Mapping decadal land cover changes in the woodlands of north eastern Namibia using the Landsat satellite archive (1975-2014)

Woodland savannahs provide essential ecosystem functions and services to communities. On the African continent, they are widely utilized and converted to intensive land uses. This study investigates the land cover changes of 108,038 km**2 in NE Namibia using multi-temporal, multi-sensor Landsat imagery, at decadal intervals from 1975 to 2014, with a post-classification change detection method and supervised Regression Tree classifiers. We discuss likely impacts of land tenure and reforms over the past four decades on changes in land use and land cover. These changes included losses, gains and exchanges between predominant land cover classes. Exchanges comprised logical conversions between woodland and agricultural classes, implying woodland clearing for arable farming, cropland abandonment and vegetation succession. The most dominant change was a reduction in the area of the woodland class due to the expansion of the agricultural class, specifically, small-scale cereal and pastoral production. Woodland area decreased from 90% of the study area in 1975 to 83% in 2014, while cleared land increased from 9% to 14%. We found that the main land cover changes are conversion from woodland to agricultural and urban land uses, driven by urban expansion and woodland clearing for subsistence-based agriculture and pastoralism.

Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water

Precise measurements were conducted in continuous flow seawater mesocosms located in full sunlight that compared metabolic response of coral, coral-macroalgae and macroalgae systems over a diurnal cycle. Irradiance controlled net photosynthesis (Pnet), which in turn drove net calcification (Gnet), and altered pH. Pnet exerted the dominant control on [CO3]2- and aragonite saturation state (Omega arag) over the diel cycle. Dark calcification rate decreased after sunset, reaching zero near midnight followed by an increasing rate that peaked at 03:00 h. Changes in Omega arag and pH lagged behind Gnet throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate Pnet was the primary driver of calcification. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the bulk seawater and photosynthesis provides the energy that drives Gnet while increasing the bulk water pH. These relationships result in a correlation between Gnet and Omega arag, with Omega arag as the dependent variable. High rates of H+ efflux continued for several hours following mid-day peak Gnet suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Hypothesis. DIC flux (uptake) followed Pnet and Gnet and dropped off rapidly following peak Pnet and peak Gnet indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H+. Over a 24 h period the plot of total alkalinity (AT) versus DIC as well as the plot of Gnet versus Omega arag revealed a circular hysteresis pattern over the diel cycle in the coral and coral-algae mesocosms, but not the macroalgae mesocosm. Presence of macroalgae did not change Gnet of the corals, but altered the relationship between Omega arag and Gnet. Predictive models of how future global changes will effect coral growth that are based on oceanic Omega arag must include the influence of future localized Pnet on Gnet and changes in rate of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between Omega arag and Gnet over the diel cycle is simply the response of the CO2-carbonate system to increased pH as photosynthesis shifts the equilibria and increases the [CO3]2- relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3]- and [CO2]. Therefore Omega arag closely tracked pH as an effect of changes in Pnet, which also drove changes in Gnet. Measurements of DIC flux and H+ flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.

Seasonal changes in the D/H ratio of fatty acids of pelagic microorganisms

Culture studies of microorganisms have shown that the hydrogen isotopic composition of fatty acids depends on their metabolism, but there are only few environmental studies available to confirm this observation. Here we studied the seasonal variability of the deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) ratio of fatty acids in the coastal Dutch North Sea and compared this with the diversity of the phyto- and bacterioplankton. Over the year, the stable hydrogen isotopic fractionation factor epsilon between fatty acids and water ranged between -172 per mil and -237 per mil, the algal-derived polyunsaturated fatty acid nC20:5 being the most D-depleted and nC18:0 the least D-depleted fatty acid. The D-depleted nC20:5 is in agreement with culture studies, which indicates that photoautotrophic microorganisms produce fatty acids which are significantly depleted in D relative to water. The epsilon-lipid/water of all fatty acids showed a transient shift towards increased fractionation during the spring phytoplankton bloom, indicated by increasing chlorophyll a concentrations and relative abundance of the nC20:5 PUFA, suggesting increased contributions of photoautotrophy. Time periods with decreased fractionation (less negative epsilon-lipid/water values) can be explained by an increased contribution by heterotrophy to the fatty acid pool. Our results show that the hydrogen isotopic composition of fatty acids is a useful tool to assess the community metabolism of coastal plankton.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Paleoenvironmental changes in the western Mediterranean since the last glacial maximum: High resolution multiproxy record from the Algero-Balearic basin

The present study uses a multiproxy approach in order to further understand the evolution of climate responses in the western Mediterranean as of the Last Glacial Maximum. Sediments from ODP Site 975 in the Algero-Balearic basin have been analysed at high resolution, both geochemically andmineralogicallly. The resulting data have been used as proxies to establish a sedimentary regime, primary marine productivity, the preservation of the proxies and oxygen conditions. Fluctuations in detrital element concentrations were mainly the consequence of wet/arid oscillations. Productivity has been established using Ba excess, according to which marine productivity appears to have been greatest during cold events Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas. The S1 time interval was not as marked by increases in productivity as was the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, the S1 interval was first characterized by a decreasing trend and then by a fall in productivity after the 8.2 ky BP dry-cold event. Since then productivity has remained low. Here we report that there was an important redox event in this basin, probably a consequence of the major oceanographic circulation change occurring in the western Mediterranean at 7.7 ky BP. This circulation change led to reventilation as well as to diagenetic remobilization of redox-sensitive elements and organic matter oxidation. Comparisons between our paleoceanographic reconstruction for this basin and those regarding other Mediterranean basins support the hypothesis that across the Mediterranean there were different types of responses to climate forcing mechanism. The Algero-Balearic basin is likely to be a key area for further understanding of the relationships between the North Atlantic and the eastern Mediterranean basins.

Gene expression changes in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi after 500 generations of selection to ocean acidification

Coccolithophores are unicellular marine algae that produce biogenic calcite scales and substantially contribute to marine primary production and carbon export to the deep ocean. Ongoing ocean acidification particularly impairs calcifying organisms, mostly resulting in decreased growth and calcification. Recent studies revealed that the immediate physiological response in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi to ocean acidification may be partially compensated by evolutionary adaptation, yet the underlying molecular mechanisms are currently unknown. Here, we report on the expression levels of 10 candidate genes putatively relevant to pH regulation, carbon transport, calcification and photosynthesis in E. huxleyi populations short-term exposed to ocean acidification conditions after acclimation (physiological response) and after 500 generations of high CO2 adaptation (adaptive response). The physiological response revealed downregulation of candidate genes, well reflecting the concomitant decrease of growth and calcification. In the adaptive response, putative pH regulation and carbon transport genes were up-regulated, matching partial restoration of growth and calcification in high CO2-adapted populations. Adaptation to ocean acidification in E. huxleyi likely involved improved cellular pH regulation, presumably indirectly affecting calcification. Adaptive evolution may thus have the potential to partially restore cellular pH regulatory capacity and thereby mitigate adverse effects of ocean acidification.

Detection of a variable intracellular acid-labile carbon pool in Thalassiosira weissflogii (Heterokontophyta) and Emiliania huxleyi (Haptophyta) in response to changes in the seawater carbon system

Accumulation of an intracellular pool of carbon (C(i) pool) is one strategy by which marine algae overcome the low abundance of dissolved CO2 (CO2 (aq) ) in modern seawater. To identify the environmental conditions under which algae accumulate an acid-labile C(i) pool, we applied a (14) C pulse-chase method, used originally in dinoflagellates, to two new classes of algae, coccolithophorids and diatoms. This method measures the carbon accumulation inside the cells without altering the medium carbon chemistry or culture cell density. We found that the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii [(Grunow) G. Fryxell & Hasle] and a calcifying strain of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi [(Lohmann) W. W. Hay & H. P. Mohler] develop significant acid-labile C(i) pools. C(i) pools are measureable in cells cultured in media with 2-30 µmol/l CO2 (aq), corresponding to a medium pH of 8.6-7.9. The absolute C(i) pool was greater for the larger celled diatoms. For both algal classes, the C(i) pool became a negligible contributor to photosynthesis once CO2 (aq) exceeded 30 µmol/l. Combining the (14) C pulse-chase method and (14) C disequilibrium method enabled us to assess whether E. huxleyi and T. weissflogii exhibited thresholds for foregoing accumulation of DIC or reduced the reliance on bicarbonate uptake with increasing CO2 (aq) . We showed that the C(i) pool decreases with higher CO2 :HCO3 (-) uptake rates.

Circulation, eddies, oxygen and nutrient changes in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

A large, subsurface oxygen deficiency zone is located in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean (ETSP). The large-scale circulation in the eastern equatorial Pacific and off Peru in November/December 2012 shows the influence of the equatorial current system, the eastern boundary currents, and the northern reaches of the subtropical gyre. In November 2012 the Equatorial Undercurrent is centered at 250 m depth, deeper than in earlier observations. In December 2012 the equatorial water is transported southeastward near the shelf in the Peru-Chile Undercurrent with a mean transport of 1.6 Sv. In the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) the flow is overlaid with strong eddy activity on the poleward side of the OMZ. Floats with parking depth at 400 m show fast westward flow in the mid-depth equatorial channel and sluggish flow in the OMZ. Floats with oxygen sensors clearly show the passage of eddies with oxygen anomalies. The long-term float observations in the upper ocean lead to a net community production estimate at about 18° S of up to 16.7 mmol C m?3 yr1 extrapolated to an annual rate and 7.7 mmol C m?3 yr?1 for the time period below the mixed layer. Oxygen differences between repeated ship sections are influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, by the phase of El Niño, by seasonal changes, and by eddies and hence have to be interpreted with care. At and south of the equator the decrease in oxygen in the upper ocean since 1976 is related to an increase in nitrate, phosphate, and in part in silicate.

Regional vegetation changes in the tropical Andes expressed as arboreal pollen (AP%), standardised ordination scores (DCA z-scores), and aquatic vegetation ratios (D/SS); files used for plots

We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 50 ka, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for extracting environmental variability from pollen records. We also use the records of aquatic and shoreline vegetation as markers for lake level fluctuations, and precipitation change. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale variability in the tropical Andes, in particular, Heinrich stadials and Greenland interstadials. We identify rapid responses of the tropical vegetation to this climate variability, and relate differences between sites to moisture sources and site sensitivity.

Changes in the vegetation and trade winds in equatorial Northwest Africa 140,000-70,000 yr B.P., as deduced from two marine pollen records

The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.

Productivity- and ocean circulation changes in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last deglaciation and Marine Isotope Stage 3

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a 'control valve' on ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air-sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean's 'organic carbon pump' has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.