Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide : a modelling study

Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide: A modelling study.rnrnThis study aims at an improved understanding of the stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the carbon monoxide (CO) in the global atmosphere by means of numerical simulations. At first, a new kinetic chemistry tagging technique for the most complete parameterisation of isotope effects has been introduced into the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. Incorporated into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model, an explicit treatment of the isotope effects on the global scale is now possible. The expanded model system has been applied to simulate the chemical system containing up to five isotopologues of all carbon- and oxygen-bearing species, which ultimately determine the ��13C, ��18O and ��17O isotopic signatures of atmospheric CO. As model input, a new stable isotope-inclusive emission inventory for the relevant trace gases has been compiled. The uncertainties of the emission estimates and of the resulting simulated mixing and isotope ratios have been analysed. The simulated CO mixing and stable isotope ratios have been compared to in-situ measurements from ground-based observatories and from the civil-aircraft-mounted CARIBIC���1 measurement platform.rnrnThe systematically underestimated 13CO/12CO ratios of earlier, simplified modelling studies can now be partly explained. The EMAC simulations do not support the inferences of those studies, which suggest for CO a reduced input of the highly depleted in 13C methane oxidation source. In particular, a high average yield of 0.94 CO per reacted methane (CH4) molecule is simulated in the troposphere, to a large extent due to the competition between the deposition and convective transport processes affecting the CH4 to CO reaction chain intermediates. None of the other factors, assumed or disregarded in previous studies, however hypothesised to have the potential in enriching tropospheric CO in 13C, were found significant when explicitly simulated. The inaccurate surface emissions, likely underestimated over East Asia, are responsible for roughly half of the discrepancies between the simulated and observed 13CO in the northern hemisphere (NH), whereas the remote southern hemisphere (SH) compositions suggest an underestimated fractionation during the oxidation of CO by the hydroxyl radical (OH). A reanalysis of the kinetic isotope effect (KIE) in this reaction contrasts the conventional assumption of a mere pressure dependence, and instead suggests an additional temperature dependence of the 13C KIE, which is driven by changes in the partitioning of the reaction exit channels. This result is yet to be confirmed in the laboratory.rnrnApart from 13CO, for the first time the atmospheric distribution of the oxygen mass-independent fractionation (MIF) in CO, ��17O, has been consistently simulated on the global scale with EMAC. The applicability of ��17O(CO) observations to unravelling changes in the tropospheric CH4-CO-OH system has been scrutinised, as well as the implications of the ozone (O3) input to the CO isotope oxygen budget. The ��17O(CO) is confirmed to be the principal signal for the CO photochemical age, thus providing a measure for the OH chiefly involved in the sink of CO. The highly mass-independently fractionated O3 oxygen is estimated to comprise around 2% of the overall tropospheric CO source, which has implications for the ��18O, but less likely for the ��17O CO budgets. Finally, additional sensitivity simulations with EMAC corroborate the nearly equal net effects of the present-day CH4 and CO burdens in removing tropospheric OH, as well as the large turnover and stability of the abundance of the latter. The simulated CO isotopologues nonetheless hint at a likely insufficient OH regeneration in the NH high latitudes and the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS).rn

Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20���year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of ���0.08��C (���0.13��C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called ���global dimming��� period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Decadal Variability in the Northeast Pacific in a Physical-Ecosystem Model: Role of Mixed Layer Depth and Trophic Interactions

A basin-wide interdecadal change in both the physical state and the ecology of the North Pacific occurred near the end of 1976. Here we use a physical-ecosystem model to examine whether changes in the physical environment associated with the 1976-1977 transition influenced the lower trophic levels of the food web and if so by what means. The physical component is an ocean general circulation model, while the biological component contains 10 compartments: two phytoplankton, two zooplankton, two detritus pools, nitrate, ammonium, silicate, and carbon dioxide. The model is forced with observed atmospheric fields during 1960-1999. During spring, there is a similar to 40% reduction in plankton biomass in all four plankton groups during 1977-1988 relative to 1970-1976 in the central Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The epoch difference in plankton appears to be controlled by the mixed layer depth. Enhanced Ekman pumping after 1976 caused the halocline to shoal, and thus the mixed layer depth, which extends to the top of the halocline in late winter, did not penetrate as deep in the central GOA. As a result, more phytoplankton remained in the euphotic zone, and phytoplankton biomass began to increase earlier in the year after the 1976 transition. Zooplankton biomass also increased, but then grazing pressure led to a strong decrease in phytoplankton by April followed by a drop in zooplankton by May: Essentially, the mean seasonal cycle of plankton biomass was shifted earlier in the year. As the seasonal cycle progressed, the difference in plankton concentrations between epochs reversed sign again, leading to slightly greater zooplankton biomass during summer in the later epoch.

Modelling Nd-isotopes with a coarse resolution ocean circulation model: Sensitivities to model parameters and source/sink distributions

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (Nd) of seawater is a quasi-conservative tracer of water mass mixing and is assumed to hold great potential for paleoceanographic studies. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the simulation of the two neodymium isotopes 143Nd, and 144Nd using the Bern3D model, a low resolution ocean model. The high computational efficiency of the Bern3D model in conjunction with our comprehensive approach allows us to systematically and extensively explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and Nd to the parametrisation of sources and sinks. Previous studies have been restricted in doing so either by the chosen approach or by computational costs. Our study thus presents the most comprehensive survey of the marine Nd cycle to date. Our model simulates both Nd concentrations as well as Nd in good agreement with observations. Nd covaries with salinity, thus underlining its potential as a water mass proxy. Results confirm that the continental margins are required as a Nd source to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. We estimate this source to be slightly smaller than reported in previous studies and find that above a certain magnitude its magnitude affects Nd only to a small extent. On the other hand, the parametrisation of the reversible scavenging considerably affects the ability of the model to simulate both, Nd concentrations and Nd. Furthermore, despite their small contribution, we find dust and rivers to be important components of the Nd cycle. In additional experiments, we systematically varied the diapycnal diffusivity as well as the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux to explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and its isotopic signature to the strength and geometry of the overturning circulation. These experiments reveal that Nd concentrations and Nd are comparatively little affected by variations in diapycnal diffusivity and the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux. In contrast, an adequate representation of Nd sources and sinks is crucial to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. The good agreement of our results with observations paves the way for the evaluation of the paleoceanographic potential of Nd in further model studies.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA���s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute���Earth System Model���Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We ���nd that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15���20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 results of model data with Community Climate System Model version 3 including the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CCSM3-DGVM) in NetCDF format at global and regional scale

The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.

Modeling the sensitivity of precipitation oxygen isotopes to the Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: A study using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0)

To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 ��C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

Three time-slice simulations of the Eemian (eem), the mid-Holocene (hol), and a pre-industrial (pri) control run with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Age model and stable isotope record of DSDP holes 48-401 and 86-577

Early Paleogene warm climates may have been linked to different modes and sources of deepwater formation. Warm polar temperatures of the Paleocene and Eocene may have resulted from either increased atmospheric trace gases or increased heat transport through deep and intermediate waters. The possibility of increasing ocean heat transport through the production of warm saline deep waters (WSDW) in the Tethyan region has generated considerable interest. In addition, General Circulation Model results indicate that deepwater source regions may be highly sensitive to changing basin configurations. To decipher deepwater changes, we examined detailed benthic foraminiferal faunal and isotopic records of the late Paleocene through the early Eocene (~60 to 50 Ma) from two critical regions: the North Atlantic (Bay of Biscay Site 401) and the Pacific (Shatsky Rise Site 577). These records are compared with published data from the Southern Ocean (Maud Rise Site 690, Islas Orcadas Rise Site 702). During the late Paleocene, similar benthic foraminiferal delta18O values were recorded at all four sites. This indicates uniform deepwater temperatures, consistent with a single source of deep water. The highest delta13C values were recorded in the Southern Ocean and were 0.5 per mil more positive than those of the Pacific. We infer that the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of nutrient-depleted deep water during the late Paleocene. Upper Paleocene Reflector Ab was cut on the western Bermuda Rise by cyclonically circulating bottom water, also suggesting a vigorous source of bottom water in the Southern Ocean. A dramatic negative excursion in both carbon and oxygen isotopes occurred in the latest Paleocene in the Southern Ocean. This is a short-term (<100 kyr), globally synchronous event which also is apparent in both the Atlantic and Pacific records as a carbon isotopic excursion of approximately 1 per mil. Faunal analyses from the North Atlantic and Pacific sites indicate that the largest benthic foraminiferal faunal turnover of the Cenozoic was synchronous with the isotopic excursion, lending support to the hypothesis that the extinctions were caused by a change in deepwater circulation. We speculate that the Southern Ocean deepwater source was reduced or eliminated at the time of the excursion. During the early Eocene, Southern Ocean delta13C values remained enriched relative to the North Atlantic and Pacific. However, the Southern Ocean was also enriched in delta18O relative to these basins. We interpret that these patterns indicate that although the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of cool, nutrient-depleted water, the intermediate to upper deep water sites of the North Atlantic and Pacific were ventilated by a different source that probably originated in low latitudes, i.e., WSDW.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of African topography and the intensification of upwelling in the Benguela region

The Benguela Current, located off the west coast of southern Africa, is tied to a highly productive upwelling system**1. Over the past 12 million years, the current has cooled, and upwelling has intensified**2, 3, 4. These changes have been variously linked to atmospheric and oceanic changes associated with the glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling**5, the closure of the Central American Seaway**1, 6 or the further restriction of the Indonesian Seaway**3. The upwelling intensification also occurred during a period of substantial uplift of the African continent**7, 8. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to test the effect of African uplift on Benguela upwelling. In our simulations, uplift in the East African Rift system and in southern and southwestern Africa induces an intensification of coastal low-level winds, which leads to increased oceanic upwelling of cool subsurface waters. We compare the effect of African uplift with the simulated impact of the Central American Seaway closure9, Indonesian Throughflow restriction10 and Antarctic glaciation**11, and find that African uplift has at least an equally strong influence as each of the three other factors. We therefore conclude that African uplift was an important factor in driving the cooling and strengthening of the Benguela Current and coastal upwelling during the late Miocene and Pliocene epochs.

Simulated changes in ocean physics and carbon cycle for LGM experiments with shifting positions of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds using the MITgcm, links to model results in NetCDF format

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 atm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

Simulated Methyl iodide emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by OMIP data

Production pathways of the prominent volatile organic halogen compound methyl iodide (CH3I) are not fully understood. Based on observations, production of CH3I via photochemical degradation of organic material or via phytoplankton production has been proposed. Additional insights could not be gained from correlations between observed biological and environmental variables or from biogeochemical modeling to identify unambiguously the source of methyl iodide. In this study, we aim to address this question of source mechanisms with a three-dimensional global ocean general circulation model including biogeochemistry (MPIOM-HAMOCC (MPIOM - Max Planck Institute Ocean Model HAMOCC - HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model)) by carrying out a series of sensitivity experiments. The simulated fields are compared with a newly available global data set. Simulated distribution patterns and emissions of CH3I differ largely for the two different production pathways. The evaluation of our model results with observations shows that, on the global scale, observed surface concentrations of CH3I can be best explained by the photochemical production pathway. Our results further emphasize that correlations between CH3I and abiotic or biotic factors do not necessarily provide meaningful insights concerning the source of origin. Overall, we find a net global annual CH3I air-sea flux that ranges between 70 and 260 Gg/yr. On the global scale, the ocean acts as a net source of methyl iodide for the atmosphere, though in some regions in boreal winter, fluxes are of the opposite direction (from the atmosphere to the ocean).

Regional ocean model for the Mediterranean, links to model files

A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.