Baltic Sea : security tomorrow - three future scenarios

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Host-parasitoid relationship in different Cotesia melitaearum and Melitaea cinxia populations around the Baltic Sea

The relationship between hosts and parasites is one of the most studied interactions between living organisms, and it is both universal and common in nature. Parasitoids are special type of parasites whose offspring develop attached to or within a single host organism that it ultimately consumes and kills. Hosts are arthropods and most parasitoids belong to the insect order Hymenoptera. For almost two decades metapopulation research on the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) has been conducted in the Åland Islands, Finland. The studies have been concerned with the population dynamics, evolution, genetics, behavior, natural history and life history characteristics of M. cinxia, as well as with species interacting with the butterfly. The parasitoids of M. cinxia have been under long term studies and much has been learned about specific host-parasitoid interactions during the past decade. The research for this Master s thesis was done in the Åland Islands during summer 2010. I conducted a reciprocal transplant style experiment in order to compare the performance of host butterflies (M. cinxia) under attack by different parasitoid wasps (C. melitaearum). I used hosts and parasitoids from five origins around the Baltic Sea: Öland, Uppland, Åland, Saaremaa and Pikku-Tytärsaari. The host-parasitoid relationship was studied in terms of host susceptibility and parasitoid virulence, addressing specifically the possible effects of inbreeding and local adaptation of both parasitoids and their hosts. I compared various factors such as host defence ratio, parasitoid development rate, cocoon production rate etc. I also conducted a small scale C. melitaearum egg development experiment and C. melitaearum external morphology comparison between different parasitoid populations. The results show that host resistance and parasitoid virulence differ between both host and parasitoid populations. For example, Öland hosts were most susceptible to parasitoids and especially vulnerable to Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps. Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps were most successful in terms of parasitoids virulence and efficiency except in Saaremaa hosts, where the wasp did not succeed. Saaremaa hosts were resistant except towards Åland parasitoids. I did not find any simple pattern concerning host resistance and parasitoid virulence between inbred and outbred populations. Also, the effect of local adaptation was not detected, perhaps because metapopulation processes disturb local adaptation of the studied populations. Morphological comparisons showed differences between studied wasp populations and sexual dimorphism was obvious with females being bigger that males. There were also interesting differences among populations in male and female wing shapes. The results raise many further questions. Especially interesting were Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps that did well in terms of efficiency and virulence. Pikku-Tytärsaari is a small, isolated island in the Gulf of Finland and both the host and parasitoids are extremely inbred. For the host and parasitoid to persist in the island, the host has to have some mechanisms to escape the parasitoid. Further research will be done on the subject to discover the mechanisms of Pikku-Tytärsaari host s ability to escape parasitism. Also, genetic analyses will be conducted in the near future to determine the relatedness of used C. melitaearum populations.

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

The aim of this thesis was to study ecology of Baltic Sea ice from two perspectives. In the first two studies, sea-ice ecology from riverine-influenced fast ice to drift ice in the Bothnian Bay was investigated, whereas the last two studies focus on the sensitivity of sea-ice bacteria and algae to UVA examined in situ. The seasonal sea ice cover is one of the main characteristics of the Baltic Sea, and despite the brackish parental water, the ice structure is similar to polar ice with saline brine inclusions, the sea ice habitat. The decreasing seawater salinity from the northern Baltic Sea to the Bothnian Bay translates to decreasing brine volumes along the gradient, governing the size and community structure of the food webs in ice. However, the drift and fast ice in the Bothnian Bay may differ greatly in this sense, as drift ice may have been formed at more southern locations. Rafting and the formation of snow ice are common processes in the ice field of the Bothnian Bay. As evidenced in this thesis, rafting altered the vertical distribution of organisms and snow-ice formation provided habitable space in the better-illuminated, nitrogen-rich surface layer. The divergence between fast and drift ice became apparent at the more advanced stages, and chlorophyte biomass decreased from fast to drift ice, while the opposite held true for protozoan and metazoan biomass. The brine volumes affected the communities somewhat, and a higher percentage of flagellate species was generally linked to lower brine volumes, whereas chain-forming diatoms were mostly concentrated in layers with larger brine volumes. These results add to knowledge of the ecological significance of the ice cover lasting up to 7 months per year in this area. Sea-ice food webs are generally light-limited, but while increasing light irradiances typically enhance the primary production and further, the secondary production in sea ice, any increase in solar radiation also includes an increase in harmful UVA radiation. The Baltic Sea ice microbial communities were clearly sensitive to UVA and the responses were strongly linked to the earlier light history, as well as to the solar irradiances they were exposed to. The increased biomass of chlorophytes and pennate diatoms, when UVA was excluded, indicates that their normally minor contribution to the biomass in the upper layers of sea ice might be partly dictated by UVA. The effects of UVA on bacterial production in Baltic Sea ice mostly followed the responses in algal growth, but occasionally the exposure to UVA even enhanced the bacterial production. The dominant bacterial class, Flavobacteria, seemed to be UVA-tolerant, whereas all the Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria present in the surface layer showed UVA sensitivity. These results indicate that changes in the light field of ice may alter the community structure and affect the functioning of ice food webs, and are of importance when the effects of thinning of the ice cover are assessed.

Antarctic ice shelf melting and its impact on the global sea ice-ocean system

Earth s ice shelves are mainly located in Antarctica. They cover about 44% of the Antarctic coastline and are a salient feature of the continent. Antarctic ice shelf melting (AISM) removes heat from and inputs freshwater into the adjacent Southern Ocean. Although playing an important role in the global climate, AISM is one of the most important components currently absent in the IPCC climate model. In this study, AISM is introduced into a global sea ice-ocean climate model ORCA2-LIM, following the approach of Beckmann and Goosse (2003; BG03) for the thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean. This forms the model ORCA2-LIM-ISP (ISP: ice shelf parameterization), in which not only all the major Antarctic ice shelves but also a number of minor ice shelves are included. Using these two models, ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP, the impact of addition of AISM and increasing AISM have been investigated. Using the ORCA2-LIM model, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the polar sea ice cover and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through Drake Passage (DP) to the variations of three sea ice parameters, namely the thickness of newly formed ice in leads (h0), the compressive strength of ice (P*), and the turning angle in the oceanic boundary layer beneath sea ice (θ). It is found that the magnitudes of h0 and P* have little impact on the seasonal sea ice extent, but lead to large changes in the seasonal sea ice volume. The variation in turning angle has little impact on the sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic but tends to reduce them in the Antarctica when ignored. The magnitude of P* has the least impact on the DP transport, while the other two parameters have much larger influences. Numerical results from ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP are analyzed to investigate how the inclusion of AISM affects the representation of the Southern Ocean hydrography. Comparisons with data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show that the addition of AISM significantly improves the simulated hydrography. It not only warms and freshens the originally too cold and too saline bottom water (AABW), but also warms and enriches the salinity of the originally too cold and too fresh warm deep water (WDW). Addition of AISM also improves the simulated stratification. The close agreement between the simulation with AISM and the observations suggests that the applied parameterization is an adequate way to include the effect of AISM in a global sea ice-ocean climate model. We also investigate the models capability to represent the sea ice-ocean system in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. Our study shows both models (with and without AISM) can successfully reproduce the main features of the sea ice-ocean system. However, both tend to overestimate the ice flux through the Nares Strait, produce a lower temperature and salinity in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and miss the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. These deficiencies are mainly attributed to the artificial enlargement of the Nares Strait in the model. In this study, the impact of increasing AISM on the global sea ice-ocean system is thoroughly investigated. This provides a first idea regarding changes induced by increasing AISM. It is shown that the impact of increasing AISM is global and most significant in the Southern Ocean. There, increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, to warm the intermediate and deep waters, and to freshen and warm the bottom water. In addition, increasing AISM also leads to changes in the mixed layer depths (MLD) in the deep convection sites in the Southern Ocean, deepening in the Antarctic continental shelf while shoaling in the ACC region. Furthermore, increasing AISM influences the current system in the Southern Ocean. It tends to weaken the ACC, and strengthen the Antarctic coastal current (ACoC) as well as the Weddell Gyre and the Ross Gyre. In addition to the ocean system, increasing AISM also has a notable impact on the Antarctic sea ice cover. Due to the cooling of seawater, sea ice concentration and thickness generally become higher. In austral winter, noticeable increases in sea ice concentration mainly take place near the ice edge. In regards with sea ice thickness, large increases are mainly found along the coast of the Weddell Sea, the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and the Ross Sea. The overall thickening of sea ice leads to a larger volume of sea ice in Antarctica. In the North Atlantic, increasing AISM leads to remarkable changes in temperature, salinity and density. The water generally becomes warmer, more saline and denser. The most significant warming occurs in the subsurface layer. In contrast, the maximum salinity increase is found at the surface. In addition, the MLD becomes larger along the Greenland-Scotland-Iceland ridge. Global teleconnections due to AISM are studied. The AISM signal is transported with the surface current: the additional freshwater from AISM tends to enhance the northward spreading of the surface water. As a result, more warm and saline water is transported from the tropical region to the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warming and salt enrichment there. It would take about 30 40 years to establish a systematic noticeable change in temperature, salinity and MLD in the North Atlantic Ocean according to this study. The changes in hydrography due to increasing AISM are compared with observations. Consistency suggests that increasing AISM is highly likely a major contributor to the recent observed changes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the AISM might contribute to the salinity contrast between the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which is important for the global thermohaline circulation.

Blue mussel beds as biodiversity hotspots on the rocky shores of the northern Baltic Sea

ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea is a vulnerable ecosystem currently undergoing a number of changes, both natural and human induced. The changes are likely to affect the species found on these shores, e.g. their distribution and interactions with other species. Blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus x Mytilus edulis) provide one of the main biogenic hard structures on the shallow shores of the Baltic Sea where they aggregate into dense beds and provide a number of resources for over 40 associated macrofaunal species, thus functioning as ecosystem engineers. The blue mussel, being a marine species, is highly likely to be affected by any changes in sea water salinity, circulation and/or water balance. These changes could trickle down also to affect the associated macrofaunal communities. The aims of this thesis were three-fold: first, I examined and described the macrofaunal communities found within blue mussel patches since the fauna associated with mussel patches had never been described in the study area prior to this thesis. Second, I explored how changes in mussel density, size as well as patch size and shape would affect the mussel communities. Finally, I tested how general landscape theories derived from terrestrial studies function in blue mussel systems. Theories included the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, species-area relationships, edge effects and patch isolation effects. The work shows that blue mussels in the northern Baltic Sea have an indisputable function as diversity hotspots and that the faunal assemblages found in mussel patches are extremely rich and unique. Further on, it shows that changes in mussel biomass, size, patch size and amount of edge have the potential to alter the faunal assemblages and diversity within patches. Finally, it shows that although some landscape theories, such as the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, seem to apply also in blue mussel communities, others cannot be directly applied due to the different prevailing conditions in the study system. This is a pioneering work looking at diversity shaping processes on the rocky shores of the Gulf of Finland, making up over 40% of the total water basin. A focus on niche construction, positive facilitation effects and ecosystem engineering could provide new insights and methods for conservation biology, but before this can be done, we need to fully understand the circumstances under which a species becomes an ecosystem engineer and recognize the systems in which it functions.

Seasonal variation in nitrification and nitrate-reduction pathways in coastal sediments in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of the most eutrophic marine areas in the world. The role of nitrogen as a eutrophicating nutrient in the Baltic Sea has remained controversial, due to lack of understanding of nitrogen cycling in the area. We investigated the seasonal variation in sediment nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) at two coastal sites in the Gulf of Finland. In addition to the in situ rates, we assessed the potential for these processes in different seasons. The nitrification and nitrogen removal processes were maximal during the warm summer months, when the sediment organic content was highest. In colder seasons, the in situ rates of the nitrification and nitrate reduction processes decreased, but the potential for nitrification remained equal to or higher than that during the warm months. The denitrification and nitrification rates were usually higher in the accumulation basin, where the organic content of the sediment was higher, but the transportation area, despite lower denitrification rates and potential, typically had higher potential for nitrification than the accumulation basin. Anammox and DNRA were not significant nitrate sinks in any of the seasons sampled. The results also show that the denitrification rates in the coastal Gulf of Finland sediment have decreased, and that benthic denitrification might be a less important sink for fixed nitrogen than previously assumed.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

The roles of nitrification and nitrate reduction pathways in nitrogen cycling of Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish water bodies in the world. Primary production in the Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen (N) availability with the exception of river outlets and the northernmost phosphorus limited basin. The excess human induced N load from the drainage basin has caused severe eutrophication of the sea. The excess N loads can be mitigated by microbe mediated natural N removal processes that are found in the oxic-anoxic interfaces in sediments and water column redoxclines. Such interfaces allow the close coupling between the oxic nitrification process, and anoxic denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) processes that lead to the formation of molecular nitrogen gas. These processes are governed by various environmental parameters. The effects of these parameters on N processes were investigated in the northern Baltic Sea sediments. During summer months when the sediment organic content is at its highest, nitrification and denitrification reach their maximum rates. However, nitrification had no excess potential, which was probably because of high competition for molecular oxygen (O2) between heterotrophic and nitrification microbes. Subsequently, the limited nitrate (NO3-) availability inhibited denitrification. In fall, winter and spring, nitrification was limited by ammonium availability and denitrification limited by the availability of organic carbon and occasionally by NO3-. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) was not an important N removal process in the northern Baltic Sea. Modeling studies suggest that when hypoxia expands in the Baltic Sea, N removal intensifies. However, the results of this study suggest the opposite because bottom water hypoxia (O2< 2 ml l-1) decreased the denitrification rates in sediments. Moreover, N was recycled by the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process instead of being removed from the water ecosystem. High N removal potentials were found in the anoxic water column in the deep basins of the Baltic Proper. However, the N removal in the water column appeared to be limited by low substrate availability, because the water at the depths at which the substrate producing nitrification process occurred, rarely mix with the water at the depths at which N removal processes were found. Overall, the natural N removal capacity of the northern Baltic Sea decreased compared to values measured in mid 1990s and early 2000. The reason for this appears to be increasing hypoxia.

Consistency limits behavior of bentonites exposed to sea water

This article examines the changes in interparticle forces brought about on prolonged contact (1 year period) of a bentonite clay with artificial seawater. The study is undertaken with the purpose of identifying the physico-chemical factors that impart a nonswelling character to smectite clays deposited in marine environments. Results show that equilibration of the bentonite clay with artificial seawater (total pore salinity approximately 42 gL-1) for a 1 year period does not lead to any mineralogical changes in the clay specimens; however, their exchangeable cation positions become prominently dominated by magnesium ions. The consistency limits of the seawater-equilibrated bentonite was determined on stepwise leaching to lower salinities. The predominance of diffuse double-layer repulsion forces in the pore salt concentration range of 42 gL-1 to 1.1 gL-1 caused an increase in the liquid limits of the seawater-equilibrated bentonite specimens on reducing the salinity in the corresponding range (42 gL-1 to 1.1 gL-1). The attraction forces, however, prevail over the repulsion forces at salt concentrations <1.1 gL-1 and cause a decrease in liquid limit of the clay specimens with reduction in pore salinity, which is typical of nonswelling clays. The attraction forces cause aggregation of the clay unit layers into domains that break down on sodium saturation of the clay specimens. It is inferred that the physico-chemical factors responsible for the nonswelling character of the seawater-equilibrated bentonite specimens at pore salt concentrations below 1.1 gL-1 are inadequate to explain the nonswelling character of smectite-rich Ariake marine clays. The lower consistency limits of the Ariake marine clays in comparison to the nonswelling character, seawater-equilibrated bentonite specimens is attributed to a relative deficiency of interparticle forces in the Ariake marine clay.

Denitrification in the River Estuaries of the Northern Baltic Sea

Estuaries have been suggested to have an important role in reducing the nitrogen load transported to the sea. We measured denitrification rates in six estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea. Four of them were river mouths in the Bothnian Bay (northern Gulf of Bothnia), and two were estuary bays, one in the Archipelago Sea (southern Gulf of Bothnia) and the other in the Gulf of Finland. Denitrification rates in the four river mouths varied between 330 and 905 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1). The estuary bays at the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia had denitrification rates from 90 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) to 910 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) and from 230 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) to 320 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Denitrification removed 3.6-9.0% of the total nitrogen loading in the river mouths and in the estuary bay in the Gulf of Finland, where the residence times were short. In the estuary bay with a long residence time, in the Archipelago Sea, up to 4.5% of nitrate loading and 19% of nitrogen loading were removed before entering the sea. According to our results, the sediments of the fast-flowing rivers and them estuary areas with short residence times have a limited capacity to reduce the nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea.

Seasonal and short-term variation in denitrification and anammox at a coastal station on the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Benthic processes were measured at a coastal deposition area in the northern Baltic Sea, covering all seasons. The N-2 production rates, 90-400 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), were highest in autumn-early winter and lowest in spring. Heterotrophic bacterial production peaked unexpectedly late in the year, indicating that in addition to the temperature, the availability of carbon compounds suitable for the heterotrophic bacteria also plays a major role in regulating the denitrification rate. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) was measured in spring and autumn and contributed 10% and 15%, respectively, to the total N-2 production. The low percentage did, however, result in a significant error in the total N-2 production rate estimate, calculated using the isotope pairing technique. Anammox must be taken into account in the Gulf of Finland in future sediment nitrogen cycling research.

Tropical deep convection, convective available potential energy and sea surface temperature

The convective available potential energy (CAFE) based on monthly mean sounding has been shown to be relevant to deep convection in the tropics. The variation of CAFE with SST has been found to be similar to the variation of the frequency of deep convection at one station each in the tropical Atlantic and W. Pacific oceans. This suggests a strong link between the frequency of tropical convection and CAFE. It has been shown that CAFE so derived can be interpreted as the work potential of the atmosphere above the boundary layer with ascent in the convective region and subsidence in the surrounding cloud-free region.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Singularity structure and chaotic behavior of the homopolar disk dynamo

We study in great detail a system of three first-order ordinary differential equations describing a homopolar disk dynamo (HDD). This system displays a large variety of behaviors, both regular and chaotic. Existence of periodic solutions is proved for certain ranges of parameters. Stability criteria for periodic solutions are given. The nonintegrability aspects of the HDD system are studied by investigating analytically the singularity structure of the system in the complex domain. Coexisting attractors (including period-doubling sequence) and coexisting strange attractors appear in some parametric regimes. The gluing of strange attractors and the ungluing of a strange attractor are also shown to occur. A period of bifurcation leading to chaos, not observed for other chaotic systems, is shown to characterize the chaotic behavior in some parametric ranges. The limiting case of the Lorenz system is also studied and is related to HDD.

On the integrability and chaotic behavior of an ecological model

A three-species food chain model is studied analytically as well as numerically. Integrability of the model is studied using Painleve analysis while chaotic behavior is studied using numerical techniques, such as calculation of Lyapunov exponents, plotting the bifurcation diagram and phase plots. We correct and critically comment on the wrong results reported recently on this ecological model, in a paper by Rai [1995].