Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design

We use experiments to study the efficiency effects for a market as a whole of adding the possibility of forward contracting to a pre-existing spot market. We deal separately with the cases where spot market competition is in quantities and where it is in supply functions. In both cases we compare the effect of adding a contract market with the introduction of an additional competitor, changing the market structure from a triopoly to a quadropoly. We find that, as theory suggests, for both types of competition the introduction of a forward market significantly lowers prices. The combination of supply function competition with a forward market leads to high efficiency levels.

Weekly Self-Scheduling, Forward Contracting, and Offering Strategy for a Producer

Within a weekly market horizon, this paper considers a power producer that sells its energy both in the pool and through weekly forward contracts. The paper provides a methodology that allows the producer to derive the self-scheduling of its production units, to select weekly forward contracts, and to obtain the offering strategy for Monday's pool. The proposed technique is based on stochastic programming and allows the producer to maximize its expected profit while controlling the risk of profit variability. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the characteristics of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Valuuttakurssiriskin hallinta Yhdysvaltoihin listautuneessa sähkövoima- ja automaatioteknologia yrityksessä

Tutkimuksen päätavoite on tutkia ja kehittää Case -yrityksen valuuttakurssiriskin hallintaa. Tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tutkitaan kirjoitetunteorian ja tutkimusten pohjalta valuuttamarkkinoita ja -kursseja sekä valuuttakurssiriskin tunnistamista, suojaamista ja kirjaamis-ta. Eri suojausinstrumentteja ja US GAAP:in mukaista suojauslaskentaa tarkastellaan. Teoriat tarjoavat viitekehyksen Case -yrityksen valuuttahallinnan lähempään tarkasteluun. Pääpaino on empiirisessä, historiallisessa valuuttapositiotutkimuksessa, jonka tarkoituksena on selvittää yrityksessä vallinneiden valuuttasuojausten taso. Empiirinen tutkimus osoittaa joidenkin yksiköiden valuuttapolitiikan mukaisissa suojauskäytännöissä olevan parantamisen varaa. Suuriakin valuuttakurssimuutoksille alttiita avoimia positioita muodostuu johtuen liian vähäisestä tai liiallisesta suojaustoiminnasta (finanssitransaktioista). Joidenkin valuuttojen suojaaminen osoittautuu olevan vaikeampaa kuin toisten. Kirjoitetun teorian ja empiirisen tutkimuksen pohjalta tehdään valuuttariski-analyysi, pohditaan termiinien soveltuvuutta riskinhallinnan välineenä ja annetaan kehitys-ehdotuksia yrityksen nykyiselle valuuttahallinnolle ja johdon päätöksenteon tueksi. Case -yrityksen tulevia haasteita on kattavan valuuttapositio -seurantajärjestelmän kehittäminen.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Hintariskeiltä suojautuminen viljakaupassa - viljatermiinit ja niiden käyttö Suomessa

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää, miten viljatermiinejä käytetään Suomessa hintariskeiltä suojautumisen välineenä. Tutkimus on tehty viljantuottajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimusaineistona on käytetty aiheesta aiemmin tehtyä tutkimuskirjallisuutta ja varta vasten kerättyä haastatteluaineistoa. Tuottajien mielestä hintavaihteluilla oli suuri vaikutus tuotannon tulokseen ja kaikki haastatellut olivat miettineet keinoja hintavaihtelujen vaikutusten pienentämiseksi. Termiinikaupan käyttäminen viljan myynnissä on kuitenkin Suomessa melko harvinainen ilmiö. Aiempien tutkimustulosten perusteella ja kerättyyn haastatteluaineistoon perustuen vaikuttaisi siltä, että termiinikaupan vähäiseen käyttöön Suomessa ovat vaikuttaneet ainakin maataloustukien runsas osuus tilojen liikevaihdosta, tiloilla harjoitettava muu ansiotoiminta, sekä runsaat satovaihtelut. Haastatellut tuottajat pyrkivät suojautumaan hintavaihteluilta lähinnä viljaa varastoiden ja koettamalla valita tuotantoon mahdollisimman kannattavia kasveja, joilla hintavaihtelu oli vähäistä. Termiinejä tarjoavat viljantuottajille useat eri viljanostajat. Käytettäessä termiinejä säännöllisesti ja johdonmukaisesti, on termiinikaupalla tuloja tasaava vaikutus. Sen käyttö ei kuitenkaan takaa parempaa tulosta kuin käteiskauppakaan, vaan hyötynä on nimenomaan ennustettavuuden lisääntyminen ja epävarmuuden väheneminen tulovaihteluiden pienentymisen myötä. Termiinikaupasta aiheutuu tuottajalle myös kuluja ja siihen pitäisikin suhtautua kuten vakuutukseen.

OMXH 25-yhtiöiden valuuttariski ja siltä suojautuminen

Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää OMXH 25-yhtiöiden altistumista valuuttariskille ja kuinka nämä yhtiöt suojautuvat siltä. Tässä tutkimuksessa on lisäksi selvitetty näiden yhtiöiden tärkeimmät ulkomaanvaluutat ja yhtiöiden suojausstrategioita. Valuuttariskin suuruuden selvittämiseksi yhtiöiden vieraan valuuttaista liikevaihtoa verrattiin yhtiön kokonaisliikevaihtoon. Tutkimuksen aineistona on käytetty yhtiöiden vuosien 2013 ja 2014 tilinpäätöksiä. Aineistosta on lisäksi rajattu pois OMXH 25-yhtiöiden joukosta Nordea, Sampo, Elisa ja Telia Sonera. Nämä yhtiöt rajattiin pois, koska ne soveltuivat huonosti tämän tutkimuksen kohteiksi. Tutkimuksen teoriakehys on rakennettu keskeisten teorioiden ja käsitteiden avulla. Valuuttariski voidaan jakaa kolmeen osaan: transaktioriskiin, ekonomiseen riskiin ja translaatioriskiin. Valuuttariskin suojauksessa käytettävät instrumentit ovat termiinit, optiot, swap-sopimukset ja vieraan valuuttainen velka. Myös suojaamatta jättämisen mahdollisuutta on tutkittu. Tutkimuksessa kävi ilmi yhtiöiden merkittävä altistuminen valuuttariskille liikevaihdolla mitattuna. Yhtiöiden liikevaihdosta lähes 50% tapahtui jossain muussa valuutassa kuin euroissa. Yhtiöt käyttävät valuuttariskiltä suojautumiseen pääasiassa termiinejä, mutta myös muita instrumentteja käytetään jonkin verran. Yhtiöt keskittyvät eniten transaktioriskin suojaamiseen ekonomisen riskin ja tranlaatioriskin jäädessä pienemmälle huomiolle. Myös aikaisemmissa tutkimuksissa on saatu samankaltaisia tuloksia. Viime vuosien voimakkaat valuuttakurssimuutokset ovat vaikuttaneet yhtiöiden tuloksiin negatiivisesti ja erityisesti ruplan arvon voimakas heikentyminen suhteessa euroon aiheutti joillekkin yhtiöille merkittäviä valuuttakurssitappioita. Tärkein vieras valuutta tutkituille yhtiöille oli USA:n dollari. Korkeasta suojausasteesta huolimatta suurinosa tutkituista yhtiöistä kärsi valuuttakurssitappiota kumpanakin tarkasteltuna vuonna.

Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

Relevância das diferenças entre contratos futuros e a termo: o caso do trio

Visando estudar as diferenças entre contratos futuros e contratos a termo no mercado cambial brasileiro, este trabalho foca no contrato de Dólar Futuro negociado na BM&FBOVESPA que, para vencimentos sem liquidez, é marcado a mercado pelo preço teórico dos contratos a termo. Uma simulação por Monte Carlo de uma carteira hedgeada contendo contratos de Dólar Futuro, DI Futuro e DDI Futuro mostra claramente que essa metodologia de marcação a mercado deveria ao menos ser revista

Static replications with traffic light options

It is well known that sufficiently regular, one-dimensional payoff functions have an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts, and options in a continuum of strikes. An easy and natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to static hedges based on the same instruments along with traffic light options, which have recently been introduced in the market. It is well known that the second strike derivative of non-discounted prices of vanilla options is related to the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset price in the corresponding absolutely continuous settings. Similar statements hold for traffic light options in sufficiently regular, bivariate settings.

Portfolio optimization in the energy market

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of an energy company. Our fleet of electricity production plants mainly includes gas, hydroelectric and waste-to-energy plants. We also sold contracts for the supply of gas and electricity. For each year we have to plan the trading of the volumes needed by the plants and customers: better to fix the price of these volumes in advance with the so-called forward contracts, instead of waiting for the delivery months, exposing ourselves to price uncertainty. Here’s the thing: trying to keep uncertainty under control in a market that has never shown such extreme scenarios as in recent years: a pandemic, a worsening climate crisis and a war that is affecting economies around the world have made the energy market more volatile than ever. How to make decisions in such uncertain contexts? There is an optimization problem: given a year, we need to choose the optimal planning of volume trading times, to meet the needs of our portfolio at the best prices, taking into account the liquidity constraints given by the market and the risk constraints imposed by the company. Algorithms are needed for the generation of market scenarios over a finite time horizon, that is, a probabilistic distribution that allows a view of all the dates between now and the end of the year of interest. Algorithms are needed to solve the optimization problem: we have proposed more than one and compared them; a very simple one, which avoids considering part of the complexity, moving on to a scenario approach and finally a reinforcement learning approach.

Power Producers Trading Electricity in Both Pool and Forward Markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Power producers trading electricity in both pool and forward markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Pacta sunt servanda versus the social role of contracts: the case of Brazilian agriculture contracts

This study explores the instability created by contradictory court decisions related with contract breaches. Forward marketing contracts represent an important source of resources to finance Brazilian agriculture, however a large number of contract breaches were observed during a period of marked increase in soy prices. The study analyzed 161 judicial appeal decisions and a survey was carried with 70 farmers. The results show the difference of judges' interpretation and the existence of second order effects. The effects of court decisions were more requirements of guarantees and the reduction in the number of contracts. Those soybean farmers who did not breach their contracts have also been negatively affected by the strategic reactions of trading and processing companies. The concept of "social function of the contract" introduced in Brazilian civil code led to a higher degree of instability in contracts, raising transaction costs and motivating private economic sanctions.