A semantic modelling approach to knowledge based statistical software

The topic of this thesis is the development of knowledge based statistical software. The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Some of the issues involved in the development of knowledge based software are presented and a review is given of some of the systems that have been developed so far. The majority of these have moved away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed an expert systems approach. The thesis then proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented, the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package. This involved developing a semantic data model to represent some of the statistically relevant knowledge about data and identifying sets of requirements that should be met for the application of the statistical techniques to be valid. Those areas of statistics covered in the prototype are measures of association and tests of location.

Computerized key to the genus Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, analysis of species clusters based on morphology, using information of insect vectors and associated plants, with a revision of the genus.

The genus Bursaphelenchus includes B. xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer, 1934) Nickle, 1981, which is of world economic and quarantine importance. Distinction among several species of the pinewood nematodes species complex (PWNSC) is often difficult. Besides standard morphology, morphometrics and molecular biology, new tools are welcome to better understand this group. The computerized (or e-) key of this genus, presented in this communication, includes 74 species (complete list of valid species of the world fauna) and 35 characters, that were used by the taxonomic experts of this group, in the original descriptions. Morphology of sex organs (male spicules and female vulval region) was digitized and classified to distinguish alternative types. Several qualitative characters with overlapping character states (expressions) were transformed into the morphometric indices with the discontinuous ranges (characters of ratios of the spicule dimensions). Characters and their states (expressions) were illustrated in detail and supplied by brief user-friendly comments. E-key was created in the BIKEY identification system (Dianov & Lobanov, 1996-2004). The system has built-algorithm ranging characters depending on their diagnostic values at each step of identification. Matrix of species and the character states (structural part of the e-key database) may be easily transformed using statistical packages into the dendrograms of general phenetic similarities (UPGMA, standard distance: mean character difference). It may be useful in the detailed analysis of taxonomy and evolution of the genus and in its splitting to the species groups based on morphology. The verification of the dendrogram using the information on the species links with insect vectors and their associated plants, provided an opportunity to recognize the five clusters (xylophilus, hunti, eremus sensu stricto, tusciae and piniperdae sensu stricto), which seem to be the natural species groups. The hypothesis about the origin and the first stages of the genus evolution is proposed. A general review of the genus Bursaphelenchus is presented.

Motivações e satisfação dos turistas de negócios: o caso de Vilamoura

O objetivo da presente dissertação visa analisar o perfil sócio-demográfico dos turistas de negócios no Algarve, perceber as motivações que os levam a conferências e congressos, analisar a sua satisfação com os atributos do evento e com os atributos do destino, bem como analisar a sua satisfação global com ambos. Para esse fim, foram aplicados os questionários aos turistas de negócios em Vilamoura, cujos resultados foram analisados através do software Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) 17,0. Os resultados obtidos permitem fazer uma caracterização do perfil sócio-demográfico do turista de negócios em Vilamoura. Como principais motivações que os levam a congressos/conferências verificaram-se os seguintes: tema do congresso, valorização profissional, estabelecimento de contactos profissionais, oportunidade de convívio e atratividade do destino. Verificou-se também que as motivações podem ser influenciadas por alguns dos aspetos do perfil sócio-demográfico dos indivíduos, tais como: sexo, idade, nacionalidade, estado civil, habilitações literárias e rendimento. Quanto à satisfação, concluiu-se que os congressistas estão mais satisfeitos com os congressos/conferências do que com o destino. A sua satisfação não é influenciada pelo seu perfil sócio-demográfico, mas pelo conjunto de atributos relacionados com o desempenho do congresso/conferência e pelos atributos do destino. Foram feitas várias recomendações de modo a eliminar as falhas existentes, melhorar a gestão dos serviços e satisfazer as expectativas, necessidades e desejos dos turistas de negócios para que estes voltem e informem outros acerca do congresso e do destino Algarve.

New Features of CoDaPack. An Userfriendly Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data is commonly used in geological studies. As is well-known, compositions should be treated using logratios of parts, which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. In this paper we describe the new features of our freeware package, named CoDaPack, which implements most of the basic statistical methods suitable for compositional data. An example using real data is presented to illustrate the use of the package

CODAPACK3D. A new version of Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data should be treated using logratios of parts, which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. For this reason a freeware package, named CoDaPack was created. This software implements most of the basic statistical methods suitable for compositional data. In this paper we describe the new version of the package that now is called CoDaPack3D. It is developed in Visual Basic for applications (associated with Excel©), Visual Basic and Open GL, and it is oriented towards users with a minimum knowledge of computers with the aim at being simple and easy to use. This new version includes new graphical output in 2D and 3D. These outputs could be zoomed and, in 3D, rotated. Also a customization menu is included and outputs could be saved in jpeg format. Also this new version includes an interactive help and all dialog windows have been improved in order to facilitate its use. To use CoDaPack one has to access Excel© and introduce the data in a standard spreadsheet. These should be organized as a matrix where Excel© rows correspond to the observations and columns to the parts. The user executes macros that return numerical or graphical results. There are two kinds of numerical results: new variables and descriptive statistics, and both appear on the same sheet. Graphical output appears in independent windows. In the present version there are 8 menus, with a total of 38 submenus which, after some dialogue, directly call the corresponding macro. The dialogues ask the user to input variables and further parameters needed, as well as where to put these results. The web site http://ima.udg.es/CoDaPack contains this freeware package and only Microsoft Excel© under Microsoft Windows© is required to run the software. Kew words: Compositional data Analysis, Software

El entorno estadístico R : ventajas de su uso en la docencia y la investigación.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods: We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Variance estimation with highly stratified sampling designs with unequal probabilities

It is common practice to design a survey with a large number of strata. However, in this case the usual techniques for variance estimation can be inaccurate. This paper proposes a variance estimator for estimators of totals. The method proposed can be implemented with standard statistical packages without any specific programming, as it involves simple techniques of estimation, such as regression fitting.

Variance estimation with Chao's sampling scheme

We show that the Hájek (Ann. Math Statist. (1964) 1491) variance estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator when the Chao sampling scheme (Chao, Biometrika 69 (1982) 653) is implemented. This estimator is simple and can be implemented with any statistical packages. We consider a numerical and an analytic method to show that this estimator can be used. A series of simulations supports our findings.

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

Fast computation of trimmed means

We present two methods of calculating trimmed means without sorting the data in O(n) time. The existing method implemented in major statistical packages relies on sorting, which takes O(n log n) time. The proposed algorithm is based on the quickselect algorithm for calculating order statistics with O(n) expected running time. It is an order of magnitude faster than the existing method for large data sets.

Estudo de sobrevivência de uma coorte de pessoas de 60 anos e mais no município de Botucatu (SP) - Brasil

O aumento proporcional do número de idosos na população tem motivado estudos no sentido de melhorar a qualidade de vida desta faixa etária através de políticas sociais e, entre elas, o planejamento em saúde. Com o objetivo de conhecer riscos de mortalidade para a população de sessenta anos e mais, um estudo de sobrevida foi realizado rastreando, no ano de 1992, os idosos participantes de um inquérito de morbidade referida realizado na cidade de Botucatu em 1983/84. Foram localizados 89,6% destes idosos. Curvas de sobrevivência foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier e a análise de riscos, utilizando-se a Regressão Múltipla de Cox ajustando-se o modelo agregando as variáveis por blocos. Para o sexo masculino foram encontradas associadas, independentemente, ao aumento da mortalidade as seguintes categorias de variáveis: idade de 70 anos e mais: Hazard Ratio (HR)=2,4 (1,6 - 3,7); salário menor que um salário mínimo: HR=2,2 (1,3 - 3,8); ter outras rendas: HR=2,2 (1,3 - 3,9); ser o chefe da família ou seu cônjuge: HR=2,3 (1,2 - 2,4); referência de doenças do aparelho circulatório: HR=1,6 (1,1 - 2,4); referência de diabetes mellitus: HR=3,0 (1,3 - 7,0). Para o sexo feminino, foram encontradas associadas a idade de 70 anos e mais: HR=4,6 (3,0 - 7,1); referência de diabetes mellitus: HR=3,0 (1,7-5,3) e ter outras rendas: HR=2,0 (1,1 - 4,0).

Fatoriais fixos desbalanceados: Uma análise mal compreendida

Few users of statistical packages are capable of analyzing unbalanced factorials properly, because introductory textbooks do not discuss this topic in detail. The present article is directed to agriculture researchers, with the purpose of clarifying the differences among several widely used programs. It shows how to test useful hypotheses about population means in models having qualitative and quantitative factors. The paper emphasizes the pitfalls of blindly applying packages without prior knowledge of the hypotheses being tested.

Making regression tables from stored estimates

Organizing and archiving statistical results and processing a subset of those results for publication are important and often underestimated issues in conducting statistical analyses. Because automation of these tasks is often poor, processing results produced by statistical packages is quite laborious and vulnerable to error. I will therefore present a new package called estout that facilitates and automates some of these tasks. This new command can be used to produce regression tables for use with spreadsheets, LaTeX, HTML, or word processors. For example, the results for multiple models can be organized in spreadsheets and can thus be archived in an orderly manner. Alternatively, the results can be directly saved as a publication-ready table for inclusion in, for example, a LaTeX document. estout is implemented as a wrapper for estimates table but has many additional features, such as support for mfx. However, despite its flexibility, estout is—I believe—still very straightforward and easy to use. Furthermore, estout can be customized via so-called defaults files. A tool to make available supplementary statistics called estadd is also provided.

Spanish Nursing Students' Practical Experience of Computer Applications in Nursing

This study aimed to determine the level of computer practical experience in a sample of Spanish nursing students. Each student was given a Spanish language questionnaire, modified from an original used previously with medical students at the Medical School of North Carolina University (USA) and also at the Education Unit of Hospital General Universitario del Mar (Spain). The 10-item self-report questionnaire probed for information about practical experience with computers. A total of 126 students made up the sample. The majority were female (80.2%; n=101). The results showed that just over half (57.1%, n=72) of the students had used a computer game (three or more times before), and that only one third (37.3%, n=47) had the experience of using a word processing package. Moreover, other applications and IT-based facilities (e.g. statistical packages, e-mail, databases, CD-ROM searches, programming languages and computer-assisted learning) had never been used by the majority of students. The student nurses' practical experience was less than that reported for medical students in previous studies.