Análise de risco em organizações: caso de estudo

Dissertação Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica no perfil de Manutenção e Produção

Academic social network in EHES

This paper presents the foundations of an Academic Social Network (ASN) focusing the Bologna Declaration and the Bologna Process (BP) mobility issues using ontological support. An ASN will permit students to share commons academic interests, preferences and mobility paths in the European Higher Education Space (EHES). The description of the conceptual support is ontology based allowing knowledge sharing and reuse. An approach is presented by merging Academic Ontology to Support the Bologna Mobility Process with Friend of a Friend ontology. The resulting ontology supports the student mobility profile in the ASN. The strategies to make available, in the network, knowledge about mobility issues, are presented including knowledge discovery and simulation approaches to cover student's mobility scenarios for BP.

A Review on the Characterization of Signals and Systems by Power Law Distributions

Power laws, also known as Pareto-like laws or Zipf-like laws, are commonly used to explain a variety of real world distinct phenomena, often described merely by the produced signals. In this paper, we study twelve cases, namely worldwide technological accidents, the annual revenue of America׳s largest private companies, the number of inhabitants in America׳s largest cities, the magnitude of earthquakes with minimum moment magnitude equal to 4, the total burned area in forest fires occurred in Portugal, the net worth of the richer people in America, the frequency of occurrence of words in the novel Ulysses, by James Joyce, the total number of deaths in worldwide terrorist attacks, the number of linking root domains of the top internet domains, the number of linking root domains of the top internet pages, the total number of human victims of tornadoes occurred in the U.S., and the number of inhabitants in the 60 most populated countries. The results demonstrate the emergence of statistical characteristics, very close to a power law behavior. Furthermore, the parametric characterization reveals complex relationships present at higher level of description.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Opening Pousada da Serra da Estrela in Covilhã: A two-way impact analysis - interacting with private agents

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Psychological safety, authentic leadership and social networks : A psycho-structural approach to the study of groups

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia na área de especialização de Psicologia das Organizações apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Asociatividad y redes interorganizacionales. El caso de la Red Social de la 5ta. Associativity and interorganizational networks. The case of the Social Network of "la 5ta".

En investigaciones anteriores el equipo trabajó sobre el concepto de asociatividad en las prácticas de emprendimientos socioeconómicos y cooperativas surgidos luego de la crisis del 2001 en Argentina. Las conclusiones de dichas investigaciones se agrupan en dos categorías. La primera identifica como un obstáculo importante para generar y sostener la asociatividad, al elevado grado de desconfianza y fragmentación del tejido social, que dificulta la conformación de formas organizacionales asociativas más allá de las emprendidas por personas vinculadas por lazos afectivos previos. La segunda categoría de conclusiones corresponde a las dificultadas asociadas a los niveles de formalidad requeridos por las políticas públicas que promueven la constitución de formas asociativas.Sobre estos antecedentes se propone el análisis otras formas asociativas de mayor envergadura tales como las redes interorganizacionales, que superan la asociatividad entre individuos e incluyen a diversas organizaciones (de la sociedad civil, actores estatales, instituciones educativas, cooperativas, etc.). Estas redes, que incluyen a las formas asociativas estudiadas anteriormente por el equipo, se diferencian de ellas en que los vínculos trascienden el contexto primario de los actores, no necesariamente se asientan sobre estructuras de coordinación formales y cuentan con una cierta trayectoria de construcción colectiva que sirve de base y sustento a proyectos sociales en sectores de alta vulnerabilidad. El objetivo de la investigación es describir y analizar las características de la asociatividad en una de estas redes existente en la ciudad de Córdoba, en especial en lo que hace al diseño organizacional y funcionamiento asociativo, identificando el proceso de incidencia de la misma en políticas públicas y los factores que favorecen y obstaculizan ese proceso. La metodología consiste en la construcción conjunta, con los propios actores, de los problemas de investigación para desde allí comprender y sistematizar sus propias prácticas con el objetivo de generar un conocimiento capaz de potenciar su dinámica y enriquecer la construcción teórica en torno a estas formas organizacionales. La red elegida es la Red Social de la 5ta, compuesta por alrededor de 30 organizaciones entre las que se cuentan OSC y organismos públicos de distintos niveles (provincial y municipal). Funciona desde el año 1998 en la zona sudeste de la ciudad de Córdoba uno de los sectores que concentra los índices más altos de pobreza y morbilidad y mortalidad materno infantil de la ciudad. El deterioro de la situación económica y el progresivo abandono del Estado han convertido gran parte de la zona donde se articula la Red en una zona marginal, adjudicataria en el imaginario público del estigma de peligrosidad. En este marco, el objetivo de la Red es mejorar a calidad de vida de la comunidad a través de acciones conjuntas y del establecimiento de acuerdos con otros actores institucionales.

The Spread of free-riding behavior in a social network

We study a model where agents, located in a social network, decide whether to exert effort or not in experimenting with a new technology (or acquiring a new skill, innovating, etc.). We assume that agents have strong incentives to free ride on their neighbors' effort decisions. In the static version of the model efforts are chosen simultaneously. In equilibrium, agents exerting effort are never connected with each other and all other agents are connected with at least one agent exerting effort. We propose a mean-field dynamics in which agents choose in each period the best response to the last period's decisions of their neighbors. We characterize the equilibrium of such a dynamics and show how the pattern of free riders in the network depends on properties of the connectivity distribution.

Okun’s law – A meta analysis

This paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both sub-samples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both sub-samples. Third, bias-corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are -0.25 for the unemployment sub-sample and -0.61 for the output-sub sample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are -0.40 and -1.02 for the unemployment and the output-sub samples respectively.

L'apport de la trace matérielle dans l'enquête criminelle: évaluation de la contribution des liens chimiques issus du profilage de produits stupéfiants par l'analyse des réseaux sociaux

La trace matérielle dispose d'un potentiel incomparable pour mettre en relation des indices et occupe souvent une place centrale lors du procès pénal (Ribaux et Margot, 2008). Au delà de son rôle élémentaire en tant qu'élément de preuve, la trace matérielle véhicule de nombreuses autres informations encore trop peu exploitées en matière d'investigation ou pour servir de base au renseignement criminel. C'est particulièrement le cas des liens chimiques découverts grâce au profilage physico-chimique de produits stupéfiants saisis par les autorités. Le but de ce travail est d'estimer l'apport de ces liens chimiques à la perception de la structure des réseaux criminels. Pour ce faire, nous nous appuyons sur des modèles d'analyse des réseaux sociaux (SNA, Social Network Analysis). Ces modèles sont toujours plus utilisés pour traiter des affaires qui relèvent de la criminalité organisée, notamment pour comprendre la structure et la dynamique de ces réseaux d'acteurs. L'analyse des réseaux sociaux (SNA) procède par le calcul de différents indicateurs pour mettre en évidence des éléments pertinents de leur structure et leurs acteurs clés. Par exemple, l'identification des vulnérabilités de l'organisation et des mécanismes mis en place par les acteurs pourra orienter les actions policières. Cette recherche se base sur une enquête concernant un réseau international de trafic de produits stupéfiants. En plus des autres informations d'enquête traditionnellement disponibles, des liens chimiques ont été mis en évidence par le profilage de l'héroïne saisie à différents endroits et périodes, puis utilisés par les enquêteurs. Cette recherche consiste à utiliser les indicateurs SNA pour évaluer l'influence de ces liens chimiques sur la structure de ce réseau construit à partir des autres indices. Les premiers résultats montrent que les liens chimiques sont cohérents avec les autres types de relations, et qu'ils tendent, à eux seuls, à mettre en évidence les positions centrales de certains acteurs clés. De plus, l'intégration de ces liens renforce les centralités de certains acteurs et permet ainsi de les considérer de manière plus centrale qu'ils ne l'étaient auparavant. Enfin, ces premiers résultats laissent entrevoir des perspectives intéressantes notamment au travers de la pondération de ces relations afin d'évaluer de manière plus globale l'apport du potentiel informatif de ce type de renseignement.

An approximate solution method for boundary layer flow of a power law fluid over a flat plate

The work in this paper deals with the development of momentum and thermal boundary layers when a power law fluid flows over a flat plate. At the plate we impose either constant temperature, constant flux or a Newton cooling condition. The problem is analysed using similarity solutions, integral momentum and energy equations and an approximation technique which is a form of the Heat Balance Integral Method. The fluid properties are assumed to be independent of temperature, hence the momentum equation uncouples from the thermal problem. We first derive the similarity equations for the velocity and present exact solutions for the case where the power law index n = 2. The similarity solutions are used to validate the new approximation method. This new technique is then applied to the thermal boundary layer, where a similarity solution can only be obtained for the case n = 1.

Brain network analysis of patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (TLE) suffer from widespread subtle white matter abnormalities and abnormal functional connectivity extending beyond the affected lobe, as revealed by Diffusion Tensor MR Imaging, volumetric and functional MRI studies. Diffusion Spectrum Imaging (DSI) is a diffusion imaging technique with high angular resolution for improving the mapping of white matter pathways. In this study, we used DSI, connectivity matrices and topological measures to investigate how the alteration in structural connectivity influences whole brain structural networks. Eleven patients with right-sided TLE and hippocampal sclerosis and 18 controls underwent our DSI protocol at 3T. The cortical and subcortical grey matters were parcellated into 86 regions of interest and the connectivity between every region pair was estimated using global tractography and a connectivity matrix (the adjacency matrix of the structural network). We then compared the networks of patients and controls using topological measures. In patients, we found a higher characteristic path length and a lower clustering coefficient compared to controls. Local measures at node level of the clustering and efficiency showed a significant difference after a multiple comparison correction (Bonferroni). These significant nodes were located within as well outside the temporal lobe, and the localisation of most of them was consistent with regions known to be part of epileptic networks in TLE. Our results show altered connectivity patterns that are concordant with the mapping of functional epileptic networks in patients with TLE. Further studies are needed to establish the relevance of these findings for the propagation of epileptic activity, cognitive deficits in medial TLE and outcome of epilepsy surgery in individual patients.

La sostenibilidad del sistema sanitario desde una perspectiva de redes sociales: una propuesta para la promoción de hábitos saludables y apoyo social

The search of new health management formulas focused to give wide services is one of the priorities of our present health policies. Those formulas examine the optimization of the links between the main actors involved in public health, ie, users, professionals, local socio-political and corporate agents. This paper is aimed to introduce the Social Network Analysis as a method for analyzing, measuring and interpreting those connections. The knowledge of people's relationships (what is called social networks) in the field of public health is becoming increasingly important at an international level. In fact, countries such as UK, Netherlands, Italy, Australia and U.S. are looking formulas to apply this knowledge to their health departments. With this work we show the utility of the ARS on topics related to sustainability of the health system, particularly those related with health habits and social support, topics included in the 2020 health strategies that underline the importance of the collaborative aspects in networks.