Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Método de otimização de produtos e processos medidos por múltiplas características de qualidade

Esta dissertação pretende consolidar um método quantitativo, flexível e genérico que possa ser útil na otimização experimental dos mais variados produtos e processos industriais medidos por múltiplas variáveis de resposta. O que se pretende com o método é identificar o ajuste ótimo dos fatores controláveis, ou seja, aquele que reduz os custos devido à má qualidade de um produto considerando também os custos de matéria-prima e energia gastos na fabricação desse produto. A redução dos custos gerados pela má qualidade de um produto é alcançada através da minimização dos desvios das variáveis de resposta dos seus valores alvos e maximização da robustez do produto ou processo aos fatores de ruído e a possíveis oscilações nos fatores controláveis, pois toda vez que uma variável de resposta desvia-se do seu valor alvo ou apresenta variabilidade, existe uma perda financeira experimentada pelo seu usuário. Ao longo do texto, faz-se uma revisão da literatura existente sobre o assunto, apresentam-se as etapas do método que devem ser cumpridas e algumas ferramentas consideradas eficientes no cumprimento dessas etapas. Logo após, realizam-se estudos práticos para validar o método e, baseado nesses estudos e no referencial teórico, conclui-se sobre o assunto.

Proposta de método para avaliação do desempenho térmico de residências unifamiliares em clima quente e úmido

Nowadays, evaluation methods to measure thermal performance of buildings have been developed in order to improve thermal comfort in buildings and reduce the use of energy with active cooling and heating systems. However, in developed countries, the criteria used in rating systems to asses the thermal and energy performance of buildings have demonstrated some limitations when applied to naturally ventilated building in tropical climates. The present research has as its main objective to propose a method to evaluate the thermal performance of low-rise residential buildings in warm humid climates, through computational simulation. The method was developed in order to conceive a suitable rating system for the athermal performance assessment of such buildings using as criteria the indoor air temperature and a thermal comfort adaptive model. The research made use of the software VisualDOE 4.1 in two simulations runs of a base case modeled for two basic types of occupancies: living room and bedroom. In the first simulation run, sensitive analyses were made to identify the variables with the higher impact over the cases´ thermal performance. Besides that, the results also allowed the formulation of design recommendations to warm humid climates toward an improvement on the thermal performance of residential building in similar situations. The results of the second simulation run was used to identify the named Thermal Performance Spectrum (TPS) of both occupancies types, which reflect the variations on the thermal performance considering the local climate, building typology, chosen construction material and studied occupancies. This analysis generates an index named IDTR Thermal Performance Resultant Index, which was configured as a thermal performance rating system. It correlates the thermal performance with the number of hours that the indoor air temperature was on each of the six thermal comfort bands pre-defined that received weights to measure the discomfort intensity. The use of this rating system showed to be appropriated when used in one of the simulated cases, presenting advantages in relation to other evaluation methods and becoming a tool for the understanding of building thermal behavior

Simulação computacional como ferramenta de auxílio ao projeto: aplicação em edifícios naturalmente ventilados no clima de Natal/RN

Natural air ventilation is the most import passive strategy to provide thermal comfort in hot and humid climates and a significant low energy strategy. However, the natural ventilated building requires more attention with the architectural design than a conventional building with air conditioning systems, and the results are less reliable. Therefore, this thesis focuses on softwares and methods to predict the natural ventilation performance from the point of view of the architect, with limited resource and knowledge of fluid mechanics. A typical prefabricated building was modelled due to its simplified geometry, low cost and occurrence at the local campus. Firstly, the study emphasized the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, to simulate the air flow outside and inside the building. A series of approaches were developed to make the simulations possible, compromising the results fidelity. Secondly, the results of CFD simulations were used as the input of an energy tool, to simulate the thermal performance under different rates of air renew. Thirdly, the results of temperature were assessed in terms of thermal comfort. Complementary simulations were carried out to detail the analyses. The results show the potentialities of these tools. However the discussions concerning the simplifications of the approaches, the limitations of the tools and the level of knowledge of the average architect are the major contribution of this study

Divergência genética de cultivares de arroz quanto à resistência a Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A divergência genética de 16 cultivares de arroz quanto à resistência ao percevejo-do-colmo-do-arroz, Tibraca limbativentris Stål, foi avaliada por meio de técnicas de análise multivariada. O experimento foi conduzido em casa de vegetação, em delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso, com oito repetições. Na avaliação foram considerados oito caracteres de resistência ao ataque do inseto. A divergência genética foi avaliada por procedimentos multivariados: distância generalizada de Mahalanobis (D²), método de agrupamento de otimização de Tocher e técnica de variáveis canônicas. As cultivares mais dissimilares foram Bico Ganga e Marabá Branco, enquanto Agulha e Branco Tardão foram as mais similares. Foram formados cinco grupos pelo método de otimização de Tocher. As três primeiras variáveis canônicas explicaram 88,5% da variabilidade total disponível. Conclui-se que as técnicas de análise multivariada são eficientes para a análise da divergência genética entre as cultivares de arroz, com destaque para Marabá Branco e Bico Ganga, consideradas as mais promissoras a serem utilizadas em futuros cruzamentos para melhoramento visando resistência ao percevejo-do-colmo-do-arroz.

Otimização de forma aplicando B-splines sob critério integral de tensões

This work proposes a computational methodology to solve problems of optimization in structural design. The application develops, implements and integrates methods for structural analysis, geometric modeling, design sensitivity analysis and optimization. So, the optimum design problem is particularized for plane stress case, with the objective to minimize the structural mass subject to a stress criterion. Notice that, these constraints must be evaluated at a series of discrete points, whose distribution should be dense enough in order to minimize the chance of any significant constraint violation between specified points. Therefore, the local stress constraints are transformed into a global stress measure reducing the computational cost in deriving the optimal shape design. The problem is approximated by Finite Element Method using Lagrangian triangular elements with six nodes, and use a automatic mesh generation with a mesh quality criterion of geometric element. The geometric modeling, i.e., the contour is defined by parametric curves of type B-splines, these curves hold suitable characteristics to implement the Shape Optimization Method, that uses the key points like design variables to determine the solution of minimum problem. A reliable tool for design sensitivity analysis is a prerequisite for performing interactive structural design, synthesis and optimization. General expressions for design sensitivity analysis are derived with respect to key points of B-splines. The method of design sensitivity analysis used is the adjoin approach and the analytical method. The formulation of the optimization problem applies the Augmented Lagrangian Method, which convert an optimization problem constrained problem in an unconstrained. The solution of the Augmented Lagrangian function is achieved by determining the analysis of sensitivity. Therefore, the optimization problem reduces to the solution of a sequence of problems with lateral limits constraints, which is solved by the Memoryless Quasi-Newton Method It is demonstrated by several examples that this new approach of analytical design sensitivity analysis of integrated shape design optimization with a global stress criterion purpose is computationally efficient

Biomecânica e otimização topológica com H-adaptatividade em implantes dentários nitretados a plasma em cátodo oco

In recent years there has been a significant growth in technologies that modify implant surfaces, reducing healing time and allowing their successful use in areas with low bone density. One of the most widely used techniques is plasma nitration, applied with excellent results in titanium and its alloys, with greater frequency in the manufacture of hip, ankle and shoulder implants. However, its use in dental implants is very limited due to high process temperatures (between 700 C o and 800 C o ), resulting in distortions in these geometrically complex and highly precise components. The aim of the present study is to assess osseointegration and mechanical strength of grade II nitrided titanium samples, through configuration of hollow cathode discharge. Moreover, new formulations are proposed to determine the optimum structural topology of the dental implant under study, in order to perfect its shape, make it efficient, competitive and with high definition. In the nitriding process, the samples were treated at a temperature of 450 C o and pressure of 150 Pa , during 1 hour of treatment. This condition was selected because it obtains the best wettability results in previous studies, where different pressure, temperature and time conditions were systematized. The samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscope, roughness, microhardness and wettability. Biomechanical fatigue tests were then conducted. Finally, a formulation using the three dimensional structural topology optimization method was proposed, in conjunction with an hadaptive refinement process. The results showed that plasma nitriding, using the hollow cathode discharge technique, caused changes in the surface texture of test specimens, increases surface roughness, wettability and microhardness when compared to the untreated sample. In the biomechanical fatigue test, the treated implant showed no flaws, after five million cycles, at a maximum fatigue load of 84.46 N. The results of the topological optimization process showed well-defined optimized layouts of the dental implant, with a clear distribution of material and a defined edge

Método de Otimização Topológica em Estruturas Tridimensionais

The topology optimization problem characterize and determine the optimum distribution of material into the domain. In other words, after the definition of the boundary conditions in a pre-established domain, the problem is how to distribute the material to solve the minimization problem. The objective of this work is to propose a competitive formulation for optimum structural topologies determination in 3D problems and able to provide high-resolution layouts. The procedure combines the Galerkin Finite Elements Method with the optimization method, looking for the best material distribution along the fixed domain of project. The layout topology optimization method is based on the material approach, proposed by Bendsoe & Kikuchi (1988), and considers a homogenized constitutive equation that depends only on the relative density of the material. The finite element used for the approach is a four nodes tetrahedron with a selective integration scheme, which interpolate not only the components of the displacement field but also the relative density field. The proposed procedure consists in the solution of a sequence of layout optimization problems applied to compliance minimization problems and mass minimization problems under local stress constraint. The microstructure used in this procedure was the SIMP (Solid Isotropic Material with Penalty). The approach reduces considerably the computational cost, showing to be efficient and robust. The results provided a well defined structural layout, with a sharpness distribution of the material and a boundary condition definition. The layout quality was proporcional to the medium size of the element and a considerable reduction of the project variables was observed due to the tetrahedrycal element

Técnicas multivariadas na determinação da diversidade genética em gergelim usando marcadores RAPD

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar diferentes técnicas multivariadas na caracterização de 35 genótipos de gergelim mediante 769 marcadores RAPD. As distâncias genéticas foram obtidas pelo complemento aritmético do coeficiente de Jaccard e agrupadas pelos métodos hierárquicos do vizinho mais próximo, do vizinho mais distante, das médias aritméticas não ponderadas (UPGMA), do método de otimização de Tocher e análises de coordenadas principais. O agrupamento dos genótipos foi alterado em função dos diferentes métodos usados. Adotando-se a mesma distância genética (0,36) como valor de corte, diferenciaram-se quatro grupos no método do vizinho mais próximo, 13 para o vizinho mais distante, 11 no UPGMA e quatro no Tocher. Entre os métodos hierárquicos, o UPGMA apresentou o melhor ajuste das distâncias originais e estimadas (CCC = 0,89). As análises das coordenadas principais confirmaram a baixa diversidade existente entre os genótipos. A maior divergência ocorreu entre as cultivares Seridó 1 e Arawaca 4, e a menor, entre os genótipos VCR-101 e GP-3314. As três primeiras coordenadas principais contabilizaram 35,13% do total da variabilidade, e 18 autovalores foram necessários para explicar 81% da variação genética. Os métodos UPGMA, de otimização de Tocher, e as análises de coordenadas principais são complementares na formação dos grupos.

Detecção de falhas em estruturas inteligentes usando otimização por nuvem de partículas: fundamentos e estudo de casos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling thermal conductivity, specific heat, and density of milk: A neural network approach

The accurate determination of thermophysical properties of milk is very important for design, simulation, optimization, and control of food processing such as evaporation, heat exchanging, spray drying, and so forth. Generally, polynomial methods are used for prediction of these properties based on empirical correlation to experimental data. Artificial neural networks are better Suited for processing noisy and extensive knowledge indexing. This article proposed the application of neural networks for prediction of specific heat, thermal conductivity, and density of milk with temperature ranged from 2.0 to 71.0degreesC, 72.0 to 92.0% of water content (w/w), and 1.350 to 7.822% of fat content (w/w). Artificial neural networks presented a better prediction capability of specific heat, thermal conductivity, and density of milk than polynomial modeling. It showed a reasonable alternative to empirical modeling for thermophysical properties of foods.

A new solution to the optimal power flow problem

A new approach to solving the Optimal Power Flow problem is described, making use of some recent findings, especially in the area of primal-dual methods for complex programming. In this approach, equality constraints are handled by Newton's method inequality constraints for voltage and transformer taps by the logarithmic barrier method and the other inequality constraints by the augmented Lagrangian method. Numerical test results are presented, showing the effective performance of this algorithm. © 2001 IEEE.

Coupling rate measurement of a novel multi-actuated piezoelectric device using optical interferometry

The class of piezoelectric actuators considered in this paper consists of a multi-flexible structure actuated by two or more piezoceramic devices that must generate different output displacements and forces at different specified points of the domain and in different directions. The devices were modeled by finite element using the software ANSYS and the topology optimization method. The following XY actuators were build to achieve maximum displacement in the X and Y directions with a minimum crosstalk between them. The actuator prototypes are composed of an aluminum structure, manufactured by using a wire Electrical Discharge Machining, which are bonded to rectangular PZT5A piezoceramic blocks by using epoxy resin. Multi-actuator piezoelectric device displacements can be measured by using optical interferometry, since it allows dynamic measurements in the kHz range, which is of the order of the first resonance frequency of these piezomechanisms. A Michelson-type interferometer, with a He-Ne laser source, is used to measure the displacement amplitudes in nanometric range. A new optical phase demodulation technique is applied, based on the properties of the triangular waveform drive voltage applied to the XY piezoelectric nanopositioner. This is a low-phase-modulation-depth-like technique that allows the rapid interferometer auto-calibration. The measurements were performed at 100 Hz frequency, and revealed that the device is linear voltage range utilized in this work. The ratio between the generated and coupled output displacements and the drive voltages is equal to 10.97 nm/V and 1.76 nm/V, respectively, which corresponds to a 16% coupling rate. © 2010 IEEE.

Improving the grid operation and reliability cost of distribution systems with dispersed generation

In this work, a mathematical model to analyze the impact of the installation and operation of dispersed generation units in power distribution systems is proposed. The main focus is to determine the trade-off between the reliability and operational costs of distribution networks when the operation of isolated areas is allowed. In order to increase the system operator revenue, an optimal power flow makes use of the different energy prices offered by the dispersed generation connected to the grid. Simultaneously, the type and location of the protective devices initially installed on the protection system are reconfigured in order to minimize the interruption and expenditure of adjusting the protection system to conditions imposed by the operation of dispersed units. The interruption cost regards the unsupplied energy to customers in secure systems but affected by the normal tripping of protective devices. Therefore, the tripping of fuses, reclosers, and overcurrent relays aims to protect the system against both temporary and permanent fault types. Additionally, in order to reduce the average duration of the system interruption experienced by customers, the isolated operation of dispersed generation is allowed by installing directional overcurrent relays with synchronized reclose capabilities. A 135-bus real distribution system is used in order to show the advantages of using the mathematical model proposed. © 1969-2012 IEEE.