Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Transient Holocene experiments under orbital forcing using the comprehensive global climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3)

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) have been suggested to exert a critical influence on global climate through wind-driven upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and the potentially resulting atmospheric CO2 variations. The investigation of the temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW along with forcings and feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate research. In this study, the evolution of the SWW under orbital forcing from the early Holocene (9 kyr BP) to pre-industrial modern times is examined with transient experiments using the comprehensive coupled global climate model CCSM3. Analyses of the model results suggest that the annual and seasonal mean SWW were subject to an overall strengthening and poleward shifting trend during the course of the early-to-late Holocene under the influence of orbital forcing, except for the austral spring season, where the SWW exhibited an opposite trend of shifting towards the equator.

Aprubt climate change events in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

The western Iberian margin has been one of the key locations to study abrupt glacial climate change and associated interhemispheric linkages. The regional variability in the response to those events is being studied by combining a multitude of published and new records. Looking at the trend from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 to 2, the planktic foraminifer data, conform with the alkenone record of Martrat et al. [2007], shows that abrupt climate change events, especially the Heinrich events, became more frequent and their impacts in general stronger during the last glacial cycle. However, there were two older periods with strong impacts on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the Heinrich-type event associated with Termination (T) IV and the one occurring during MIS 8 (269 to 265 ka). During the Heinrich stadials of the last glacial cycle, the polar front reached the northern Iberian margin (ca. 41°N), while the arctic front was located in the vicinity of 39°N. During all the glacial periods studied, there existed a boundary at the latter latitude, either the arctic front during extreme cold events or the subarctic front during less strong coolings or warmer glacials. Along with these fronts sea surface temperatures (SST) increased southward by about 1°C per one degree of latitude leading to steep temperature gradients in the eastern North Atlantic and pointing to a close vicinity between subpolar and subtropical waters. The southern Iberian margin was always bathed by subtropical water masses - surface and/ or subsurface ones -, but there were periods when these waters also penetrated northward to 40.6°N. Glacial hydrographic conditions were similar during MIS 2 and 4, but much different during MIS 6. MIS 6 was a warmer glacial with the polar front being located further to the north allowing the subtropical surface and subsurface waters to reach at minimum as far north as 40.6°N and resulting in relative stable conditions on the southern margin. In the vertical structure, the Greenland-type climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle were recorded down to 2465 m during the Heinrich stadials, i.e. slightly deeper than in the western basin. This deeper boundary is related to the admixing of Mediterranean Outflow Water, which also explains the better ventilation of the intermediate-depth water column on the Iberian margin. This compilation revealed that latitudinal, longitudinal and vertical gradients existed in the waters along the Iberian margin, i.e. in a relative restricted area, but sufficient paleo-data exists now to validate regional climate models for abrupt climate change events in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean.

Results of Heinrich event 1 simulation from the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

Climate forecast data (Nino3.4 SST, Arctic sea ice extent) and observational references, link to files in Rdata format

This data set contains seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature and Arctic sea ice extent from state-of-the-art climate models, along with observational references used to evaluate those forecasts. Common skill scores like the correlation between modelled and observed time series are also reported.

Surface wind stress modeled for the Panama Seaway with the Community Climate System Model 3

The early Pliocene warm phase was characterized by high sea surface temperatures and a deep thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A new hypothesis suggests that the progressive closure of the Panamanian seaway contributed substantially to the termination of this zonally symmetric state in the equatorial Pacific. According to this hypothesis, intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) - induced by the closure of the gateway - was the principal cause of equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling during the Pliocene. In this study, twelve Panama seaway sensitivity experiments from eight ocean/climate models of different complexity are analyzed to examine the effect of an open gateway on AMOC strength and thermocline depth. All models show an eastward Panamanian net throughflow, leading to a reduction in AMOC strength compared to the corresponding closed-Panama case. In those models that do not include a dynamic atmosphere, deepening of the equatorial Pacific thermocline appears to scale almost linearly with the throughflow-induced reduction in AMOC strength. Models with dynamic atmosphere do not follow this simple relation. There are indications that in four out of five models equatorial wind-stress anomalies amplify the tropical Pacific thermocline deepening. In summary, the models provide strong support for the hypothesized relationship between Panama closure and equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling.

Transient simulations for present and last interglacials using a comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3.0), links to model result files in NetCDF format

Transient simulations are widely used in studying the past climate as they provide better comparison with any exisiting proxy data. However, multi-millennial transient simulations using coupled climate models are usually computationally very expensive. As a result several acceleration techniques are implemented when using numerical simulations to recreate past climate. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere. The data provided here are from both accelerated and non-accelerated runs as decadal mean values.

Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Stable isotope record of Cretaceous samples of DSDP Hole 71-511

Oxygen isotope data for upper Turonian planktonic foraminifera at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 511 (Falkland Plateau, 60°S paleolatitude) exhibit an ~2 per mil excursion to values as low as -4.66 per mil (Vienna Peedee belemnite standard; PDB) coincident with the warmest tropical temperature estimates yet obtained for the open ocean. The lowest planktonic foraminifer d18O values suggest that the upper ocean was as warm as 30-32°C. This is an extraordinary temperature for 60°S latitude but is consistent with temperatures estimated from apparently coeval mollusc d18O from nearby James Ross Island (65°S paleolatitude). Glassy textural preservation, a well-defined depth distribution in Site 511 planktonics, low sediment burial temperature (~32°C), and lack of evidence of highly depleted pore waters argue against diagenesis (even solid state diffusion) as the cause of the very depleted planktonic values. The lack of change in benthic foraminifer d18O suggests brackish water capping as the mechanism for the low planktonic d18O values. However, mixing ratio calculations show that the amount of freshwater required to produce a 2 per mil shift in ambient water would drive a 7 psu decrease in salinity. The abundance and diversity of planktonic foraminifera and nannofossils, high planktonic:benthic ratios, and the appearance of keeled foraminifera argue against lower-than-normal marine salinities. Isotope calculations and climate models indicate that we cannot call upon more depleted freshwater d18O to explain this record. Without more late Turonian data, especially from outside the South Atlantic basin, we can currently only speculate on possible causes of this paradoxical record from the core of the Cretaceous greenhouse.

Fluxes and meteorological observations on Spitsbergen

Arctic permafrost may be adversely affected by climate change in a number of ways, so that establishing a world-wide monitoring program seems imperative. This thesis evaluates possibilities for permafrost monitoring at the example of a permafrost site on Svalbard, Norway. An energy balance model for permafrost temperatures is developed that evaluates the different components of the surface energy budget in analogy to climate models. The surface energy budget, consisting of radiation components, sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the ground heat flux, is measured over the course of one year, which has not been accomplished for arctic land areas so far. A considerable small-scale heterogeneity of the summer surface temperature is observed in long-term measurements with a thermal imaging system, which can be reproduced in the energy balance model. The model can also simulate the impact of different snow depths on the soil temperature, that has been documented in field measurements. Furthermore, time series of terrestrial surface temperature measurements are compared to satellite-borne measurements, for which a significant cold-bias is observed during winter. Finally, different possibilities for a world-wide monitoring scheme are assessed. Energy budget models can incorporate different satellite data sets as training data sets for parameter estimation, so that they may constitute an alternative to purely satellite-based schemes.

Basic and other measurements of radiation from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) Station Ny-Ålesund in the years 1992 to 2013, reference list of 253 datasets

At Ny-Ålesund (78.9° N), Svalbard, surface radiation measurements of up- and downward short- and longwave radiation are operated since August 1992 in the frame of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), complemented with surface and upper air meteorology since August 1993. The long-term observations are the base for a climatological presentation of the surface radiation data. Over the 21-year observation period, ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system are reflected. Particularly, the observations indicate a strong seasonality of surface warming and related changes in different radiation parameters. The annual mean temperature at Ny-Ålesund has risen by +1.3 ± 0.7 K per decade, with a maximum seasonal increase during the winter months of +3.1 ± 2.6 K per decade. At the same time, winter is also the season with the largest long-term changes in radiation, featuring an increase of +15.6 ± 11.6 W/m**2 per decade in the downward longwave radiation. Furthermore, changes in the reflected solar radiation during the months of snow melt indicate an earlier onset of the warm season by about 1 week compared to the beginning of the observations. The online available dataset of Ny-Ålesund surface radiation measurements provides a valuable data source for the validation of satellite instruments and climate models.

Larcform 1 - single column model intercomparison of Arctic air formation, link to model results in NetCDF format

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, not least because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. The Arctic boundary layer in winter has been observed to be in either a radiatively clear or cloudy state: The radiatively clear state is characterized by strong surface radiative cooling leading to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions, whereas the cloudy state occurs when cloud liquid water is present in the atmospheric column, allowing little or no surface radiative cooling and leading to weaker and typically elevated temperature inversions. Many large-scale models have been shown to lack the cloudy state, and some do substantially underestimate stability in the clear state. We here present results from the first Lagrangian ARCtic air FORMation experiment (Larcform 1), a GASS (Global atmospheric system studies) single-column model intercomparison which reproduces these biases of large-scale models in an idealised setup.

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope stratigraphy of ODP Site 138-846 in the tropical Pacific Ocean

A stable-isotope stratigraphy at Site 846 (tropical Pacific, 3°06'S, 90°49'W, 3307 m water depth), based on the benthic foraminifers Cibicides wuellerstorfi and Uvigerina peregrina, yields a high-resolution record of deep-sea delta18O and delta13C over the past 1.8 Ma, with an average sampling interval of 3 k.y. Variance in the delta18O and delta13C records is concentrated in the well-known orbital periods of 100, 41, and 23 k.y. In the 100-k.y. band, both isotopic signals grow from relatively low amplitudes prior to 1.2 Ma, to high amplitudes in the late Quaternary since 0.7 Ma. The amplitude of delta18O and especially of delta13C decreases in the 41-k.y. band as it grows in the 100-k.y. band, consistent with a transfer of energy into an orbitally-paced internal oscillation. A weak 30-k.y. rhythm, present in both delta18O and delta13C, may reflect nonlinear interaction between the 41-k.y. and 100-k.y. bands in the evolving climate system. In the 23-k.y. and 19-k.y. bands associated with orbital precession, delta18O and delta13C are not coherent with each other on long time scales, and do not evolve like the 100-k.y. and 41-k.y. bands. This suggests that the source of the growing 100-k.y. oscillation is not a nonlinear response to precession, in contrast to predictions of some climate models. Sedimentation rates at this site also vary with a strong 100-k.y. cycle. Unlike the isotope records, the amplitude of 100-k.y. variations in sedimentation rate is relatively constant over the past 1.8 Ma, ranging from about 15 to 70 m/m.y. Prior to 0.9 Ma, sedimentation rates co-vary with orbital eccentricity, rather than with global climate as reflected by delta18O or delta13C. A source of this 100-k.y. cycle of sedimentation rate in the absence of similar ice volume fluctuations may be precessional heating of equatorial land masses, which in an energy balance climate model drives variations of monsoonal climates with a 100-k.y. rhythm. For the interval younger than 0.9 Ma, high sedimentation rates in the 100-k.y. band are consistently associated with glacial stages. This change of pattern suggests that when the amplitude of glacial cycles become large enough, their global effects overpower a local monsoon-driven variation in sedimentation rate at Site 846.