Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Offspring sensitivity to ocean acidification changes seasonally in a coastal marine fish

Experimental assessments of species vulnerabilities to ocean acidification are rapidly increasing in number, yet the potential for short- and long-term adaptation to high CO2 by contemporary marine organisms remains poorly understood. We used a novel experimental approach that combined bi-weekly sampling of a wild, spawning fish population (Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia) with standardized offspring CO2 exposure experiments and parallel pH monitoring of a coastal ecosystem. We assessed whether offspring produced at different times of the spawning season (April to July) would be similarly susceptible to elevated (1100 µatm, pHNIST = 7.77) and high CO2 levels (2300 µatm, pHNIST = 7.47). Early in the season (April), high CO2 levels significantly (p < 0.05) reduced fish survival by 54% (2012) and 33% (2013) and reduced 1 to 10 d post-hatch growth by 17% relative to ambient conditions. However, offspring from parents collected later in the season became increasingly CO2-tolerant until, by mid-May, offspring survival was equally high at all CO2 levels. This interannually consistent plasticity coincided with the rapid annual pH decline in the species' spawning habitat (mean pH: 1 April/31 May = 8.05/7.67). It suggests that parents can condition their offspring to seasonally acidifying environments, either via changes in maternal provisioning and/or epigenetic transgenerational plasticity (TGP). TGP to increasing CO2 has been shown in the laboratory but never before in a wild population. Our novel findings of direct CO2-related survival reductions in wild fish offspring and seasonally plastic responses imply that realistic assessments of species CO2-sensitivities must control for parental environments that are seasonally variable in coastal habitats.

Magnetic susceptibility and electric conductivity of marine surficial sediments by benthic electromagnetic profiling

Distribution, accumulation and diagenesis of surficial sediments in coastal and continental shelf systems follow complex chains of localized processes and form deposits of great spatial variability. Given the environmental and economic relevance of ocean margins, there is growing need for innovative geophysical exploration methods to characterize seafloor sediments by more than acoustic properties. A newly conceptualized benthic profiling and data processing approach based on controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) imaging permits to coevally quantify the magnetic susceptibility and the electric conductivity of shallow marine deposits. The two physical properties differ fundamentally insofar as magnetic susceptibility mostly assesses solid particle characteristics such as terrigenous or iron mineral content, redox state and contamination level, while electric conductivity primarily relates to the fluid-filled pore space and detects salinity, porosity and grain-size variations. We develop and validate a layered half-space inversion algorithm for submarine multifrequency CSEM with concentric sensor configuration. Guided by results of modeling, we modified a commercial land CSEM sensor for submarine application, which was mounted into a nonconductive and nonmagnetic bottom-towed sled. This benthic EM profiler Neridis II achieves 25 soundings/second at 3-4 knots over continuous profiles of up to hundred kilometers. Magnetic susceptibility is determined from the 75 Hz in-phase response (90% signal originates from the top 50 cm), while electric conductivity is derived from the 5 kHz out-of-phase (quadrature) component (90% signal from the top 92 cm). Exemplary survey data from the north-west Iberian margin underline the excellent sensitivity, functionality and robustness of the system in littoral (~0-50 m) and neritic (~50-300 m) environments. Susceptibility vs. porosity cross-plots successfully identify known lithofacies units and their transitions. All presently available data indicate an eminent potential of CSEM profiling for assessing the complex distribution of shallow marine surficial sediments and for revealing climatic, hydrodynamic, diagenetic and anthropogenic factors governing their formation.

Near-coastal circum-Antarctic iceberg size distributions determined from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The Radarsat-1 Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) compiled a mosaic of Antarctica and the adjacent ocean zone from more than 3000 high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired in September and October 1997. The mosaic with a pixel size of 100 m was used to determine iceberg size distributions around Antarctica, combining an automated detection with a visual control of all icebergs larger than 5 km**2 and correction of recognized false detections. For icebergs below 5 km**2 in size, the numbers of false detections and accuracies of size retrievals were analyzed for three test sites. Nearly 7000 icebergs with horizontal areas between 0.3 and 4717.7 km**2 were identified in a near-coastal zone of varying width between 20 and 300 km. The spatial distributions of icebergs around Antarctica were calculated for zonal segments of 20° angular width and related to the types of the calving fronts in the respective section. Results reveal that regional variations of the size distributions cannot be neglected. The highest ice mass accumulations were found at positions of giant icebergs (> 18.5 km) but also in front of ice shelves from which larger numbers of smaller icebergs calve almost continuously. Although the coastal oceanic zone covered by RAMP is too narrow compared to the spatial coverage needed for oceanographic research, this study nevertheless demonstrates the usefulness of SAR images for iceberg research and the need for repeated data acquisitions extending ocean-wards over distances of 500 km and more from the coast to monitor iceberg melt and disintegration and the related freshwater input into the ocean.

Composite of coastal seagrass meadows in Queensland, Australia - November 1984 to June 2010

Approximately 18,400 km**2 of seagrass habitat has been mapped within the coastal waters (<15 m) of Queensland (Australia) between November 1984 and June 2010. The total seagrass meadow distribution was calculated by merging maps from 115 separate mapping surveys (varying locations and dates). Due to tropical seagrass dynamism, meadow distribution can change seasonally and between years, and as a consequence, the composite represents the maximum area of seabed where seagrass has been observed/recorded. Mapping survey methodologies followed standardised global seagrass research methods (McKenzie et al. 2001) where the presence of seagrass was determined from in situ visual assessment of the seabed by either divers or drop cameras at GPS marked positions. Seagrass meadow boundaries were determined based on the positions of survey sites and the presence of seagrass, coupled with depth contours and remote sensing (e.g. aerial photography) where available. The merged meadow boundary accuracy was dependent on the original survey maps and varied from 10-100 m. The resulting composite seagrass distribution was saved as an ArcMap polygon shapefile, and projected to Geocentric Datum of Australia GDA94.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.

Seawater acidification by CO2 in a coastal lagoon environment: Effects on life history traits of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis

The carbonate chemistry of seawater from the Ria Formosa lagoon was experimentally manipulated, by diffusing pure CO2, to attain two reduced pH levels, by -0.3 and -0.6 pH units, relative to unmanipulated seawater. After 84 days of exposure, no differences were detected in terms of growth (somatic or shell) or mortality of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis. The naturally elevated total alkalinity of the seawater (= 3550 µmol/kg) prevented under-saturation of CaCO3, even under pCO2 values exceeding 4000 µatm, attenuating the detrimental effects on the carbonate supply-side. Even so, variations in shell weight showed that net calcification was reduced under elevated CO2 and reduced pH, although the magnitude and significance of this effect varied among size-classes. Most of the loss of shell material probably occurred as post-deposition dissolution in the internal aragonitic nacre layer. Our results show that, even when reared under extreme levels of CO2-induced acidification, juvenile M. galloprovincialis can continue to calcify and grow in this coastal lagoon environment. The complex responses of bivalves to ocean acidification suggest a large degree of interspecific and intraspecific variability in their sensitivity to this type of perturbation. Further research is needed to assess the generality of these patterns and to disentangle the relative contributions of acclimation to local variations in seawater chemistry and genetic adaptation.

The effects of growth phase and salinity on the hydrogen isotopic composition of alkenones produced by coastal haptophyte algae

The isotopic fractionation of hydrogen during the biosynthesis of alkenones produced by marine haptophyte algae has been shown to depend on salinity and, as such, the hydrogen isotopic composition of alkenones is emerging as a palaeosalinity proxy. The relationship between fractionation and salinity has previously only been determined during exponential growth, whilst it is not yet known in which growth phases natural haptophyte populations predominantly exist. We have therefore determined the relationship between the fractionation factor, alpha alkenones-water, and salinity for C37 alkenones produced in different growth phases of batch cultures of the major alkenone-producing coastal haptophytes Isochrysis galbana (strain CCMP 1323) and Chrysotila lamellosa (strain CCMP 1307) over a range in salinity from ca. 10 to ca. 35. alpha alkenones-water was similar in both species, ranging over 0.841-0.900 for I. galbana and 0.838-0.865 for C. lamellosa. A strong (0.85 <= R**2 <= 0.97; p < 0.0001) relationship between salinity and fractionation factor was observed in both species at all growth phases investigated. This suggests that alkenone dD has the potential to be used as a salinity proxy in coastal areas where haptophyte communities are dominated by these coastal species. However, there was a marked difference in the sensitivity of alpha alkenones-water to salinity between different growth phases: in the exponential growth phase of I. galbana, alpha alkenones-water increased by 0.0019 per salinity unit (S 1), but was less sensitive at 0.0010 S 1 and 0.0008 S 1 during the stationary and decline phases, respectively. Similarly, in C. lamellosa alpha alkenones-water increased by 0.0010 S 1 in the early stationary phase and by 0.0008 S 1 during the late stationary phase. Assuming the shift in sensitivity of alpha alkenones-water to salinity observed at the end of exponential growth in I. galbana is similar in other alkenone-producing species, the predominant growth phase of natural populations of haptophytes will affect the sensitivity of the alkenone salinity proxy. The proxy is likely to be most sensitive to salinity when alkenones are produced in a state similar to exponential growth.

Nighttime dissolution in a temperate coastal ocean ecosystem increases under acidification

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing ocean acidification, lowering seawater aragonite (CaCO3) saturation state (Omega arag), with potentially substantial impacts on marine ecosystems over the 21st Century. Calcifying organisms have exhibited reduced calcification under lower saturation state conditions in aquaria. However, the in situ sensitivity of calcifying ecosystems to future ocean acidification remains unknown. Here we assess the community level sensitivity of calcification to local CO2-induced acidification caused by natural respiration in an unperturbed, biodiverse, temperate intertidal ecosystem. We find that on hourly timescales nighttime community calcification is strongly influenced by Omega arag, with greater net calcium carbonate dissolution under more acidic conditions. Daytime calcification however, is not detectably affected by Omega arag. If the short-term sensitivity of community calcification to Omega arag is representative of the long-term sensitivity to ocean acidification, nighttime dissolution in these intertidal ecosystems could more than double by 2050, with significant ecological and economic consequences.