Marigold (Tagetes erecta L.) as an attractive crop to natural enemies in onion fields

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

Caracterização e análise do sistema de abastecimento de água potável no município de Botucatu, SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Aplicação e análise do uso racional de energia elétrica na Fazenda Experimental Lageado-UNESP, Botucatu-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Percepções de profissionais de uma organização de procura de órgãos sobre a entrevista com familiares de potenciais doadores

In the last twenty years, and more expressively in the past decade, the search for improvement in the organ transplantation system has contributed to the achievement of positive results in the Brazilian statistics related to the survival of transplanted individuals. However, for a transplantation to be performed, a number of phases must be followed by professionals working in organ search services. The phase that generates the greatest tension is undoubtedly that of family interviews, as it involves both the feelings of relatives who are facing a recent loss and those of interviewers who need to know how to deal with families at this time. The goal of this study was to apprehend perceptions of professionals working for an Organ Search Organization concerning interviews with relatives of potential donors. The qualitative methodology was used by adopting the Collective Subject Discourse for data organization. Interviews were conducted with six staff members of an organ search service whose experience as interviewers comprised from eight to fourteen years of work. It was possible to apprehend the professionals’ perceptions of family interviews and identify facilitating and hindering factors in this phase of the donation process. Such factors mainly involve: contact with the teams assisting patients, the difficult moment that families are experiencing and the teams’ as well as the institution’s preparation for rendering this type of service. The balance between the offer of and demand for organs in Brazil will only be achieved by means of an efficient and effective structure in transplantation organ search services and increased donation consent rates to be obtained by adequate communication between interviewers and relatives

Taking account of dependent species in management of the Southern Ocean krill fishery: estimating crabeater seal abundance off east Antarctica

1. The crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga is considered to be a key species in the krill-based food web of the Southern Ocean. Reliable estimates of the abundance of this species are necessary to allow the development of multispecies, predator–prey models as a basis for management of the krill fishery in the Southern Ocean. 2. A survey of crabeater seal abundance was undertaken in 1500 000 km2 of pack-ice off east Antarctica between longitudes 64–150° E during the austral summer of 1999/2000. Sighting surveys, using double observer line transect methods, were conducted from an icebreaker and two helicopters to estimate the density of seals hauled out on the ice in survey strips. Satellite-linked dive recorders were deployed on a sample of seals to estimate the probability of seals being hauled out on the ice at the times of day when sighting surveys were conducted. Model-based inference, involving fitting a density surface, was used to infer densities in the entire survey region from estimates in the surveyed areas. 3. Crabeater seal abundance was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.4 million animals (with 95% confidence), with the most likely estimate slightly less than 1 million. 4. Synthesis and applications. The estimation of crabeater seal abundance in Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) management areas off east Antarctic where krill biomass has also been estimated recently provides the data necessary to begin extending from single-species to multispecies management of the krill fishery. Incorporation of all major sources of uncertainty allows a precautionary interpretation of crabeater abundance and demand for krill in keeping with CCAMLR’s precautionary approach to management. While this study focuses on the crabeater seal and management of living resources in the Southern Ocean, it has also led to technical and theoretical developments in survey methodology that have widespread potential application in ecological and resource management studies, and will contribute to a more fundamental understanding of the structure and function of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

On Wald Residuals in Generalized Linear Models

A rigorous asymptotic theory for Wald residuals in generalized linear models is not yet available. The authors provide matrix formulae of order O(n(-1)), where n is the sample size, for the first two moments of these residuals. The formulae can be applied to many regression models widely used in practice. The authors suggest adjusted Wald residuals to these models with approximately zero mean and unit variance. The expressions were used to analyze a real dataset. Some simulation results indicate that the adjusted Wald residuals are better approximated by the standard normal distribution than the Wald residuals.

BayGO: Bayesian analysis of ontology term enrichment in microarray data

Abstract Background The search for enriched (aka over-represented or enhanced) ontology terms in a list of genes obtained from microarray experiments is becoming a standard procedure for a system-level analysis. This procedure tries to summarize the information focussing on classification designs such as Gene Ontology, KEGG pathways, and so on, instead of focussing on individual genes. Although it is well known in statistics that association and significance are distinct concepts, only the former approach has been used to deal with the ontology term enrichment problem. Results BayGO implements a Bayesian approach to search for enriched terms from microarray data. The R source-code is freely available at http://blasto.iq.usp.br/~tkoide/BayGO in three versions: Linux, which can be easily incorporated into pre-existent pipelines; Windows, to be controlled interactively; and as a web-tool. The software was validated using a bacterial heat shock response dataset, since this stress triggers known system-level responses. Conclusion The Bayesian model accounts for the fact that, eventually, not all the genes from a given category are observable in microarray data due to low intensity signal, quality filters, genes that were not spotted and so on. Moreover, BayGO allows one to measure the statistical association between generic ontology terms and differential expression, instead of working only with the common significance analysis.

A GIS based model for solving the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions

[EN] In this paper, we have used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to solve the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions. Most of the papers connected with the competitive location problems consider that the demand is aggregated in a finite set of points. In other few cases, the models suppose that the demand is distributed along the feasible region according to a functional form, mainly a uniform distribution. In this case, in addition to the discrete and uniform demand distributions we have considered that the demand is represented by a population surface model, that is, a raster map where each pixel has associated a value corresponding to the population living in the area that it covers...

Wohlfahrtswirkung und Freizeitnutzung von öffentlichem Grün am Beispiel der Stadtparks in Mainz

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Wohlfahrtswirkung und die Freizeitnutzung des öffentlichen Grüns durch die einheimische Bevölkerung in Mainz am Beispiel von Volkspark, Stadtpark und Hartenbergpark und formuliert relevante Folgerungen für die Planung zur Verbesserung des Freizeitwertes. Zunächst wurde der aktuelle Stellenwert des öffentlichen Grüns für die Freizeit analysiert. Dies erfolgte im Rahmen einer Umfrage mit geschlossenen Fragebögen. In Mainz besteht ein großer Bedarf an öffentlichem Grün. Die Grünausstattung wird von der Stadtbevölkerung nur zurückhaltend beurteilt. Einen besonderen Stellenwert für die Freizeit nehmen ausgedehnte Parkanlagen und Wälder ein; dies muss in der Freizeitplanung für Mainz berücksichtigt werden.Die Freizeitnutzung der Besucher der drei Parks wurde durch eine Fragebogenaktion direkt vor Ort ermittelt. Außerdem wurde an verschiedenen Tagen die Besucherfrequenz erhoben. Es wurde das Besucherverhalten bezüglich Verkehrsmittel, Entfernung des Wohnortes, Dauer und Häufigkeit der Besuche analysiert. Darüber hinaus wurde die Zufriedenheit der Besucher mit den Parks bezüglich verschiedener Einrichtungen und der Grüngestaltung untersucht.Die Besucherfrequenz wurde an drei verschiedenen Tagen von 9-19 Uhr in jedem der drei Parks erhoben. Mit Hilfe dieser Daten wurde die Anzahl der Besucher am Tage erhoben, und die Besuchergruppen bezüglich Alter und Gruppengröße erfasst.Im Unterschied zu früheren Studien anderer Parks benutzen immer mehr Besucher das Auto zum Erreichen des Parks, und immer weniger Besucher kommen zu Fuß. Nachmittags werden die Parks am stärksten frequentiert.Alle drei Parks werden überwiegend von Mainzern besucht. Der beachtliche Besucheranteil von außerhalb der Stadt Mainz in Volkspark und Stadtpark gegenüber dem Hartenbergpark weist auf die überregionale Bedeutung beider Parks hin. Aus den Ergebnissen wurden planungsrelevante Folgerungen für die Ausstattung abgeleitet. Verbesserungswürdig erscheint besonders der Volkspark, dessen nördliche Hälfte durch mangelhafte Ausstattung nur wenig genutzt wird, seine südliche Hälfte, auf welche sich die gesamte Ausstattung konzentriert, wird stark frequentiert. Mit Hilfe der aus den Untersuchungen abgeleiteten Folgerungen erhalten die Planungsträger im Bereich der Freizeitnutzung aktuelle Entscheidungsgrundlagen.

Etablierung eines high content imaging-basierten in vitro Testsystems zur Evaluierung genotoxischer Substanzen

Zur Registrierung von Pharmazeutika ist eine umfassende Analyse ihres genotoxischen Potentials von Nöten. Aufgrund der Vielzahl genotoxischer Mechanismen und deren resultierenden Schäden wird ein gestaffeltes Testdesign durch die ICH-Richtlinie S2(R1) „Guidance on genotoxicity testing and data interpretation for pharmaceuticals intended for human use S2(R1)“ definiert, um alle genotoxischen Substanzen zu identifizieren. Die Standardtestbatterie ist in der frühen Phase der Arzneimittelentwicklung aufgrund des geringen Durchsatzes und des Mangels an verfügbarer Substanzmenge vermindert anwendbar. Darüber hinaus verfügen in vitro Genotoxizitätstests in Säugerzellen über eine relativ geringe Spezifität. Für eine vollständige Sicherheitsbeurteilung wird eine in vivo Testung auf Kanzerogenität benötigt. Allerdings sind diese Testsysteme kosten- und zeitintensiv. Aufgrund dessen zielen neue Forschungsansätze auf die Verbesserung der Prädiktivität und die Erfassung des genotoxischen Potentials bereits in der frühen Phase der Arzneimittelentwicklung ab. Die high content imaging (HCI)-Technologie offeriert einen Ansatz zur Verbesserung des Durchsatzes verglichen mit der Standardtestbatterie. Zusätzlich hat ein Zell-basiertes Modell den Vorteil Daten relativ schnell bei gleichzeitig geringem Bedarf an Substanzmenge zu generieren. Demzufolge ermöglichen HCI-basierte Testsysteme eine Prüfung in der frühen Phase der pharmazeutischen Arzneimittelentwicklung. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist die Entwicklung eines neuen, spezifischen und sensitiven HCI-basierten Testsytems für Genotoxine und Progenotoxine in vitro unter Verwendung von HepG2-Zellen gewesen. Aufgrund ihrer begrenzten metabolischen Kapazität wurde ein kombiniertes System bestehend aus HepG2-Zellen und einem metabolischen Aktivierungssystem zur Testung progenotoxischer Substanzen etabliert. Basierend auf einer vorherigen Genomexpressionsprofilierung (Boehme et al., 2011) und einer Literaturrecherche wurden die folgenden neun unterschiedlichen Proteine der DNA-Schadensantwort als putative Marker der Substanz-induzierten Genotoxizität ausgewählt: p-p53 (Ser15), p21, p-H2AX (Ser139), p-Chk1 (Ser345) p-ATM (Ser1981), p-ATR (Ser428), p-CDC2 (Thr14/Tyr15), GADD45A und p-Chk2 (Thr68). Die Expression bzw. Aktivierung dieser Proteine wurde 48 h nach Behandlung mit den (pro-) genotoxischen Substanzen (Cyclophosphamid, 7,12-Dimethylbenz[a]anthracen, Aflatoxin B1, 2-Acetylaminofluoren, Methylmethansulfonat, Actinomycin D, Etoposid) und den nicht-genotoxischen Substanzen (D-Mannitol, Phenforminhydrochlorid, Progesteron) unter Verwendung der HCI-Technologie ermittelt. Die beste Klassifizierung wurde bei Verwendung der folgenden fünf der ursprünglichen neun putativen Markerproteine erreicht: p-p53 (Ser15), p21, p-H2AX (Ser139), p-Chk1 (Ser345) und p-ATM (Ser1981). In einem zweiten Teil dieser Arbeit wurden die fünf ausgewählten Proteine mit Substanzen, welche von dem European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) zur Beurteilung der Leistung neuer oder modifizierter in vitro Genotoxizitätstests empfohlen sind, getestet. Dieses neue Testsystem erzielte eine Sensitivität von 80 % und eine Spezifität von 86 %, was in einer Prädiktivität von 84 % resultierte. Der synergetische Effekt dieser fünf Proteine ermöglicht die Identifizierung von genotoxischen Substanzen, welche DNA-Schädigungen durch eine Vielzahl von unterschiedlichen Mechanismen induzieren, mit einem hohen Erfolg. Zusammenfassend konnte ein hochprädiktives Prüfungssystem mit metabolischer Aktivierung für ein breites Spektrum potenziell genotoxischer Substanzen generiert werden, welches sich aufgrund des hohen Durchsatzes, des geringen Zeitaufwandes und der geringen Menge benötigter Substanz zur Substanzpriorisierung und -selektion in der Phase der Leitstrukturoptimierung eignet und darüber hinaus mechanistische Hinweise auf die genotoxische Wirkung der Testsubstanz liefert.

Private Publishing in Moscow and St. Petersburg: Historical Background, Present Situation and Trends"

This research was a complex study of the economic and socio-cultural aspects of the development of Russian private publishing in the second half of the19th and early 20th centuries, during the periods of 'war communism' and the New Economic Policy of 1917 to 1930, and during the reform of book publishing in 1986-1999. Conclusions about private book publishing in Moscow and St. Petersburg were extrapolated to Russia-wide problems of the development of this field. Svichenskaya sees her main achievement as having identified the economic and legal concepts behind the development of private book publishing over the period in question in the context of state and corporate regulation of publishing. Here the state was the main influence on its development and there was a paradox in the relations between the state authorities and private publishers, in that the latter constantly suffered from repression by the former but at the same time were dependent on state support. The research identified the administrative process of the liquidation of private publishing at the end of the 1920s and showed that its present flourishing is closely linked with the establishment of a preferential mode for the development of this sector. Private publishing now represents around 80% of domestic publishing, in terms both of the number of publishing houses and of the number of volumes published, and so plays the major role in satisfying the demand for books in Russia. Svichenskaya predicts that in the coming years private publishing will see a further concentration of growth and a tendency to monopolies and also the increasing specialisation of the publishing repertoire. She outlines a suggested concept of state management in publishing and ways to optimise this. In the transitional period of adaptation to the market regulation of publishing, these include a continuing degree of state protectionism, the creation of a favourable investment climate, privatisation of the printing companies with the aim of modernising these, and the development of coordinated corporate policies.