A Learning Algorithm and System Approach to Address Exceptional Events in Domestic Consumption Management

The integration of the Smart Grid concept into the electric grid brings to the need for an active participation of small and medium players. This active participation can be achieved using decentralized decisions, in which the end consumer can manage loads regarding the Smart Grid needs. The management of loads must handle the users’ preferences, wills and needs. However, the users’ preferences, wills and needs can suffer changes when faced with exceptional events. This paper proposes the integration of exceptional events into the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system developed by the authors, to handle machine learning issues in the domestic consumption context. An illustrative application and learning case study is provided in this paper.

An Investigation of Ozone Related Data and Development of a Model to Evaluate Ozone Episodes for Exceptional Event Criteria

The EPA promulgated the Exceptional Events Rule codifying guidance regarding exclusion of monitoring data from compliance decisions due to uncontrollable natural or exceptional events. This capstone examines documentation systems utilized by agencies requesting data be excluded from compliance decisions due to exceptional events. A screening tool is developed to determine whether an event would meet exceptional event criteria. New data sources are available to enhance analysis but evaluation shows many are unusable in their current form. The EPA and States must collaborate to develop consistent evaluation methodologies documenting exceptional events to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the new rule. To utilize newer sophisticated data, consistent, user-friendly translation systems must be developed.

Emergencies and arbitrary coercion

Cette thèse jette un œil sceptique sur plusieurs théories courantes de l’état d’urgence. La plupart de ces théories de l’état d’urgence présupposent que la notion d'une « urgence » est claire, conceptuellement et pratiquement. J'argue que ceci n'est pas le cas et que cette certitude mal placée produit des problèmes pratiques et conceptuels avec ses théories. De plus, cette thèse démontre que cette certitude mal placée dans la clarté du concept de l'urgence mène les autorités gouvernementales à agir arbitrairement plutôt que selon des principes libéraux et démocratiques pendant des états d’urgence. Contre cette certitude mal placée et contre plusieurs théories contemporaines influentes des états d'urgence, j'offre une théorie rigoureuse et analytique du concept de l’« urgence. » Une fois que le concept de l'urgence est défini, et que cette conception est défendue, la thèse démontre les diverses manières dont les malentendus du concept, mènent aux utilisations arbitraires (de la puissance monopole de l'état) en situation d’urgence. En considérant les états d’urgences, comme événements rares, la thèse évite la tentation de les considérer comme événements exceptionnels capable de fragmenter l'ordre politique établi (comme d’autres théories le font). La thèse argue que les mesures prises par le gouvernent pendant l’état d’urgence devraient être compatibles plus généralement avec les valeurs démocratiques et libérales. En rejetant l'idée que les états d'urgence sont des événements exceptionnels, la thèse crée un espace conceptuel dans lequel des propositions plus constructives concernant la gestion des états d'urgence peuvent être entendues. De plus, en analysant les diverses manières dont les autorités gouvernementales utilisent leur forces de façon arbitraire pendant les états d’urgence, la thèse argue clairement pour la supervision institutionnelle accrue en ce qui concerne les procédures d’urgence et leur déploiement pendant des états d'urgence. En conclusion, la thèse argue que les démocraties libérales n'ont pas besoin de craindre les états d’urgences tandis que les démocraties libérales ont déjà les ressources requise pour administrer les états d’urgence. Contrairement à ce que d’autres théories l’état d'urgence recommandent, les démocraties libérales ont déjà les ressources institutionnelles et conceptuelles pour administrer les états d’urgences.

O tempo e o direito na sociedade de informação : o limite temporal para a manutenção de informações pessoais como corolário de um direito da personalidade

O tempo sempre desempenhou relevante função de estabilização das relações jurídicas e decantação da memória individual, fazendo com que a divulgação de fatos desagradáveis ou sacrificantes aos direitos da personalidade tivessem, salvo em eventos excepcionais de ordem histórica, por força de um processo natural de erosão da sua relevância e atualidade, como destino o esquecimento. Esse mecanismo natural, capaz de assegurar o exercício de novas escolhas e o livre desenvolvimento da personalidade, restou substancialmente mitigado pelo surgimento da sociedade de informação, com a expansão dos veículos de comunicação de massa e a rede mundial de computadores, com sua memória infalível, a permitir a divulgação e o amplo acesso, com idêntica facilidade, a informações atuais e do passado. Releva, portanto, discutir a existência de um direito ao esquecimento, como forma de estabelecer, salvo em situações de inequívoco interesse público, uma limitação temporal para a manutenção e para a divulgação de fatos passados e referências pessoais, fora de um contexto de atualidade, capazes de macular a honra, o bom nome, a privacidade e a integridade psicológica das pessoas, bem como a possibilidade de que a ofensa injustificada a um direito da personalidade protegido pelo esquecimento, praticada com abuso do direito de informar, seja considerada ilícita.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Extreme events and the morphodynamics of gravel-dominated coastal barriers: Strengthening uncertain ground

The long-term morphodynamic ordering of gravel-dominated coastal systems (GDCS), many of which serve as coastal defences in northwest Europe, is dominated by extreme events that generate barrier crest overflow. An understanding of this morphodynamic ordering is fraught with several unresolved difficulties. These are related to the twin problems of the inadequacy of pertinent morphodynamic parameterisation and of obtaining data from modern shores enabling such parameterisation. Major uncertainties concern the timing of over-crest flow in terms of return period of extreme elevation; the intensity and structure of the overflow field; antecedent beachface characteristics in response to storms; the rate of relative sea-level change; tidal stage control; and barrier resistance to forcing, itself determined by a number of unknowns including barrier form and size, sediment size and mosaics, and barrier resilience. While generalised extreme value modelling may provide a means of characterising overwashing return-period and its variability, exceptional tsunami events are outside the scope of such modelling. The characterisation of GDCS morphodynamics in terms of the forcing extreme events will necessitate integrating some or all of these parameters into a single model.

Holocene tsunami events in the Eastern Ionian Sea - Geoscientific evidence from Cefalonia and the western Peloponnese (Greece)

This study presents geo-scientific evidence for Holocene tsunami impact along the shores of the Eastern Ionian Sea. Cefalonia Island, the Gulf of Kyparissia and the Gialova Lagoon were subject of detailed geo-scientific investigations. It is well known that the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean were hit by the destructive influence of tsunamis in the past. The seismically highly active Hellenic Trench is considered as the most significant tsunami source in the Eastern Ionian Sea. This study focuses on the reconstruction and detection of sedimentary signatures of palaeotsunami events and their influence on the Holocene palaeogeographical evolution. The results of fine grained near coast geo-archives are discussed and interpreted in detail to differentiate between tsunami, storm and sea level highstands as sedimentation processes.rnA multi-method approach was applied using geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, geophysical and microfaunal analyses to detect Holocene tsunamigenic impact. Chronological data were based on radiocarbondatings and archaeological age estimations to reconstruct local geo-chronostratigraphies and to correlate them on supra-regional scales.rnDistinct sedimentary signatures of 5 generations of tsunami impact were found along the coasts of Cefalonia in the Livadi coastal plain. The results show that the overall coastal evolution was influenced by tsunamigenic impact that occured around 5700 cal BC (I), 4250 cal BC (II), at the beginning of the 2nd millennium cal BC (III), in the 1st millennium cal BC (IV) and posterior to 780 cal AD (V). Sea level reconstructions and the palaeogeographical evolution show that the local Holocene sea level has never been higher than at present.rnAt the former Mouria Lagoon along the Gulf of Kyparissia almost four allochtonous layers of tsunamigenic origin were identified. The stratigraphical record and palaeogeographical reconstructions show that major environmental coastal changes were linked to these extreme events. At the southern end of the Agoulenitsa Lagoon at modern Kato Samikon high-energy traces were found more than 2 km inland and upt ot 9 m above present sea level. The geo-chronological framework deciphered tsunami landfall for the 5th millennium cal BC (I), mid to late 2nd mill. BC (II), Roman times (1st cent. BC to early 4th cent. AD) (III) and most possible one of the historically well-known 365 AD or 521/551 AD tsunamis (IV).rnCoarse-grained allochthonous sediments of marine origin were found intersecting muddy deposits of the quisecent sediments of the Gialova Lagoon on the southwestern Peloponnese. Radiocarbondatings suggest 6 generations of major tsunami impact. Tsunami generations were dated to around 3300 cal BC (I), around the end of 4th and the beginning of 3rd millennium BC (II), after around 1100 cal BC (III), after the 4th to 2nd cent. BC (IV), between the 8th and early 15th cent. AD (V) and between the mid 14th to beginning of 15th cent. AD (VI). Palaeogeographical and morphological characteristics in the environs of the Gialova Lagoon were controlled by high-energy influence.rnSedimentary findings in all study areas are in good accordance to traces of tsunami events found all over the Ionian Sea. The correlation of geo-chronological data fits very well to coastal Akarnania, the western Peloponnese and finding along the coasts of southern Italy and the Aegean. Supra-regional influence of tsunamigenic impact significant for the investigated sites. The palaeogeographical evolution and palaeo-geomorphological setting of the each study area was strongly affected by tsunamigenic impact.rnThe selected geo-archives represent extraordinary sediment traps for the reconstruction of Holocene coastal evolution. Our result therefore give new insight to the exceptional high tsunami risk in the eastern Mediterranean and emphasize the underestimation of the overall tsunami hazard.

An investigation of nucleation events in a coastal urban environment in the southern hemisphere

The occurrence of and conditions favourable to nucleation were investigated at an industrial and commercial coastal location in Brisbane, Australia during five different campaigns covering a total period of 13 months. To identify potential nucleation events, the difference in number concentration in the size range 14-30 nm (N14-30) between consecutive observations was calculated using first-order differencing. The data showed that nucleation events were a rare occurrence, and that in the absence of nucleation the particle number was dominated by particles in the range 30-300 nm. In many instances, total particle concentration declined during nucleation. There was no clear pattern in change in NO and NO2 concentrations during the events. SO2 concentration, in the majority of cases, declined during nucleation but there were exceptions. Most events took place in summer, followed by winter and then spring, and no events were observed for the autumn campaigns. The events were associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. Roadside emissions, in contrast, did not contribute to nucleation, probably due to the predominance of particles in the range 50-100 nm associated with these emissions.

Public sector evaluation of festivals and special events

This research project set out to explore Unitary Authority (UA) involvement in festivals and special events across Wales. It considers the level and nature of UA involvement and investigates activity by event purpose; reasons for, and characteristics of, UA engagement; and, crucially, the extent and nature of event evaluation. The study’s aim was to begin the development of a baseline of information for further research into the growing use of festivals and special events as a strategy for local economic development in Wales. A quantitative survey approach facilitated a comprehensive snapshot of UA responses whilst also incorporating discursive elements. A telephone survey was designed and undertaken with representatives of all 22 UA departments responsible for festivals and events in Wales. The research reveals a significant level of festival and special event activity across Wales, supported primarily for its perceived socio-cultural value. However, evaluation would appear to be focused on improving processes and measuring economic outputs rather than assessing whether socio-cultural objectives are being achieved. Whilst overwhelmingly positive about efforts to improve approaches to evaluation, respondents held clear views about the complications most likely to hamper any such efforts. These responses focused upon the need for flexibility, cost effectiveness and comparability across festival and special event typologies.

Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios

The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a heterogeneous environment. The event abstraction model comprises a hierarchy of events derived from different log sources such as system audit data, application logs, captured network traffic, and intrusion detection system alerts. Unlike existing event abstraction models where low-level information may be discarded during the abstraction process, the event abstraction model presented in this work preserves all low-level information as well as providing high-level information in the form of abstract events. The event abstraction model presented in this work was designed independently of any particular IDS and thus may be used by any IDS, intrusion forensic tools, or monitoring tools. The second part of the research investigates the use of unification for multi-step attack scenario specification and detection. Multi-step attack scenarios are hard to specify and detect as they often involve the correlation of events from multiple sources which may be affected by time uncertainty. The unification algorithm provides a simple and straightforward scenario matching mechanism by using variable instantiation where variables represent events as defined in the event abstraction model. The third part of the research looks into the solution to address time uncertainty. Clock synchronisation is crucial for detecting multi-step attack scenarios which involve logs from multiple hosts. Issues involving time uncertainty have been largely neglected by intrusion detection research. The system presented in this research introduces two techniques for addressing time uncertainty issues: clock skew compensation and clock drift modelling using linear regression. An off-line IDS prototype for detecting multi-step attacks has been implemented. The prototype comprises two modules: implementation of the abstract event system architecture (AESA) and of the scenario detection module. The scenario detection module implements our signature language developed based on the Python programming language syntax and the unification-based scenario detection engine. The prototype has been evaluated using a publicly available dataset of real attack traffic and event logs and a synthetic dataset. The distinct features of the public dataset are the fact that it contains multi-step attacks which involve multiple hosts with clock skew and clock drift. These features allow us to demonstrate the application and the advantages of the contributions of this research. All instances of multi-step attacks in the dataset have been correctly identified even though there exists a significant clock skew and drift in the dataset. Future work identified by this research would be to develop a refined unification algorithm suitable for processing streams of events to enable an on-line detection. In terms of time uncertainty, identified future work would be to develop mechanisms which allows automatic clock skew and clock drift identification and correction. The immediate application of the research presented in this thesis is the framework of an off-line IDS which processes events from heterogeneous sources using abstraction and which can detect multi-step attack scenarios which may involve time uncertainty.