Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests

Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe.

Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park

The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr− 1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m− 2 yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m− 2 yr− 1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.

Biogeochemical Effects of Simulated Sea Level Rise on Carbon Loss in an Everglades Mangrove Peat Soil

Saltwater intrusion and inundation can affect soil microbial activity, which regulates the carbon (C) balance in mangroves and helps to determine if these coastal forests can keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). This study evaluated the effects of increased salinity (+15 ppt), increased inundation (−8 cm), and their combination, on soil organic C loss from a mangrove peat soil (Everglades, Florida, USA) under simulated tides. Soil respiration (CO2 flux), methane (CH4) flux, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production, and porewater nutrient concentrations were quantified. Soil respiration was the major pathway of soil organic C loss (94–98%) and was approximately 90% higher in the control water level than the inundated treatment under elevated salinity. Respiration rate increased with water temperature, but depended upon salinity and tidal range. CH4 flux was minimal, while porewater DOC increased with a concomitant, significant decline in soil bulk density under increased inundation. Porewater ammonium increased (73%) with inundation and soluble reactive phosphorus increased (32%) with salinity. Overall, the decline in soil organic C mineralization from combined saltwater intrusion and prolonged inundation was not significant, but results suggest SLR could increase this soil’s susceptibility to peat collapse and accelerate nutrient and DOC export to adjacent Florida Bay.

Timescales for Detecting a Significant Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Compositional Effects of Sea-Level Rise in a Patchy Landscape: The Dynamics of Tree Islands in the Southeastern Coastal Everglades

The landscape structure of emergent wetlands in undeveloped portions of the southeastern coastal Everglades is comprised of two distinct components: scattered forest fragments, or tree islands, surrounded by a low matrix of marsh or shrub-dominated vegetation. Changes in the matrix, including the inland transgression of salt-tolerant mangroves and the recession of sawgrass marshes, have been attributed to the combination of sea level rise and reductions in fresh water supply. In this study we examined concurrent changes in the composition of the region’s tree islands over a period of almost three decades. No trend in species composition toward more salt-tolerant trees was observed anywhere, but species characteristic of freshwater swamps increased in forests in which fresh water supply was augmented. Tree islands in the coastal Everglades appear to be buffered from some of the short term effects of salt water intrusion, due to their ability to build soils above the surface of the surrounding wetlands, thus maintaining mesophytic conditions. However, the apparent resistance of tree islands to changes associated with sea level rise is likely to be a temporary stage, as continued salt water intrusion will eventually overwhelm the forests’ capacity to maintain fresh water in the rooting zone.

Sediment Accretion and Organic Carbon Burial Relative to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Events in Two Mangrove Forests in Everglades National Park

The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr− 1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m− 2 yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m− 2 yr− 1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.

Sea Level Rise Map Projections

A presentation of maps illustrating the percentage of land surface remaining at varying sea level rise from 1ft - 12ft in Miami-Dade County.

Cutler Bay Township: Sea Level Rise 1990 - 2160 Resulting from Global Climate Change

Draft Document. Presentation of maps produced from digital LIDAR elevation grids and contoured at 1 ft. levels illustration sea level rise for the Cutler Bay Township in Miami-Dade County.

Maps of Sea Level Rise - Nautilus Island, Miami Beach, FL

A series of 7 maps illustrating the impact of sea level rise on Nautilus Island in Miami Beach.

Evaluating the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Sea Turtle Nesting Sites: A Case Study of the Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge

The purpose of this thesis was to determine the extent of sea level rise (SLR) impact on sea turtle nesting beach habitat on Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) as well as impacts on management strategies. The Archie Carr NWR is of exceptional importance due to the high density of Loggerhead, Leatherback, and Green sea turtles that nest there in the summer months. GIS data provided by the Archie Carr NWR and various SLR scenarios, provided by both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as leading scholars, were used to determine inundation area loss across the Refuge as well as nearby parcels targeted for possible acquisition. Inundation losses for the six scenarios were calculated to be in the 20-25% range. Approximately 26% of current lower priority parcels are reclassified as high priority when integrating this information. Therefore, a significant revision to future acquisition strategies is recommended.

Barrier Island Response to Sea Level Rise in North Carolina

The state of North Carolina is home to some of the most spectacular barrier islands in the world. These features are constantly shifting, impacted by waves, tides, and wind. Studies of the Outer Banks, North Carolina have resulted in varied results, but a detailed analysis of the barrier system as a whole is lacking. Using historic topographic surveys (T-sheets) from the 19th, the positions of various barrier segments were analyzed in relation to modern imagery. Changes in area, width, and center line locations were evaluated over the past 150 years. In total, 74 percent of modern transects have decreased in area. Total reductions in size were 130 km2 for the study period. Mean centerlines as a function of migration showed that 53 percent of segments were demonstrating directional movement away from the ocean. The average movement towards the bay between modern and historic centerlines was 8 meters. Thusly, barrier islands in North Carolina are demonstrating both decreases in total area and directional movement inland in response to sea level rise.