Estimativa de provisões de IBNR utilizando espaço de estados e filtro de Kalman : um caso brasileiro

Esta dissertação pretende discutir a provisão de sinistros do tipo IBNR, bem como qual a melhor forma de estimar estas provisões. Para tanto, serão utilizados dados reais de uma grande seguradora Brasileira para um produto de seguro de um ramo Não Vida. Serão utilizados no cálculo o clássico método Chain Ladder e em contrapartida um modelo de Espaço de Estados e Filtro de Kalman, discutindo as flexibilidades, vantagens e desvantagens de se utilizar tal metodologia.

Modelos em provisão de sinistros

Part of the work of an insurance company is to keep claims reserves, which is known as the technical reserves, in order to mitigate the risk inherent in their activities and comply with the legal obligations. There are several methods for estimate the claims reserves, deterministics and stochastics methods. One of the most used method is the deterministic method Chain Ladder, of simple application. However, the deterministics methods produce only point estimates, for which the stochastics methods have become increasingly popular because they are capable of producing interval estimates, measuring the variability inherent in the technical reserves. In this study the deterministics methods (Grossing Up, Link Ratio and Chain Ladder) and stochastics (Thomas Mack and Bootstrap associated with Overdispersed Poisson model) will be applied to estimate the claims reserves derived from automobile material damage occurred until December 2012. The data used in this research is based on a real database provided by AXA Portugal. The comparison of results obtained by different methods is hereby presented.

Orbital currents and charge density waves in a generalized Hubbard ladder

We study a generalized Hubbard model on the two-leg ladder at zero temperature, focusing on a parameter region with staggered flux (SF)/d-density wave (DDW) order. To guide our numerical calculations, we first investigate the location of a SF/DDW phase in the phase diagram of the half-filled weakly interacting ladder using a perturbative renormalization group (RG) and bosonization approach. For hole doping 6 away from half-filling, finite-system density-matrix renormalizationgroup (DMRG) calculations are used to study ladders with up to 200 rungs for intermediate-strength interactions. In the doped SF/DDW phase, the staggered rung current and the rung electron density both show periodic spatial oscillations, with characteristic wavelengths 2/delta and 1/delta, respectively, corresponding to ordering wavevectors 2k(F) and 4k(F) for the currents and densities, where 2k(F) = pi(1 - delta). The density minima are located at the anti-phase domain walls of the staggered current. For sufficiently large dopings, SF/DDW order is suppressed. The rung density modulation also exists in neighboring phases where currents decay exponentially. We show that most of the DMRG results can be qualitatively understood from weak-coupling RG/bosonization arguments. However, while these arguments seem to suggest a crossover from non-decaying correlations to power-law decay at a length scale of order 1/delta, the DMRG results are consistent with a true long-range order scenario for the currents and densities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing The Ladder To Professionalism

Developing The Ladder To Professionalism by Tom Baum, Manager, Curricula Development Unit and Patricia Reid, Training Advisor, Curricula Development Unit at the Council for Education, Recruitment and Training, State Agency for Hotels, Catering and Tourism in Dublin, Ireland: “Developments are currently in hand to promote increased professionalism in management within the hotel and catering industry in Ireland. The authors discuss the particular responsibility of educational agencies. Recent initiatives to provide a comprehensive and flexible career ladder encompassing craft training, in-service and “second-chance” education, as well as more conventional college-based initial management are reviewed, as are attempts by various industry associations to enhance the professionalism of members.” In this discussion, the authors have primarily devoted their attention to degree gaps in professionalism in the hospitality industry, and the measures that can be taken to mitigate these circumstances. “The hotel, catering, and tourism industry, in common with others involved in the service function, has been relatively slow to adopt modern approaches to management and technology at all levels,” Baum and Reid want you to know. The authors hail from Ireland and point to steps that the industry, in Ireland, is taking to address service problems. “Developments are taking place in Ireland toward professionalism in management in the context of the Irish hotel and catering industry; education and educationally related institutions have taken a role in contributing to the professionalization of work in this area,” say the authors. Baum and Reid point to CERT’s - The State Training Agency for Hotels, Catering and Tourism - involvement in promoting professionalism in the Irish hospitality industry, and provide a comprehensive graph to illustrate CERT’s paths to successful management. Worthy of note is, proprietor management is more common on that side of the Atlantic’, with most properties tending to be smaller than U.S. chain operations. That fact, by no means suggests that management style is indeed complete in the U.K, but it can be said that maybe such style is more congenial. “However, finding the balance between operationalism and the management and development functions seems to underpin perhaps the cardinal problems of professionalism in hotel and catering management in Ireland,” say the authors. “The dichotomy, clearly represented in the management of the industry, is equally evident within the educational and training system and also in the limited influence of associations…” Baum and Reid expand on that issue. The authors do concede that it is difficult to quantify what exactly constitutes good professionalism in the hospitality industry; it is, after all, a fairly subjective concept. They continue by describing some of the degree and sub-degree programs being offered in Ireland.

Weak coupling of acoustic-like phonons and magnon dynamics in incommensurate spin ladder compound Sr14Cu24O41

Intriguing lattice dynamics has been predicted for aperiodic crystals that contain incommensurate substructures. Here we report inelastic neutron scattering measurements of phonon and magnon dispersions in Sr14Cu24O41, which contains incommensurate one-dimensional (1D) chain and two-dimensional (2D) ladder substructures. Two distinct acoustic phonon-like modes, corresponding to the sliding motion of one sublattice against the other, are observed for atomic motions polarized along the incommensurate axis. In the long wavelength limit, it is found that the sliding mode shows a remarkably small energy gap of 1.7-1.9 meV, indicating very weak interactions between the two incommensurate sublattices. The measurements also reveal a gapped and steep linear magnon dispersion of the ladder sublattice. The high group velocity of this magnon branch and weak coupling with acoustic phonons can explain the large magnon thermal conductivity in Sr14Cu24O41 crystals. In addition, the magnon specific heat is determined from the measured total specific heat and phonon density of states, and exhibits a Schottky anomaly due to gapped magnon modes of the spin chains. These findings offer new insights into the phonon and magnon dynamics and thermal transport properties of incommensurate magnetic crystals that contain low-dimensional substructures.

Collaboration and Engagement Throughout The Supply Chain : The Role of Government

Collaboration is acknowledged as a key to continued growth in the Australian construction industry. Government, as a major industry client, has an important role to play with respect to fostering collaboration and ensuring the global competitiveness of the industry. The paper draws upon data collected for the Construction 2020 study and aims to demonstrate that government can a) help to break down the adversarial situation that currently exists between clients, project managers and subcontractors; and b) allow the supply chain to collaborate more effectively in terms of satisfying the relational and financial needs of all parties. Government can also provide a clear set of guidelines (backed up by a functional dispute resolution system) that will promote confidence with respect to forging relationships. Thus, the paper will discuss the way in which public policy can be more closely aligned with actual industry needs in order to promote greater collaboration.

The role of relational capabilities in developing the capacity for supply chain innovation

The purpose of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the types of relational capabilities supply chain participants develop to enable ongoing supply chain innovation capacity building that produces improved business outcomes. This is exploratory research using qualitative data gathered by using five interviews, with the Australian road freight industry as the context. Two key relational capabilities and the improvement of four key business outcomes were identified as being present in the interaction of freight transport service providers with members of their supply chain. The data also demonstrates that by entering into competence building relationships with customers and suppliers firms can build capabilities that will increase their capacity for supply chain innovation. Even in short term arm’s length relationships firms can acquire improved skills behaviours and practices that enhance their operation effectiveness and the efficiency of the supply chain relationships.

Construction supply chain development interim report

The supply chain in the construction industry is less well developed than in manufacturing. This project proposes to bring world class international business profile benchmarking to assist in the development of small and medium sized (SME) subcontractors. This approach has been widely used in Europe and has enabled significant sectoral supply chain development. The construction SME supply chain is a critical component in the delivery of all construction projects. Furthermore, it undermines the sustainability of the individual enterprise and puts construction projects and jobs at risk. Government procurement agencies view this as construction industry capacity building. In the developed and developing worlds, SME sector firms routinely make up over 95% of companies. The construction industry supply chain is dominated by such firms. Supply chain development and capacity building have been largely neglected in the construction sector, despite rhetoric about the importance of the SME sector to the economy This project seeks to investigate the potential to apply the International Business Profile Benchmarking instrument with the construction industry. The project recognises that there are many facets to the quest for continuous improvement in the construction industry and in wider workplace in general. This first interim report reviews the international literature relating to construction industry performance measurement and performance improvement. A summary of the findings follow. ‘Best value’ is dealt with in a separate interim report.

Construction supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change : moving beyond the rhetoric

Construction sector policy makers have the opportunity to create improvements and develop economic, social and environmental sustainability through supply chain economics. The idea of the supply chain concept to improve firm behaviour and industry performance is not new. However there has been limited application and little or no measurement to monitor successful implementation. Often purchasing policies have been developed with sound strategic procurement principles but even these have had limited penetration in to the processes and practices of infrastructure agencies. The research reported in this paper documents an action research study currently being undertaken in the Australian construction sector which aims to explore supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change by two government agencies. The theory which informs this study is the emerging area of construction supply chain economics. There are five stages to the project including; demand analysis, chain analysis, government agency organizational audit, supplier strategy and strategic alignment. The overall objective is towards the development of a Supplier Group Strategy Map for two public sector agencies. Two construction subsectors are examined in detail; construction and demolition waste and precast concrete. Both of these subsectors are critical to the economic and environmental sustainability performance of the construction sector and the community as a whole in the particular jurisdictions. The local and state government agencies who are at the core of the case studies rely individually on the performance of these sectors. The study is set within the context of a sound state purchasing policy that has however, had limited application by the two agencies. Partial results of the study are presented and early findings indicate that the standard risk versus expenditure procurement model does not capture the complexities of project, owner and government risk considerations. A new model is proposed in this paper, which incorporates the added dimension of time. The research results have numerous stakeholders; they will hold particular value for those interested in regional construction sector economics, government agencies who develop and implement policy and who have a large construction purchasing imprint and the players involved in the two subsectors. Even though this is a study in Australia it has widespread applicability as previous research indicates that procurement reform is of international significance and policy implementation is problematic.

Supply chain sustainability: a relationship management approach

Purpose: In this research we examined, by means of case studies, the mechanisms by which relationships can be managed and by which communication and cooperation can be enhanced in sustainable supply chains. The research was predicated on the contention that the development of a sustainable supply chain depends, in part, on the transfer of knowledge and capabilities from the larger players in the supply chain. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research adopted a triangulated approach in which quantitative data were collected by questionnaire, interviews were conducted to explore and enrich the quantitative data and case studies were undertaken in order to illustrate and validate the findings. Handy‟s (1985) view of organisational culture, Allen & Meyer‟s (1990) concepts of organisational commitment and Van de Ven & Ferry‟s (1980) measures of organisational structuring have been combined into a model to test and explain how collaborative mechanisms can affect supply chain sustainability. Findings: It has been shown that the degree of match and mismatch between organisational culture and structure has an impact on staff‟s commitment level. A sustainable supply chain depends on convergence – that is the match between organisational structuring, organisation culture and organisation commitment. Research Limitations/implications: The study is a proof of concept and three case studies have been used to illustrate the nature of the model developed. Further testing and refinement of the model in practice should be the next step in this research. Practical implications: The concept of relationship management needs to filter down to all levels in the supply chain if participants are to retain commitment and buy-in to the relationship. A sustainable supply chain requires proactive relationship management and the development of an appropriate organisational culture, and trust. By legitimising individuals‟ expectations of the type of culture which is appropriate to their company and empowering employees to address mismatches that may occur a situation can be created whereby the collaborating organisations develop their competences symbiotically and so facilitate a sustainable supply chain. Originality/value: The culture/commitment/structure model developed from three separate strands of management thought has proved to be a powerful tool for analysing collaboration in supply chains and explaining how and why some supply chains are sustainable, and others are not.