8 resultados para Probability distribution
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.
Resumo:
We present a new record of eolian dust flux to the western Subarctic North Pacific (SNP) covering the past 27000 years based on a core from the Detroit Seamount. Comparing the SNP dust record to the NGRIP ice core record shows significant differences in the amplitude of dust changes to the two regions during the last deglaciation, while the timing of abrupt changes is synchronous. If dust deposition in the SNP faithfully records its mobilization in East Asian source regions, then the difference in the relative amplitude must reflect climate-related changes in atmospheric dust transport to Greenland. Based on the synchronicity in the timing of dust changes in the SNP and Greenland, we tie abrupt deglacial transitions in the 230Th-normalized 4He flux record to corresponding transitions in the well-dated NGRIP dust flux record to provide a new chronostratigraphic technique for marine sediments from the SNP. Results from this technique are complemented by radiocarbon dating, which allows us to independently constrain radiocarbon paleoreservoir ages. We find paleoreservoir ages of 745 ± 140 yr at 11653 yr BP, 680 ± 228 yr at 14630 yr BP and 790 ± 498 yr at 23290 yr BP. Our reconstructed paleoreservoir ages are consistent with modern surface water reservoir ages in the western SNP. Good temporal synchronicity between eolian dust records from the Subantarctic Atlantic and equatorial Pacific and the ice core record from Antarctica supports the reliability of the proposed dust tuning method to be used more widely in other global ocean regions.
Resumo:
The modern subarctic Pacific is characterized by a steep salinity-driven surface water stratification, which hampers the supply of saline and nutrient-rich deeper waters into the euphotic zone, limiting productivity. However, the strength of the halocline might have varied in the past. Here, we present diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) stable isotope data from the open subarctic North-East (NE) Pacific (SO202-27-6; Gulf of Alaska), in combination with other proxy data (Neogloboquadrina pachydermasin d18O, biogenic opal, Ca and Fe intensities, IRD), to evaluate changes in surface water hydrography and productivity during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, characterized by millennial-scale temperature changes (Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles) documented in Greenland ice cores.
Resumo:
The glacial-to-Holocene evolution of subarctic Pacific surface water stratification and silicic acid (Si) dynamics is investigated based on new combined diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) isotope records, along with new biogenic opal, subsurface foraminiferal d18O, alkenone-based sea surface temperature, sea ice, diatom, and core logging data from the NE Pacific. Our results suggest that d18Odiat values are primarily influenced by changes in freshwater discharge from the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS), while corresponding d30Sidiat are primarily influenced by changes in Si supply to surface waters. Our data indicate enhanced glacial to mid Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) NE Pacific surface water stratification, generally limiting the Si supply to surface waters. However, we suggest that an increase in Si supply during early HS1, when surface waters were still stratified, is linked to increased North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. The coincidence between fresh surface waters during HS1 and enhanced ice-rafted debris sedimentation in the North Atlantic indicates a close link between CIS and Laurentide Ice Sheet dynamics and a dominant atmospheric control on CIS deglaciation. The Bølling/Allerød (B/A) is characterized by destratification in the subarctic Pacific and an increased supply of saline, Si-rich waters to surface waters. This change toward increased convection occurred prior to the Bølling warming and is likely triggered by a switch to sea ice-free conditions during late HS1. Our results furthermore indicate a decreased efficiency of the biological pump during late HS1 and the B/A (possibly also the Younger Dryas), suggesting that the subarctic Pacific has then been a source region of atmospheric CO2.
Resumo:
A 6200 year old peat sequence, cored in a volcanic crater on the sub-Antarctic Ile de la Possession (Iles Crozet), has been investigated, based on a multi-proxy approach. The methods applied are macrobotanical (mosses, seeds and fruits) and diatom analyses, complemented by geochemical (Rock-Eval6) and rock magnetic measurements. The chronology of the core is based on 5 radiocarbon dates. When combining all the proxy data the following changes could be inferred. From the onset of the peat formation (6200 cal yr BP) until ca. 5550 cal yr BP, biological production was high and climatic conditions must have been relatively warm. At ca. 5550 cal yr BP a shift to low biological production occurred, lasting until ca. 4600 cal yr BP. During this period the organic matter is well preserved, pointing to a cold and/or wet environment. At ca. 4600 cal yr BP, biological production increased again. From ca. 4600 cal yr BP until ca. 4100 cal yr BP a 'hollow and hummock' micro topography developed at the peat surface, resulting in the presence of a mixture of wetter and drier species in the macrobotanical record. After ca. 4100 cal yr BP, the wet species disappear and a generally drier, acidic bog came into existence. A major shift in all the proxy data is observed at ca. 2800 cal yr BP, pointing to wetter and especially windier climatic conditions on the island probably caused by an intensification and/or latitudinal shift of the southern westerly belt. Caused by a stronger wind regime, erosion of the peat surface occurred at that time and a lake was formed in the peat deposits of the crater, which is still present today.
Resumo:
Three ice type regimes at Ice Station Belgica (ISB), during the 2007 International Polar Year SIMBA (Sea Ice Mass Balance in Antarctica) expedition, were characterized and assessed for elevation, snow depth, ice freeboard and thickness. Analyses of the probability distribution functions showed great potential for satellite-based altimetry for estimating ice thickness. In question is the required altimeter sampling density for reasonably accurate estimation of snow surface elevation given inherent spatial averaging. This study assesses an effort to determine the number of laser altimeter 'hits' of the ISB floe, as a representative Antarctic floe of mixed first- and multi-year ice types, for the purpose of statistically recreating the in situ-determined ice-thickness and snow depth distribution based on the fractional coverage of each ice type. Estimates of the fractional coverage and spatial distribution of the ice types, referred to as ice 'towns', for the 5 km**2 floe were assessed by in situ mapping and photo-visual documentation. Simulated ICESat altimeter tracks, with spot size ~70 m and spacing ~170 m, sampled the floe's towns, generating a buoyancy-derived ice thickness distribution. 115 altimeter hits were required to statistically recreate the regional thickness mean and distribution for a three-town assemblage of mixed first- and multi-year ice, and 85 hits for a two-town assemblage of first-year ice only: equivalent to 19.5 and 14.5 km respectively of continuous altimeter track over a floe region of similar structure. Results have significant implications toward model development of sea-ice sampling performance of the ICESat laser altimeter record as well as maximizing sampling characteristics of satellite/airborne laser and radar altimetry missions for sea-ice thickness.
Resumo:
The Australian-Indonesian monsoon has a governing influence on the agricultural practices and livelihood in the highly populated islands of Indonesia. However, little is known about the factors that have influenced past monsoon activity in southern Indonesia. Here, we present a ~6000 years high-resolution record of Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) rainfall variations based on bulk sediment element analysis in a sediment archive retrieved offshore northwest Sumba Island (Indonesia). The record suggests lower riverine detrital supply and hence weaker AISM rainfall between 6000 yr BP and ~3000 yr BP compared to the Late Holocene. We find a distinct shift in terrigenous sediment supply at around 2800 yr BP indicating a reorganization of the AISM from a drier Mid Holocene to a wetter Late Holocene in southern Indonesia. The abrupt increase in rainfall at around 2800 yr BP coincides with a grand solar minimum. An increase in southern Indonesian rainfall in response to a solar minimum is consistent with climate model simulations that provide a possible explanation of the underlying mechanism responsible for the monsoonal shift. We conclude that variations in solar activity play a significant role in monsoonal rainfall variability at multi-decadal and longer timescales. The combined effect of orbital and solar forcing explains important details in the temporal evolution of AISM rainfall during the last 6000 years. By contrast, we find neither evidence for volcanic forcing of AISM variability nor for a control by long-term variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).