Model - data comparison of western African rainfall evolutions during the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka)

This dataset characterizes the evolution of western African precipitation indicated by marine sediment geochemical records in comparison to transient simulations using CCSM3 global climate model throughout the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka). It contains (1) defined tie-points (age models), newly published stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera and Al/Si log-ratios of eight marine sediment cores from the western African margin and (2) annual and seasonal rainfall anomalies (relative to pre-industrial values) for six characteristic latitudinal bands in western Africa simulated by CCSM3 (two transient simulations: one non-accelerated and one accelerated experiment).

Planktonic foraminifera record and SST reconstruction for the last 130 ka in the Western South Atlantic

This work reconstructs Late Quaternary paleoceanographic changes in the western South Atlantic Ocean based on sedimentary core GL-77, recovered from the lower continental slope in the Campos basin, offshore SE Brazil. The studied interval comprises the last 130 ka. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and paleoproductivity were estimated using the total planktonic foraminiferal fauna and oxygen isotope analyses. The age model was based on the oxygen isotope record, biostratigraphic datums and AMS 14C dating. It was observed that the Pleistocene/Holocene transition occurs within Globorotalia menardii Biozone Y, and is not coeval with the base of Biozone Z. The range between summer and winter SST estimates is larger during the glacial period compared to interglacials. Three peaks of low SST around 70, 50 - 45 and 20 ka coincided with periods of enhanced SE trade winds. Despite faunal differences between the last interglacial (MIS 5e) and the Holocene, our SST estimates suggest that SSTs did not differ significantly between these intervals.

Dead Sea lake level for the last 260 ka

The rain regime of the Levant during the late Quaternary was controlled primarily by Mediterranean cyclonic systems associated with North Atlantic climate shifts. Lake levels in the Dead Sea basin have been robust recorders of the regional hydrology and generally indicate highstand (wet) conditions throughout glacial intervals and lowstands (dry) during interglacials. However, sporadic deposition of travertines and speleothems occurred in the Negev Desert and Arava Valley during past interglacials, suggesting intrusions of humidity from southern sources probably in association with enhanced activity of mid-latitude Red Sea synoptic troughs and/or low-latitude tropical plumes. The southerly incursions of wetness were superimposed on the long-term interglacial Levantine arid conditions, as reflected by the current prevailing hyperaridity, and could have had an important impact on human migra- tion through the Red Sea-Dead Sea corridor.

Results of modelled Arctic river discharge trends since 7 ka BP

The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2 % increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5 % for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gases indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6 %. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5 %, the North American discharges by up to 8.4 %. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) of sediment core SO188_342 from the Northern Bay of Bengal for the last 18 ka

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a major global climatic phenomenon. Long-term precipitation proxy records of the ISM, however, are often fragmented and discontinuous, impeding an estimation of the magnitude of precipitation variability from the Last Glacial to the present. To improve our understanding of past ISM variability, we provide a continuous reconstructed record of precipitation and continental vegetation changes from the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna catchment and the Indo-Burman ranges over the last 18,000 years (18 ka). The records derive from a marine sediment core from the northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB), and are complemented by numerical model results of spatial moisture transport and precipitation distribution over the Bengal region. The isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) are compared to results from an isotope-enabled general atmospheric circulation model (IsoCAM) for selected time slices (pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and Heinrich Stadial 1). Comparison of proxy and model results indicate that past changes in the dD of precipitation and plant waxes were mainly driven by the amount effect, and strongly influenced by ISM rainfall. Maximum precipitation is detected for the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO; 10.5-6 ka BP), whereas minimum precipitation occurred during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16.9-15.4 ka BP). The IsoCAM model results support the hypothesis of a constant moisture source (i.e. the NBoB) throughout the study period. Relative to the pre-industrial period the model reconstructions show 20% more rain during the mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) and 20% less rain during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), respectively. A shift from C4-plant dominated ecosystems during the glacial to subsequent C3/C4-mixed ones during the interglacial took place. Vegetation changes were predominantly driven by precipitation variability, as evidenced by the significant correlation between the dD and d13C alkane records. When compared to other records across the ISM domain, precipitation and vegetation changes inferred from our records and the numerical model results provide evidence for a coherent regional variability of the ISM from the Last Glacial to the present.

Planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope and trace metal data ODP Hole 172-1056A, 46-54 ka BP

Salinity increase in the subtropical gyre system may have pre-conditioned the North Atlantic Ocean for a rapid return to stronger overturning circulation and high-latitude warming following meltwater events during the Last Glacial period. Here we investigate the Gulf Stream - subtropical gyre system properties over Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles 14 to 12, including Heinrich ice-rafting event 5. During the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum a positive gradient in surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera d18O (Globigerinoides ruber) can be observed between the Gulf Stream and subtropical gyre, due to decreasing temperature, increasing salinity, and a change from summer to year-round occurrence of G. ruber. We assess whether this gradient was a common feature during stadial-interstadial climate oscillations of Marine Isotope Stage 3, by comparing existing G. ruber d18O from ODP Site 1060 (subtropical gyre location) and new data from ODP Site 1056 (Gulf Stream location) between 54 and 46 ka. Our results suggest that this gradient was largely absent during the period studied. During the major warm DO interstadials 14 and 12 we infer a more zonal and wider Gulf Stream, influencing both ODP Sites 1056 and 1060. A Gulf Stream presence during these major interstadials is also suggested by the large vertical d18O gradient between shallow dwelling planktonic foraminifera species, especially G. ruber, and the deep dwelling species Globorotalia inflata at site 1056, which we associate with strong summer stratification and Gulf Stream presence. A major reduction in this vertical d18O gradient from 51 ka until the end of Heinrich event 5 at 48.5 ka suggests site 1056 was situated within the subtropical gyre in this mainly cold period, from which we infer a migration of the Gulf Stream to a position nearer to the continental shelf, indicative of a narrower Gulf Stream with possibly reduced transport.