron en su mayora hombres, con edades entre 18 y 77 aos de edad. Los problemas de salud ms frecuentemente reportados fueron dolor lumbar (46,10%), dolor del miembro superior (40,26%), dolor del miembro inferior (34,42%), trastornos respiratorios (17,53%) y problemas auditivos (13,64%). Existen diferencias importantes en la percepcin dependiendo de la antigedad laboral y las condiciones subterrneas o no del trabajo. Conclusin: Los riesgos ms reconocidos por los trabajadores son los relacionados con trastornos osteomusculares, al parecer por ser ms evidentes en su cotidianidad. Las acciones en salud ocupacional podrn considerar estos hallazgos en sus planes de prevencin de la enfermedad en las minas del carbn colombianas.
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La presente monografa busca explicar el proceso de securitizacin realizado por la AOSIS del cambio climtico en las COP de la CMNUCC. Esta investigacin defiende que la AOSIS s ha hecho dicho proceso a travs de estrategias como el liderazgo moral y los nexos con actores no-estatales; pero dicho proceso no ha sido exitoso, dado el predominio del discurso del desarrollo sostenible en las negociaciones, el debilitamiento de la AOSIS como actor securitizador y el poco apoyo formal de las potencias emergentes y el bloque UMBRELLA. Para sustentar lo anterior, se realizar una revisin de informes cientficos que demuestran que el cambio climtico es una amenaza a la seguridad, y un estudio desde de la teora de securitizacin de Thierry Balzacq, de los discursos dados por los estados AOSIS, de las COP y de las posiciones de algunos bloques de negociacin sobre el cambio climtico.
