Exogeneity, weak identification and instrument selection in econometrics

La dernière décennie a connu un intérêt croissant pour les problèmes posés par les variables instrumentales faibles dans la littérature économétrique, c’est-à-dire les situations où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter. En effet, il est bien connu que lorsque les instruments sont faibles, les distributions des statistiques de Student, de Wald, du ratio de vraisemblance et du multiplicateur de Lagrange ne sont plus standard et dépendent souvent de paramètres de nuisance. Plusieurs études empiriques portant notamment sur les modèles de rendements à l’éducation [Angrist et Krueger (1991, 1995), Angrist et al. (1999), Bound et al. (1995), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] et d’évaluation des actifs financiers (C-CAPM) [Hansen et Singleton (1982,1983), Stock et Wright (2000)], où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter, ont montré que l’utilisation de ces statistiques conduit souvent à des résultats peu fiables. Un remède à ce problème est l’utilisation de tests robustes à l’identification [Anderson et Rubin (1949), Moreira (2002), Kleibergen (2003), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)]. Cependant, il n’existe aucune littérature économétrique sur la qualité des procédures robustes à l’identification lorsque les instruments disponibles sont endogènes ou à la fois endogènes et faibles. Cela soulève la question de savoir ce qui arrive aux procédures d’inférence robustes à l’identification lorsque certaines variables instrumentales supposées exogènes ne le sont pas effectivement. Plus précisément, qu’arrive-t-il si une variable instrumentale invalide est ajoutée à un ensemble d’instruments valides? Ces procédures se comportent-elles différemment? Et si l’endogénéité des variables instrumentales pose des difficultés majeures à l’inférence statistique, peut-on proposer des procédures de tests qui sélectionnent les instruments lorsqu’ils sont à la fois forts et valides? Est-il possible de proposer les proédures de sélection d’instruments qui demeurent valides même en présence d’identification faible? Cette thèse se focalise sur les modèles structurels (modèles à équations simultanées) et apporte des réponses à ces questions à travers quatre essais. Le premier essai est publié dans Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 (2008) 2649 – 2661. Dans cet essai, nous analysons les effets de l’endogénéité des instruments sur deux statistiques de test robustes à l’identification: la statistique d’Anderson et Rubin (AR, 1949) et la statistique de Kleibergen (K, 2003), avec ou sans instruments faibles. D’abord, lorsque le paramètre qui contrôle l’endogénéité des instruments est fixe (ne dépend pas de la taille de l’échantillon), nous montrons que toutes ces procédures sont en général convergentes contre la présence d’instruments invalides (c’est-à-dire détectent la présence d’instruments invalides) indépendamment de leur qualité (forts ou faibles). Nous décrivons aussi des cas où cette convergence peut ne pas tenir, mais la distribution asymptotique est modifiée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à des distorsions de niveau même pour de grands échantillons. Ceci inclut, en particulier, les cas où l’estimateur des double moindres carrés demeure convergent, mais les tests sont asymptotiquement invalides. Ensuite, lorsque les instruments sont localement exogènes (c’est-à-dire le paramètre d’endogénéité converge vers zéro lorsque la taille de l’échantillon augmente), nous montrons que ces tests convergent vers des distributions chi-carré non centrées, que les instruments soient forts ou faibles. Nous caractérisons aussi les situations où le paramètre de non centralité est nul et la distribution asymptotique des statistiques demeure la même que dans le cas des instruments valides (malgré la présence des instruments invalides). Le deuxième essai étudie l’impact des instruments faibles sur les tests de spécification du type Durbin-Wu-Hausman (DWH) ainsi que le test de Revankar et Hartley (1973). Nous proposons une analyse en petit et grand échantillon de la distribution de ces tests sous l’hypothèse nulle (niveau) et l’alternative (puissance), incluant les cas où l’identification est déficiente ou faible (instruments faibles). Notre analyse en petit échantillon founit plusieurs perspectives ainsi que des extensions des précédentes procédures. En effet, la caractérisation de la distribution de ces statistiques en petit échantillon permet la construction des tests de Monte Carlo exacts pour l’exogénéité même avec les erreurs non Gaussiens. Nous montrons que ces tests sont typiquement robustes aux intruments faibles (le niveau est contrôlé). De plus, nous fournissons une caractérisation de la puissance des tests, qui exhibe clairement les facteurs qui déterminent la puissance. Nous montrons que les tests n’ont pas de puissance lorsque tous les instruments sont faibles [similaire à Guggenberger(2008)]. Cependant, la puissance existe tant qu’au moins un seul instruments est fort. La conclusion de Guggenberger (2008) concerne le cas où tous les instruments sont faibles (un cas d’intérêt mineur en pratique). Notre théorie asymptotique sous les hypothèses affaiblies confirme la théorie en échantillon fini. Par ailleurs, nous présentons une analyse de Monte Carlo indiquant que: (1) l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires est plus efficace que celui des doubles moindres carrés lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogenéité modérée [conclusion similaire à celle de Kiviet and Niemczyk (2007)]; (2) les estimateurs pré-test basés sur les tests d’exogenété ont une excellente performance par rapport aux doubles moindres carrés. Ceci suggère que la méthode des variables instrumentales ne devrait être appliquée que si l’on a la certitude d’avoir des instruments forts. Donc, les conclusions de Guggenberger (2008) sont mitigées et pourraient être trompeuses. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques à travers des expériences de simulation et deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le problème bien connu du rendement à l’éducation. Le troisième essai étend le test d’exogénéité du type Wald proposé par Dufour (1987) aux cas où les erreurs de la régression ont une distribution non-normale. Nous proposons une nouvelle version du précédent test qui est valide même en présence d’erreurs non-Gaussiens. Contrairement aux procédures de test d’exogénéité usuelles (tests de Durbin-Wu-Hausman et de Rvankar- Hartley), le test de Wald permet de résoudre un problème courant dans les travaux empiriques qui consiste à tester l’exogénéité partielle d’un sous ensemble de variables. Nous proposons deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test basés sur le test de Wald qui performent mieux (en terme d’erreur quadratique moyenne) que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les variables instrumentales sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée. Nous montrons également que ce test peut servir de procédure de sélection de variables instrumentales. Nous illustrons les résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: le modèle bien connu d’équation du salaire [Angist et Krueger (1991, 1999)] et les rendements d’échelle [Nerlove (1963)]. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’éducation de la mère expliquerait le décrochage de son fils, que l’output est une variable endogène dans l’estimation du coût de la firme et que le prix du fuel en est un instrument valide pour l’output. Le quatrième essai résout deux problèmes très importants dans la littérature économétrique. D’abord, bien que le test de Wald initial ou étendu permette de construire les régions de confiance et de tester les restrictions linéaires sur les covariances, il suppose que les paramètres du modèle sont identifiés. Lorsque l’identification est faible (instruments faiblement corrélés avec la variable à instrumenter), ce test n’est en général plus valide. Cet essai développe une procédure d’inférence robuste à l’identification (instruments faibles) qui permet de construire des régions de confiance pour la matrices de covariances entre les erreurs de la régression et les variables explicatives (possiblement endogènes). Nous fournissons les expressions analytiques des régions de confiance et caractérisons les conditions nécessaires et suffisantes sous lesquelles ils sont bornés. La procédure proposée demeure valide même pour de petits échantillons et elle est aussi asymptotiquement robuste à l’hétéroscédasticité et l’autocorrélation des erreurs. Ensuite, les résultats sont utilisés pour développer les tests d’exogénéité partielle robustes à l’identification. Les simulations Monte Carlo indiquent que ces tests contrôlent le niveau et ont de la puissance même si les instruments sont faibles. Ceci nous permet de proposer une procédure valide de sélection de variables instrumentales même s’il y a un problème d’identification. La procédure de sélection des instruments est basée sur deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test qui combinent l’estimateur IV usuel et les estimateurs IV partiels. Nos simulations montrent que: (1) tout comme l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires, les estimateurs IV partiels sont plus efficaces que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée; (2) les estimateurs pré-test ont globalement une excellente performance comparés à l’estimateur IV usuel. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le modèle de rendements à l’éducation. Dans la première application, les études antérieures ont conclu que les instruments n’étaient pas trop faibles [Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] alors qu’ils le sont fortement dans la seconde [Bound (1995), Doko et Dufour (2009)]. Conformément à nos résultats théoriques, nous trouvons les régions de confiance non bornées pour la covariance dans le cas où les instruments sont assez faibles.

Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

[construction Of Measurement Instruments In The Area Of Health].

Measurement instruments are an integral part of clinical practice, health evaluation and research. These instruments are only useful and able to present scientifically robust results when they are developed properly and have appropriate psychometric properties. Despite the significant increase of rating scales, the literature suggests that many of them have not been adequately developed and validated. The scope of this study was to conduct a narrative review on the process of developing new measurement instruments and to present some tools which can be used in some stages of the development process. The steps described were: I-The establishment of a conceptual framework, and the definition of the objectives of the instrument and the population involved; II-Development of the items and of the response scales; III-Selection and organization of the items and structuring of the instrument; IV-Content validity, V-Pre-test. This study also included a brief discussion on the evaluation of the psychometric properties due to their importance for the instruments to be accepted and acknowledged in both scientific and clinical environments.

Possibilidades e limites da avaliação da qualidade de vida : análise dos instrumentos WHOQOL e modelos clássicos de qualidade de vida no trabalho = Possibilities and limits of quality of life assessment : analysis of WHOQOL instruments and quality of work life classical models

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Influence of Hero Apical instruments on cleaning ovoid-shaped root canals

The cleaning capacity of Hero 642 nickel-titanium files, complemented by the Hero Apical instruments in flattened roots, was determined by histological analysis, considering the area of action of the instruments on the coronal walls and the presence of remaining debris. Twenty-four single-canal, human mandibular incisors were divided into three groups and prepared as follows: GI, instrumented with Hero 642 NiTi files 30/.06, 25/.06, 20/.06, 25/.06, and 30/.06; GII, instrumented as GI followed by Hero Apical size 30/.06; GIII, instrumented as GI followed by Hero Apical sizes 30/.06 and 30/.08, then returning to 30/.06 with pendulum movements. The apical thirds were prepared for histological processing, analyzed at 40× magnification and the images were examined morphometrically. Statistical analysis showed that GIII presented the best results for removing debris (5.22% ± 4.13), with more contact between the instruments and the root canal walls (19.31% ± 0.15). This differed statistically from GI (14.04% ± 4.96 debris removal, with 42.96% ± 7.11 instrument contact) and GII (12.62% ± 5.76 debris removal, with 35.01% ± 0.15 instrument contact). Root canal preparation with Hero 642, complemented by Hero Apical instruments (30/.06 and 30/.08, then re-instrumented with Hero Apical 30/.06 using pendulum movements), was more efficient for debris removal and allowed more contact of the instruments with the root canal walls. GII presented the worst results.

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.

Personal Reflexive Instruments for Monitoring Engineering Development (PRIMED) Project

This was an early pre-Catalyst collaboration about developing reflexivity in student engineers. It was funded by (then) CUTSD.

Review of diagnostic screening instruments for alcohol and other drug use and other psychiatric disorders

In recent years there has been a growing recognition that many people with drug or alcohol problems are also experiencing a range of other psychiatric and psychological problems. The presence of concurrent psychiatric or psychological problems is likely to impact on the success of treatment services. These problems vary greatly, from undetected major psychiatric illnesses that meet internationally accepted diagnostic criteria such as those outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) of the American Psychiatric Association (1994), to less defined feelings of low mood and anxiety that do not meet diagnostic criteria but nevertheless impact on an individual’s sense of wellbeing and affect their quality of life.

Health-related quality of life in Australian children with asthma: lessons for the cross-cultural use of quality of life instruments

The development of Australian forms of the Childhood Asthma Questionnaires (CAQs) is reported. Focus group methods and psychometric analyses were used to establish the conceptual, semantic and technical equivalence of these forms with the UK versions. Both versions also provide for data collection from non-asthmatic youngsters. The internal consistency was found to be acceptable (Cronbach's alpha 0.52-0.90) and the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores were found to vary with asthma severity (p < 0.05). Comparison with the UK data revealed that the non-asthmatic scores were higher for Australian than British children (p < 0.001) but that the scores for children with asthma did not differ between the two countries. It was only In the Australian sample that the group with asthma reported impaired HRQoL when compared to their healthy peers. These findings were interpreted in the context of cultural expectations of life quality and conclusions are presented regarding the importance of the gap between experience and expectations. The difficulties raised by the developmental and cultural issues inherent in paediatric HRQoL research were discussed. Qual. Life Res. 7:409-419 (C) 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers

Screening for Alzheimer`s Disease Among Illiterate Elderly: Accuracy Analysis for Multiple Instruments

One of the challenges in screening for dementia in developing countries is related to performance differences due to educational and cultural factors. This study evaluated the accuracy of single screening tests as well as combined protocols including the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Verbal Fluency animal category (VF), Clock Drawing test (CDT), and Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire (PFAQ) to discriminate illiterate elderly with and without Alzheimer`s disease (AD) in a clinical sample. Cross-sectional study with 66 illiterate outpatients diagnosed with mild and moderate AD and 40 illiterate normal controls. Diagnosis of AD was based on NINCDS-ADRDA. All patients were submitted to a diagnostic protocol including a clinical interview based on the CAMDEX sections. ROC curves area analyses were carried out to compare sensitivity and specificity for the cognitive tests to differentiate the two groups (each test separately and in two by two combinations). Scores for all cognitive (MMSE, CDT, VF) and functional assessments (PFAQ) were significantly different between the two groups (p < 0.001). The best screening instruments for this sample of illiterate elderly were the MMSE and the PFAQ. The cut-off scores for the MMSE, VF, CDT, and PFAQ were 17.5, 7.5, 2.5, and 11.5, respectively. The most sensitive combination came from the MMSE and PFAQ (94.1%), and the best specificity was observed with the combination of the MMSE and CDT (89%). Illiterate patients can be successfully screened for AD using well-known screening instruments, especially in combined protocols.

Cyclic Fatigue Resistance of Rotary Nickel-Titanium Instruments Submitted to Nitrogen Ion Implantation

Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess cyclic fatigue resistance in rotary nickel-titanium instruments submitted to nitrogen ion implantation by using a custom-made cyclic fatigue testing apparatus. Methods: Thirty K3 files, size #25, taper 0.04, were divided into 3 experimental groups as follows: group A, 12 files exposed to nitrogen ion implantation at a dose of 2.5 x 10(17) ions/cm(2), accelerating voltage of 200 kV, currents of 1 mu A/cm(2), 130 degrees C temperature, and vacuum conditions of 10 x 10(-6) torr for 6 hours; group B, 12 nonimplanted files; and group C, 6 files submitted to thermal annealing for 6 hours at 130 degrees C. One extra file was used for process control. All files were submitted to a cyclic fatigue test that was performed with an apparatus that allowed the instruments to rotate freely, simulating rotary instrumentation of a curved canal (40-degree, 5-mm radius curve). An electric motor handpiece was used with a contra-angle of 16:1 at an operating speed of 300 rpm and a torque of 2 N-cm. Time to failure was recorded with a stopwatch in seconds and subsequently converted to number of cycles to fracture. Data were analyzed with the Student t test (P < .05). Results: Ion-implanted instruments reached significantly higher cycle numbers before fracture (mean, 510 cycles) when compared with annealed (mean, 428 cycles) and nonimplanted files (mean, 381 cycles). Conclusions: Our results showed that nitrogen ion implantation improves cyclic fatigue resistance in rotary nickel-titanium instruments. Industrial implementation. of this surface modification technique would produce rotary nickel-titanium instruments with a longer working life. (J Endod 2010;36:1183-1186)

Analysis of Apical Root Transportation Associated with Protaper Universal F3 and F4 Instruments by Using Digital Subtraction Radiography

Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess the occurrence of apical root transportation after the use of Pro Taper Universal rotary files sizes 3 (F3) and 4 (F4). Methods: Instruments were worked to the apex of the original canal, always by the same operator. Digital subtraction radiography images were produced in buccolingual and mesiodistal projections. A total of 25 radiographs were taken from root canals of human maxillary first molars with curvatures varying from 23-31 degrees. Quantitative data were analyzed by intraclass correlation coefficient and Wilcoxon nonparametric test (P = .05). Results: Buccolingual images revealed a significantly higher degree of apical transportation associated with F4 instruments when compared with F3 instruments in relation to the original canal (Wilcoxon test, P = .007). No significant difference was observed in mesiodistal images (P = .492). Conclusions: F3 instruments should be used with care in curved canals, and F4 instruments should be avoided in apical third preparation of curved canals. (J Endod 2010;36:1052-1055)

Bacterial Adhesion on Smooth and Rough Titanium Surfaces After Treatment With Different Instruments

Background: Newly formed biofilm after implant debridement may challenge the long-term stability of peri-implant therapy. This in vitro study aimed to assess the roughness and adherence of Streptococcus sanguinis after treatment of smooth and rough titanium surfaces with an erbium-doped: yttrium, aluminum, and garnet (Er:YAG) laser, metal and plastic curets, and an air-powder abrasive system. Methods: Forty titanium disks with smooth-machined surfaces and 40 with sand-blasted and acid-etched surfaces were divided into the following treatment groups: Er:YAG laser; plastic curet; metal curet, and air-powder abrasive system. The surface roughness (roughness average [Raj) before and after treatments was determined using a profilometer. S. sanguinis (American Type Culture Collection 10556) was grown on treated and untreated specimens, and the amounts of retained bacteria on the surfaces were measured by the culture method. Rough and smooth surfaces with and without a suspension of S. sanguinis were also analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results: For smooth surfaces, the roughest surfaces were produced by metal curets (repeated - measures analysis of variance [ANOVA] and Tukey test; P<0.05). The rough-surface profile was not altered by any of the treatments (repeated-measures ANOVA; P>0.05). Rough surfaces treated with metal curets and air-powder abrasion showed the lowest level of bacteria] adhesion (two-way ANOVA and Tukey test; P<0.05). SEM analysis revealed distinct surface profiles produced by all devices. Conclusions: Metal curets are not recommended for smooth titanium surface debridement due to severe texture alteration. Rough surfaces treated with a metal curet and the air-powder abrasive system were less susceptible to bacterial adhesion, probably due to texture modification and the presence of abrasive deposits. J Periodontol 2009;80: 1824-1832.