Futuros financeiros: uma abordagem aos commodities de algodão

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre José Carlos Pedro

Modelos de apreçamento e cobertura para derivados sobre matérias-primas (Commodities)

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Matemática e as suas aplicações-Ramo Ciências Actuariais

Modelos de previsão de preços de commodities

O principal objectivo deste trabalho assenta em desenvolver modelos de previsão de preços de commodities para assim comparar a capacidade preditiva da simulação de Monte Carlo com a das redes neuronais. A simulação de Monte Carlo é principalmente utilizada para avaliar as opções, já as redes neuronais são utilizadas para fazer previsões, classificações, clustering ou aproximação de funções. Os diversos modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados na previsão do preço futuro do milho, petróleo, ouro e cobre. Sendo que os horizontes temporais testados neste trabalho foram 1 dia, 5 dias, 20 dias e 60 dias. Através da análise do erro absoluto médio percentual (MAPE) concluiu-se que no geral o modelo individual que apresentou um melhor desempenho preditivo foram as redes neuronais. Contudo, nas previsões a 1 e a 5 dias os resultados obtidos foram semelhantes para ambos os modelos. Para se tentar melhorar os resultados obtidos pelos modelos individuais foram aplicadas algumas técnicas de combinação de modelos. A combinação de modelos demonstrou no geral capacidade para melhorar os resultados dos modelos individuais, porém apenas para o horizonte a 60 dias é que os resultados melhoraram significativamente.

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

Combining analytical methodologies for the identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from Brazilian agricultural commodities

The use of chemical analysis of microbial components, including proteins, became an important achievement in the 80’s of the last century to the microbial identification. This led a more objective microbial identification scheme, called chemotaxonomy, and the analytical tools used in the field are mainly 1D/2D gel electrophoresis, spectrophotometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography, and combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The Edman degradation reaction was also applied to peptides sequence giving important insights to the microbial identification. The rapid development of these techniques, in association with knowledge generated by DNA sequencing and phylogeny based on rRNA gene and housekeeping genes sequences, boosted the microbial identification to an unparalleled scale. The recent results of mass spectrometry (MS), like Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionisation Time-of-Flight (MALDI-TOF), for rapid and reliable microbial identification showed considerable promise. In addition, the technique is rapid, reliable and inexpensive in terms of labour and consumables when compared with other biological techniques. At present, MALDI-TOF MS adds an additional step for polyphasic identification which is essential when there is a paucity of characters or high DNA homologies for delimiting very close related species. The full impact of this approach is now being appreciated when more diverse species are studied in detail and successfully identified. However, even with the best polyphasic system, identification of some taxa remains time-consuming and determining what represents a species remains subjective. The possibilities opened with new and even more robust mass spectrometers combined with sound and reliable databases allow not only the microbial identification based on the proteome fingerprinting but also include de novo specific proteins sequencing as additional step. These approaches are pushing the boundaries in the microbial identification field.

Use of a polyphasic approach including MALDI-TOF MS for identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from food commodities in Brazil

Brazil is one the largest producers and exporters of food commodities in the world. The evaluation of fungi capable of spoilage and the production mycotoxins in these commodities is an important issue that can be of help in bioeconomic development. The present work aimed to identify fungi of the genus Aspergillus section Flavi isolated from different food commodities in Brazil. Thirty-five fungal isolates belonging to the section Flavi were identified and characterised. Different classic phenotypic and genotypic methodologies were used, as well as a novel approach based on proteomic profiles produced by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Type or reference strains for each taxonomic group were included in this study. Three isolates that presented discordant identification patterns were further analysed using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and calmodulin gene sequences. The data obtained from the phenotypic and spectral analyses divide the isolates into three groups, corresponding to taxa closely related to Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus parasiticus, and Aspergillus tamarii. Final polyphasic fungal identification was achieved by joining data from molecular analyses, classical morphology, and biochemical and proteomic profiles generated by MALDI-TOF MS.

Non-Cooperative Asymptotic Oligopoly in Economies with Infinitely Many Commodities

In this paper, we extend the non-cooperative analysis of oligopoly to exchange economics with infinitely many commodities by using strategic market games. This setting can be interpreted as a model of oligopoly with differentiated commodities by using the Hotelling line. We prove the existence of an "active" Cournot-Nash equilibrium and show that, when traders are replicated, the price vector and the allocation converge to the Walras equilibrium. We examine how the notion of oligopoly extends to our setting with a countable infinity of commodities by distinguishing between asymptotic oligopolists and asymptotic price-takes. We illustrate these notions via a number of examples.

Indexes of prices received by Iowa farmers for farm commodities.

The Iowa Crop and Livestock Report

Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

A alta recente dos preços das commodities

This article suggests some explanations for the steady rise of the commodities prices since 2002. Firstly, it analyses the long and medium term trends of these prices. Secondly, it explores the determinants of the recent rise, which are the macroeconomic conditions of the international economic, the high growth rate of China, and supply shocks that affect the production of some agriculture commodities.

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

Commodities and their fetishism

Many pr oblems present themselves in at tempting t o discuss Marx's noti on of the fetish characteristics of commodities. It has been argued that it is one of the central points of Marx's en tir e c or pus. 1 It has also been argued that it i s merely "a brilli an t s oci olog i cal genera lization l ! and, even furth er, that it is an Hi ndependent and separate entity, internally hardly related t o Marx's economic theory" .2 How could such a theory be understo od i n such drastically diff erent ways? Perhaps the clue is to be f ound somewhere in Marx' s discussion of the fetishism of commodities itself. Because of the difficulty in un derstanding fetishism , I intend t o examine what Marx himself has t o say first befor e dealing with any points related to the notion of fetishism. Thus , the first parts of this thesis will c onsist of l ong qu otations and repetition of what Marx has t o say. If a noti on may be called ' central' and yet 'hardly related' t o Marx's wor k at the same time, surely a clear examination of this section is necess ary. Aft er an examination of the initial secti ons of Cae ital ] I intend t G examine the f ollowing : the r e lation of fetishism t o the t he ory of alienati on; how one may regard f etishism as a pr oblem f or philosophy; and how, in f act, the theory of fetishism is of prime imp ortance f or an understan ding of Marx's wr itings. What I want to stress throughout is that with o u~ an understanding of what is inherent in the pr oduction of the commodity causing i t t o be necessarily fetishistic, it is practically imp ossible t o understand much of Marx's other writin gs. A commodity appears, at fir st sight, a very trivial thing and easi ly un derst ood. Itsanalysis shows that it i s , in r eality , a very queer thing , abo unding in ~taphysical s ubtleties and theological nic eties .