On the Origin of Ideas : An Abductivist Approach to Discovery

The purpose of this study is to analyze and develop various forms of abduction as a means of conceptualizing processes of discovery. Abduction was originally presented by Charles S. Peirce (1839-1914) as a "weak", third main mode of inference -- besides deduction and induction -- one which, he proposed, is closely related to many kinds of cognitive processes, such as instincts, perception, practices and mediated activity in general. Both abduction and discovery are controversial issues in philosophy of science. It is often claimed that discovery cannot be a proper subject area for conceptual analysis and, accordingly, abduction cannot serve as a "logic of discovery". I argue, however, that abduction gives essential means for understanding processes of discovery although it cannot give rise to a manual or algorithm for making discoveries. In the first part of the study, I briefly present how the main trend in philosophy of science has, for a long time, been critical towards a systematic account of discovery. Various models have, however, been suggested. I outline a short history of abduction; first Peirce's evolving forms of his theory, and then later developments. Although abduction has not been a major area of research until quite recently, I review some critiques of it and look at the ways it has been analyzed, developed and used in various fields of research. Peirce's own writings and later developments, I argue, leave room for various subsequent interpretations of abduction. The second part of the study consists of six research articles. First I treat "classical" arguments against abduction as a logic of discovery. I show that by developing strategic aspects of abductive inference these arguments can be countered. Nowadays the term 'abduction' is often used as a synonym for the Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) model. I argue, however, that it is useful to distinguish between IBE ("Harmanian abduction") and "Hansonian abduction"; the latter concentrating on analyzing processes of discovery. The distinctions between loveliness and likeliness, and between potential and actual explanations are more fruitful within Hansonian abduction. I clarify the nature of abduction by using Peirce's distinction between three areas of "semeiotic": grammar, critic, and methodeutic. Grammar (emphasizing "Firstnesses" and iconicity) and methodeutic (i.e., a processual approach) especially, give new means for understanding abduction. Peirce himself held a controversial view that new abductive ideas are products of an instinct and an inference at the same time. I maintain that it is beneficial to make a clear distinction between abductive inference and abductive instinct, on the basis of which both can be developed further. Besides these, I analyze abduction as a part of distributed cognition which emphasizes a long-term interaction with the material, social and cultural environment as a source for abductive ideas. This approach suggests a "trialogical" model in which inquirers are fundamentally connected both to other inquirers and to the objects of inquiry. As for the classical Meno paradox about discovery, I show that abduction provides more than one answer. As my main example of abductive methodology, I analyze the process of Ignaz Semmelweis' research on childbed fever. A central basis for abduction is the claim that discovery is not a sequence of events governed only by processes of chance. Abduction treats those processes which both constrain and instigate the search for new ideas; starting from the use of clues as a starting point for discovery, but continuing in considerations like elegance and 'loveliness'. The study then continues a Peircean-Hansonian research programme by developing abduction as a way of analyzing processes of discovery.

Influence of Measured Characteristics on Price Received for Merino Wool from the Traprock Area of Southern Queensland

In this study of a commercial wool clip sold in the years 1991/92-1996/97, the effect of wool characteristics, (staple length, staple strength, fibre diameter, position of break, vegetable matter, hauteur, yield and coefficient of variation of staple length) on price was explored together with their effect on the ratio of price received per lot to the average weekly price (1994/95 basis) for clean wool of the same fibre diameter. Fibre diameter and where the point of break occurred had the most effect on price. As hauteur, staple length and yield increased, so did the price ratio but it decreased as the percentage of vegetable matter and the coefficient of variation of the staple length increased. The ratio of proceeds if all wool had been sold at average weekly market price, to proceeds if all wool had been 21µm or less, indicated little financial advantage over the six-year period as most sale lots were under 22µm. To raise the proceeds of sale above the proceeds estimated using average market price for each lot, the analyses suggested that hauteur, staple length and its coefficient of variation, could be considered, in addition to fibre diameter, when sourcing wethers for purchase. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Nuori konservatiivi : Tuure Junnila ja hänen poliittinen toimintansa vuoteen 1956

Tuure Junnila, PhD (1910-1999) was one of Finland's most renowned conservative politicians of the post-war period. Junnila is remembered primarily as a persistent opponent of Urho Kekkonen, a long-term Member of Parliament, a conspicuous opposition member and a prolific political writer. Junnila's ideologies and political views were conservative, and he is one of the most outstanding figures in the history of the National Coalition Party. Junnila also made an extensive career outside of politics, first as an economist and then as an executive of Finland's leading commercial bank Kansallis-Osake-Pankki. The Young Conservative is a partial biography written using traditional historical research methods, which examines Junnila's personal history and his activity in public life up to 1956. The study begins by investigating Junnila's background through his childhood, school years, university studies and early professional career. It also looks at Junnila's work as an economist and practical banker. Particular attention is paid to Junnila's political work, constantly focusing on the following five often overlapping areas: (1) economic policy, (2) domestic policy, (3) foreign and security policy, (4) Junnila and Urho Kekkonen, (5) Junnila, the Coalition Party and Finnish conservatism. In his economic policy, Junnila emphasised the importance of economic stability, opposed socialisation and the growth of public expenditure, defended the free market system and private entrepreneurship, and demanded tax cuts. This policy was very popular within the Coalition Party during the early 1950s, making Junnila the leading conservative economic politician of the time. In terms of domestic policy, Junnila demanded as early as the 1940s that a "third force" should be established in Finland to counterbalance the agrarian and labour parties by uniting conservative and liberal ideologies under the same roof. Foreign and security policy is the area of Junnila's political activity which is most clearly situated after the mid-1950s. However, Junnila's early speeches and writings already show a striving towards the unconditional neutrality modelled by Switzerland and Sweden and a strong emphasis on Finland's right to internal self-determination. Junnila, as did the Coalition Party as a whole, adopted a consistently critical approach towards Urho Kekkonen between 1951 and 1956, but this attitude was not as bluntly negative and all-round antagonistic as many previous studies have implied. Junnila was one of the leading Finnish conservatives of the early 1950s and in all essence his views were analogous to the general alignment of the Coalition Party at the time: conservative in ideology and general policy, and liberal in economic policy.

Stone Weathering in the Monastic Building Complex on Mountain of St Aaron in Petra, Jordan.

Since 1997 the Finnish Jabal Haroun Project (FJHP) has studied the ruins of the monastery and pilgrimage complex (Gr. oikos) of Aaron located on a plateau of the Mountain of Prophet Aaron, Jabal an-Nabi Harûn, ca. 5 km to the south-west of the UNESCO World Heritage site of Petra in Jordan. The state of conservation and the damaging processes affecting the stone structures of the site are studied in this M.A. thesis. The chapel was chosen as an example, as it represents the phasing and building materials of the entire site. The aim of this work is to act as a preliminary study with regards to the planning of long-term conservation at the site. The research is empirical in nature. The condition of the stones in the chapel walls was mapped using the Illustrated Glossary on Stone Deterioration, by the ICOMOS International Scientific Committee for Stone. This glossary combines several standards and systems of damage mapping used in the field. Climatic conditions (temperature and RH %) were monitored for one year (9/2005-8/2006) using a HOBO Microstation datalogger. The measurements were compared with contemporary measurements from the nearest weather station in Wadi Musa. Salts in the stones were studied by taking samples from the stone surfaces by scraping and with the “Paper Pulp”-method; with a poultice of wet cellulose fiber (Arbocel BC1000) and analyzing what main types of salts were to be found in the samples. The climatic conditions on the mountain were expected to be rapidly changing and to differ clearly from conditions in the neighboring areas. The rapid changes were confirmed, but the values did not differ as much as expected from those nearby: the 12 months monitored had average temperatures and were somewhat drier than average. Earlier research in the area has shown that the geological properties of the stone material influence its deterioration. The damage mapping showed clearly, that salts are also a major reason for stone weathering. The salt samples contained several salt combinations, whose behavior in the extremely unstable climatic conditions is difficult to predict. Detailed mapping and regular monitoring of especially the structures, that are going remain exposed, is recommended in this work.

Incorporating dugong habitats into the marine protected area design for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Queensland, Australia.

Dugong habitats were considered in the design for the new zoning network for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as part of the Representative Areas Program. One of the specific design guidelines developed as part of the biophysical operational principles recommended that 50% of all high priority dugong habitats should be incorporated in the network of no-take areas. The high priority dugong habitat incorporated in no-take protection increased from 1396 to 3476 km2 (or 16.9-42.0% of all identified sites). Although this increase in protection fell short of the recommended 50%, overall the level of protection afforded by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Zoning Plan 2003 increased for all the locations identified.

Integrating voice and data on SALAN: an experimental local area network

This paper is concerned with the integration of voice and data on an experimental local area network used by the School of Automation, of the Indian Institute of Science. SALAN (School of Automation Local Area Network) consists of a number of microprocessor-based communication nodes linked to a shared coaxial cable transmission medium. The communication nodes handle the various low-level functions associated with computer communication, and interface user data equipment to the network. SALAN at present provides a file transfer facility between an Intel Series III microcomputer development system and a Texas Instruments Model 990/4 microcomputer system. Further, a packet voice communication system has also been implemented on SALAN. The various aspects of the design and implementation of the above two utilities are discussed.

Cooking in the ungra area: Fuel efficiency, energy losses, and opportunities for reducing firewood consumption

Cooking efficiency and related fuel economy issues have been studied in a particular rural area of India. Following a description of the cooking practices and conditions in this locale, cooking efficiency is examined. A cooking efficiency of only 6% was found. The use of aluminium rather than clay pots results in an increased efficiency. In addition, cooking efficiency correlates very well with specific fuel consumption. The latter parameter is much simpler to analyse than cooking efficiency. The energy losses during cooking are examined in the second part of this case study. The major energy losses are heating of excess air, heat carried away by the combustion products, heat transmitted to the stove body and floor, and the chemical energy in charcoal residue. The energy loss due to the evaporation of cooking water is also significant because it represents about one-third of the heat reaching the pots.

Interfacial area measurement in a gas - liquid ejector for a sodium chloride - air system

Interfacial area measurement has been carried out experimentally by measuring the bubble size and holdup for air-sodium chloride solution system. The size of the bubble is predominantly established by the air hold up. High speed photography technique for bubble size measurement and gamma ray attenuation method for holdup measurements are followed. The measured values are compared with the theoretically predicted values. Interracial area as a function of the liquid flow rate and also its distance from the nozzle of the ejector has been reported in this paper. The results obtained for this non-reactive system are also compared with those of air-water system.

Multiresolution Area-based Fractal Dimension Estimation of Signals Applied to EEG Data

In this paper, we present an approach to estimate fractal complexity of discrete time signal waveforms based on computation of area bounded by sample points of the signal at different time resolutions. The slope of best straight line fit to the graph of log(A(rk)A / rk(2)) versus log(l/rk) is estimated, where A(rk) is the area computed at different time resolutions and rk time resolutions at which the area have been computed. The slope quantifies complexity of the signal and it is taken as an estimate of the fractal dimension (FD). The proposed approach is used to estimate the fractal dimension of parametric fractal signals with known fractal dimensions and the method has given accurate results. The estimation accuracy of the method is compared with that of Higuchi's and Sevcik's methods. The proposed method has given more accurate results when compared with that of Sevcik's method and the results are comparable to that of the Higuchi's method. The practical application of the complexity measure in detecting change in complexity of signals is discussed using real sleep electroencephalogram recordings from eight different subjects. The FD-based approach has shown good performance in discriminating different stages of sleep.

Determination of specific leaf area of some commercially useful sub-tropical hardwood species

Variability of specific leaf area (SLA) across taxa, sites and crown zones was determined for four sub-tropical hardwood species, Eucalyptus grandis, E. cloeziana, E. argophloia and Corymbia citriodora ssp. variegata, growing in south-eastern Queensland. Mean SLA values were stable amongst those taxa sampled on dry sites but varied markedly between provenances of E. grandis on a moist site. Mean SLA did not vary significantly with crown zone in any of these four sub-tropical eucalypts, which is in contrast to that observed in temperate species, both in Australia and overseas. A provenance of E. cloeziana from a moist coastal site exhibited the largest SLA of all taxa studied.

Molecular and serological detection of A. centrale- and A. marginale-infected cattle grazing within an endemic area

A reverse line blot hybridization (RLB) one-stage nested PCR (nPCR) for Anaplasma centrale and a nested PCR for Anaplasma marginale were used to detect infected cattle grazing within an endemic region in Israel. A novel set of PCR primers and oligonucleotide probes based on a 16S ribosomal RNA gene was designed for RLB detection of both Anaplasma species, and the performance of the molecular assays compared. The immunofluorescent antibody test (IFA) was used to detect antibodies to both Anaplasma species, whereas, a highly sensitive and specific competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) was used to detect antibodies in A. centrale-vaccinated cattle. The RLB and the nested PCR procedures showed bacteremia with sensitivity of 50 infected erythrocytes per milliliter. Up to 93% of the A. centrale vaccinates carried specific antibodies that were detected by cELISA, and up to 71% of the vaccinated cattle were found to be naturally infected with A. marginale according to the PCR and the RLB assays. Nevertheless, no severe outbreaks of A. marginale infection occurred among vaccinated herds in this endemic region. It appears that both, molecular tools and serology are useful for evaluation of the vaccine efficacy. In the light of wide natural field infection with A. marginale, strong recommendations to continue the A. centrale vaccination program regime will continue until a new generation of non-blood-based vaccine will be developed.

Salan: A microprocessor-based medium speed experimental local area network

In this paper the implementation and application of a microprocessor-based medium speed experimental local area network using a coaxial cable transmission medium are dealt with. A separate unidirectional control wire has been used in order to provide a collision-free and fair medium access arbitration. As an application of the network, the design of a packet voice communication system is discussed.

Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.

Zero tillage and nitrogen fertiliser application in wheat and barley on a Vertosol in a marginal cropping area of south-west Queensland

Winter cereal cropping is marginal in south-west Queensland because of low and variable rainfall and declining soil fertility. Increasing the soil water storage and the efficiency of water and nitrogen (N) use is essential for sustainable cereal production. The effect of zero tillage and N fertiliser application on these factors was evaluated in wheat and barley from 1996 to 2001 on a grey Vertosol. Annual rainfall was above average in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 and below average in 2000 and 2001. Due to drought, no crop was grown in the 2000 winter cropping season. Zero tillage improved fallow soil water storage by a mean value of 20 mm over 4 years, compared with conventional tillage. However, mean grain yield and gross margin of wheat were similar under conventional and zero tillage. Wheat grain yield and/or grain protein increased with N fertiliser application in all years, resulting in an increase in mean gross margin over 5 years from $86/ha, with no N fertiliser applied, to $250/ha, with N applied to target ≥13% grain protein. A similar increase in gross margin occurred in barley where N fertiliser was applied to target malting grade. The highest N fertiliser application rate in wheat resulted in a residual benefit to soil N supply for the following crop. This study has shown that profitable responses to N fertiliser addition in wheat and barley can be obtained on long-term cultivated Vertosols in south-west Queensland when soil water reserves at sowing are at least 60% of plant available water capacity, or rainfall during the growing season is above average. An integrative benchmark for improved N fertiliser management appears to be the gross margin/water use of ~$1/ha.mm. Greater fallow soil water storage or crop water use efficiency under zero tillage has the potential to improve winter cereal production in drier growing seasons than experienced during the period of this study.