Effectiveness of Pilotage

The objective of the pilotage effectiveness study was to come up with a process descrip-tion of the pilotage procedure, to design performance indicators based on this process description, to be used by Finnpilot, and to work out a preliminary plan for the imple-mentation of the indicators within the Finnpilot organisation. The theoretical aspects of pilotage as well as the guidelines and standards used were determined through a literature review. Based on the literature review, a process flow model with the following phases was created: the planning of pilotage, the start of pilo-tage, the act of pilotage, the end of pilotage and the closing of pilotage. The model based on the literature review was tested through interviews and observation of pilotage. At the same time an e-mail survey directed at foreign pilotage organisations, which included a questionnaire concerning their standards and management systems, operations procedures, measurement tools and their attitude to the passage planning, was conducted. The main issues in the observations and interviews were the passage plan and the bridge team co-operation. The phases of the pilotage process model emerged in both the pilotage activities and the interviews whereas bridge team co-operation was relatively marginal. Most of the pilotage organisations, who responded to the query, also use some standard-based management system. All organisations who answered the survey use some sort of a pilotage process model. According to the query, the main measuring tools for pilotage are statistical information concerning pilotage and the organisations, the customer feedback surveys, and financial results. Attitudes to-wards passage planning were mostly positive among the organisations. A workshop with pilotage experts was arranged where the process model constructed on the basis of the literature review was tuned to match practical pilotage. In the workshop it was determined that certain phases and the corresponding tasks, through which pilo-tage can be described as a process, were identifiable in all pilotage. The result of the workshop was a complemented process model, which separates incoming and outgoing traffic, as well as the fairway pilotage and harbour pilotage from each other. Addition-ally indicators divided according to the data gathering method were defined. Data con-cerning safety and traffic flow is gathered in the form of customer feedback. The pilot's own perceptions of the pilotage process are gathered through self-assessment. The measurement data which is connected to the phases of the pilotage process is generated e.g. by gathering statistics of the success of the pilot dispatches, the accuracy of the pi-lotage and the incidents that occurred during the pilotage, near misses, deviations and accidents. The measurement data is collected via the PilotWeb at the closing of the pilo-tage. A separate project and a project group with pilots also participating will be established for the deployment of the performance indicators. The phases of the project are: the definition phase, the implementation phase and the deployment phase. The purpose of the definition phase is to prepare questions for ship commanders concerning the cus-tomer feedback questionnaire and also to work out the self-assessment queries and the queries concerning the process indicators.

Helsingin seudun liikenteenhallinnan kärkihankkeiden päivitys 2011

Työn tavoitteena oli kokonaisnäkemyksen luominen Helsingin seudun liikenteenhallinnan tilasta ja kehitysnäkymistä sekä seuraavien tärkeimpien kehittämispolkujen tunnistaminen ja konkretisointi toimenpiteiksi. Työssä keskityttiin seuraaviin painopistealueisiin 1. Liityntäpysäköinnin informaation ja maksujärjestelmien kehittäminen 2. Liikenteenhallintakeskuksen toiminnan kehittäminen ja laajentaminen 3. Liikennejärjestelmän reaaliaikainen tilannekuva ja lyhyen aikavälin ennusteet 4. Pääkaupunkiseudun pääväylien ruuhkien ja häiriöiden hallinta 5. Joukkoliikenteen ajantasaisen matkustajainformaation kehittäminen. Työssä laadittiin katsaus kullakin painopistealueella jo tapahtuneeseen sekä käynnissä olevaan kehitystyöhön, kuvattiin esiin nousseita ongelmia ja laadittiin esitys vuoteen 2020 ulottuvasta toiminnallisesta tavoitetilasta sekä konkreettisista kehittämistoimista. Työssä järjestettiin myös tulevaisuustyöpaja, johon pyydettiin alustuksia valikoiduilta viranomaistahoilta, tutkijoilta ja palveluntuottajilta. Näiden keskustelujen kautta kirkastettiin seudun toimijoiden näkemystä älyliikenteen toimialan kehitysnäkymistä ja –tarpeista. Työn lopputuloksena syntyneeseen toimenpideohjelmaan kirjattiin yhteensä 30 hanketta. Näistä viisi hanketta valittiin työpajatyöskentelyn kautta varsinaisiksi kärkihankkeiksi, joiden toteutus on kriittistä liikkujien ja viranomaistyön palvelutason kannalta ja joka edellyttää usean toimijan yhteistyötä. Lisäksi tunnistettiin joukko seurattavia hankkeita. Valitut kärkihankkeet, käynnistämisen vastuutaho sekä tavoitteellinen käynnistysvuosi ovat seuraavat: 1. Liityntäpysäköinnin dynaamisen informaatiojärjestelmän pilotointi Hämeenlinnanväylän käytävässä Kehäradan asemilla (HSL 2012) 2. HSL:n alueen joukkoliikenteen häiriönhallinnan uudelleenorganisointi (HSL, Liikennevirasto 2012) 3. Seudullisen liikenteenhallintasuunnitelman laadinta verkollisen operoinnin kehittämiseksi häiriötilanteissa (ELY-keskus, Liikennevirasto 2013) 4. Reaaliaikaisen sujuvuustiedon tuottaminen ruuhkautuvalta pääkatu- ja alempiasteiselta maantieverkolta (Liikennevirasto, kunnat 2012) 5. Liikenteen vaihtuvan ohjauksen ja tiedottamisen hyödyntäminen pääväylien ruuhkautumisen ja häiriöiden hallinnassa. (ELY-keskus 2012) Kärkihankkeisiin ei liity sellaisia riippuvuuksia, että niitä ei voitaisi käynnistää ennen päätöksentekoa jostakin muusta investoinnista. Merkittävimmät riippuvuudet liittyvät LIJ2014-järjestelmän ajoneuvojen paikannuksen ja muiden työkalujen valmistumiseen. Johtoryhmän linjauksen mukaan kärkihankkeissa ja muissakin toimijoiden omissa hankkeissa syntyvien tietojärjestelmien rajapinnat avataan soveltuvasti kaupallisten toimijoiden käyttöön, jolloin syntyvien kaupallisten loppukäyttäjäpalveluiden kautta voidaan parantaa tietopalvelujen tavoittavuutta. Kärkihankkeiden valinta ja sisältö on rakennettu pitkälti sen lähtökohdan varaan, että liikenteen tietopalveluissa julkistoimijoiden roolina on pääasiassa lähtötietojen tuottaminen ja jakaminen varsinaisille palveluntuottajille. Vuoteen 2016 mennessä uusien rajapintojen kautta jaettavien tietojen määrä on nykyiseen verrattuna huomattavasti laajempi, ja odotukset uusien ja innovatiivisten palvelujen syntymiselle ovat korkeat. HLH-johtoryhmä nimeää jokaisen kärkihankkeen läpiviennistä vastaavan työryhmän, joiden työskentelyä ohjataan nykyisen kaltaisessa johtoryhmätyössä. Johtoryhmätyön organisointi on todettu toimivaksi, sillä ryhmä koostuu seudun 14 kunnan alueen keskeisistä julkisista toimijoista ja sen kautta on olemassa vahvat kytkennät sekä seudun liikennejärjestelmätyöhön (HLJ) että valtakunnalliseen älyliikenteen kehitystyöhön.

On-site calibration of a phase fraction meter by an inverse technique

The formal calibration procedure of a phase fraction meter is based on registering the outputs resulting from imposed phase fractions at known flow regimes. This can be straightforwardly done in laboratory conditions, but is rarely the case in industrial conditions, and particularly for on-site applications. Thus, there is a clear need for less restrictive calibration methods regarding to the prior knowledge of the complete set of inlet conditions. A new procedure is proposed in this work for the on-site construction of the calibration curve from total flown mass values of the homogeneous dispersed phase. The solution is obtained by minimizing a convenient error functional, assembled with data from redundant tests to handle the intrinsic ill-conditioned nature of the problem. Numerical simulations performed for increasing error levels demonstrate that acceptable calibration curves can be reconstructed, even from total mass measured within a precision of up to 2%. Consequently, the method can readily be applied, especially in on-site calibration problems in which classical procedures fail due to the impossibility of having a strict control of all the input/output parameters.

Development of a process for the direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide in a novel microstructured reactor

Microreactors have proven to be versatile tools for process intensification. Over recent decades, they have increasingly been used for product and process development in chemical industries. Enhanced heat and mass transfer in the reactors due to the extremely high surfacearea- to-volume ratio and interfacial area allow chemical processes to be operated at extreme conditions. Safety is improved by the small holdup volume of the reactors and effective control of pressure and temperature. Hydrogen peroxide is a powerful green oxidant that is used in a wide range of industries. Reduction and auto-oxidation of anthraquinones is currently the main process for hydrogen peroxide production. Direct synthesis is a green alternative and has potential for on-site production. However, there are two limitations: safety concerns because of the explosive gas mixture produced and low selectivity of the process. The aim of this thesis was to develop a process for direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide utilizing microreactor technology. Experimental and numerical approaches were applied for development of the microreactor. Development of a novel microreactor was commenced by studying the hydrodynamics and mass transfer in prototype microreactor plates. The prototypes were designed and fabricated with the assistance of CFD modeling to optimize the shape and size of the microstructure. Empirical correlations for the mass transfer coefficient were derived. The pressure drop in micro T-mixers was investigated experimentally and numerically. Correlations describing the friction factor for different flow regimes were developed and predicted values were in good agreement with experimental results. Experimental studies were conducted to develop a highly active and selective catalyst with a proper form for the microreactor. Pd catalysts supported on activated carbon cloths were prepared by different treatments during the catalyst preparation. A variety of characterization methods were used for catalyst investigation. The surface chemistry of the support and the oxidation state of the metallic phase in the catalyst play important roles in catalyst activity and selectivity for the direct synthesis. The direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide was investigated in a bench-scale continuous process using the novel microreactor developed. The microreactor was fabricated based on the hydrodynamic and mass transfer studies and provided a high interfacial area and high mass transfer coefficient. The catalysts were prepared under optimum treatment conditions. The direct synthesis was conducted at various conditions. The thesis represents a step towards a commercially viable direct synthesis. The focus is on the two main challenges: mitigating the safety problem by utilization of microprocess technology and improving the selectivity by catalyst development.

Yritysten kuljetusvirrat ja varastointi Pohjois-Euroopassa

Tämän työn tavoitteena on luoda kuva yritysten kuljetusvirroista ja varastointiratkaisuista Pohjois-Euroopassa. Päätutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin verkkopohjaista kyselyä, jolla pyrittiin keräämään tietoa Suomen, Ruotsin ja Viron suurimpien yritysten logistisista ratkaisuista. Kyselytutkimus toteutettiin yhteistyössä Tallinnan teknillisen yliopiston sekä Jönköpingin yliopiston kanssa. Toimivat kuljetusjärjestelmät ovat nykyään elintärkeitä, sillä ne luovat edellytykset talouden kasvulle ja hyvinvoinnin lisääntymiselle. Myös akateemisessa tutkimuksessa on havaittu, että yritysten todellisista toiminnoista ja luvuista tulisi saada lisää tietoa. Tässä työssä kerättiin ja analysoitiin tietoa yritysten kuljetusyksiköistä, kuljetusmuodoista, kuljetuskustannuksista, kuljetusvirroista eri maiden välillä, varastointiratkaisuista sekä kabotaasikuljetusten ja rikkidirektiivin vaikutuksista. Kirjallisuus- ja kyselytutkimuksen perusteella puoliperävaunu ja kumipyöräkuljetukset ovat Pohjois-Euroopan suosituimmat kuljetuskeinot. Kyselytulosten mukaan varsinkaan suomalaiset yritykset eivät juuri käytä rautatiekuljetuksia, eikä rautatieyhteyttä pidetty tärkeänä varastojen sijainnista päätettäessä. Kuljetusvirrat Kiinan ja Euroopan välillä suuntautuvat Kiinasta Eurooppaan päin. Kiinasta tuleva kuljetusvirta tulee todennäköisesti pysymään vahvana myös tulevaisuudessa. Venäjän ja Euroopan väliset kuljetusvirrat suuntautuvat kyselytulosten perusteella Euroopasta Venäjälle päin. Pohjois-Euroopassa yrityksillä on käytössä pieniä ja keskikokoisia varastoja sekä suurempia jakelukeskuksia. Tulevaisuudessa varastot vaikuttaisivat keskittyvän hieman suuremmiksi yksiköiksi. Kyselytutkimuksen mukaan kabotaasikuljetukset ovat laskeneet ainakin joidenkin yritysten maantiekuljetusten kustannuksia. Rikkidirektiivin puolestaan odotetaan nostavan merikuljetusten hintoja sekä yritysten kuljetuskustannuksia huomattavasti.

La revue de la Chambre de commerce de Montréal et la modernisation de la métropole dans les années 1950 et 1960

Pendant les années 1950 et 1960, Montréal se modernise sur plusieurs aspects. L’influence de l’administration de la ville sur cette modernisation est bien connue. Toutefois, les perspectives des acteurs extérieurs sont souvent ignorées. Ce mémoire examine donc les opinions de la Chambre de commerce de Montréal sur la modernisation de la métropole québécoise lors de ces deux décennies. La source principale utilisée pour effectuer cette étude a été la revue hebdomadaire de la Chambre, Commerce-Montréal. Dans le premier chapitre, les opinions de la Chambre de commerce sur la gouvernance municipale sont examinées. Celles-ci montrent que la Chambre percevait l’assainissement des moeurs politiques et l’amélioration de l’efficacité administrative comme intrinsèques à la modernisation de Montréal. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur la circulation automobile et le transport en commun. La Chambre proposait des moyens d’accélérer le débit de la circulation qu’elle jugeait crucial pour la modernisation de la métropole. Le troisième chapitre traite du développement urbain. D’après la Chambre, la modernisation de Montréal exigeait le renouvellement du cadre bâti de la ville, tant résidentiel que commercial. L’étude de ces trois thèmes confirme que, pendant la période 1950-1970, la Chambre de commerce a contribué de manière significative aux débats concernant la modernisation de Montréal. Nous relevons aussi que l’organisme, malgré son désir de paraître apolitique, a été influencé par sa fonction de représentant de la communauté d’affaires francophone. L’importance accordée à la rentabilité de la modernisation, ainsi que la hiérarchisation sociale attribuée à certains sujets, confirment notamment les orientations conservatrices de l’organisme.

River ecosystems at risk

Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.

Incidencia de la problemática del narcotráfico en México, sobre la consolidación de la cooperación bilateral con Estados Unidos en la marco de la política antinarcóticos en el período 2000-2009.

La presente investigación pretende analizar la incidencia de la problemática del narcotráfico en México sobre la consolidación de la cooperación bilateral con Estados Unidos, en el lapso de tiempo entre 2000 y 2009. Para alcanzar dicho objetivo, en el primer capítulo se describen las principales dinámicas del narcotráfico en México, evidenciando las principales organizaciones criminales que se dan al interior del país y las actividades que promueven, así mismo, los principales flujos del tráfico de drogas hacia Estados Unidos. Posteriormente, en el segundo capítulo, se explican las consecuencias que esta problemática ha dejado en México y en Estados Unidos y a continuación, en el tercer y último capítulo, se lleva a cabo un análisis sobre la cooperación que se ha dado entre ambos países en pro de eliminar esta problemática. De igual manera, las fuentes que se emplean para el desarrollo de la presente investigación son de tipo secundarias, se emplean técnicas bibliográficas y documentos no académicos, páginas web, artículos de prensa, entre otros. En términos teóricos se toma como referencia la postura funcionalista expuesta por David Mitrany, y algunos elementos de la teoría de la Interdependencia compleja expuesta por Robert Keohane y Joseph Nye. De igual manera, se hace referencia a la reflexión de Buzan, quien hace énfasis en el concepto de seguridad regional y cómo ésta condiciona la agenda de los Estados.

Desenvolupament de mètodes de predicció de soroll i anàlisi de l'impacte acústic produït pel trànsit viari i el ferrocarril en la ciutat de Girona

La feina feta en aquest treball de tesis s'ha desenvolupat a partir de tres objectius vertebradors, que fonamentalment són: ·El primer dels objectius d'aquest treball de tesis és presentar un recull dels factors que intervenen en l'acústica urbanística: soroll produït pels diferents vehicles, fórmules de predicció de soroll, geometria dels edificis... , tot estudiant els seus efectes en la ciutat de Girona. ·Un altre objectiu ha estat desenvolupar uns mètodes numèrics propis, contrastats experimentalment i extrapolables a qualsevol entorn urbanístic, que permetin predir els valors de les pertorbacions acústiques produïdes pels diferents vehicles en diferents situacions, entre els que es destaquen: -Fórmula de predicció del soroll en un entorn urbà i la seva aplicació a Girona. -Càlcul de l'increment de soroll en un carrer provocat per les reflexions de les ones sonores en les façanes dels edificis. -Estudi del nivell de soroll en la boca de la cavitat d'un túnel produït pel pas del ferrocarril. -Determinació del soroll provocat pel pas d'un tren sobre un viaducte. -Mètode de distribució i planificació del trànsit urbà per disminuir l'impacte acústic sobre la zona. ·El darrer objectiu consisteix en fer una descripció analítica de les principals fonts de soroll que afecten a la ciutat: el trànsit viari i el ferrocarril. Per realitzar aquests objectius s'ha disposat d'un banc de dades amb més de 2.000 mesures sonores de Girona (nivells equivalents de 10 minuts de durada). La metodologia seguida i els principis en que es fonamenta es detallen a l'inici de cada apartat. La finalitat de tots aquests estudis, no és altre que millorar el confort acústic, i la qualitat de vida, de les ciutats. Gairebé tots els grans nuclis de població del planeta es veuen afectats per una gravíssima problemàtica mediambiental, doncs a l'anomenada contaminació acústica cal afegir uns alts índexs de pol·lució atmosfèrica (altes concentracions de biòxid de carboni, generació d'illes de calor...). Aquesta situació, generalitzada arreu del planeta, ha propiciat l'aparició de mesures dràstiques consistents fonamentalment en restringir l'accés dels vehicles motoritzats als nuclis i zones centrals de les àrees urbanes. Precisament aquesta opció s'ha proposat per les zones interiors de Girona on l'elevada densitat de les edificacions deixa un escàs marge per plantejar la construcció de noves rutes o vies alternatives. Cal esmentar que tots els càlculs i teories que es desenvolupen en aquest treball de tesis reflecteixen la realitat acústica actual provocada pels diferents mitjans de transport. Molt possiblement, en un futur no massa llunyà, els nivells de soroll (dB) enregistrats en situacions de tràfic similar seran força menors. Són molts els factors que poden contribuir a aquesta disminució de la intensitat de les emissions sonores: reducció del fregament mecànic, augment del coeficient aerodinàmic, nous materials pels pneumàtics i l'asfalt ... Sense cap mena de dubte, però, una millora transcendental, i no només pel que fa al confort acústic sinó per l'ecosistema en general, seria potenciar la construcció de motors elèctrics o d'hidrogen. Aquests últims per exemple, a diferència dels motors de combustió, funcionen mitjançant piles de combustible que converteixen, amb molta netedat, el gas hidrogen en electricitat i possibiliten l'existència de vehicles no contaminants propulsats per motors elèctrics menys sorollosos. Així, al haver-hi menys fregament entre les parts mòbils del motor (no hi ha pistons ni cilindres) el soroll generat es reduiria considerablement.

Fish as ecological indicators in Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems

Podeu escriure el text directament o arrossegar-lo des d'un altre document L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és contribuir a l'ús dels peixos continentals com a indicadors de l'estat ecològic a la conca Mediterrània. En el primer treball es va detectar que encara que tots els índex biològics estaven correlacionats significativament, els peixos integren i expressen els estressos de manera i a una escala diferents, aportant una informació complementària als altres índexs. Al segon article es van estudiar els cabals de sis conques catalanes. S'ha mostrat que els règims hídrics estan alterats amb una tendència a la disminució del cabal i del nivell dels aqüífers. S'ha detectat quatre mètriques de peixos que es troben significativament afectades en zones més castigades per manca d'aigua degut a l'activitat humana. Es discuteix la necessitat de conèixer en profunditat el règim hídric de cada conca abans d'utilitzar els índex biològics. Al tercer article es va detectar que la composició d'espècies capturades va variar significativament al llarg del buidat amb un augment de l'alburn (A. alburnus) a les aigües pelàgiques durant els dies de pitjor qualitat de l'aigua, confirmant que l'alburn és més tolerant a la mala qualitat de l'aigua que la madrilleta vera (R. rutilus) i suggereix el seu potencial com a bioindicador. La condició d'aquestes dues espècies va canviar significativament al llarg del buidat de manera molt estreta amb la qualitat de l'aigua. Al quart capítol es va estudiar la biologia dels peixos d'un embassament altament contaminat (Flix). El percentatge de DELT anomalies i la presència de paràsits externs era major en la zona impactada que als punts de control i els valors més alts de pes eviscerat i pes del fetge estaven als punts de control. Les respostes van ser diferents per cada espècie i la carpa va ser la que va mostrar més clarament els impactes.

A regime-dependent balanced control variable based on potential vorticity

In this paper it is argued that rotational wind is not the best choice of leading control variable for variational data assimilation, and an alternative is suggested and tested. A rotational wind parameter is used in most global variational assimilation systems as a pragmatic way of approximately representing the balanced component of the assimilation increments. In effect, rotational wind is treated as a proxy for potential vorticity, but one that it is potentially not a good choice in flow regimes characterised by small Burger number. This paper reports on an alternative set of control variables which are based around potential vorticity. This gives rise to a new formulation of the background error covariances for the Met Office's variational assimilation system, which leads to flow dependency. It uses similar balance relationships to traditional schemes, but recognises the existence of unbalanced rotational wind which is used with a new anti-balance relationship. The new scheme is described and its performance is evaluated and compared to a traditional scheme using a sample of diagnostics.

Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.