Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Dynamical complexity in a mean-field model of human EEG

A recently proposed mean-field theory of mammalian cortex rhythmogenesis describes the salient features of electrical activity in the cerebral macrocolumn, with the use of inhibitory and excitatory neuronal populations (Liley et al 2002). This model is capable of producing a range of important human EEG (electroencephalogram) features such as the alpha rhythm, the 40 Hz activity thought to be associated with conscious awareness (Bojak & Liley 2007) and the changes in EEG spectral power associated with general anesthetic effect (Bojak & Liley 2005). From the point of view of nonlinear dynamics, the model entails a vast parameter space within which multistability, pseudoperiodic regimes, various routes to chaos, fat fractals and rich bifurcation scenarios occur for physiologically relevant parameter values (van Veen & Liley 2006). The origin and the character of this complex behaviour, and its relevance for EEG activity will be illustrated. The existence of short-lived unstable brain states will also be discussed in terms of the available theoretical and experimental results. A perspective on future analysis will conclude the presentation.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

In situ and remote-sensing measurements of the mean microphysical and optical properties of industrial pollution aerosol during ADRIEX

We present a summary of the principal physical and optical properties of aerosol particles using the FAAM BAE-146 instrumented aircraft during ADRIEX between 27 August and 6 September 2004, augmented by sunphotometer, lidar and satellite retrievals. Observations of anthropogenic aerosol, principally from industrial sources, were concentrated over the northern Adriatic Sea and over the Po Valley close to the aerosol sources. An additional flight was also carried out over the Black Sea to compare east and west European pollution. Measurements show the single-scattering albedo of dry aerosol particles to vary considerably between 0.89 and 0.97 at a wavelength of 0.55 μm, with a campaign mean within the polluted lower free troposphere of 0.92. Although aerosol concentrations varied significantly from day to day and during individual days, the shape of the aerosol size distribution was relatively consistent through the experiment, with no detectable change observed over land and over sea. There is evidence to suggest that the pollution aerosol within the marine boundary layer was younger than that in the elevated layer. Trends in the aerosol volume distribution show consistency with multiple-site AERONET radiometric observations. The aerosol optical depths derived from aircraft measurements show a consistent bias to lower values than both the AERONET and lidar ground-based radiometric observations, differences which can be explained by local variations in the aerosol column loading and by some aircraft instrumental artefacts. Retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and fine-mode (<0.5 μm radius) fraction contribution to the optical depth using MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites show a reasonable level of agreement with the AERONET and aircraft measurements.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - II. Systems with a more massive inner planet

This paper presents the second part in our study of the global structure of the planar phase space of the planetary three-body problem, when both planets lie in the vicinity of a 2/1 mean-motion resonance. While Paper I was devoted to cases where the outer planet is the more massive body, the present work is devoted to the cases where the more massive body is the inner planet. As before, outside the well-known Apsidal Corotation Resonances (ACR), the phase space shows a complex picture marked by the presence of several distinct regimes of resonant and non-resonant motion, crossed by families of periodic orbits and separated by chaotic zones. When the chosen values of the integrals of motion lead to symmetric ACR, the global dynamics are generally similar to the structure presented in Paper I. However, for asymmetric ACR the resonant phase space is strikingly different and shows a galore of distinct dynamical states. This structure is shown with the help of dynamical maps constructed on two different representative planes, one centred on the unstable symmetric ACR and the other on the stable asymmetric equilibrium solution. Although the study described in the work may be applied to any mass ratio, we present a detailed analysis for mass values similar to the Jupiter-Saturn case. Results give a global view of the different dynamical states available to resonant planets with these characteristics. Some of these dynamical paths could have marked the evolution of the giant planets of our Solar system, assuming they suffered a temporary capture in the 2/1 resonance during the latest stages of the formation of our Solar system.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of Sao Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.

Thermal and structural properties of commercial dental resins light-cured with blue emitting diodes (LEDs)

We have investigated the thermal and structural properties of different commercial dental resins: Filtek(TM) Z-350, Grandio(A (R)), Tetric Ceram(A (R)), and TPH Spectrum(A (R)). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate quantitatively the photo-polymerization behavior and the effect of filler contents on the kinetic cures of the dental resins by using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) techniques. We have successfully obtained the low and high glass transition T (g) values of the dental composite resins from DSC curves. It was also observed a good agreement between the both T (g) values, activation energies from thermal degradation, and the degree of conversion obtained for all samples. The results have shown that Tetric Ceram(A (R)) dental resin presented the higher T (g) values, activation energy of 215 +/- A 6 KJ mol(-1), and the higher degree of conversion (63%) when compared to the other resins studied herein.

Influence of pre-heat treatment and different light-curing units on Vickers hardness of a microhybrid composite resin

The aim of this study was to evaluate the hardness of a dental composite resin submitted to temperature changes before photo-activation with two light-curing unite (LCUs). Five samples (4 mm in diameter and 2 mm in thickness) for each group were made with pre-cure temperatures of 37, 54, and 60A degrees C. The samples were photo-activated with a conventional quartz-tungsten-halogen (QTH) and blue LED LCUs during 40 s. The hardness Vickers test (VHN) was performed on the top and bottom surfaces of the samples. According to the interaction between light-curing unit and different pre-heating temperatures of composite resin, only the light-curing unit provided influences on the mean values of initial Vickers hardness. The light-curing unit based on blue LED showed hardness mean values more homogeneous between the top and bottom surfaces. The hardness mean values were not statistically significant difference for the pre-cure temperature used. According to these results, the pre-heating of the composite resin provide no influence on Vickers hardness mean values, however the blue LED showed a cure more homogeneous than QTH LCU.

Degree of Conversion and Temperature Increase of a Composite Resin Light Cured with an Argon Laser and Blue LED

Different light sources and power densities used on the photoactivation process may provide changes in the degree of conversion (DC%) and temperature ( T) of the composite resins. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the DC (%) and T (degrees C) of the microhybrid composite resin (Filtek (TM) Z-250, 3M/ESPE) photoactivated with one argon laser and one LED (light-emitting diode) with different power densities. For the KBr pellet technique, the composite resin was placed into a metallic mould (2-mm thickness, 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated as follows: a continuous argon laser (CW) and LED LCUs with power density values of 100, 400, 700, and 1000 mW/cm(2) for 20 s. The measurements for DC (%) were made in a FTIR spectrometer Bomen ( model MB 102, Quebec, Canada). Spectroscopy ( FTIR) spectra for both uncured and cured samples were analyzed using an accessory of the reflectance diffusion. The measurements were recorded in absorbance operating under the following conditions: 32 scans, 4 cm(-1) resolution, 300 to 4000-cm(-1) wavelength. The percentage of unreacted carbon double bonds (% C=C) was determined from the ratio of absorbance intensities of aliphatic C=C (peak at 1638 cm(-1)) against an internal standard before and after the curing of the specimen: aromatic C-C (peak at 1608 cm(-1)). For T (degrees C), the samples were created in a metallic mould (2-mm thickness, 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated for 20 s. The thermocouple was attached to the multimeter allowing temperature readings. The DC (%) and T (degrees C) were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey`s test (p < 0.05). The degree of conversion values varied from 35.0 to 50.0% ( 100 to 1000 mW/cm(2)) for an argon laser and from 41.0 to 49% (100 to 1000 mW/cm(2)) for an LED. The temperature change values varied from 1.1 to 13.1 degrees C (100 to 1000 mW/cm(2)) for an argon laser and from 1.9 to 15.0 degrees C (100 to 1000 mW/cm(2)) for an LED. The power densities showed a significant effect on the degree of conversion and changes the temperature for both light-curing units.

Influence of light guide tip used in the photo-activation on degree of conversion and hardness of one nanofilled dental composite

The aim of this study was to evaluate the degree of conversion and hardness of a dental composite resin Filtek (TM) Z-350 (3M ESPE, Dental Products St. Paul, MN) photo-activated for 20 s of irradiation time with two different light guide tips, metal and polymer, coupled on blue LED Ultraled LCU (Dabi Atlante, SP, Brazil). With the metal light tip, power density was of 352 and with the polymer was of 456 mW/cm(2), respectively. Five samples (4 mm in diameter and 2mm in thickness-ISO 4049), were made for each Group evaluated. The measurements for DC (%) were made in a Nexus-470 FT-IR, Thermo Nicolet, E.U.A. Spectroscopy (FTIR). Spectra for both uncured and cured samples were analyzed using an accessory of reflectance diffuse. The measurements were recorded in absorbance operating under the following conditions: 32 scans, 4 cm(-1) resolution, 300-4000 cm(-1) wavelength. The percentage of unreacted carbon double bonds (% C=C) was determined from the ratio of absorbance intensities of aliphatic C=C (peak at 1637 cm(-1)) against internal standard before and after curing of the sample: aromatic C-C (peak at 1610 cm(-1)). The Vickers hardness measurements (top and bottom surfaces) were performed in a universal testing machine (Buehler MMT-3 digital microhardness tester Lake Bluff, Illinois USA). A 50 gf load was used and the indenter with a dwell time of 30 s. The data were submitted to the test t Student at significance level of 5%. The mean values of degree of conversion for the polymer and metal light guide tip no were statistically different (p = 0.8389). The hardness mean values were no statistically significant different among the light guide tips (p = 0.6244), however, there was difference between top and bottom surfaces (p < 0.001). The results show that so much the polymer light tip as the metal light tip can be used for the photo-activation, probably for the low quality of the light guide tip metal.

Effect of different dental composite resins on the polymerization process

Dental composite resins possess good esthetic properties, and are currently among the most popular dental restorative materials. Both organic and inorganic phases might influence the material behavior, the filler particle features and rate are the most important factors related to improvement of the mechanical properties of resin composites. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of three different composite resins on the polymerization process by Vickers hardness test. The samples were prepared using three different composite resins, as follow: group I-P-60 (3M/ESPE); group II-Herculite XRV (Kerr), and group III-Durafill (Heraeus-Kulzer). The samples were made in a polytetrafluoroethylene mould, with a rectangular cavity measuring 7 mm in length, 4 mm in width, and 3 mm in thickness. The samples were photo-activated by one light-curing unit based on blue LEDs (Ultrablue III-DMC/Brazil) for 20 and 40 s of irradiation times. The Vickers hardness test was performed 24 h after the photo-activation until the standardized depth of 3 mm. The Vickers hardness mean values varied from 158.9 (+/- 0.81) to 81.4 (+/- 1.94) for P-60, from 138.7 (+/- 0.37) to 61.7 (+/- 0.24) for Herculite XRV, and from 107. 5 (+/- 0.81) to 44.5 (+/- 1.36) for Durafill composite resins photo-activated during 20 s for the 1st and 2nd mm, respectively. During 40 s of photo-activation, the Vickers hardness mean values were: from 181.0 (+/- 0.70) to 15.6 (+/- 0.29) for P-60, and from 161.8 (+/- 0.41) to 11.2 (+/- 0.17) for Herculite XRV composite resins, for the 1st and 3th mm, respectively. For Durafill composite resin the mean values varied from 120.1 (+/- 0.66) to 61.7 (+/- 0.20), for the 1st and 2nd mm, respectively. The variation coefficient (CV) was in the most of the groups lower than 1%, then the descriptive statistic analysis was used. The Vickers hardness mean values for Durafill were lower than P-60 and Herculite XRV composite resins for 20 and 40 s of irradiation time. The polymerization process was greatly affected by the composition of the composite resins.

Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.