台湾WTO加盟後の対中政策手段とFTA外交

WTO加盟は台湾にとって、初めての国連組織への加盟となる。また、FTAへの参加資格を得た点において大きな外交得点であった。しかし、中国との経済関係の自由化を迫られるデメリットがあるが、中国との政治的な緊張関係を利用して台湾は自由化を遅らせることもできる。一方、他のWTOメンバーとのFTA締結は法的障害を除去しても、中国の反対がネックとなっている。

The Policy Making Process in FTA Negotiations: A Case Study of Japanese Bilateral EPAs

This paper analyzes Japanese bilateral EPA negotiations, focusing on the areas that each country decided were most important, as well as which actors played the most important roles in each set of negotiations. The negotiations with Mexico and Thailand, which tried to increase agricultural exports to Japan through FTAs, will be discussed. Japan, one should note, still seeks to protect its agricultural sector in spite of the spread of liberalization. The Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia’s efforts to improve and compete in developing their automotive industries, in the face of the completion of AFTA in 2010, are also examined. In addition, this paper discusses whether economic cooperation, the essential Japanese strategy in EPA negotiations, alters the negotiation process in any significant way.

第3章 関税・輸入商品税除去の生産コストへの効果とFTA: アジア国際産業連関表による価格分析

アジア国際産業連関表は、各国各産業の生産構造において関税・輸入商品税を投入要素として明示的にしている。2000年アジア国際産業連関表を用いて、特定(複数)国の関税･輸入商品税の除去がどの程度生産コスト低減に波及するかを、これまで例のなかった国際表による価格モデルによって、中国、日本およびアセアンの組み合わせ(FTA)による効果を検討した。その結果、これまで他の分析から言われている日・中・アセアンFTA が最も効果があるということが、価格モデルからも示されることが判明した。

The Japan-Peru FTA : antecedents, significance and main features

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and Peru came into effect on March 1, 2012. This paper provides background information about this agreement's significance, mostly from a Peruvian point of view. It focuses on the following subjects: the statistical trends showing Peru's declining shares in Japan's trade and investment flows with Latin American countries between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s, the main explanatory factors of such a deterioration in Peru's economic position over that period, the changes of trade policy strategy in both countries since the 2000s, and the EPA negotiation process and some of its key results as featured in the text of the agreement.

Firms' use of FTA schemes in exporting and importing : is there a two-way relationship?

In this paper, we examine the roles of firm size in the use of FTA schemes in exporting and importing. Also, it is investigated as to whether FTA users in importing (exporting) are more likely to use FTA schemes in exporting (importing). To do that, we employed a unique survey in which the detailed information on FTA use is available for Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, firm size matters in the use of FTA schemes only in exporting, not in importing. Second, the past experience of FTA use in exporting (importing) does not help firms use the FTA schemes in importing (exporting). Thus, it is necessary to assist firms to use FTA schemes in exporting even if they are already using FTA schemes in importing.

Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance

The international export and investment activities of firms have been widely studied by scholars. In particular, prior studies have focused on two main hypotheses about firms engaged in international activities such as exporting and investing abroad; namely, self-selection of more productive firms into international activities and learning-by-doing international activities. This paper is the first study that explores these hypotheses in regard to firms’ use of free trade agreements (FTAs). We first estimate the propensity score for firms’ use of FTA schemes, and find that larger firms are more likely to participate. Then, by conducting matching analysis using the propensity scores, we find that the use of FTA schemes does not change employment in firms, but does result in more local inputs used and increased exports.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

FTA utilization : certificate of origin data versus customs data

This paper empirically examines what kinds of elements affect the gap in free trade agreement (FTA) utilization with regard to customs data and certificates of origin (CoOs) data. We focus on Thai exports to Korea under the ASEAN-Korea FTA in 2011. As a result, we found that the products with the higher demand volatility or those with a larger number of tariff-line products within the same harmonized system (HS) six-digit code have the larger gap. Another important finding is that the difference between the HS version at the time of the FTA negotiation and the current HS version does not have significant association with the gap. These findings have important implications.

Impacts of common rules of origin on FTA utilization

This paper examines empirically the impacts of sharing rules of origin (RoOs) with other ASEAN+1 free trade agreements (FTAs) on ASEAN-Korea FTA/ASEAN-China FTA utilization in Thai exports in 2011. Our careful empirical analysis suggests that the harmonization of RoOs across FTAs play some role in reducing the costs yielded through the spaghetti bowl phenomenon. In particular, the harmonization to "change-in-tariff classification (CTC) or real value-added content (RVC)" will play a relatively positive role in not seriously discouraging firms’ use of multiple FTA schemes. On the other hand, the harmonization to CTC or CTC&RVC hinders firms from using those schemes.

New measures of FTA liberalization level

This paper proposes new measures of the liberalization level of free trade agreements (FTAs). Our measures take three issues into account. First, in order to identify the differences in FTA liberalization level over time, we compute the annual liberalization level rather than the level during the whole period. Second, our measure includes information on tariff margins, i.e. the difference between FTA rates and most favoured nation rates. Third, the restrictiveness of rules of origin (RoOs) is also taken into account in order to penalize the liberalization level of products with more restrictive RoOs. In this paper, we compute such measures of FTA liberalization level for three FTAs in Thailand.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? : simulation analysis based on an extended knowledge-capital model

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract FDI, this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model. With a special focus on the effects of FTAs/EPAs between market countries and developing countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (1) Although FTA/EPA generally ends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labor becomes higher as the size of the country declines; (2) Because the additional implementation of cost-saving policies to reduce firm-type/trade-link specific fixed costs ends to depreciate the price of skilled labor by saving its input, a developing country, which is extremely scarce in skilled labor, is better off avoiding the additional option; (3) If a country hopes to enjoy larger welfare gains with EPA, efforts to increase skilled labor in the country, such as investing in education, may be beneficial.

Measuring the costs of FTA utilization : evidence from transaction-level import data of Thailand

In this study, we measure the utilization costs of free trade agreement (FTA) tariff schemes. To do that, we use shipment-level customs data on Thai imports, which identify not only firms, source country, and commodity but also tariff schemes. We propose several measures as a proxy for FTA utilization costs. The example includes the minimum amount of firm-level savings on tariff payments, i.e., trade values under FTA schemes multiplied by the tariff margin, in all transactions. Consequently, the median costs for FTA utilization in 2008, for example, are estimated to be approximately US$2,000 for exports from China, US$300 for exports from Australia, and US$1,000 for exports from Japan. We also found that FTA utilization costs differ by rule of origin and industry.

Integration under 'One Country, Two Systems' - The Case of Mainland China and Hong Kong-

Ever since the handover of the territory in 1997, Hong Kong has had its own unique law and its own economic system and international legal personality, and has not been integrated with Mainland China. The Basic Law guarantees the uniqueness of the Hong Kong SAR until 2047. But close economic ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland will promote closer economic integration. The Basic Law limits only a customs union and the introduction of a single currency, but not the formation of a Free Trade Agreement (hereafter FTA) and monetary union. FTA has already been realized in the form of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (hereafter CEPA). The Hong Kong SAR government, including the bureaucrat as well as the Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa, was opposed to, and hesitant towards, the formation of a regional trade agreement with the Mainland, but the business community made them to adopt a positive attitude towards the CEPA. It is unclear how much integration can been deepened, but it can be argued that the current policy of the Hong Kong SAR is too supportive of business, and an excessive degree of economic integration may threaten the uniqueness of Hong Kong. But if Hong Kong achieves democracy and enjoys complete autonomy, it will be easy for economic integration to co-exist with the 'One Country, Two Systems' approach, in the interests of the business community and of the citizens of the SAR.

アジアは一つになれるか？: ASEAN型「統合」からの脱却の必要性

東アジア共同体の議論は、FTAが基礎になる。だが、FTA自体が本当の統合なのか疑問が残る。もし、アジアがEU型の本格的な深い統合を目指すなら、ASEAN中心主義や中国の深い関与が足かせになる。経済発展と民主化が一定水準に達したアジアやオセアニアの先進国による新たな統合の核が必要である。