Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Developing a model of links between general and workplace belongingness and depressive symptoms

Given the high prevalence of depression in the community there is urgent need to understand the interpersonal predictors of this disorder. Data from large community samples indicates that a diminished sense of belonging appears to be the most salient and immediate antecedent of a rapid depressive response. Belongingness in the workplace is also very important and associated with depressive symptoms over and above associations attributable to general or community belongingness. Finally it appears that the personality factor of interpersonal sensitivity moderates the relationship between belongingness and depressive symptoms. Results have extensive future implications for the prevention and treatment of depression.

A preliminary study of the effects of Tai Chi and Qigong medical exercise on indicators of metabolic syndrome, glycaemic control, health-related quality of life, and psychological health in adults with elevated blood glucose

Objectives To evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effects of a Tai Chi and Qigong exercise programme in adults with elevated blood glucose. Design, Setting, and Participants A single group pre–post feasibility trial with 11 participants (3 male and 8 female; aged 42–65 years) with elevated blood glucose. Intervention Participants attended Tai Chi and Qigong exercise training for 1 to 1.5 h, 3 times per week for 12 weeks, and were encouraged to practise the exercises at home. Main Outcome Measures Indicators of metabolic syndrome (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol); glucose control (HbA1c, fasting insulin and insulin resistance (HOMA)); health-related quality of life; stress and depressive symptoms. Results There was good adherence and high acceptability. There were significant improvements in four of the seven indicators of metabolic syndrome including BMI (mean difference −1.05, p<0.001), waist circumference (−2.80 cm, p<0.05), and systolic (−11.64 mm Hg, p<0.01) and diastolic blood pressure (−9.73 mm Hg, p<0.001), as well as in HbA1c (−0.32%, p<0.01), insulin resistance (−0.53, p<0.05), stress (−2.27, p<0.05), depressive symptoms (−3.60, p<0.05), and the SF-36 mental health summary score (5.13, p<0.05) and subscales for general health (19.00, p<0.01), mental health (10.55, p<0.01) and vitality (23.18, p<0.05). Conclusions The programme was feasible and acceptable and participants showed improvements in metabolic and psychological variables. A larger controlled trial is now needed to confirm these promising preliminary results.

Psychological effects upon exposure to polyhalogenated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans

Thirty workers who had been exposed to combustion products for several years due to testing of flame retarding qualities of building materials and 30 controls from the same facility were investigated. Concentrations found in samples taken from different places of the facility were up to 14,660 μg/kg for polybrominated dibenzofurans and up to 67.1 μg/kg for polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs). Physical examination, routine laboratory parameters, and blood fat concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs revealed normal findings. Neurotoxic symptoms showed a weak tendency of overrepresentation among the exposed workers. The frequency of neurobehavioural symptoms increased significantly with trait anxiety independent of exposure to combustion products. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

A prospective study investigating the links among classroom environment, school connectedness, and depressive symptoms in adolescents

School connectedness and classroom environment have both been strongly linked to depressive symptoms, but their interrelation is unclear. We tested whether school connectedness mediated the link between classroom environment and depressive symptoms. A sample of 504 Australian seventh- and eighth-grade students completed the Classroom Environment Scale, Psychological Sense of School Membership scale, and Children's Depression Inventory, at three time points. Together, the classroom environment and school connectedness accounted for 41% to 45% of variance in concurrent depressive symptoms, and 14% of subsequent depressive symptoms with prior symptoms accounted for. Only a partial mediation was found, with both classroom environment and school connectedness continuing to contribute uniquely to the prediction of concurrent and subsequent depressive symptoms. These findings provide additional support for the idea that school-based pathways to depressive symptoms are a complex interplay between environment and individual difference variables, necessitating individual and environmental school-based interventions.

Psychological health and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women: A 21-year prospective study

Background Symptoms of depression can be recurrent or limited to one episode. This study discusses the prospective association between psychological health, measured as change in depression symptoms, and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women. Methods Data obtained from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy. Depression was measured using the Delusions-Symptoms: States Inventory. To examine possible transitions over time, depression was grouped into four categories and assessed at different phases over the 21-year period. Multiple logistic regression models and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our analytical strategy were performed. Results Three hundred and one women reported diabetes 21 years after the index pregnancy. Almost one-third of the women who reported depression symptoms continued to report these at a subsequent follow-up (FU) phase. About 1 in 20 women who had not reported depression symptoms at the 5-year FU did so at the subsequent 14-year FU. In prospective analyses, we did not find a significant association between diabetes and negative change (not depressed to depressed, at subsequent phase); however, for women with positive history of symptoms of depression and women with persistent symptoms, there was a 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.40) to 2.23-fold (95% CI: 1.09–4.57) greater risk of diabetes. Conclusions Our study suggests that an increased risk of diabetes is significantly associated with persistent depression symptoms. It highlights the importance of recognizing depression symptoms in terms of women's psychological wellbeing and thus provides a basis for targeting those most at risk.

Combined pharmacotherapy and psychological therapies for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)

BACKGROUND PTSD is an anxiety disorder related to exposure to a severe psychological trauma. Symptoms include re-experiencing the event, avoidance and arousal as well as distress and impairment resulting from these symptoms.Guidelines suggest a combination of both psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy may enhance treatment response, especially in those with more severe PTSD or in those who have not responded to either intervention alone. OBJECTIVES To assess whether the combination of psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy provides a more efficacious treatment for PTSD than either of these interventions delivered separately. SEARCH STRATEGY Searches were conducted on the trial registers kept by the CCDAN group (CCDANCTR-Studies and CCDANCTR-References) to June 2010. The reference sections of included studies and several conference abstracts were also scanned. SELECTION CRITERIA Patients of any age or gender, with chronic or recent onset PTSD arising from any type of event relevant to the diagnostic criteria were included. A combination of any psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy was included and compared to wait list, placebo, standard treatment or either intervention alone. The primary outcome was change in total PTSD symptom severity. Other outcomes included changes in functioning, depression and anxiety symptoms, suicide attempts, substance use, withdrawal and cost. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two or three review authors independently selected trials, assessed their 'risk of bias' and extracted trial and outcome data. We used a fixed-effect model for meta-analysis. The relative risk was used to summarise dichotomous outcomes and the mean difference and standardised mean difference were used to summarise continuous measures. MAIN RESULTS Four trials were eligible for inclusion, one of these trials (n =24) was on children and adolescents. All used an SSRI and prolonged exposure or a cognitive behavioural intervention. Two trials compared combination treatment with pharmacological treatment and two compared combination treatment with psychological treatment. Only two trials reported a total PTSD symptom score and these data could not be combined. There was no strong evidence to show if there were differences between the group receiving combined interventions compared to the group receiving psychological therapy (mean difference 2.44, 95% CI -2.87, 7.35 one study, n=65) or pharmacotherapy (mean difference -4.70, 95% CI -10.84 to 1.44; one study, n = 25). Trialists reported no significant differences between combination and single intervention groups in the other two studies. There were very little data reported for other outcomes, and in no case were significant differences reported. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS There is not enough evidence available to support or refute the effectiveness of combined psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy compared to either of these interventions alone. Further large randomised controlled trials are urgently required.

Postcoital dysphoria: Prevalence and psychological correlates

Introduction While problems related to desire, arousal, and orgasm have been subject to extensive epidemiologic research, women's postcoital reactions and feelings, and postcoital dysphoria (PCD) remains under-researched. - Aim The study examined the association between women's attachment anxiety and avoidance, differentiation of self, and the experience of PCD symptoms. - Methods Two hundred and thirty female university students completed an online survey. - Main Outcome Measures The Female Sexual Function Index, the Experiences in Close Relationships Scale, the Differentiation of Self Inventory-Revised, and study specific questions. - Results Forty-six percent of respondents reported experiencing PCD symptoms at least once in their lifetime with 5.1% experiencing PCD symptoms a few times within the past 4 weeks. A small but significant inverse correlation was found between lifetime prevalence of PCD and sexual functioning (r = −0.16). While the regression model accounted for 22% of variance in lifetime prevalence of PCD, attachment and differentiation of self variables did not account for significant variance. - Conclusions The findings confirm that PCD is under-recognized and under-researched. There appears to be no relationship between PCD and intimacy in close relationships. Further research is necessary to understand the subjective experience of PCD and to inform the development of a reliable measure.

Psychological consequences of cancer from the salutogenic and dyadic perspective

Previous empirical research has shown that positive, i.e. salutogenic, psychological resources and social support, have health-promoting effects in stressful life situations. In the present study the associations between sense of coherence (SOC), dispositional optimism, partner support, psychological distress, and quality of life among cancer patients and their partners were examined. The data was collected from Helsinki University Central Hospital in 1997 2000 by self-report questionnaires approximately 2, 8, and 14 months post diagnosis. Participants in studies I-IV were 155, 123, 153, and 147 cancer patients and their partners, respectively. The sample of the present study consisted of physically relatively well-functioning patients, whose overall psychological wellbeing was generally good as compared to the healthy population. Partners in this study, however, reacted more strongly to their partners illness and treatment. The partners displayed e.g. higher levels of anxiety and depression than the patients. The results of this study indicated that cancer patients and their partners with strong SOC and who are optimistic report fewer symptoms of distress. Moreover, patients who display an optimistic attitude to life, who receive support from their partner, and who control how they express anger have a better quality of life. The findings also confirmed that the role of the partner is significant in coping with cancer. The symptoms of depression and anxiety in patients and partners were associated, and the partner s optimism seemed to protect also the patient from elevated levels of anxiety. The role of the partner was also highlighted in the couples anger-expression styles. The patients and partners tendency to inhibit anger was associated with decreased partner support and worse patient quality of life. Finally, in the present study we found substantial gender differences. For the patients, partner support was more significant for the women than for the men. Furthermore, for the female patients, the husband s tendency to openly express anger (anger-out) had a negative impact on their psychological quality of life, whereas the wives high anger-out seemed to predict good psychological quality of life in the men. Also, in this study the female partners reported higher levels of anxiety and depression as compared to the male partners. The results of the present study extend the previous literature on positive psychological resources and psychological wellbeing among cancer couples. Furthermore, these findings support the theory on SOC and optimism as health-promoting factors. However, the construct of SOC seems to include other important elements besides optimism. The findings of this study are applicable in designing new rehabilitation programmes for cancer patients and their partners.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms among school personnel after the Jokela school shooting : A longitudial study of exposure, interventions, and symptom changes

Objectives. School personnel who are exposed to school violence are at risk in developing post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In Finland there have been two such events in recent years, Jokela school shooting on 7.11.2007 and Kauhajoki school shooting about a year later. The aim of the present study was to examine the presence and change in PTSD symptoms during the first year after the Jokela school shooting. A second aim was to study how the initial exposure and treatment affects the symptom levels of PTSD. There were four hypotheses: 1) The PTSD symptoms are higher for the people who were exposed to the school shooting than for the people who did not face the stressor. 2) The PTSD symptoms increase in the follow up for the people at the school which was not attacked because of the second incident brought up the memories from the Jokela school shooting. 3) Those who have greater exposure to the shooting will have higher level of PTSD symptoms at both 4 and 11 months after the shooting than those who were not directly exposed to the shooting. 4) The PTSD symptoms are reduced more in the group that starts treatment right after the traumatic event than in other groups. Methods. A sample of 24 members of Jokela school personnel were examined four months after the incident and 16 were reassessed 11 month after the incident. To study the change and level of symptoms in other schools during the same period, a group with no exposure to the shooting was used as a control group (n=22). The assessment included Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist Specific (PCL-S) and a social and professional support questionnaire. In addition questions about timing of support and experiences of psychological debriefing were asked. Results and conclusions. Most participants in the study group experienced some symptoms of PTSD at both 4 and 11 months. In both measures three participants from the study group fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for PTSD. The study group and control group differed significantly in overall symptom levels. The study group had more PTSD symptoms in the first measure but in the follow-up the study group’s PTSD symptoms decreased and the control group’s increased. There was a significant change in the study groups PTSD symptom level for those who started treatment right after the traumatic event. The results from this study showed that an exposure to school shooting has long-term effects on school personnel. The findings suggest that it is crucial to plan a comprehensive and long-term treatment for school personnel in the aftermath of school shooting.

Peace and war: trajectories of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms before, during, and after military deployment in Afghanistan.

In the study reported here, we examined posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in 746 Danish soldiers measured on five occasions before, during, and after deployment to Afghanistan. Using latent class growth analysis, we identified six trajectories of change in PTSD symptoms. Two resilient trajectories had low levels across all five times, and a new-onset trajectory started low and showed a marked increase of PTSD symptoms. Three temporary-benefit trajectories, not previously described in the literature, showed decreases in PTSD symptoms during (or immediately after) deployment, followed by increases after return from deployment. Predeployment emotional problems and predeployment traumas, especially childhood adversities, were predictors for inclusion in the nonresilient trajectories, whereas deployment-related stress was not. These findings challenge standard views of PTSD in two ways. First, they show that factors other than immediately preceding stressors are critical for PTSD development, with childhood adversities being central. Second, they demonstrate that the development of PTSD symptoms shows heterogeneity, which indicates the need for multiple measurements to understand PTSD and identify people in need of treatment.

The impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on PTSD symptoms and psychosocial functioning among older adults.

The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas experienced during childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, or older adulthood. Each of these developmental periods is characterized by age-related changes in cognitive and social processes that may influence psychological adjustment following trauma exposure. Results revealed that older adults who experienced their currently most distressing traumatic event during childhood exhibited more severe symptoms of PTSD and lower subjective happiness compared with older adults who experienced their most distressing trauma after the transition to adulthood. Similar findings emerged for measures of social support and coping ability. The differential effects of childhood compared with later life traumas were not fully explained by differences in cumulative trauma exposure or by differences in the objective and subjective characteristics of the events. Our findings demonstrate the enduring nature of traumatic events encountered early in the life course and underscore the importance of examining the developmental context of trauma exposure in investigations of the long-term consequences of traumatic experiences.

Memory in posttraumatic stress disorder: properties of voluntary and involuntary, traumatic and nontraumatic autobiographical memories in people with and without posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms.

One hundred fifteen undergraduates rated 15 word-cued memories and their 3 most negatively stressful, 3 most positive, and 7 most important events and completed tests of personality and depression. Eighty-nine also recorded involuntary memories online for 1 week. In the first 3-way comparisons needed to test existing theories, comparisons were made of memories of stressful events versus control events and involuntary versus voluntary memories in people high versus low in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity. For all participants, stressful memories had more emotional intensity, more frequent voluntary and involuntary retrieval, but not more fragmentation. For all memories, participants with greater PTSD symptom severity showed the same differences. Involuntary memories had more emotional intensity and less centrality to the life story than voluntary memories. Meeting the diagnostic criteria for traumatic events had no effect, but the emotional responses to events did. In 533 undergraduates, correlations among measures were replicated and the Negative Intensity factor of the Affect Intensity Measure correlated with PTSD symptom severity. No special trauma mechanisms were needed to account for the results, which are summarized by the autobiographical memory theory of PTSD.

The centrality of event scale: a measure of integrating a trauma into one's identity and its relation to post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms.

We introduce a new scale that measures how central an event is to a person's identity and life story. For the most stressful or traumatic event in a person's life, the full 20-item Centrality of Event Scale (CES) and the short 7-item scale are reliable (alpha's of .94 and .88, respectively) in a sample of 707 undergraduates. The scale correlates .38 with PTSD symptom severity and .23 with depression. The present findings are discussed in relation to previous work on individual differences related to PTSD symptoms. Possible connections between the CES and measures of maladaptive attributions and rumination are considered along with suggestions for future research.

Risikowahrnehmung und psychologische Reaktionen in öffentlichen Krisensituationen am Beispiel von Terrorattentaten / Risk perception and psychological reactions in public crisis situations using the example of terror attacks

The reactions to the 9/11 terror attacks were immense in the western population. In the current review, the impact of terror attacks is presented with surveys, clinical interviews, and scientific polls, which were identified in a comprehensive literature search. Results show that the fear of further terror attacks is comparatively overestimated in the population and is associated with numerous psychological consequences and reactions. The overestimation of the probability of further terror attacks is related among other reasons to its unique features and its strong representation in the media. Several independent studies proved that the number of stress symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses is associated with a high risk perception in relation to terror attacks. This was not only the case for victims of terror attacks, but also for people indirectly exposed to the terror attacks. In addition, there is evidence that the number of the stress symptoms correlate with the duration of TV consumption of new findings about terror attempts. Methodologically, there is a critical lack of more in-depth analyses to explain the development of risk perceptions and its influence on mental and physical health. Because of the international importance and cross-cultural differences, an international standardization of research is desirable. [In German] Die Reaktionen auf die Terrorattentate vom 9. September 2001 in New York waren in der westlichen Bevölkerung immens. In der vorliegenden Übersichtsarbeit werden die Auswirkungen von Terrorattentaten durch Einbeziehung bevölkerungsrepräsentativer Untersuchungen, Surveys, klinischer Interviews und Einstellungsbefragungen dargestellt, die über eine deskriptive Literaturrecherche ermittelt wurden. Als Ergebnis des Reviews zeigt sich, dass die Angst vor weiteren Terrorattentaten in der Bevölkerung vergleichsweise hoch und mit zahlreichen psychologischen Folgen und Reaktionen assoziiert ist. Die Einschätzung der Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit eines Terrorattentats hängt unter anderem mit den besonderen Charakteristika und der hohen medialen Präsenz des Themas zusammen. Die Anzahl der Stresssymptome bis hin zu psychiatrischen Diagnosen erwies sich in mehreren unabhängigen Untersuchungen mit einer hohen Risikowahrnehmung assoziiert. Dies ließ sich nicht nur bei den Opfern von Terrorattentaten, sondern auch bei indirekt Betroffenen zeigen. Darüber hinaus gibt es mehrfache Belege dafür, dass die Anzahl der Stresssymptome mit der Dauer des TV-Konsums über Neuigkeiten zu Terrorattentaten zusammenhing. Als methodische Kritik ist an den gegenwärtigen Untersuchungsszenarien einzuwenden, dass es derzeit keine tiefer gehenden Analysen zur Entwicklung der Risikowahrnehmung und zu ihrem Einfluss auf die Gesundheit gibt. Aufgrund der internationalen Bedeutung des Themas und der interkulturellen Unterschiede im Umgang mit Krisensituationen ist eine internationale Standardisierung von Untersuchungszugängen wünschenswert.