956 resultados para Optimal hedge ratio. Garch. Effectiveness


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The thesis aims to elaborate on the optimum trigger speed for Vehicle Activated Signs (VAS) and to study the effectiveness of VAS trigger speed on drivers’ behaviour. Vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs that are activated by individual vehicle when the driver exceeds a speed threshold. The threshold, which triggers the VAS, is commonly based on a driver speed, and accordingly, is called a trigger speed. At present, the trigger speed activating the VAS is usually set to a constant value and does not consider the fact that an optimal trigger speed might exist. The optimal trigger speed significantly impacts driver behaviour. In order to be able to fulfil the aims of this thesis, systematic vehicle speed data were collected from field experiments that utilized Doppler radar. Further calibration methods for the radar used in the experiment have been developed and evaluated to provide accurate data for the experiment. The calibration method was bidirectional; consisting of data cleaning and data reconstruction. The data cleaning calibration had a superior performance than the calibration based on the reconstructed data. To study the effectiveness of trigger speed on driver behaviour, the collected data were analysed by both descriptive and inferential statistics. Both descriptive and inferential statistics showed that the change in trigger speed had an effect on vehicle mean speed and on vehicle standard deviation of the mean speed. When the trigger speed was set near the speed limit, the standard deviation was high. Therefore, the choice of trigger speed cannot be based solely on the speed limit at the proposed VAS location. The optimal trigger speeds for VAS were not considered in previous studies. As well, the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions were not clearly stated. The finding from this thesis is that the optimal trigger speed should be primarily based on lowering the standard deviation rather than lowering the mean speed of vehicles. Furthermore, the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, with the goal of lowering the standard deviation.

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This paper develops a methodology for testing the term structure of volatility forecasts derived from stochastic volatility models, and implements it to analyze models of S&P500 index volatility. U sing measurements of the ability of volatility models to hedge and value term structure dependent option positions, we fmd that hedging tests support the Black-Scholes delta and gamma hedges, but not the simple vega hedge when there is no model of the term structure of volatility. With various models, it is difficult to improve on a simple gamma hedge assuming constant volatility. Ofthe volatility models, the GARCH components estimate of term structure is preferred. Valuation tests indicate that all the models contain term structure information not incorporated in market prices.

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Esta pesquisa analisou a aplicação da metodologia de hedge accounting na contabilização de derivativos financeiros em conjunto com a operação objeto de proteção. Foi demonstrado o cálculo do valor justo por marcação a mercado, o teste de efetividade do hedge, a documentação e classificação contábil nos modelos de hedge de valor justo e hedge de fluxo de caixa. Foi verificado ainda o impacto da tributação na efetividade da operação de hedge.

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This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

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The problem of signal tracking, in the presence of a disturbance signal in the plant, is solved using a zero-variation methodology. A state feedback controller is designed in order to minimise the H-2-norm of the closed-loop system, such that the effect of the disturbance is attenuated. Then, a state estimator is designed and the modification of the zeros is used to minimise the H-infinity-norm from the reference input signal to the error signal. The error is taken to be the difference between the reference and the output signals, thereby making it a tracking problem. The design is formulated in a linear matrix inequality framework, such that the optimal solution of the stated control problem is obtained. Practical examples illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Due to the wide range of design possibilities, simple manufactured, low maintenance and low cost, cross-flow heat exchangers are extensively used in the petroleum, petrochemical, air conditioning, food storage, and others industries. In this paper a mathematical model for cross-flow heat exchangers with complex flow arrangements for determining epsilon -NTU relations is presented. The model is based on the tube element approach, according to which the heat exchanger outlet temperatures are obtained by discretizing the coil along the tube fluid path. In each cross section of the element, tube-side fluid temperature is assumed to be constant because the heat capacity rate ratio C*=Cmin/Cmax tends toward zero in the element. Thus temperature is controlled by effectiveness of a local element corresponding to an evaporator or a condenser-type element. The model is validated through comparison with theoretical algebraic relations for single-pass cross-flow arrangements with one or more rows. Very small relative errors are obtained showing the accuracy of the present model. epsilon -NTU curves for several complex circuit arrangements are presented. The model developed represents a useful research tool for theoretical and experimental studies on heat exchangers performance.

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The aim of the present investigation was to provide information about the long-term effects and optimal timing for class-II treatment with the Bionator appliance. Lateral cephalograms of 23 class-II patients treated with the Bionator were analyzed at three time periods: T1, start of treatment; T2, end of Bionator therapy; and T3, long-term observation (after completion of growth). T3 includes a phase with fixed appliances. The treated sample was divided into two groups according to their skeletal maturity as evaluated by the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method. The early-treated group (13 subjects) initiated treatment before the peak in mandibular growth, which occurred after completion of Bionator therapy. The late-treated group (10 subjects) received Bionator treatment during the peak. The T1-T2, T2-T3, and T1-T3 changes in the treated groups were compared with changes in control groups of untreated class-II subjects by nonparametric statistics (P < .05). The findings of the present study on Bionator therapy followed by fixed appliances indicate that this treatment protocol is more effective and stable when it is performed during the pubertal growth spurt. Optimal timing to start treatment with the Bionator is when a concavity appears at the lower borders of the second and the third cervical vertebrae (CVMS 11). In the long term, the amount of significant supplementary elongation of the mandible in subjects treated during the pubertal peak is 5.1 mm more than in the controls, and it is associated with a backward direction of condylar growth. Significant increments in mandibular ramus height also were recorded.

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This paper presents a new algorithm for optimal power flow problem. The algorithm is based on Newton's method which it works with an Augmented Lagrangian function associated with the original problem. The function aggregates all the equality and inequality constraints and is solved using the modified-Newton method. The test results have shown the effectiveness of the approach using the IEEE 30 and 638 bus systems.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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This paper applies two methods of mathematical decomposition to carry out an optimal reactive power flow (ORPF) in a coordinated decentralized way in the context of an interconnected multi-area power system. The first method is based on an augmented Lagrangian approach using the auxiliary problem principle (APP). The second method uses a decomposition technique based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) first-order optimality conditions. The viability of each method to be used in the decomposition of multi-area ORPF is studied and the corresponding mathematical models are presented. The IEEE RTS-96, the IEEE 118-bus test systems and a 9-bus didactic system are used in order to show the operation and effectiveness of the decomposition methods.

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In this paper is presented a new approach for optimal power flow problem. This approach is based on the modified barrier function and the primal-dual logarithmic barrier method. A Lagrangian function is associated with the modified problem. The first-order necessary conditions for optimality are fulfilled by Newton's method, and by updating the barrier terms. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been examined by solving the Brazilian 53-bus, IEEE118-bus and IEEE162-bus systems.

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In this work, the linear and nonlinear feedback control techniques for chaotic systems were been considered. The optimal nonlinear control design problem has been resolved by using Dynamic Programming that reduced this problem to a solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In present work the linear feedback control problem has been reformulated under optimal control theory viewpoint. The formulated Theorem expresses explicitly the form of minimized functional and gives the sufficient conditions that allow using the linear feedback control for nonlinear system. The numerical simulations for the Rössler system and the Duffing oscillator are provided to show the effectiveness of this method. Copyright © 2005 by ASME.

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In this work the multiarea optimal power flow (OPF) problem is decoupled into areas creating a set of regional OPF subproblems. The objective is to solve the optimal dispatch of active and reactive power for a determined area, without interfering in the neighboring areas. The regional OPF subproblems are modeled as a large-scale nonlinear constrained optimization problem, with both continuous and discrete variables. Constraints violated are handled as objective functions of the problem. In this way the original problem is converted to a multiobjective optimization problem, and a specifically-designed multiobjective evolutionary algorithm is proposed for solving the regional OPF subproblems. The proposed approach has been examined and tested on the RTS-96 and IEEE 354-bus test systems. Good quality suboptimal solutions were obtained, proving the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach. ©2009 IEEE.