Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

The impact of price expectations on consumer's behavior in frequently purchased goods markets: empirical evidence and implications

Este trabalho investiga como os padrões de compras de consumidores de bens estocáveis são afetados por suas expectativas de preços. Usando um modelo dinâmico padrão de maximização da utilidade, deriva-se uma expressão analítica para as compras dos consumidores como uma função das suas expectativas em relação aos preços futuros. Em seguida, uma versão mais tratável do modelo é construída, de forma a ilustrar graficamente como os diferentes tipos de expectativas de preços implicam diferentes padrões de compras dos consumidores. Além disso, na aplicação empírica, investigo qual o modelo de expectativas de preços, entre aqueles comumente utilizados na literatura, é consistente com os dados. Por fim, encontra-se suficiente heterogeneidade em expectativa de preços dos consumidores. Mostra-se que famílias de pequeno porte acreditam que os preços seguem um processo de Markov de primeira ordem, enquanto famílias de alta renda são racionais.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Fashion as consumer entrepreneurship : emergent risk culture, social network markets, and the launch of 'Vogue' in China

China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

Foreign wine consumption in Australia : the influence of consumer perceptions to foreign cultures on wine choice

Research has shown that while some people favor foreign- sourced products, others prefer to purchase goods made in their own country. From the perspective of the Australian wine market, consumption of wine has been consistently increasing in recent years. While sales of Australian made wine is booming, sales of imported sources is also increasing in terms of dollar value. This paper examines the effect of consumer ethnocentrism and animosity on willingness to buy foreign wine products, in an effort to better understand the factors involved in the consumer decision making process when purchasing wine products.

Fashion as consumer entrepreneurship : emergent risk culture, social network markets, and the launch of Vogue in China

China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

Luxury fashion : the significance of luxury fashion goods for sustainable fashion design

This paper extends the work of “Luxury fashion : the role of innovation as a key contributing factor in the development of luxury fashion goods and sustainable fashion design” (Finn, 2011). The discussion here begins with the observation that post consumer textile waste remains a major obstacle in realising a model of sustainable fashion design and production however, amongst the millions of tonnes of textile and clothing sent to landfill each year there is little evidence of authentic luxury branded goods ending life as landfill. The sustainable fashion movement often support approaches such as fashion up-cycle, re-cycle and cradle to cradle solutions. This paper argues that the priority should be to break the cycle of consumerism as an immediate intervention in ongoing unsustainable (and in some cases unethical) practices involved in the production of fashion goods. The connections between maker and consumer are explored through object analysis and the findings raise questions of the separation between luxury fashion goods and fashion goods that bear luxury fashion branding. This paper suggests that unethical and subversive exploitation of these connections may be used to promote increased consumerism while at the same time purporting exclusivity and superior craftsmanship.

The economics of credence goods : an experiment on the role of liability, verifiability, reputation and competition

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market breakdown. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets. While theory predicts that liability or verifiability yield efficiency, we find that liability has a crucial, but verifiability at best a minor, effect. Allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence, as predicted. Seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade, but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated. (JEL D12, D82)

Regulating unilateral supermarket misconduct as customer/acquirer of goods and services

Supermarkets in Australia may have substantial market power as buyers in wholesale markets for grocery products. They may also have substantial bargaining power in negotiating contracts with their suppliers of grocery products. The Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth) (CCA) regulates misconduct by supermarkets as customer/acquirers in three ways. First, s 46(1) of the CCA prohibits the ‘taking advantage’ of buyer power for the purpose of damaging a competitor, preventing entry or deterring or preventing competitive conduct. Secondly, s 21 of the ACL prohibits unconscionable conduct in business–to–business transactions. Thirdly, Pt IVB of the CCA provides for the promulgation of mandatory and voluntary industry codes of conduct. Since 1 July 2015 the conduct of supermarkets as customer/acquirers has been regulated by the Food and Grocery Industry Code of Conduct. This article examines these three different approaches. It considers them against the background of the misconduct at issue in ACCC v Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd which the ACCC chose to litigate as an unconscionable conduct case, rather than a misuse of market power case. The article also considers the strengths and weaknesses of each of the three approaches and concludes that while the three approaches address different problems there is scope for overlap and all three should be retained for compete coverage.

Exploring the relationship between social network sites and the consumption of cultural goods through the lens of affordances

This thesis presents research theorising the use of social network sites (SNS) for the consumption of cultural goods. SNS are Internet-based applications that enable people to connect, interact, discover, and share user-generated content. They have transformed communication practices and are facilitating users to present their identity online through the disclosure of information on a profile. SNS are especially effective for propagating content far and wide within a network of connections. Cultural goods constitute hedonic experiential goods with cultural, artistic, and entertainment value, such as music, books, films, and fashion. Their consumption is culturally dependant and they have unique characteristics that distinguish them from utilitarian products. The way in which users express their identity on SNS is through the sharing of cultural interests and tastes. This makes cultural good consumption vulnerable to the exchange of content and ideas that occurs across an expansive network of connections within these social systems. This study proposes the lens of affordances to theorise the use of social network sites for the consumption of cultural goods. Qualitative case study research using two phases of data collection is proposed in the application of affordances to the research topic. The interaction between task, technology, and user characteristics is investigated by examining each characteristic in detail, before investigating the actual interaction between the user and the artifact for a particular purpose. The study contributes to knowledge by (i) improving our understanding of the affordances of social network sites for the consumption of cultural goods, (ii) demonstrating the role of task, technology and user characteristics in mediating user behaviour for user-artifact interactions, (iii) explaining the technical features and user activities important to the process of consuming cultural goods using social network sites, and (iv) theorising the consumption of cultural goods using SNS by presenting a theoretical research model which identifies empirical indicators of model constructs and maps out affordance dependencies and hierarchies. The study also provides a systematic research process for applying the concept of affordances to the study of system use.

Burning a hole in the budget: tobacco spending and its crowd-out of other goods.

Smoking is an expensive habit. Smoking households spend, on average, more than $US1000 annually on cigarettes. When a family member quits, in addition to the former smoker's improved long-term health, families benefit because savings from reduced cigarette expenditures can be allocated to other goods. For households in which some members continue to smoke, smoking expenditures crowd-out other purchases, which may affect other household members, as well as the smoker. We empirically analyse how expenditures on tobacco crowd-out consumption of other goods, estimating the patterns of substitution and complementarity between tobacco products and other categories of household expenditure. We use the Consumer Expenditure Survey data for the years 1995-2001, which we complement with regional price data and state cigarette prices. We estimate a consumer demand system that includes several main expenditure categories (cigarettes, food, alcohol, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care) and controls for socioeconomic variables and other sources of observable heterogeneity. Descriptive data indicate that, comparing smokers to nonsmokers, smokers spend less on housing. Results from the demand system indicate that as the price of cigarettes rises, households increase the quantity of food purchased, and, in some samples, reduce the quantity of apparel and housing purchased.