Asymptotic Expansion of Solution for Almost Regular and Weakly Perturbed Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

Л. И. Каранджулов, Н. Д. Сиракова - В работата се прилага методът на Поанкаре за решаване на почти регулярни нелинейни гранични задачи при общи гранични условия. Предполага се, че диференциалната система съдържа сингулярна функция по отношение на малкия параметър. При определени условия се доказва асимптотичност на решението на поставената задача.

Asymptotic Behaviour of a Supercritical Galton-Watson Process with Controlled Binomial Migration

AMS subject classification: 60J80, 62F12, 62P10.

The Asymptotic Behaviour of the First Eigenvalue of Linear Second-Order Elliptic Equations in Divergente Form

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35J70, 35P15.

Asymptotic Analysis of a Schrödinger-Poisson System with Quantum Wells and Macroscopic Nonlinearities in Dimension 1

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35Q02, 35Q05, 35Q10, 35B40.

On the Asymptotic Distribution of Closed Orbits for a Class of Open Billiards

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 37D40.

Asymptotic analysis of combined breather-kink modes in a Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain

We find approximations to travelling breather solutions of the one-dimensional Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) lattice. Both bright breather and dark breather solutions are found. We find that the existence of localised (bright) solutions depends upon the coefficients of cubic and quartic terms of the potential energy, generalising an earlier inequality derived by James [CR Acad Sci Paris 332, 581, (2001)]. We use the method of multiple scales to reduce the equations of motion for the lattice to a nonlinear Schr{\"o}dinger equation at leading order and hence construct an asymptotic form for the breather. We show that in the absence of a cubic potential energy term, the lattice supports combined breathing-kink waveforms. The amplitude of breathing-kinks can be arbitrarily small, as opposed to traditional monotone kinks, which have a nonzero minimum amplitude in such systems. We also present numerical simulations of the lattice, verifying the shape and velocity of the travelling waveforms, and confirming the long-lived nature of all such modes.

Asymptotic stability of a coupled Advection-Diffusion-Reaction system arising in bioreactor processes.

In this work, we perform an asymptotic analysis of a coupled system of two Advection-Diffusion-Reaction equations with Danckwerts boundary conditions, which models the interaction between a microbial population (e.g., bacterias), called biomass, and a diluted organic contaminant (e.g., nitrates), called substrate, in a continuous flow bioreactor. This system exhibits, under suitable conditions, two stable equilibrium states: one steady state in which the biomass becomes extinct and no reaction is produced, called washout, and another steady state, which corresponds to the partial elimination of the substrate. We use the method of linearization to give sufficient conditions for the asymptotic stability of the two stable equilibrium configurations. Finally, we compare our asymptotic analysis with the usual asymptotic analysis associated to the continuous bioreactor when it is modeled with ordinary differential equations.

Forward Smoothing Using Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively. Essentially, it is an on-line or "forward only" implementation of a forward filtering backward smoothing SMC algorithm proposed by Doucet, Godsill and Andrieu (2000). Compared to the standard \emph{path space} SMC estimator whose asymptotic variance increases quadratically with time even under favorable mixing assumptions, the non asymptotic variance of the proposed SMC estimator only increases linearly with time. We show how this allows us to perform recursive parameter estimation using an SMC implementation of an on-line version of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm which does not suffer from the particle path degeneracy problem.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Diagnostic Test for the Mixing Distribution in a Generalised Linear Mixed Model

We introduce a diagnostic test for the mixing distribution in a generalised linear mixed model. The test is based on the difference between the marginal maximum likelihood and conditional maximum likelihood estimates of a subset of the fixed effects in the model. We derive the asymptotic variance of this difference, and propose a test statistic that has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis that the mixing distribution is correctly specified. For the important special case of the logistic regression model with random intercepts, we evaluate via simulation the power of the test in finite samples under several alternative distributional forms for the mixing distribution. We illustrate the method by applying it to data from a clinical trial investigating the effects of hormonal contraceptives in women.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

Analysis of differential gene expression based on Bayesian estimation of variance

Gene expression is arguably the most important indicator of biological function. Thus identifying differentially expressed genes is one of the main aims of high throughout studies that use microarray and RNAseq platforms to study deregulated cellular pathways. There are many tools for analysing differentia gene expression from transciptomic datasets. The major challenge of this topic is to estimate gene expression variance due to the high amount of ‘background noise’ that is generated from biological equipment and the lack of biological replicates. Bayesian inference has been widely used in the bioinformatics field. In this work, we reveal that the prior knowledge employed in the Bayesian framework also helps to improve the accuracy of differential gene expression analysis when using a small number of replicates. We have developed a differential analysis tool that uses Bayesian estimation of the variance of gene expression for use with small numbers of biological replicates. Our method is more consistent when compared to the widely used cyber-t tool that successfully introduced the Bayesian framework to differential analysis. We also provide a user-friendly web based Graphic User Interface for biologists to use with microarray and RNAseq data. Bayesian inference can compensate for the instability of variance caused when using a small number of biological replicates by using pseudo replicates as prior knowledge. We also show that our new strategy to select pseudo replicates will improve the performance of the analysis. - See more at: http://www.eurekaselect.com/node/138761/article#sthash.VeK9xl5k.dpuf

Uniform stability of a particle approximation of the optimal filter derivative

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity, or derivative, of the optimal filter with respect to the static parameters of the state-space model; for instance, in order to obtain maximum likelihood model parameters of interest, or to compute the optimal controller in an optimal control problem. In Poyiadjis et al. [2011] an original particle algorithm to compute the filter derivative was proposed and it was shown using numerical examples that the particle estimate was numerically stable in the sense that it did not deteriorate over time. In this paper we substantiate this claim with a detailed theoretical study. Lp bounds and a central limit theorem for this particle approximation of the filter derivative are presented. It is further shown that under mixing conditions these Lp bounds and the asymptotic variance characterized by the central limit theorem are uniformly bounded with respect to the time index. We demon- strate the performance predicted by theory with several numerical examples. We also use the particle approximation of the filter derivative to perform online maximum likelihood parameter estimation for a stochastic volatility model.