Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

An Evaluation of Local Feature Combiners for Robot Visual Localization

In the last decade, local image features have been widely used in robot visual localization. To assess image similarity, a strategy exploiting these features compares raw descriptors extracted from the current image to those in the models of places. This paper addresses the ensuing step in this process, where a combining function must be used to aggregate results and assign each place a score. Casting the problem in the multiple classifier systems framework, we compare several candidate combiners with respect to their performance in the visual localization task. A deeper insight into the potential of the sum and product combiners is provided by testing two extensions of these algebraic rules: threshold and weighted modifications. In addition, a voting method, previously used in robot visual localization, is assessed. All combiners are tested on a visual localization task, carried out on a public dataset. It is experimentally demonstrated that the sum rule extensions globally achieve the best performance. The voting method, whilst competitive to the algebraic rules in their standard form, is shown to be outperformed by both their modified versions.

Recomendações personalizadas de alunos em sistemas de hipermédia adaptativa educacional usando Data Mining

O aumento de tecnologias disponíveis na Web favoreceu o aparecimento de diversas formas de informação, recursos e serviços. Este aumento aliado à constante necessidade de formação e evolução das pessoas, quer a nível pessoal como profissional, incentivou o desenvolvimento área de sistemas de hipermédia adaptativa educacional - SHAE. Estes sistemas têm a capacidade de adaptar o ensino consoante o modelo do aluno, características pessoais, necessidades, entre outros aspetos. Os SHAE permitiram introduzir mudanças relativamente à forma de ensino, passando do ensino tradicional que se restringia apenas ao uso de livros escolares até à utilização de ferramentas informáticas que através do acesso à internet disponibilizam material didático, privilegiando o ensino individualizado. Os SHAE geram grande volume de dados, informação contida no modelo do aluno e todos os dados relativos ao processo de aprendizagem de cada aluno. Facilmente estes dados são ignorados e não se procede a uma análise cuidada que permita melhorar o conhecimento do comportamento dos alunos durante o processo de ensino, alterando a forma de aprendizagem de acordo com o aluno e favorecendo a melhoria dos resultados obtidos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar e aplicar algumas técnicas de Data Mining a um SHAE, PCMAT - Mathematics Collaborative Educational System. A aplicação destas técnicas deram origem a modelos de dados que transformaram os dados em informações úteis e compreensíveis, essenciais para a geração de novos perfis de alunos, padrões de comportamento de alunos, regras de adaptação e pedagógicas. Neste trabalho foram criados alguns modelos de dados recorrendo à técnica de Data Mining de classificação, abordando diferentes algoritmos. Os resultados obtidos permitirão definir novas regras de adaptação e padrões de comportamento dos alunos, poderá melhorar o processo de aprendizagem disponível num SHAE.

Metodologia BIM, aplicada à preparação, controlo e gestão de obra

O âmbito deste trabalho envolve o teste do modelo BIM numa obra em construção pela Mota-Engil – Engenharia, na extração experimental de peças desenhadas de preparação e apoio à execução de obra. No capítulo 1 deste relatório são definidos o âmbito e os objetivos deste trabalho, é feito um enquadramento histórico do tema e abordados conceitos e atividades da preparação de obra, na sua forma tradicional. O estado do conhecimento da preparação de obras e mais em concreto da tecnologia BIM a nível nacional e internacional é abordado no capítulo 2. Nesse sentido procura-se definir os conceitos principais inerentes a esta nova metodologia, que passa por identificar e caraterizar a tecnologia envolvida e o seu nível de desenvolvimento. Com suporte em casos práticos de preparação de obra na sua forma tradicional, identificados e desenvolvidos no capítulo 3, foi compilado um processo tipo de peças desenhadas de suporte identificadas e caracterizadas no capítulo 4, frequentes e comuns à execução de diversos tipos de obras de edifícios. Assente na compilação baseada em casos práticos e no estudo do projeto de execução da empreitada que sustenta o presente trabalho, com base no qual o modelo BIM foi concebido, identificou-se um conjunto de peças desenhadas de preparação e apoio à execução dos trabalhos, em 2D, a extrair do modelo. No capítulo 5, é feita uma descrição do modo como foi estudado o projeto da obra, com evidência para os fatores mais relevantes, especificando os desenhos a extrair. Suportada pelo programa de modelação ArchiCAD, a extração do conjunto de desenhos identificados anteriormente foi conseguida com recurso às funcionalidades disponíveis no software, que permite a criação de desenhos 2D atualizáveis ou não automaticamente a partir do modelo. Qualquer alteração introduzida no modelo virtual é automaticamente atualizada nos desenhos bidimensionais, caso o utilizador assim o pretenda. Ao longo desse trabalho foram detetados e analisados os condicionalismos inerentes ao processo de extração, referidos no capítulo 6, para estabelecimento de regras de modelação padrão a adotar em futuras empreitadas, que possam simplificar a obtenção dos elementos desenhados de preparação necessários à sua execução. No ponto 6.3 são identificadas melhorias a introduzir no modelo. Em conclusão no capítulo 7 são abordadas especificidades do setor da construção que sustentam e evidenciam cada vez mais a necessidade de utilizar as novas tecnologias com vista à adoção de práticas e ferramentas padrão de apoio à execução de obras. Sendo a tecnologia BIM, transversal a todo o setor, a sua utilização com regras padrão na conceção dos modelos e na extração de dados, potencia a otimização dos custos, do tempo, dos recursos e da qualidade final de um empreendimento, ao longo de todo o seu ciclo de vida, para além de apoiar com elevada fiabilidade as tomadas de decisão ao longo desse período. A tecnologia BIM, possibilita a antevisão do edifício a construir com um elevado grau de pormenor, com todas as vantagens que daí advêm.

Ordering Policy Rules with an Unconditional Welfare Measure

The unconditional expectation of social welfare is often used to assess alternative macroeconomic policy rules in applied quantitative research. It is shown that it is generally possible to derive a linear - quadratic problem that approximates the exact non-linear problem where the unconditional expectation of the objective is maximised and the steady-state is distorted. Thus, the measure of pol icy performance is a linear combinat ion of second moments of economic variables which is relatively easy to compute numerically, and can be used to rank alternative policy rules. The approach is applied to a simple Calvo-type model under various monetary policy rules.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

La gestion des services environnementaux: entre règles et régulation négociée. Six études de cas de services forestiers pour la production d'eau potable dans trois pays

Cette thèse est construite en quatre parties : trois annexes qui présentent six études de cas (env. 800 pages), précédées par une analyse transversale, plus synthétique (env. 150 pages), dont traite ce résumé. Chaque annexe contient une synthèse détaillée des études de cas. Cette thèse aborde la « gestion des ressources naturelles » en affirmant d'emblée que l'appellation est inappropriée, car ce ne sont pas les ressources qui sont gérées, mais leurs usages. Il s'agit donc d'identifier et d'analyser ce qui influence les comportements humains en lien avec la ressource. Cette affirmation fonde la perspective des sciences sociales sur la gestion des ressources naturelles, dans laquelle s'inscrit cette thèse. L'approche néo-institutionnaliste considère que les usages sont influencés par des institutions, qui sont elles-mêmes influencées par les usagers. Ces institutions sont des constructions humaines qui composent le contexte institutionnel dans lequel les acteurs décident de leurs usages (abattre un arbre, prélever de l'eau, etc.). Les usages des ressources ne sont donc jamais libres et il s'agit de comprendre comment ces règles du jeu influencent les pratiques. Elles sont nombreuses, interdépendantes et forment la trame sur laquelle se décident les usages. Pour saisir cette complexité, l'auteur applique le cadre d'analyse des régimes institutionnels des ressources (RIR) qui se limite à l'analyse de deux types de droits d'usages : ceux issues des règles de la propriété (titres de propriété, servitudes, etc.) et ceux issus des politiques publiques (lois, ordonnances, etc.). Le RIR permet d'identifier un « régime institutionnel », spécifique à la ressource étudiée, dont les évolutions peuvent être comparées dans le temps ou entre plusieurs lieux. Dans cette recherche, ce cadre d'analyse a été appliqué au même objet - la gestion forestière dans les zones de captage d'eau souterraine destinée au réseau public - dans trois pays : en France, en Suisse et en Indonésie. Trois années de recherche de terrain ont permis à l'auteur de s'intéresser non seulement aux règles prédéterminées (la réglementation), mais aussi aux règles effectivement activées sur le terrain (la régulation) par les acteurs rencontrés. Les études de cas montrent que les règles prévues sont inégalement activées et que les acteurs privilégient parfois la négociation directe pour résoudre leurs rivalités d'usages, à la place d'invoquer leurs droits acquis. Ce constat conduit l'auteur à proposer un élargissement de la focale du RIR, qui constitue le coeur de sa thèse. On ne s'intéresse plus seulement à ce qui « est » régulé, mais aussi à ce qui ne l'« est pas » et qui échappe à l'application classique du RIR. Ce renversement de perspective est crucial pour comprendre les usages concrets des ressources dans les régimes peu intégrés, où les pratiques s'expliquent davantage par la marge de manoeuvre laissée aux acteurs que par les règles prédéterminées. Cette relecture, testée avec succès dans cette thèse, permet d'intégrer la marge de manoeuvre à l'analyse au moyen du RIR. Elle se concrétise par l'identification des lacunes et incohérences dans les régimes institutionnels étudiés. Le champ d'application du RIR s'en trouve élargi et sa vulgarisation pour des non-spécialistes est facilitée, notamment pour les environnementalistes. La complémentarité entre les approches s'en trouve renforcée. Les résultats montrent deux choses : premièrement les acteurs disposent toujours d'une marge de manoeuvre pour négocier des régulations ponctuelles, qui sont autant d'alternatives à l'application des règles prévues. Deuxièmement, la conclusion d'accords issus de la négociation bi-/multilatérale dépend directement de la marge de manoeuvre laissée par le contexte institutionnel. Ceci explique pourquoi la négociation entre les propriétaires forestiers et les exploitants de captages s'imposent en Indonésie, est envisageable en France, mais n'aboutit pas en Suisse. Les nombreuses tentatives infructueuses de mise en oeuvre de solutions négociées, notamment sous forme de paiements pour services environnementaux (PSE), trouvent ici une explication. - This thesis (written in French) is built in four parts: three annexes that present six case studies (approx. 800 pages), preceded by a transverse, more conceptual analysis (approx. 150 pages), which this summary is about. Each annexe contains a detailed summary of the case studies. 'Natural resource management' is an inappropriate designation because it is not the resources that are managed but the uses made of them, therefore this thesis addresses the identification and analysis of the influences on human behaviour in relation to the resource. This statement roots the social sciences perspective on the management of natural resources, in which this thesis fits. A neoinstitutionalist approach considers that the uses are influenced by institutions, which are themselves influenced by users. These institutions are human constructions that form the institutional context in which the actors decide on the use of resources (felling a tree, collecting water, etc.). Thus, the uses of resources are never independent from institutional influences and it becomes necessary to understand how these rules of the game affect practices. They are numerous, interrelated and form the basis for the uses of resources. To understand this complexity, the author applies the institutional regime resource framework (IRR) which limits the analysis to two types of use rights: those resulting from the property rights (deeds, easements, etc.) and those from public policies (laws, ordinances, etc.). The IRR identifies an 'institutional regime', specific to the resource, from which developments can be compared over time or between several places. In this research, this analytical framework has been applied to the same topic - forest management in the recharging areas of groundwater piped for public supply - in three countries: France, Switzerland and Indonesia. Three years of field research allow the author to look not only at predetermined rules (rules), but also at regulations that are actually activated on the ground (rules-in-use). The case studies show that the predetermined rules are unevenly applied and that sometimes actors favour direct negotiation to resolve their rivalry of uses, instead of invoking their vested rights. From this observation the author proposes an enlargement of the IRR's scope, forming the core of his thesis. The interest covers not only what 'is' regulated, but what 'is not' and so is beyond the classical application of the IRR. This shift in perspective is crucial to understand the concrete uses of resources in poorly integrated regimes, where practices are explained by the margin of manoeuvre left to the actors rather than predetermined rules. This reinterpretation, tested successfully in this research, allows the margin of manoeuvre to be integrated in the analysis using the IRR and is made concrete by the identification of gaps and inconsistencies in the investigated institutional context. The new interpretation of the IRR in this thesis complements and enhances its classical application. In particular, its use and understanding by non-specialists, especially environmentalists, is facilitated. The results show two things: first the actors always have leeway to negotiate ad hoc regulations, which are alternatives to the application of the predefined rules. Second, the conclusion of bi/multilateral negotiated agreements depends directly on the leeway left by the institutional context. This explains why the negotiation between forest owners and operators of water catchments is needed in Indonesia, is possible in France, but does not succeed in Switzerland. This offers an explanation for many unsuccessful attempts to implement negotiated solutions, notably payments for environmental services (PES).

IPH Response to Dept of Justice and Equality Review of the Code of Practice on the Sale and Display of Alcohol in Mixed Trading Premises

IPH responded to the Department of Justice, Equality and Defence review of the voluntary Code of Practice for the display and sale of alcohol in supermarkets, convenience stores and similar mixed trading outlets. The voluntary Code was introduced in 2008 as an alternative to the statutory rules for structural separation of alcohol products in mixed trading outlets which are set out in section 9 of the Intoxicating Liquor Act 2008. Interested bodies and individuals were invited to submit comments on the Compliance Report for 2011 and on the effectiveness of the voluntary approach to structural separation by 20th December 2011. The Minister said he intended to also seek the views of the Minister for Health and the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Justice, Defence and Equality before reaching any decision on whether to bring the statutory rules in the 2008 Act into operation.

Early functional differentiation in the chick embryonic disc: interaction between mechanical activity and extracellular matrix

The mechanical behaviour of ectodermal cells in the area opaca and the supracellular organization of fibronectin in the adjacent extracellular matrix were studied in whole chick blastoderms developing in vitro. The pattern of spontaneous mechanical activity and its modification by immunoglobulins against fibronectin were determined using a real-time image-analysis system. The pattern of fibronectin was studied using immunocytochemical techniques. It was found that the ectodermal cells in the area opaca actively develop a radially oriented contraction, which leads to a distension of the area pellucida from which the embryo develops. Abnormally increased tension resulted in perturbations of gastrulation and neurulation. An optimized mechanical equilibrium within the blastoderm seems to be necessary for normal development. Anti-fibronectin antibodies applied to the basal side of the blastoderm led rapidly and reversibly to an increase of tension in the contracted cells. This observation indicates that modifications of the extracellular matrix can be transmitted to cytoskeletal elements within adjacent cells. The extracellular matrix of the area opaca contains fibronectin arranged in radially oriented fibrils. This orientation corresponds to the direction of migration of the mesodermal cells. Interestingly, the radial pattern of fibronectin is found in the regions where the ectodermal cells are contracted and develop radially oriented forces. This observation suggests that the supracellular assembly of the extracellular materials could be influenced by the mechanical activity of adjacent cells. Possible modulations of the supracellular organization of extracellular matrix by other factors, e.g. diffusible metabolites, is also discussed. The presence of characteristically organized extracellular matrix components, of spatially differentiated cell activities and of reciprocal interactions between them makes the young chick blastoderm an excellent system for physiological studies of the coordinated cellular activities that lead to changes in form, complexity and function.

Spain in Europe 2004-2008

In March of 2004, the Observatory of European Foreign Policy published a special monograph about Spain in Europe (1996-2004) in digital format. The objective of the monograph was to analyse Spain’s foreign policy agenda and strategy during the period of José María Aznar’s presidency. As the title suggests, one of the initial suppositions of the analysis is the Europeanization of Spanish foreign activities. Is that how it was? Did Aznar’s Spain see the world and relate to it through Brussels? The publication was well received, considering the number of visits received and above all the institutions which asked to link the publication to their web pages. Among these, the EUobserver published the introduction to the piece in English titled Aznar: thinking locally, acting in Europe (described by the EUobserver as a paper of utmost importance). The fact that the elections were held three days after the tragic events of the 11th of March dramatically increased interest in Spain and the implications for Europe. This publication is the second of its type, in this case analysing the period of the Zapatero government (2004-2008). Once again the starting premise (the Europeanization of the agenda and the methods employed) has been considered by the analysts. And once again the articles collected in this publication serve to “triangulate” the analysis. Spain and Europe are two vertices (more or less distant, in essence and in form) which the authors handle in their analysis of the case (third vertex).

Characterization and simulation of a CdTe detector for use in PET

The Voxel Imaging PET (VIP) Path nder project got the 4 year European Research Council FP7 grant in 2010 to prove the feasibility of using CdTe detectors in a novel conceptual design of PET scanner. The work presented in this thesis is a part of the VIP project and consists of, on the one hand, the characterization of a CdTe detector in terms of energy resolution and coincidence time resolution and, on the other hand, the simulation of the setup with the single detector in order to extend the results to the full PET scanner. An energy resolution of 0.98% at 511 keV with a bias voltage of 1000 V/mm has been measured at low temperature T=-8 ºC. The coincidence time distribution of two twin detectors has been found to be as low as 6 ns FWHM for events with energies above 500 keV under the same temperature and bias conditions. The measured energy and time resolution values are compatible with similar ndings available in the literature and prove the excellent potential of CdTe for PET applications. This results have been presented in form of a poster contribution at the IEEE NSS/MIC & RTSD 2011 conference in October 2011 in Valencia and at the iWoRID 2012 conference in July 2012 in Coimbra, Portugal. They have been also submitted for publication to "Journal of Instrumentation (JINST)" in September 2012.

Structural changes in the US economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?

This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the transmission of policy disturbances. Inflation persistence is only partly a monetary phenomena. Variations in the systematic component of policy have limited effects on the dynamics of output and inflation. Results are robust to alterations in the auxiliary assumptions.

Health and (other) Asset Holdings

The empirical literature on the asset allocation and medical expenditures of U.S. households consistently shows that risky portfolio shares are increasing in both wealth and health whereas health investment shares are decreasing in these same variables. Despite this evidence, most of the existing models treat financial and health-related choices separately. This paper bridges this gap by proposing a tractable framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption, portfolio and health investments. We solve for the optimal rules in closed form and show that the model can theoretically reproduce the empirical facts. Capitalizing on this closed-form solution, we perform a structural estimation of the model on HRS data. Our parameter estimates are reasonable and confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model.

Efficient interval scoring rules

Scoring rules that elicit an entire belief distribution through the elicitation of point beliefsare time-consuming and demand considerable cognitive e¤ort. Moreover, the results are validonly when agents are risk-neutral or when one uses probabilistic rules. We investigate a classof rules in which the agent has to choose an interval and is rewarded (deterministically) onthe basis of the chosen interval and the realization of the random variable. We formulatean e¢ ciency criterion for such rules and present a speci.c interval scoring rule. For single-peaked beliefs, our rule gives information about both the location and the dispersion of thebelief distribution. These results hold for all concave utility functions.