Prevendo mudanças climáticas: resposta da meiofauna a mudanças na distribuição espacial de espécies-chave

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

GC/MS-Meßsystem für Nicht-Methan-Kohlenwasserstoffe

Im Rahmen der Projekte CARIBIC ('Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container') und INDOEX ('Indian Ocean Experi-ment') wurde ein Gaschromatograph mit Massenspektrometer zur Analyse von Luftproben auf Nicht-Methan-Kohlenwasserstoffe (NMKW) im ppb- und ppt-Bereich entwickelt. Während INDOEX erfolgte die Probennahme auf dem Forschungsschiff Ronald Brown, während CARIBIC mit einem automatischen Probensammler an Bord eines Passagierflugzeuges (Boeing 767-ER, LTU). Die NMKW-Meßergebnisse wurden zusammen mit Ergebnissen von Mes-sungen von Kohlenmonoxid (CO, einschließlich Isotopenzusam-mensetzung), Ozon (O3), Methan (CH4), Kohlendioxid (CO2), Distickstoffmonoxid (N2O), Schwefelhexafluorid (SF6) und Aerosoleigenschaften sowie meteorologischen Daten inter-pretiert. Während INDOEX (Februar / März 1999) wurde in der maritimen Grenzschicht (MBL) des Indischen Ozeans (IO) eine starke Variabilität diverser Spurengase beobachtet, die teilweise durch regionale Emissionen hervorgerufen wurde, die stärkste Variabilität war jedoch durch Langstrecken-transport aus mittleren Breiten der Nordhemisphäre bedingt. Aufgrund der Abweichungen vom klimatologischen Mittel, sollten regionale Quellen die MBL des IO im allgemeinen stärker beeinflussen. Die Einteilung des IO in meteorologi-sche Luftmassenregime wurde bestätigt. Starke Spurengasgra-dienten an der innertropischen Konvergenzzone (ITCZ) zeigen, daß die ITCZ in erster Linie den Austausch von Luftmassen zwischen den Hemisphären behindert. Bei CARIBIC werden Messungen von Spurengasen (ein-(schließlich NMKW) und Aerosoleigenschaften auf Flügen in der oberen Troposphäre / unteren Stratosphäre durchgeführt. Während eines Flug über Afrika wurden der Einfluß von durch Konvektion in die obere Troposphäre eingebrachten, frischen Abgasen aus Biomassenverbrennung nachgewiesen. Andere Luft-massen wurden durch Emissionen von Erdgas bzw. durch die Stratosphäre beeinflußt.

Aerosol-cloud interactions studied with a chemistry-climate model

This study aims at a comprehensive understanding of the effects of aerosol-cloud interactions and their effects on cloud properties and climate using the chemistry-climate model EMAC. In this study, CCN activation is regarded as the dominant driver in aerosol-cloud feedback loops in warm clouds. The CCN activation is calculated prognostically using two different cloud droplet nucleation parameterizations, the STN and HYB CDN schemes. Both CDN schemes account for size and chemistry effects on the droplet formation based on the same aerosol properties. The calculation of the solute effect (hygroscopicity) is the main difference between the CDN schemes. The kappa-method is for the first time incorporated into Abdul-Razzak and Ghan activation scheme (ARG) to calculate hygroscopicity and critical supersaturation of aerosols (HYB), and the performance of the modied scheme is compared with the osmotic coefficient model (STN), which is the standard in the ARG scheme. Reference simulations (REF) with the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration have also been carried out in order to understand the effects of aerosol-cloud feedbacks. In addition, since the calculated cloud coverage is an important determinant of cloud radiative effects and is influencing the nucleation process two cloud cover parameterizations (i.e., a relative humidity threshold; RH-CLC and a statistical cloud cover scheme; ST-CLC) have been examined together with the CDN schemes, and their effects on the simulated cloud properties and relevant climate parameters have been investigated. The distinct cloud droplet spectra show strong sensitivity to aerosol composition effects on cloud droplet formation in all particle sizes, especially for the Aitken mode. As Aitken particles are the major component of the total aerosol number concentration and CCN, and are most sensitive to aerosol chemical composition effect (solute effect) on droplet formation, the activation of Aitken particles strongly contribute to total cloud droplet formation and thereby providing different cloud droplet spectra. These different spectra influence cloud structure, cloud properties, and climate, and show regionally varying sensitivity to meteorological and geographical condition as well as the spatiotemporal aerosol properties (i.e., particle size, number, and composition). The changes responding to different CDN schemes are more pronounced at lower altitudes than higher altitudes. Among regions, the subarctic regions show the strongest changes, as the lower surface temperature amplifies the effects of the activated aerosols; in contrast, the Sahara desert, where is an extremely dry area, is less influenced by changes in CCN number concentration. The aerosol-cloud coupling effects have been examined by comparing the prognostic CDN simulations (STN, HYB) with the reference simulation (REF). Most pronounced effects are found in the cloud droplet number concentration, cloud water distribution, and cloud radiative effect. The aerosol-cloud coupling generally increases cloud droplet number concentration; this decreases the efficiency of the formation of weak stratiform precipitation, and increases the cloud water loading. These large-scale changes lead to larger cloud cover and longer cloud lifetime, and contribute to high optical thickness and strong cloud cooling effects. This cools the Earth's surface, increases atmospheric stability, and reduces convective activity. These changes corresponding to aerosol-cloud feedbacks are also differently simulated depending on the cloud cover scheme. The ST-CLC scheme is more sensitive to aerosol-cloud coupling, since this scheme uses a tighter linkage of local dynamics and cloud water distributions in cloud formation process than the RH-CLC scheme. For the calculated total cloud cover, the RH-CLC scheme simulates relatively similar pattern to observations than the ST-CLC scheme does, but the overall properties (e.g., total cloud cover, cloud water content) in the RH simulations are overestimated, particularly over ocean. This is mainly originated from the difference in simulated skewness in each scheme: the RH simulations calculate negatively skewed distributions of cloud cover and relevant cloud water, which is similar to that of the observations, while the ST simulations yield positively skewed distributions resulting in lower mean values than the RH-CLC scheme does. The underestimation of total cloud cover over ocean, particularly over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) relates to systematic defficiency of the prognostic calculation of skewness in the current set-ups of the ST-CLC scheme.rnOverall, the current EMAC model set-ups perform better over continents for all combinations of the cloud droplet nucleation and cloud cover schemes. To consider aerosol-cloud feedbacks, the HYB scheme is a better method for predicting cloud and climate parameters for both cloud cover schemes than the STN scheme. The RH-CLC scheme offers a better simulation of total cloud cover and the relevant parameters with the HYB scheme and single-moment microphysics (REF) than the ST-CLC does, but is not very sensitive to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Deep-sea sediment core PS2644 record from the southern Greenland Sea

The PS2644 deep-sea core sequence, retrieved from the northwestern margin of Iceland and covering the last 86 ka, exhibits high sedimentation rates during the last glacial cycle that allow the clear distinction of Greenland stadial (GS)/ interstadial (GI) cycles in the various proxy records. Abundance records of rhyolitic, basaltic and tachylytic tephra grains reveal several maxima. Tephra grains of all types were geochemically analyzed in 44 levels. A total of 92 tephras with a distinctive character have been defined within the glacial sequence of gravity core PS2644-5, whereas the Holocene record is dominated by reworked Vedde Ash grains and not suitable for tephra stratigraphic work. Of the 92 tephras only 19 geochemical populations have been linked with confidence to previously defined tephras such as from the Vedde Ash, Faeroe Marine Ash Zones (FMAZ) II and III and North Atlantic Ash Zone (NAAZ) II. For the glacial period informal names were given to 78 new tephras, most of which are basaltic tephras. Several of these layers have a unique geochemical character and might become new chronostratigraphic markers in the North Atlantic region. Linking the tephra populations to the volcanic system producing them, respectively, revealed that Icelandic eruptions dominate with 83 tephra geochemical populations and Jan Mayen with 9. Around 48% of the informal tephra layers linked to the Icelandic volcanic province are produced from either the Grimsvötn or the Veidivötn-Bardarbunga volcanic systems. The intervals spanning from Greenland Stadial (GS) 3 to Greenland Interstadial (GI) 4 (24.5-29 ka BP), from GI 8 to GS 10 (36.9-40.5 ka BP) and from GI 14 to GI 15.2 (50-56 ka BP) are the periods with the highest number of eruptions, all of which are associated with known tephra zones.

Magnetic properties of Cenozoic MORB and Cretaceous MORB from DSDP and ODP holes

The fact that the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) intensity of mid-oceanic-ridge basalt (MORB) samples shows systematic variations as a function of age has long been recognized: maximum as well as average intensities are generally high for very young samples, falling off rather rapidly to less than half the recent values in samples between 10 and 30 Ma, whereupon they slowly rise in the early Tertiary and Cretaceous to values that approach those of the very young samples. NRM intensities measured in this study follow the same trends as those observed in previous publications. In this study, we take a statistical approach and examine whether this pattern can be explained by variations in one or more of all previously proposed mechanisms: chemical composition of the magnetic minerals, abundance of these magnetization carriers, vectorial superposition of parallel or antiparallel components of magnetization, magnetic grain or domain size patterns, low-temperature oxidation to titanomaghemite, or geomagnetic field behavior. We find that the samples do not show any compositional, petrological, rock-magnetic, or paleomagnetic patterns that can explain the trends. Geomagnetic field intensity is the only effect that cannot be directly tested on the same samples, but it shows a similar pattern as our measured NRM intensities. We therefore conclude that the geomagnetic field strength was, on-average, significantly greater during the Cretaceous than during the Oligocene and Miocene.

Water temperature reconstruction for Terminations I and II of sediment core MD01-2378

We present centennial records of sea surface and upper thermocline temperatures in Core MD01-2378 from the Timor Sea, which provide new insights into the variability of the Indonesian outflow across the last two glacial terminations. Mg/Ca in Globigerinoides ruber (white s. s.) indicates an overall increase of 3.2 °C in sea surface temperature (SST) over Termination I. Following an early Holocene plateau at 11.3-6.4 ka, SSTs cooled by 0.6 °C during the middle to late Holocene (6.4-0.7 ka). The early Holocene warming occurred in phase with increasing northern hemisphere summer insolation, coinciding with northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, enhanced boreal summer monsoon and expansion of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Thermocline temperatures (Pulleniatina obliquiloculata Mg/Ca) gradually decreased from 24.5 to 21.5 °C since 10.3 ka, reflecting intensification of a cool thermocline throughflow. The vertical structure of the upper ocean in the Timor Sea evolved in similar fashion during the Holocene and MIS5e, although the duration of SST plateaux differed (11.3 to 6.4 ka in Termination I and from 129 to 119 ka in Termination II), which was probably due to the more intense northern hemisphere summer insolation during MIS 5e. During both terminations, SST increased simultaneously in the southern high latitudes and the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, suggesting virtually instantaneous atmospheric climate feedbacks between the high and low latitudes.

Stable carbon and hydrogen isotope record of n-Alkanoic acids of sediment core SO189/2_144KL

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is a key site for the global hydrologic cycle, and modern observations indicate that both the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation exert strong influence on its regional hydrologic characteristics. Detailed insight into the natural range of IPWP dynamics and underlying climate mechanisms is, however, limited by the spatial and temporal coverage of climate data. In particular, long-term (multimillennial) precipitation patterns of the western IPWP, a key location for IOZM dynamics, are poorly understood. To help rectify this, we have reconstructed rainfall changes over Northwest Sumatra (western IPWP, Indian Ocean) throughout the past 24,000 y based on the stable hydrogen and carbon isotopic compositions (dD and d13C, respectively) of terrestrial plant waxes. As a general feature of western IPWP hydrology, our data suggest similar rainfall amounts during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, contradicting previous claims that precipitation increased across the IPWP in response to deglacial changes in sea level and/or the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We attribute this discrepancy to regional differences in topography and different responses to glacioeustatically forced changes in coastline position within the continental IPWP. During the Holocene, our data indicate considerable variations in rainfall amount. Comparison of our isotope time series to paleoclimate records from the Indian Ocean realm reveals previously unrecognized fluctuations of the Indian Ocean precipitation dipole during the Holocene, indicating that oscillations of the IOZM mean state have been a constituent of western IPWP rainfall over the past ten thousand years.

Biogenic opal content in bulk sediments of ODP Leg 181 sites, southwest Pacific

Biogenic opal concentrations were measured on bulk sediments recovered at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1123, 1124, and 1125 off North Island of New Zealand in the southwest Pacific. Site 1124 showed opal contents ranging from approximately 2 to 8 wt%, which is relatively high compared to other sites. The subbottom maximum in biogenic opal content located between 1.0 and 1.5 m composite depth can be recognized at each site. Patterns of biogenic opal content in the uppermost parts of the cores appear to reflect the surface ocean settings relating to the migration of the Subtropical Convergence Zone.

A time-slice study in Heinrich Stadial 1 and Mid Holocene sediment cores off northern Senegal

Sediment dynamics in limnic, fluvial and marine environments can be assessed by granulometric and rock-magnetic methodologies. While classical grain-size analysis by sieving or settling mainly bears information on composition and transport, the magnetic mineral assemblages reflect to a larger extent the petrology and weathering conditions in the sediment source areas. Here, we combine both methods to investigate Late Quaternary marine sediments from five cores along a transect across the continental slope off Senegal. This region near the modern summer Intertropical Convergence Zone is particularly sensitive to climate change and receives sediments from several aeolian, fluvial and marine sources. From each of the investigated five GeoB sediment cores (494-2956 m water depth) two time slices were processed which represent contrasting climatic conditions: the arid Heinrich Stadial 1 (~ 15 kyr BP) and the humid Mid Holocene (~ 6 kyr BP). Each sediment sample was split into 16 grain-size fractions ranging from 1.6 to 500 µm. Concentration and grain-size indicative magnetic parameters (susceptibility, SIRM, HIRM, ARM and ARM/IRM) were determined at room temperature for each of these fractions. The joint consideration of whole sediment and magnetic mineral grain-size distributions allows to address several important issues: (i) distinction of two aeolian sediment fractions, one carried by the north-easterly trade winds (40-63 µm) and the other by the overlying easterly Harmattan wind (10-20 µm) as well as a fluvial fraction assigned to the Senegal River (< 10 µm); (ii) identification of three terrigenous sediment source areas: southern Sahara and Sahel dust (low fine-grained magnetite amounts and a comparatively high haematite content), dust from Senegalese coastal dunes (intermediate fine-grained magnetite and haematite contents) and soils from the upper reaches of the Senegal River (high fine-grained magnetite content); (iii) detection of partial diagenetic dissolution of fine magnetite particles as a function of organic input and shore distance; (iv) analysis of magnetic properties of marine carbonates dominating the grain-size fractions 63-500 µm.