Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

Pax Americana: Accent attitudinal evaluations in New Zealand, Australia, and America

This study describes a series of evaluations of gender pairs of New Zealand English, Australian English, American English and RP-type English English voices by over 400 students in New Zealand, Australia and the U.S.A. Voices were chosen to represent the middle range of each accent, and balanced for paralinguistic features. Twenty-two personality and demographic traits were evaluated by Likert-scale questionnaires. Results indicated that the American female voice was rated most favourably on at least some traits by students of all three nationalities, followed by the American male. For most traits, Australian students generally ranked their own accents in third or fourth place, but New Zealanders put the female NZE voice in the mid-low range of all but solidarity-associated traits. All three groups disliked the NZE male. The RP voices did not receive the higher rankings in power/status variables we expected. The New Zealand evaluations downgrade their own accent vis-a`-vis the American and to some extent the RP voices. Overall, the American accent seems well on the way to equalling or even replacing RP as the prestige—or at least preferred—variety, not only in New Zealand but in Australia and some non-English-speaking nations as well. Preliminary analysis of data from Europe suggests this manifestation of linguistic hegemony as ‘Pax Americana’ seems to be prevalent over more than just the Anglophone nations.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

Impactos do projecto solvência II nos sistemas de governance das seguradoras portuguesas

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Estudo para a implementação do método no ramo acidentes de trabalho

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Reação dos mercados de CDS e de cotações bolsistas a anúncios de rating: o caso dos maiores bancos portugueses

A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo avaliar a capacidade que os mercados de Credit Default Swaps (CDS) e acionista apresentam de antecipar alterações nas notações das principais Agências de Rating mundiais. Para esse efeito serão analisadas as cotações diárias dos prémios de CDS e as cotações diárias de ações dos quatro principais bancos portugueses entre 2004 e 2012, bem como os eventos de rating associados a esses bancos. A literatura existente, apresenta, resultados que tendem a evidenciar que os CDS reagem, regra geral, de forma mais rápida a anúncios das Agências de Rating e que esta mesma reação é maior para eventos negativos (downgrade das notações de rating) do que para eventos positivos (upgrade das notações). O presente estudo detecta, para dois daqueles bancos alguma capacidade dos prémios dos CDS anteciparem eventos negativos de rating.

Seguro Obrigatório de Responsabilidade Civil Automóvel

Dissertação de Mestrado em Solicitadoria

Projeto e dimensionamento da tampa de ventilação de um motor elétrico

Nos dias de hoje a indústria tenta tornar-se cada vez mais competitiva baixando os custos de produção e aumentando a eficiência do produto. O presente trabalho visa desenvolver uma tampa de ventilação de um motor elétrico mais competitiva mas que cumpra com o desempenho mecânico e eficiência solicitados. Para tal, começou-se por analisar alguns motores elétricos e as suas aplicações. Seguidamente apresentam-se conceitos sobre aerodinâmica e processos de fabrico que permitem apoiar as opções tomadas ao longo do estudo. Após o fundamento teórico é apresentado todo o processo de desenvolvimento de uma nova peça. Recorrendo a softwares como o solidworks e Ansys, realizou-se uma análise analítica que permitiu validar as alterações propostas na tampa de ventilação. Foram, ainda, realizadas análises experimentais com o intuito de consolidar os resultados obtidos analiticamente e garantir que o componente cumpria os requisitos impostos por organizações internacionais ligadas à indústria do oil and gas. A primeira das análises experimentais realizada testa a capacidade do material resistir ao impacto de componentes de pequenas dimensões. Esta analise permitiu garantir a utilização da tampa de ventilação em todas as áreas sem limites de normalização. A segunda permite analisar experimentalmente as alterações de design assim como testar alguns trabalhos futuros. Esta análise permitiu definir se no novo projeto da tampa desenvolvido deveria comtemplar uma alteração do diâmetro da entrada de ar da tampa de ventilação. Como resultados aparecem as decisões tomadas na presente tese, assim como analisar as metas que foram atingidas e que melhorias se pretende atingir de futuro tentando visar novas metas. Os resultados obtidos permitiram definir uma nova tampa de ventilação com a nova que irá beneficiar a empresa na sua competitividade no mercado mantendo a performance do motor.

A intervenção da seguradora nas acções propostas contra o segurado

The problem to be discussed results from the relationship established between the insurer and insured by the conclusion of an insurance contract, namely an optional liability insurance contract, to cover the risks taken by the insured resulting from the occurrence of a claim, such as those arising from the emergence of the liability and consequent obligation to compensate damages caused to a third party. This thesis concerns thus the debate between those who consider that, in the optional insurance, the third party may require compliance with the provision to both the insured and the insurer (in the case of voluntary joinder, pursuant to Art. 27 CCP, which corresponds Art. 32 of the New Code of Civil Procedure, Law n. 41/2013 of 26 June, which entered into force on 1 September, hereinafter New Code) - insurance contract on behalf of a third party conception - in the same way that the insured defendant can bring the insurer to intervene as co-defendant in the main process, pursuant al. a) of art. 325 of the CCP (corresponding to art. 316 of the New Code - main intervention caused), and those who argue that the insurer may only intervene in the action as an ancillary party, to assist the defendant, lacking interest, therefore, in necessary or volunteer joinder, with the consequence that the insurer cannot be sued as a main party - only ancillary intervention is justifiable (cf. art. 330 CPC, which corresponds to art. 321 of the New Code).