Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Dental caries experience in Indians of the Upper Xingu, Brazil

The present study describes the experience of dental caries in Indians communities of the Xingu, in order to supply parameters for further analysis of trends of the disease in Indians. We performed oral health examination in 288 Indians from four communities (Yawalapiti, Aweti, Mehinaku and Kamaiura) living in the southern part of the Xingu National Park, using international criteria defined by the World Health Organization. The outcome measures were the DMFT and dmft scores, and the care index. Indians of the Upper Xingu presented high levels of caries, in all age groups. The average DMFT for 11 to 13-year-old children - 5.93 - was lower than the index measured in 1993 for 12-year-old schoolchildren in nearby cities - 8.23 -, whose United Nations' human development index ranked medium. However, Indians presented a much lower care index, per age group, than these cities, and a high ratio of missing teeth for persons above 20 years old. These observations indicate low incorporation of dental care services. The irregularity of the services programmed for these communities, and the changing dietary and cultural patterns, mainly derived from their contact with the non-indigenous population of Brazil, reinforce the pressing need for health promotion initiatives aimed at these groups.

El ocio cotidiano de los estudiantes: de educación secundaria en Espanã

Partiendo de la interrelación existente entre la educación cultural de las personas y el uso que hacen de sus tiempos cotidianos, en el artículo se pone de manifiesto la relevancia que tiene el ocio en el desarrollo humano. Más aún cuando nos referimos a adolescentes y jóvenes que, dada la realidad socio familiar que les ha venido impuesta, ven condicionada la satisfacción de muchas de las necesidades básicas que favorecen una vida de y con calidad, en cuyo logro el derecho al ocio adquiere un protagonismo clave. En este sentido, se presentarán parte de los resultados de un proyecto de investigación, cuyo objetivo principal residía en conocer e interpretar cómo inciden los tiempos escolares en los procesos de socialización adolescente y juvenil, así como en los modos de configurar su tiempo libre. Más en concreto: se analizarán algunos de los datos obtenidos en un cuestionario diseñado ad hoc y aplicado a una muestra de 3.306 alumnos/as de entre 12 y 17 años que cursaban Educación Secundaria Obligatoria (ESO) en centros educativos de la geografía española en el curso académico 2010-2011. Conocer la utilización que hace este colectivo de sus tiempos, tiene para nosotros en este artículo una doble finalidad: reflexionar en qué medida las actividades que realizan favorecen la adquisición de aprendizajes de carácter cultural; indagar si existe alguna relación significativa entre la edad, el contexto familiar y las actividades que llevan a cabo.

Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

Upper Arm Measurements of Healthy Neonates Comparing Ultrasonography and Anthropometric Methods

Objective: To compare measurements of the upper arm cross-sectional areas (total arm area,arm muscle area, and arm fat area of healthy neonates) as calculated using anthropometry with the values obtained by ultrasonography. Materials and methods: This study was performed on 60 consecutively born healthy neonates: gestational age (mean6SD) 39.661.2 weeks, birth weight 3287.16307.7 g, 27 males (45%) and 33 females (55%). Mid-arm circumference and tricipital skinfold thickness measurements were taken on the left upper mid-arm according to the conventional anthropometric method to calculate total arm area, arm muscle area and arm fat area. The ultrasound evaluation was performed at the same arm location using a Toshiba sonolayer SSA-250AÒ, which allows the calculation of the total arm area, arm muscle area and arm fat area by the number of pixels enclosed in the plotted areas. Statistical analysis: whenever appropriate, parametric and non-parametric tests were used in order to compare measurements of paired samples and of groups of samples. Results: No significant differences between males and females were found in any evaluated measurements, estimated either by anthropometry or by ultrasound. Also the median of total arm area did not differ significantly with either method (P50.337). Although there is evidence of concordance of the total arm area measurements (r50.68, 95% CI: 0.55–0.77) the two methods of measurement differed for arm muscle area and arm fat area. The estimated median of measurements by ultrasound for arm muscle area were significantly lower than those estimated by the anthropometric method, which differed by as much as 111% (P,0.001). The estimated median ultrasound measurement of the arm fat was higher than the anthropometric arm fat area by as much as 31% (P,0.001). Conclusion: Compared with ultrasound measurements using skinfold measurements and mid-arm circumference without further correction may lead to overestimation of the cross-sectional area of muscle and underestimation of the cross-sectional fat area. The correlation between the two methods could be interpreted as an indication for further search of correction factors in the equations.

A Multidimensional scaling perspective of Rostow's forecasts with the Track-record (1960s-2011) of "pioneers" and "latecomers"

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications

Digit Ratio (2D:4D) in Newborns: Influences of Prenatal Testosterone and Maternal Environment

Introduction: The 2D:4D digit ratio is sexually-dimorphic, probably due to testosterone action through the perinatal period. We characterize the 2D:4D ratio in newborn (NB) infants, in between the pre- and postnatal surges of testosterone, and relate it to the mother's 2D:4D and to testosterone levels in the amniotic fluid (AF). Subjects and methods: Testosterone was assayed in samples of maternal plasma and AF collected at amniocentesis. Shortly after birth, 106 NBs and their mothers were measured for 2D:4D ratio. Results: NB males had lower mean 2D:4D ratios than females but this dimorphism was significant only for the left hand (males: 0.927; females: 0.950; p=0.004). Mothers who had sons had lower 2D:4D ratios than those who had daughters and the mother's 2D:4D were higher than those of NBs regardless of sex. Both hands of NB females were negatively correlated with AF testosterone and positively correlated with the mother's 2D:4D, but males showed no significant associations. Maternal plasma testosterone also showed a negative weak correlation with NB's digit ratio in both sexes. Conclusions: Sexual dimorphism at birth was only significant for the left hand, in contrast with reports of greater right hand dimorphism, suggesting that postnatal testosterone is determinant for 2D:4D stabilization. The lower 2D:4D ratios in mothers who had sons support claims that hormone levels in parents are influential for determining their children's sex. NB female's digit ratio, but not males', was associated to the level of AF testosterone. The mother's 2D:4D ratios were positively correlated with their daughters' 2D:4D, but the same was not observed for male NBs, suggesting that prenatal testosterone levels in male fetus lead their 2D:4D ratios to stray from their mothers' with high individual variability.

Neglected tropical diseases in Brazil

Poverty is intrinsically related to the incidence of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). The main countries that have the lowest human development indices (HDI) and the highest burdens of NTDs are located in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Among these countries is Brazil, which is ranked 70th in HDI. Nine out of the ten NTDs established by the World Health Organization (WHO) are present in Brazil. Leishmaniasis, tuberculosis, dengue fever and leprosy are present over almost the entire Brazilian territory. More than 90% of malaria cases occur in the Northern region of the country, and lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis occur in outbreaks in a particular region. The North and Northeast regions of Brazil have the lowest HDIs and the highest rates of NTDs. These diseases are considered neglected because there is not important investment in projects for the development of new drugs and vaccines and existing programs to control these diseases are not sufficient. Another problem related to NTDs is co-infection with HIV, which favors the occurrence of severe clinical manifestations and therapeutic failure. In this article, we describe the status of the main NTDs currently occurring in Brazil and relate them to the HDI and poverty.

Cape Verde’s foreign policy: an economic perspective

The virtuous cycle between development success and foreign policy in Cape Verde reflects a positive interaction between globalization and governance. Development success under globalization entails positive market perceptions regarding the orientation and predictability of policies as well as the accompanying institutional arrangements, thereby making foreign policy salient beyond the comparator group, or “aspirational”. Even if there is no universally applicable development model, an aspirational foreign policy can be built on positive rankings with respect to comparator groups. In Macedo and Pereira (2010), macrolevel policy and institutional combinations underpinning trade diversification and income convergence in West and Southern Africa are used to establish development success for Cape Verde and Mozambique respectively. Here, the narrative of long-term development helps identify the following drivers: moving towards a market economy; opening up to regional and global trade; increasing economic and political freedom; pursuing macroeconomic stability and financial reputation; ensuring policy continuity (especially in trade and industrial sectors) and focusing on human development (especially poverty reduction and education). Looking at GDP per capita and indicators of financial reputation and good governance of sub-regional peers is not sufficient to conclude that Cape Verde’s convergence will be sustained. Nevertheless, the positive interaction between trade and financial globalization, on the one hand, and democracy and good governance, on the other, have positive implications for the effectiveness of foreign policy across the region as well as in the Portuguese-speaking community.

Process Engineering of Stem Cells for Clinical Application

Over the last decade, human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) have garnered a lot of attention owing to their inherent self-renewal ability and pluripotency. These characteristics have opened opportunities for potential stem cell-based regenerative medicines, for development of drug discovery platforms and as unique in vitro models for the study of early human development.(...)

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Analysis of world economic variables using multidimensional scaling

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

Spatial distribution of disseminated histoplasmosis and AIDS co-infection in an endemic area of Northeastern Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The spatial distribution of disseminated histoplasmosis (DH) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) co-infection in adult residents of Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil was evaluated. METHODS: Socio-demographic data for the DH/AIDS cases were obtained from a reference hospital, and socio-environmental indicators were obtained from an official Brazilian institute. Kernel analysis and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) cluster maps were used to estimate the case density within the city. RESULTS: DH/AIDS cases were concentrated in the Northwestern and Southwestern peripheral areas of the city, related with low human development indices, but different from AIDS cases distribution. CONCLUSION: Risk factors other than AIDS infection must affect histoplasmosis development in this area.

Um olhar sobre a surdez: uma história de vida

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Intervenção Precoce)

A educação como empoderamento na ótica do desenvolvimento: uma discussão de modelos

Apresentamos nesta comunicação uma tese de ressignificação da educação como empoderamento tendo como foco uma agenda de desenvolvimento justo, digno e inclusivo, e equacionamos os seus principais tipos ou modelos, partindo do princípio que o empoderamento, pelo facto de remeter para diversas conotações ideológicas, não permite almejar consensos quando se trata de o tomar como sinal distintivo ou imagem de marca de uma educação cuja aposta principal é a promoção de um desenvolvimento humano verdadeiramente empenhado em corresponder às expectativas normativas das pessoas em termos de justiça, respeito, dignidade, liberdade e direitos fundamentais para todos.