A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Fast pyrolysis in circulating fluidized bed: feasibility study

Today the limitedness of fossil fuel resources is clearly realized. For this reason there is a strong focus throughout the world on shifting from fossil fuel based energy system to biofuel based energy system. In this respect Finland with its proven excellent forestry capabilities has a great potential to accomplish this goal. It is regarded that one of the most efficient ways of wood biomass utilization is to use it as a feedstock for fast pyrolysis process. By means of this process solid biomass is converted into liquid fuel called bio-oil which can be burnt at power plants, used for hydrogen generation through a catalytic steam reforming process and as a source of valuable chemical compounds. Nowadays different configurations of this process have found their applications in several pilot plants worldwide. However the circulating fluidized bed configuration is regarded as the one with the highest potential to be commercialized. In the current Master’s Thesis a feasibility study of circulating fluidized bed fast pyrolysis process utilizing Scots pine logs as a raw material was conducted. The production capacity of the process is 100 000 tonne/year of bio-oil. The feasibility study is divided into two phases: a process design phase and economic feasibility analysis phase. The process design phase consists of mass and heat balance calculations, equipment sizing, estimation of pressure drops in the pipelines and development of plant layout. This phase resulted in creation of process flow diagrams, equipment list and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that calculates the process mass and heat balances depending on the bio-oil production capacity which can be set by a user. These documents are presented in the current report as appendices. In the economic feasibility analysis phase there were at first calculated investment and operating costs of the process. Then using these costs there was calculated the price of bio-oil which is required to reach the values of internal rate of return of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%.

The estimation of the return on firms’ investments – as to ISO 9001

The aim of this paper was to estimate the return on investment in QMS (quality management systems) certification undertaken in Portuguese firms, according to the ISO 9000 series. A total of 426 certified Portuguese firms were surveyed. The response rate was 61.03 percent. The different payback periods were validated through statistical analysis and the relationship between expected and perceived payback periods was discussed. This study suggests that a firm’s sector of activity, size and degree of internationalization are related to the length of the investment in QMS certification recovery period. Furthermore, our findings suggest, that the time taken to obtain the certification is not directly related to the economic component of the certification. The majority of Portuguese firms (58.9%) took up to three years to recoup their investment and 35.5% of companies said they had not yet recovered the initial investment made. The recoup of investment was measured by the increase in the number of customers and consequent volume of deliveries, improved profitability and productivity of the company, improvement of competitive position and performance (cost savings), reduction in the number of external complaints and internal defects/scrap, achievement of some important clientele, among others. We compared our work to similar studies undertaken in other countries. This paper provides a contribution to the research related to the return on investment for costs related to the certification QMS according to ISO 9000. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the field and is one of the first studies to undertake this type of analysis in Portugal.

Project and customer profitability analysis: an empirical case study

The objective of this case study is to provide a Finnish solution provider company an objective, in-depth analysis of their project based business and especially of project estimation accuracy. A project and customer profitability analysis is conducted as a complementary addition to describe profitability of the Case Company’s core division. The theoretical framework is constructed on project profitability and customer profitability analysis. Project profitability is approached starting from managing projects, continuing to project pricing process and concluding to project success. The empirical part of this study describes the Case Company’s project portfolio, and by means of quantitative analysis, the study describes how the characteristics of a project impact the project’s profitability. The findings indicate that it really makes a difference in project portfolio’s estimated and actual profitability when methods of installation and technical specifications are scrutinized. Implications on profitability are gathered into a risk assessment tool proposal.

Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

Profitability analysis of a femtosecond laser system for cataract surgery using a fuzzy logic approach

AIM: To define the financial and management conditions required to introduce a femtosecond laser system for cataract surgery in a clinic using a fuzzy logic approach. METHODS: In the simulation performed in the current study, the costs associated to the acquisition and use of a commercially available femtosecond laser platform for cataract surgery (VICTUS, TECHNOLAS Perfect Vision GmbH, Bausch & Lomb, Munich, Germany) during a period of 5y were considered. A sensitivity analysis was performed considering such costs and the countable amortization of the system during this 5y period. Furthermore, a fuzzy logic analysis was used to obtain an estimation of the money income associated to each femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (G). RESULTS: According to the sensitivity analysis, the femtosecond laser system under evaluation can be profitable if 1400 cataract surgeries are performed per year and if each surgery can be invoiced more than $500. In contrast, the fuzzy logic analysis confirmed that the patient had to pay more per surgery, between $661.8 and $667.4 per surgery, without considering the cost of the intraocular lens (IOL). CONCLUSION: A profitability of femtosecond laser systems for cataract surgery can be obtained after a detailed financial analysis, especially in those centers with large volumes of patients. The cost of the surgery for patients should be adapted to the real flow of patients with the ability of paying a reasonable range of cost.

Scaphoid Fracture Nonunion: Correlation Of Radiographic Imaging, Proximal Fragment Histologic Viability Evaluation, And Estimation Of Viability At Surgery: Diagnosis Of Scaphoid Pseudarthrosis.

The purpose of this study was to correlate the pre-operative imaging, vascularity of the proximal pole, and histology of the proximal pole bone of established scaphoid fracture non-union. This was a prospective non-controlled experimental study. Patients were evaluated pre-operatively for necrosis of the proximal scaphoid fragment by radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Vascular status of the proximal scaphoid was determined intra-operatively, demonstrating the presence or absence of puncate bone bleeding. Samples were harvested from the proximal scaphoid fragment and sent for pathological examination. We determined the association between the imaging and intra-operative examination and histological findings. We evaluated 19 male patients diagnosed with scaphoid nonunion. CT evaluation showed no correlation to scaphoid proximal fragment necrosis. MRI showed marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images that confirmed the histological diagnosis of necrosis in the proximal scaphoid fragment in all patients. Intra-operative assessment showed that 90% of bones had absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding, which was confirmed necrosis by microscopic examination. In scaphoid nonunion MRI images with marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images and the absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding are strong indicatives of osteonecrosis of the proximal fragment.

PENCALC: a program for penetrance estimation in autosomal dominant diseases

We present a computer program developed for estimating penetrance rates in autosomal dominant diseases by means of family kinship and phenotype information contained within the pedigrees. The program also determines the exact 95% credibility interval for the penetrance estimate. Both executable (PenCalc for Windows) and web versions (PenCalcWeb) of the software are available. The web version enables further calculations, such as heterozygosity probabilities and assessment of offspring risks for all individuals in the pedigrees. Both programs can be accessed and down-loaded freely at the home-page address http://www.ib.usp.br/~otto/software.htm.

Load Ratio Estimation Through Striation Height and Spacing Analysis of an Aerospace Al Alloy 7475-T7351

It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

Food profitability affects intranidal recruitment behaviour in the stingless bee Nannotrigona testaceicornis

Does the food's sugar concentration affect recruitment behaviour in the stingless bee Nan-notrigona testaceicornis? We recorded intranidal forager behaviour while offering sugar water of constant, increasing, or decreasing concentrations. Running speed was not correlated with sugar concentration but the jostling contacts/sec were. Food profitability also affected the recruiter's thorax vibrations: Pulse duration and duty cycle followed both concentration increases and decreases. Sugar concentration also influenced the number of recruited bees. In comparison to the phylogenetically closely related Scaptotrigona, Nan-notrigona's intranidal recruitment behaviour showed a more elaborate association with food profitability. This is likely to reflect differences in ecology and foraging strategies as Nannotrigona - in contrast to Scaptotrigona - does not lay scent trails to guide recruits to a food source.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Estimation of the thickness and the optical parameters of several stacked thin films using optimization

The reverse engineering problem addressed in the present research consists of estimating the thicknesses and the optical constants of two thin films deposited on a transparent substrate using only transmittance data through the whole stack. No functional dispersion relation assumptions are made on the complex refractive index. Instead, minimal physical constraints are employed, as in previous works of some of the authors where only one film was considered in the retrieval algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first report on the retrieval of the optical constants and the thickness of multiple film structures using only transmittance data that does not make use of dispersion relations. The same methodology may be used if the available data correspond to normal reflectance. The software used in this work is freely available through the PUMA Project web page (http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/puma/). (C) 2008 Optical Society of America

An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

Non-exhaustive tests for critical power estimation

Objective. - The aim of this study was to propose a new method that allows for the estimation of critical power (CP) from non-exhaustive tests using ratings of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods. - Twenty-two subjects underwent two practice trials for ergometer and Borg 15-point scale familiarization, and adaptation to severe exhaustive exercise. After then, four exercise bouts were performed on different days for the estimation of CP and anaerobic work capacity (AWC) by linear work-time equation, and CP(15), CP(17), AWC(15) and AWC(17) were estimated using the work and time to attainment of RPE15 and RPE17 based on the Borg 15-point scale. Results. - The CP, CP(15) and CP(17) (170-177W) were not significantly different (P>0.05). However, AWC, AWC(15) and AWC(17) were all different from each other. The correlations between CP(15) and CP(17), with CP were strong (R=0.871 and 0.911, respectively), but the AWC(15) and AWC(17) were not significantly correlated with AWC. Conclusion. - Sub-maximal. RPE responses can be used for the estimation of CP from non-exhaustive exercise protocols. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.