Technology Choice, Change of Trade Structure, and A Case of Hungarian Economy

In the IT industry, there has been a remarkable increase in the demand for system LSI. A system LSI must be tailor-designed for each electrical appliance, and then produced. It is said that in recent years, this production method has made the IC cycle ambiguous. It can be sought that the choice of whether the economy pursues a development path centering on technology which is tradable or technology which is embodied in labor, depends on the historical background. In this paper, the economic background is explained in order to analyze and capture movements in the IT industry and technology. Then, an econometric model for Hungary has been constructed to estimate the effect of technological progress on the economy.

Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

Conflict and land tenure in Rwanda

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the historical relation between conflict and land tenure in Rwanda, a country that experienced a harsh civil war and genocide in the mid-1990s. The victory of the Tutsi-led rebel, Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) at that time triggered a massive return of refugees and a drastic change in land tenure policy. These were refugees who had fled the country at around the time of independence, in 1962, due to the political turmoil and persecution (the "social revolution") and who shared the background of the core RPF members. The social revolution had dismantled the existent Tutsi-led political order, compelling many Tutsi families to seek refuge outside their homeland. Under the post-independence rule of a Hutu-led government, the Tutsi refugees were not allowed to return and the lands they left behind were often arbitrarily distributed by local authorities among Hutu peasants. After victory in the mid-1990s civil war, the newly established RPF-led government ordered the current inhabitants of the lands to divide the properties in order to allocate portions to the Tutsi returnees. Different patterns of land holding and land division will be explained in the paper from data gathered through the authors' fieldworks in the southern and eastern parts of Rwanda. Although overt resistance to land division has not been observed to date, the land rights of the Tutsi returnees must be considered unstable because their legitimacy depends primarily on the strength and political stability of the RPF-led government. If the authority of RPF were to weaken, the land rights will be jeopardized. Throughout Rwandan history, in which political exclusion has often led to serious conflict, macro-level politics have repeatedly influenced land holding. Promotion of an inclusive democracy, therefore, is indispensable to escape the vicious circle between political instability and land rights.

Features of Land Conflicts in Post Civil War Rwanda

Land conflicts in Rwanda have attracted particular attention because they have both environmental and political causes. This paper attempts to shed light on the nature of land conflicts in present-day Rwanda based on popular justice records and interviews collected in two rural areas. From the analyses of these data, two types of land confl ict can be distinguished. The first type consists of those among family members. Given that land is the most important asset for ordinary rural households, its inheritance often brings about conflicts between right-holders. Those of the second type are triggered by political change. Impacts of the two national-level violent conflicts in Rwanda, the “social revolution” just before independence and the civil war in the 1990s, are of tremendous significance in this context. The military victory of the former rebels in 1994 caused a massive return of Tutsi refugees, who were officially permitted to acquire land from the original inhabitants. Although no serious protestation against this policy has occurred thus far, it has produced various land conflicts. Dealing with potential grievances among original inhabitants is an important challenge for the present government.

Lebanon and the Syrian conflict 2011-2013

2011年に発生したアラブ世界での民衆蜂起は、市民としてのアラブ人が近代的で民主的な国家を建設しようとする努力であった。その意味でアラブ民衆蜂起が発生した主な原因はもっぱら国内要因であり、そこに地域的、国際的な介入が加わったのである。アラブ民衆蜂起はシリアでは内戦に発展し、その影響は現在周辺国にも及んでいる。シリアが内戦に至った要因を理解するためには、シリアとそれを取り巻く現状を理解するだけでなく，シリアという国家が持つ歴史、なかでもフランス委任統治期の分断統治政策の失敗、ハーフィズ・アサドによる独裁体制の構築と継続、イスラエルによる干渉といったシリア現代史の影響を検討することが重要である。シリア内戦はレバノン、ヨルダン、トルコなどの周辺国にも少なからぬ影響を与えている。シリア難民の流出は、レバノンとヨルダンにとって社会と経済の負荷となっている。またシリア国内の分断と混乱は、レバノンの国内宗派対立をも先鋭化させた。他方でシリア内戦が長期化するにともない、イスラエルによるシリアとレバノンへの干渉が懸念されるようになっている。シリア内戦およびそれに対するイスラエルの対応は、結果的にレバノンへの大きな圧力となった。今後レバノンが主権国家としての安定的な地位を維持するためには、シリア内戦への政治的な関与を避け，国内各勢力の融和および各勢力の協調による国家運営を進めることがこれまで以上に必要である。