Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

MODEL PARTITIONS AND COMPACT TEST CASE SUITES

We present a generalized test case generation method, called the G method. Although inspired by the W method, the G method, in contrast, allows for test case suite generation even in the absence of characterization sets for the specification models. Instead, the G method relies on knowledge about the index of certain equivalences induced at the implementation models. We show that the W method can be derived from the G method as a particular case. Moreover, we discuss some naturally occurring infinite classes of FSM models over which the G method generates test suites that are exponentially more compact than those produced by the W method.

A Poisson mixed model with nonnormal random effect distribution

In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis and numerical solution of the Peterlin viscoelastic model

Liquids and gasses form a vital part of nature. Many of these are complex fluids with non-Newtonian behaviour. We introduce a mathematical model describing the unsteady motion of an incompressible polymeric fluid. Each polymer molecule is treated as two beads connected by a spring. For the nonlinear spring force it is not possible to obtain a closed system of equations, unless we approximate the force law. The Peterlin approximation replaces the length of the spring by the length of the average spring. Consequently, the macroscopic dumbbell-based model for dilute polymer solutions is obtained. The model consists of the conservation of mass and momentum and time evolution of the symmetric positive definite conformation tensor, where the diffusive effects are taken into account. In two space dimensions we prove global in time existence of weak solutions. Assuming more regular data we show higher regularity and consequently uniqueness of the weak solution. For the Oseen-type Peterlin model we propose a linear pressure-stabilized characteristics finite element scheme. We derive the corresponding error estimates and we prove, for linear finite elements, the optimal first order accuracy. Theoretical error of the pressure-stabilized characteristic finite element scheme is confirmed by a series of numerical experiments.

Natural Language Checking with Program Checking Tools

Written text is an important component in the process of knowledge acquisition and communication. Poorly written text fails to deliver clear ideas to the reader no matter how revolutionary and ground-breaking these ideas are. Providing text with good writing style is essential to transfer ideas smoothly. While we have sophisticated tools to check for stylistic problems in program code, we do not apply the same techniques for written text. In this paper we present TextLint, a rule-based tool to check for common style errors in natural language. TextLint provides a structural model of written text and an extensible rule-based checking mechanism.

ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

Background The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. Results Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. Conclusion ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Approximate decoding approaches for network coded correlated data

This paper considers a framework where data from correlated sources are transmitted with the help of network coding in ad hoc network topologies. The correlated data are encoded independently at sensors and network coding is employed in the intermediate nodes in order to improve the data delivery performance. In such settings, we focus on the problem of reconstructing the sources at decoder when perfect decoding is not possible due to losses or bandwidth variations. We show that the source data similarity can be used at decoder to permit decoding based on a novel and simple approximate decoding scheme. We analyze the influence of the network coding parameters and in particular the size of finite coding fields on the decoding performance. We further determine the optimal field size that maximizes the expected decoding performance as a trade-off between information loss incurred by limiting the resolution of the source data and the error probability in the reconstructed data. Moreover, we show that the performance of the approximate decoding improves when the accuracy of the source model increases even with simple approximate decoding techniques. We provide illustrative examples showing how the proposed algorithm can be deployed in sensor networks and distributed imaging applications.

Imaging of pulmonary embolism and t-PA therapy effects using MDCT and liposomal iohexol blood pool agent – preliminary results in a rabbit model

Hypothesis and Objectives PEGylated liposomal blood pool contrast agents maintain contrast enhancement over several hours. This study aimed to evaluate (long-term) imaging of pulmonary arteries, comparing conventional iodinated contrast with a liposomal blood pool contrast agent. Secondly, visualization of the (real-time) therapeutic effects of tissue-Plasminogen Activator (t-PA) on pulmonary embolism (PE) was attempted. Materials and Methods Six rabbits (approximate 4 kg weight) had autologous blood clots injected through the superior vena cava. Imaging was performed using conventional contrast (iohexol, 350 mg I/ml, GE HealthCare, Princeton, NJ) at a dose of 1400 mgI per animal and after wash-out, animals were imaged using an iodinated liposomal blood pool agent (88 mg I/mL, dose 900 mgI/animal). Subsequently, five animals were injected with 2mg t-PA and imaging continued for up to 4 ½ hours. Results Both contrast agents identified PE in the pulmonary trunk and main pulmonary arteries in all rabbits. Liposomal blood pool agent yielded uniform enhancement, which remained relatively constant throughout the experiments. Conventional agents exhibited non uniform opacification and rapid clearance post injection. Three out of six rabbits had mistimed bolus injections, requiring repeat injections. Following t-PA, Pulmonary embolus volume (central to segmental) decreased in four of five treated rabbits (range 10–57%, mean 42%). One animal showed no response to t-PA. Conclusions Liposomal blood pool agents effectively identified acute PE without need for re-injection. PE resolution following t-PA was quantifiable over several hours. Blood pool agents offer the potential for repeated imaging procedures without need for repeated (nephrotoxic) contrast injections

Abstraction-carrying code: a model for mobile code safety

Proof-Carrying Code (PCC) is a general approach to mobile code safety in which programs are augmented with a certificate (or proof). The intended benefit is that the program consumer can locally validate the certificate w.r.t. the "untrustcd" program by means of a certificate checker a process which should be much simpler, efficient, and automatic than generating the original proof. The practical uptake of PCC greatly depends on the existence of a variety of enabling technologies which allow both proving programs correct and replacing a costly verification process by an efficient checking proceduri on th( consumer side. In this work we propose Abstraction- Carrying Code (ACC), a novel approach which uses abstract interpretation as enabling technology. We argue that the large body of applications of abstract interpretation to program verification is amenable to the overall PCC scheme. In particular, we rely on an expressive class of safely policies which can be defined over different abstract domains. We use an abstraction (or abstract model) of the program computed by standard static analyzers as a certificate. The validity of the abstraction on ihe consumer side is checked in a single pass by a very efficient and specialized abstract-interpreter. We believe that ACC brings the expressiveness, flexibility and automation which is inherent in abstract interpretation techniques to the area of mobile code safety.

Context-sensitive multivariant assertion checking in modular programs

We propose a modular, assertion-based system for verification and debugging of large logic programs, together with several interesting models for checking assertions statically in modular programs, each with different characteristics and representing different trade-offs. Our proposal is a modular and multivariant extensión of our previously proposed abstract assertion checking model and we also report on its implementation in the CiaoPP system. In our approach, the specification of the program, given by a set of assertions, may be partial, instead of the complete specification required by raditional verification systems. Also, the system can deal with properties which cannot always be determined at compile-time. As a result, the proposed system needs to work with safe approximations: all assertions proved correct are guaranteed to be valid and all errors actual errors. The use of modular, context-sensitive static analyzers also allows us to introduce a new distinction between assertions checked in a particular context or checked in general.

Analytic model of a cache-only memory architecture

An approximate analytic model of a shared memory multiprocessor with a Cache Only Memory Architecture (COMA), the busbased Data Difussion Machine (DDM), is presented and validated. It describes the timing and interference in the system as a function of the hardware, the protocols, the topology and the workload. Model results have been compared to results from an independent simulator. The comparison shows good model accuracy specially for non-saturated systems, where the errors in response times and device utilizations are independent of the number of processors and remain below 10% in 90% of the simulations. Therefore, the model can be used as an average performance prediction tool that avoids expensive simulations in the design of systems with many processors.