Decreased perinatal sunshine duration is associated with increased non-affective but not affective psychosis birth rates

We have previously found an association between variations in schizophrenia birth rates and varyinglevels of perinatal sunshine duration. This study examines whether such an association can also be found for Ža. affective psychosis, and Žb. broadly defined nonaffective psychoses. Data for individuals born between 1931 and 1970 in Australia with ICD9 Other PsychosisŽ295–299.were obtained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System. ‘Affective psychosis’ included affective psychosis, schizo-affective psychosis, and depressive and excitative non-organic psychoses. ‘Non-affective psychosis’ included chizophrenia, paranoid disorders and other non-organic psychoses. Those receiving both affective and non-affective psychotic diagnoses were excluded. Rates per 10,000 live monthly general population births were calculated. For each month, we assessed the agreementŽusing the kappa statistic. between trends in Ža. birth rates and Žb. long-term trends in seasonally adjusted perinatal sunshine duration. The analyses were performed separately for males and females. There were 6265 with non-affective psychosis ŽMs3964 rate 66r10,000; Fs2299 44r10,000. and 2858 with affective psychosisŽMs1392 24r10,000; Fs1466 28r10,000.. There were no significant associations between Ža. affective psychosis birth rates for either males or females and Žb. sunshine duration. There was a significant association between nonaffective psychosis birth rates for males only and Žb. sunshine duration Žkappas0.15 p-0.001.. This suggests that, as a risk factor, the effect of reduced perinatal sunshine is specifically associated with males who develop non-affective psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration - data from Australia and the Netherlands

Back ground. Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. Methods. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland. Australia n = 6630; The Netherlands n = 24, 474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration, Males and females were assessed separately. Results. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females, Conclusions. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

NDVI and vegetation phenology dynamics under the influence of sunshine duration on the Tibetan plateau

Climate change has significantly influenced vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Past research mainly focused on vegetation responses to temperature variation and water stress, but the influence of sunshine duration on NDVI and vegetation phenology on the TP is not well understood. In this study, NDVI time series from 1982-2008 were used to retrieve spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics on the TP. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was conducted to understand the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI. The Start of Season (SOS) was estimated from NDVI time series with a local threshold method. The first EOF, accounting for 35.1% of NDVI variations on the TP, indicates that NDVI variations are larger in areas with shorter sunshine duration. The needle-leaved forest and shrub in the southeastern TP are more sensitive to sunshine duration anomalies (p < 0.01) than broad-leaved forest, steppe, and meadow due to spatial and altitudinal distribution of sunshine duration and vegetation types. The decrease in sunshine duration for the growing season on the TP has resulted in a decreased NDVI trend in some areas of southeastern TP (p ranging from 0.32-0.05 with threshold ranging from 0.05 to 0.25) in spite of the overall NDVI increase. SOS dynamics in most parts of the TP were mainly related to temperature variability, with precipitation and sunshine duration playing a role in a few regions. This study enhances our understanding of vegetation responses to climatic change on the TP.

Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m-2 d-1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation.

Scorch marks from the sky

Daily sunshine duration is commonly reported at weather stations. Beyond the basic duration report, more information is available from scorched cards of Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders, such as the estimation of direct-beam solar irradiance. Sunshine cards therefore potentially provide information on sky state, as inferred from solar-radiation data. Some sites have been operational since the late 19th century, hence sunshine cards potentially provide underexploited historical data on sky state. Sunshine cards provide an example of an archive source yielding data beyond the measurements originally sought.

Estimativas da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Estimating equations of global radiation based on the sunshine duration were proposed for horizontal surface and with inclination of 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° facing the North in Botucatu, SP, Brazil, in monthly, seasonal and annual groupings of data. Simple linear correlations were applied (for definition of the linear and angular coefficients of Angstrom-Prescott model), in a database measured in all three inclinations in different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The statistical performance of the model was analysed by the means absolute error (MBE), the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) and the index adjustment (d). The minimum global radiation transmissivity varied from 14.35% in August (12.85°) to 27.86% in December (32.85°) and the maximum transmissivity ranged between 62.10% and 78.90%, for June (32.85°) and December (12.85°). Increasing the angle of inclination surface increased the scattering and decreased the index of adjustment and performance. The worst results were found for application of the seasonal and annual models in the months of autumn and winter for 32.85° (RMSE below 42.93% and adjustment superior to 0.4693).

Estimativas das radiações direta e difusa em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Statistical equations were obtained and evaluated with annual, seasonal and monthly data groupings for estimates of direct and diffuse components of solar radiation based on the sunshine duration (ratio of sunshine and photoperiod) incident on horizontal and inclined surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° with facing to North, in Botucatu, SP. The ratios between the two components and radiation at the top of the atmosphere were used, in a database whose inclinations were measured in three different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) and concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The correlations showed a linear and second degree polynomial behavior for the direct and diffuse radiation, with higher coefficients of determination in periods of low variation in the coverage of the sky (cloudiness). The highest values of the direct and diffuse radiation were found in winter and summer, respectively for all surfaces evaluated. The increase in the inclination angle decreased the performance of equations in all groups of data with increase in scattering and decrease in index of the adjustment, however, the monthly equations allowed better performance for the two components.

Estimativa das radiações ultravioleta (UV), fotossintéticamente ativa (PAR) e infravermelha (IV) em função da razão de insolação

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativa da radiação solar global em estufa de polietileno a partir do brilho solar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Die Rolle der Globalstrahlung im Klimasystem Südwestdeutschlands

Die Untersuchungen umfassen die Periode 1981 – 2000 und basieren hauptsächlich auf Daten des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD). Relativwerte der Globalstrahlung beziehen sich auf die Rayleigh-Atmosphäre. Das Regressionsmodell nach Angström ermöglicht die Erweiterung des Meßnetzes. In linearer und nichtlinearer Regression und Korrelation ist die Globalstrahlung entweder abhängige (Sonnenscheindauer, Bewölkung) oder unabhängige Variable (Lufttemperatur, Bodentemperatur). Ihre Intensität in Abhängigkeit von Großwetterlagen, Großwettertypen und Luftmassen wird diskutiert. Diesbezüglich werden mit der Linearen Diskriminanzanalyse ähnliche Großwetterlagen und Stationen in signifikant unterschiedenen Gruppen zusammengefaßt, getrennt nach Sommer- und Winterhalbjahr. Abhängig von der Zeit betrachtet, enthalten Globalstrahlung, direkte und diffuse Sonnenstrahlung, Lufttemperatur, Bewölkung und Niederschlag signifikante zyklische Variationen, die gegebenenfalls klimatologisch relevant sind. Weiteren Aufschluß ergeben deshalb die Zeitreihenanalysen. Autokorrelation-Spektralanalysen (ASA) der genannten Variablen werden in integrierten Spektren dargestellt. Hinweise auf die zeitliche Konstanz signifikanter Varianzmaxima enthalten die Spektren der dynamischen (gleitenden) ASA.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.