Modèles de dépendance hiérarchique pour l’évaluation des passifs et la tarification en actuariat

Dans cette thèse on s’intéresse à la modélisation de la dépendance entre les risques en assurance non-vie, plus particulièrement dans le cadre des méthodes de provisionnement et en tarification. On expose le contexte actuel et les enjeux liés à la modélisation de la dépendance et l’importance d’une telle approche avec l’avènement des nouvelles normes et exigences des organismes réglementaires quant à la solvabilité des compagnies d’assurances générales. Récemment, Shi et Frees (2011) suggère d’incorporer la dépendance entre deux lignes d’affaires à travers une copule bivariée qui capture la dépendance entre deux cellules équivalentes de deux triangles de développement. Nous proposons deux approches différentes pour généraliser ce modèle. La première est basée sur les copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, et la deuxième sur les effets aléatoires et la famille de distributions bivariées Sarmanov. Nous nous intéressons dans un premier temps, au Chapitre 2, à un modèle utilisant la classe des copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, plus précisément la famille des copules partiellement imbriquées, afin d’inclure la dépendance à l’intérieur et entre deux lignes d’affaires à travers les effets calendaires. Par la suite, on considère un modèle alternatif, issu d’une autre classe de la famille des copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, celle des copules totalement imbriquées, afin de modéliser la dépendance entre plus de deux lignes d’affaires. Une approche avec agrégation des risques basée sur un modèle formé d’une arborescence de copules bivariées y est également explorée. Une particularité importante de l’approche décrite au Chapitre 3 est que l’inférence au niveau de la dépendance se fait à travers les rangs des résidus, afin de pallier un éventuel risque de mauvaise spécification des lois marginales et de la copule régissant la dépendance. Comme deuxième approche, on s’intéresse également à la modélisation de la dépendance à travers des effets aléatoires. Pour ce faire, on considère la famille de distributions bivariées Sarmanov qui permet une modélisation flexible à l’intérieur et entre les lignes d’affaires, à travers les effets d’années de calendrier, années d’accident et périodes de développement. Des expressions fermées de la distribution jointe, ainsi qu’une illustration empirique avec des triangles de développement sont présentées au Chapitre 4. Aussi, nous proposons un modèle avec effets aléatoires dynamiques, où l’on donne plus de poids aux années les plus récentes, et utilisons l’information de la ligne corrélée afin d’effectuer une meilleure prédiction du risque. Cette dernière approche sera étudiée au Chapitre 5, à travers une application numérique sur les nombres de réclamations, illustrant l’utilité d’un tel modèle dans le cadre de la tarification. On conclut cette thèse par un rappel sur les contributions scientifiques de cette thèse, tout en proposant des angles d’ouvertures et des possibilités d’extension de ces travaux.

Aplicação do Balanced Scorecard numa seguradora angolana

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

B2B-palveluprosessin analyysi ja myyntikohtaamisen kehityskohteet uusasiakashankinnassa

Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoitteena on selvittää tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat myyntikohtaamisen onnistumiseen potentiaalisten yritysasiakkaiden keskuudessa. Käytännön ratkaisuihin pääsemiseksi opinnäytetyössä tarkastellaan case-yritystä, joka on suomalainen vakuutusyhtiö. Tutkimus keskittyy case-yrityksen palveluprosessin tarkasteluun, sekä käytännön myyntikohtaamisen analysoimiseen. Tutkimuksen avulla pyritään muodostamaan näkemys siitä, mitä myyntikohtaamisessa kannattaa kehittää, jotta uusasiakashankintaa voitaisiin yrityksen toimintona parantaa. Myyntikohtaamista ja laajempaa palveluprosessia tarkastellaan aluksi case-yrityksen toimintamallien kautta. Keskeisessä roolissa on asiakaslähtöisen toimintaperiaatteen selventäminen teoriassa ja sen vertaaminen case-yrityksen koko palveluprosessin toimintamalleihin. Tämän jälkeen siirrytään tarkastelemaan haastattelututkimuksen avulla kerättyä dataa case-yrityksen asiakkailta. Haastattelututkimuksen avulla selvitettiin myyntikohtaamisen toteutumista käytännössä. Opinnäytetyössä selvisi, että case-yrityksen toimintamallit on rakennettu asiakaslähtöisiä periaatteita noudattaen. Myös käytännön myyntikohtaamisessa asiakaslähtöisyys toteutuu laajalti, mutta muutamia kehityskohteita etenkin ensikontaktin ja asiakkaan yksilöllisen informoinnin osalta on löydettävissä. Lisäksi case-yrityksen suositellaan kiinnittävän huomiota myyjien itsevarmuuden lisäämiseen, joka parantaa työtyytyväisyyttä, myyjien toimintavapautta ja mahdollistaa asiakaslähtöisyyden kumpuamisen organisaatiosta asiakkaalle. Opinnäytetyö jättää tilaa jatkotutkimukselle. Etenkin case-yrityksen osalta olisi suositeltavaa järjestää työtyytyväisyyskysely B2B-myyntitiimin keskuudessa, jotta toimintaa voitaisiin kehittää sisäisesti. Opinnäytetyön kehitysehdotusten pohjalta case-yritys voi myös kohdistaa lisätutkimusta asiakkaiden kokemuksiin, ja selvittää laajemman kyselyn avulla seikkoja, joita asiakkaat toivovat yritykseltä.

Prevalencia de síntomas relacionados con desórdenes musculo esqueléticos en trabajadores de una empresa dedicada a la venta y distribución de medicamentos y equipos médicos - Colombia, 2015.

Introducción: Los Desórdenes Musculo-Esqueléticos (DME) tienen origen multifactorial. En Colombia corresponden al principal grupo diagnóstico en procesos relacionados con la determinación de origen y pérdida de capacidad laboral. Objetivo: Determinar la relación entre síntomas musculo-esqueléticos y factores relacionados con la carga física en trabajadores de una empresa dedicada a la venta y distribución de medicamentos y equipos médicos, Bogotá (Colombia), en el año 2015. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio de corte transversal en 235 trabajadores. Se incluyeron variables sociodemográficas, ocupacionales y las relacionadas con los síntomas musculoesqueléticos y carga física. Se utilizó en cuestionario ERGOPAR. Para el análisis se utilizó la Prueba Exacta de Fisher, el Odds Ratio (OR) con el Intervalo de Confianza (IC) del 95%. Se realizó el análisis Multivariado con Regresión Logística Binaria. Resultados: La prevalencia de síntomas relacionados con DME fue de 79,2%, siendo más prevalente en cuello, hombros y columna dorsal (48,1%), seguido por columna lumbar (35,3%). Se encontró una asociación entre síntomas en cuello, hombros y/o columna dorsal con el sexo femenino (p=0,005, OR=2,33, 95%IC: 1,2-4,2); adoptar postura bípeda menos de 30 minutos (p=0,004, OR=3,34, 95%IC: 1,4-7,6); adoptar postura cabeza/cuello inclinado hacia delante entre 30 minutos y 2 horas (p=0,007, OR=3,25, 95%IC :1,3-7,7) y en columna lumbar con adoptar postura espalda/tronco hacia delante entre 30 minutos y 2 horas (p=0,001, OR=4,27, 95%IC: 1,7-10,3); y la antigüedad en el cargo entre 1 y 5 años (p=0,009, OR=3,47, 95%IC: 1,3-8,8). Conclusión: Las posturas bípedas con y sin desplazamiento, inclinaciones de tronco y cabeza, transporte manual de cargas, sexo femenino, antigüedad en el cargo y edad están asociadas conjuntamente al riesgo para presentar DME.

Respecting contractual intentions : balancing consumer expectations with the sanctity of contract in the context of standard form insurance contracts

It is the purpose of this article to examine the means curently available to judges to achieve a workable balance between providing appropriate consumer protection to signatories of standard form contractors while still retaining adequate respect for the sanctity of contract, and, based on this analysis, to determine whether a significantly greater scope of contract (re)construction is likely to become the norm in most common law jurisdictions in the coming decades.

Vulnerability, insurance and policy: The learner driver's standard of care

In Cook v Cook the Australian High Court held that the standard of reasonable care owed by a learner driver to an instructor, conscious of the driver’s lack of experience, was lower than that owed to other passengers and road users. Recently, in Imbree v McNeilly, the High Court declined to follow this principle, concluding that the driver’s status or relationship with the claimant should no longer influence or alter the standard of care owed. The decision therefore provides an opportunity to re-examine the rationale and policy behind current jurisprudence governing the standard of care owed by learner drivers. In doing so, this article considers the principles relevant to determining the standard and Imbree’s implications for other areas of tort law and claimant v defendant relationships. It argues that Imbree was influenced by changing judicial perceptions concerning the vulnerability of driving instructors and the relevance of insurance to tortious liability.

Insurance contract disclosure – an uncertain balance

This article canvasses recent case law adjudicating the uneasy disclosure balance between the interests of the insurer and the insured in the process of transacting an insurance contract. It examines also the consequences of non-disclosure and misrepresentation and whether the avowed legislative intent — that the liability of the insurer in respect of a claim is to be reduced to the amount that would place the insurer in the position it would have been had the non-disclosure or misrepresentation not occurred — is being achieved in practice. As there is no doubt as to who bears the onus of proof as to non-disclosure or misrepresentation it is surprising that insurers continue to flounder in this regard in relation to underwriting guidelines and adherence to them. The article reviews recent case law in this context and stresses that an insurer wishing to preserve its capacity to avoid liability on the basis that it would not have entered into a contract at all had the true situation been known to it must maintain detailed underwriting guidelines supported by consistent adherence to those guidelines. Recent case law also emphasises that the insurer must provide clear and cogent admissible evidence from appropriate personnel and officers of the company to discharge its onus.

Insurance Policy from the Quebec Fire Assurance Company to Mr. Joseph Power Bradley

Insurance Policy from the Quebec Fire Assurance Company to Mr. Joseph Power Bradley for his household furniture, linen wearing apparels, glass, earthenware and printed books in a house occupied as a dwelling and belonging to Joseph Legare Junt in the town of Quebec, Oct. 10, 1830

Managing non-standard international experience: evidence from a Finnish company

Purpose – This paper extends the increasing debates about the role of international experience through mechanisms other than standard expatriation packages, in particular through the use of short-term assignments. It explores the different forms of short-term assignments (project work, commuter assignments, virtual international working and development assignments) and the different sets of positive and negative implications these can have for the company and the individuals concerned. The integration-differentiation debate is reflected here as elsewhere in IHRM, with the company moving towards greater centralization and control of its use of these assignments. Design/methodology/approach – Since the research is exploratory, we adopted a qualitative approach to get a more in-depth understanding on the realities the corporations and the assignees are facing. The study was implemented through a single case study setting in which the data were collected by interviewing (n=20) line managers, human resource management (HRM) staff and assignees themselves. In addition corporate documentation and other materials were reviewed. Findings – The present case study provides evidence about the characteristics of short-term assignments as well as the on the management of such assignments. The paper identifies various benefits and challenges involved in the use of short-term assignments both from the perspectives of the company and assignees. Furthermore, the findings support the view that a recent increase in the popularity of short-term assignments has not been matched by the development of HRM policies for such assignments. Research limitations/implications – As a single case study, limitations in the generalizability of the findings should be kept in mind. More large-scale research evidence is needed around different forms of international assignments beyond standard expatriation in order to fully capture the realities faced by international HRM specialists Practical implications – The paper identifies many challenges but also benefits of using short-term assignments. The paper reports in-depth findings on HR development needs that organizations face when expanding the use of such assignments. Social implications – The paper identifies many challenges but also benefits of using short-term assignments. The paper reports in-depth findings on HR development needs that organizations face when expanding the use of such assignments. Originality/value – Empirical research on short-term assignments is still very limited. In that way the paper provides much needed in-depth evidence on why such assignments are used, what challenges are involved in the use of such assignments and what kinds of HR-development needs are involved.

Export trading company legislation : hearing before the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions Supervision, Regulation and Insurance of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, second session, September 30, 1980.

Item 1013

Principles of the New York standard fire insurance policy,

"Table of cases": p. 281-308.

The experience grading and rating schedule; designed to be a United States standard for measuring fire insurance costs based upon combined experience averages,

Mode of access: Internet.

Spectator Handy Guide to Standard and Special Life Insurance Contracts, Non-Forfeiture Values and Actuarial Tables Useful to the Life Underwriter

Mode of access: Internet.

The Travelers standard.

Mode of access: Internet.

Oral health quality of the workers of a telemarketing company and their satisfaction with the treatments provided by the corporative dental insurance plan

Aim: To evaluate the oral health quality of the workers of a telemarketing company and their satisfaction with the dental treatments provided by the corporative dental insurance plan. Methods: Data collection was by an online intranet questionnaire on dental service providers from Uberlândia/MG and Campinas/SP. It was addressed to 6000 associates, with objective and subjective questions, comprising the level of the telemarketing operators’ oral health, dental needs, satisfaction with dental care providers and the importance of having the laboral dental services provided by the company. Results: After analysis of the results, we observed that: 57.52% of the workers required improvement in their oral health and 56.03% mentioned prevention as the largest need, 66.70% use the dental providers’ services, but only 31.34% were satisfied with them. Conclusions: The results underscore that the workers have an intermediate level of dental needs, with prevention as top importance. Additionally, establishment of a basic attention program inside the company would increase the satisfaction and adhesion indexes of providers and the workers’ oral health.