12 resultados para Aalen linear regression model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for one sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2013 This river is a tributary to the Watson River discharging into Kangerlussuaq Fjord by the town of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure are also provided. Compared to version 1.0 of the dataset, this dataset used a total of 36 in situ discharge observations collected between 2008 and 2012 to construct the rating curve. Furthermore, data of Station AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 have been removed from version 2.0 because these values were likely caused by backflow when a jokulhlaup from a large glacier dammed lake caused increased water levels in the downstreams lake. Thus, data measured at AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 are not representative for the AK-004 catchment.
Resumo:
Pressing scientific questions concerning the Greenland ice sheet's climatic sensitivity, hydrology, and contributions to current and future sea level rise require hydrological datasets to resolve. While direct observations of ice sheet meltwater losses can be obtained in terrestrial rivers draining the ice sheet and from lake levels, few such datasets exist. We present a new dataset of meltwater river discharge for the vicinity of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for three sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua (Watson) River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2010. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure, and lake water depth and temperature are also provided. Discharge data were measured at sites with near-ideal properties for such data collection. Regardless, high water bedload and turbulent flow introduce considerable uncertainty. These were constrained and quantified using statistical techniques, thereby providing a high quality dataset from this important site. The greatest data uncertainties are associated with streambed elevation change and measurements. Large portions of stream channels deepened according to statistical tests, but poor precision of streambed depth measurements also added uncertainty. Quality checked data are freely available for scientific use as supplementary online material.
Resumo:
Euphausiids constitute major biomass component in shelf ecosystems and play a fundamental role in the rapid vertical transport of carbon from the ocean surface to the deeper layers during their daily vertical migration (DVM). DVM depth and migration patterns depend on oceanographic conditions with respect to temperature, light and oxygen availability at depth, factors that are highly dependent on season in most marine regions. Changes in the abiotic conditions also shape Euphausiid metabolism including aerobic and anaerobic energy production. Here we introduce a global krill respiration model which includes the effect of latitude (LAT), the day of the year of interest (DoY), and the number of daylight hours on the day of interest (DLh), in addition to the basal variables that determine ectothermal oxygen consumption (temperature, body mass and depth) in the ANN model (Artificial Neural Networks). The newly implemented parameters link space and time in terms of season and photoperiod to krill respiration. The ANN model showed a better fit (r**2=0.780) when DLh and LAT were included, indicating a decrease in respiration with increasing LAT and decreasing DLh. We therefore propose DLh as a potential variable to consider when building physiological models for both hemispheres. We also tested for seasonality the standard respiration rate of the most common species that were investigated until now in a large range of DLh and DoY with Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or General Additive model (GAM). GAM successfully integrated DLh (r**2= 0.563) and DoY (r**2= 0.572) effects on respiration rates of the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, yielding the minimum metabolic activity in mid-June and the maximum at the end of December. Neither the MLR nor the GAM approach worked for the North Pacific krill Euphausia pacifica, and MLR for the North Atlantic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica remained inconclusive because of insufficient seasonal data coverage. We strongly encourage comparative respiration measurements of worldwide Euphausiid key species at different seasons to improve accuracy in ecosystem modelling.
Resumo:
Sediment core logs from six sediment cores in the Labrador Sea show millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial by recording all Heinrich events and several major Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. The same millennial-scale climate change is documented for surface-water d18O records of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (left coiled); hence the surface-water d18O record can be derived from sediment core logging by means of multiple linear regression, providing a paleoclimate proxy record at very high temporal resolution (70 yrs). For the Labrador Sea, sediment core logs contain important information about deep-water current velocities and also reflect the variable input of IRD from different sources as inferred from grain-size analysis, benthic d18O, the relation of density and p-wave velocity, and magnetic susceptibility. For the last glacial, faster deep-water currents which correspond to highs in sediment physical properties, occurred during iceberg discharge and lasted for a several centuries to a few millennia. Those enhanced currents might have contributed to increased production of intermediate waters during times of reduced production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Hudson Strait might have acted as a major supplier of detrital carbonate only during lowered sea level (greater ice extent). During coldest atmospheric temperatures over Greenland, deep-water currents increased during iceberg discharge in the Labrador Sea, then surface water freshened shortly after, while the abrupt atmospheric temperature rise happened after a larger time lag of >=1 kyr. The correlation implies a strong link and common forcing for atmosphere, sea surface, and deep water during the last glacial at millennial time scales but decoupling at orbital time scales.
Resumo:
The variability in size and shape of shells of the polar planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma have been quantified in 33 recent surface sediment samples throughout the northern Atlantic Ocean and correlated with the properties of the ambient surface waters. The aim of the study was to determine whether any of the morphological features could be used to reconstruct sea surface properties in the polar realm of the North Atlantic, where most paleotemperature proxies appear to fail. The analyses revealed that shell morphology is only weakly controlled by habitat properties, whereas shell size showed a strong correlation with sea surface temperature. The regression of mean shell size on sea surface temperature revealed the presence of two trends among the sinistrally coiled shells: a continuous increase in shell size with decreasing SST in sediments deposited under polar water masses and a continuous increase in shell size with increasing SST in samples from transitional waters. The second trend mirrors the trend observed for dextrally coiled shells, which are frequent in the same samples and signal the presence of N. incompta. The identical mean shell size trends among the sinistral and dextral specimens in the temperate samples confirms the results of earlier genetic studies which indicated the existence of a small but distinct proportion of opposite coiling in N. incompta, to which the sinistral shells in the temperate samples could be attributed. The linear correlation between mean shell size and sea surface temperature in the polar domain (summer SST < 9 °C) has been used to develop an empirical formula for the reconstruction of past sea surface temperatures from shell sizes in fossil samples. The standard error of the residuals of the linear regression is 2.36 °C (1 sigma), which implies a much larger error than for most paleothermometers, but enough precision to allow resolution between results by individual paleothermometers in the polar domain. The resulting regression model has been applied on two sediment cores spanning the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. The results from core PS1906-1 are consistent with ice-free conditions during the LGM in the Norwegian Sea. The SST estimates for the LGM inferred from N. pachyderma shell size are similar or slightly higher than those for the latest Holocene. The results do not indicate anomalously high SST during the glacial and the LGM reconstructions thus appear more consistent with the results from foraminiferal transfer functions and geochemical proxies. Both sediment cores show the highest reconstructed SST during the early Holocene insolation optimum.
Resumo:
Aim: To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes. Location: 23 long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe. Methods: Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship. Results: The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern. Main conclusions: Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods derive from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.
Resumo:
Two sediment cores from the West Spitsbergen area, Euro-Arctic margin, MD99-2304 and MD99-2305, have been investigated for paleoceanographic proxies, including benthic and planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes and ice rafted debris. Core MD99-2304 is located on the upper continental margin, reflecting variations in the influx of Atlantic Water in the West Spitsbergen Current. Core MD99-2305 is located in Van Mijenfjord, picturing variations in tidewater glacier activity as well as fjord-ocean circulation changes. Surface water warmer than today, was present on the margin as soon as the Van Mijenfjord was deglaciated by 11,200 cal. years BP. Relatively warm water invaded the fjord bottom almost immediately after the deglaciation. A relatively warm early Holocene was followed by an abrupt cooling at 8800 cal. years BP on the continental margin. Another cooling in the fjord record, 8000-4000 cal. years BP, is documented by an increase in ice rafted debris and an increase in benthic foraminiferal delta18O. The IRD-record indicates that central Spitsbergen never was completely deglaciated during the Holocene. Relatively cool and stable conditions similar to the present were established about 4000 cal. years BP.
Resumo:
Long chain 1,13- and 1,15-alkyl diols form the base of a number of recently proposed proxies used for climate reconstruction. However, the sources of these lipids and environmental controls on their distribution are still poorly constrained. We have analyzed the long chain alkyl diol (LCD) composition of cultures of ten eustigmatophyte species, with three species from different families grown at various temperatures, to identify the effect of species composition and growth temperature on the LCD distribution. The results were compared with the LCD distribution of sixty-two lake surface sediments, and with previously reported LCD distributions from marine environments. The different families within the Eustigmatophyceae show distinct LCD patterns, with the freshwater family Eustigmataceae most closely resembling LCD distributions in both marine and lake environments. Unlike the other two eustigmatophyte families analyzed (Monodopsidaceae and Goniochloridaceae), C28 and C30 1,13-alkyl diols and C30 and C32 1,15-alkyl diols are all relatively abundant in the family Eustigmataceae, while the mono-unsaturated C32 1,15-alkyl diol was below detection limit. In contrast to the marine environment, LCD distributions in lakes did not show a clear relationship with temperature. The Long chain Diol Index (LDI), a proxy previously proposed for sea surface temperature reconstruction, showed a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.33) with mean annual air temperature used as an approximation for annual mean surface temperature of the lakes. A much-improved correlation (R2 = 0.74, p-value<0.001) was observed applying a multiple linear regression analysis between LCD distributions and lake temperatures reconstructed using branched tetraether lipid distributions. The obtained regression model provides good estimates of temperatures for cultures of the family Eustigmataceae, suggesting that algae belonging to this family have an important role as a source for LCDs in lacustrine environments, or, alternatively, that the main sources of LCDs are similarly affected by temperature as the Eustigmataceae. The results suggest that LCDs may have the potential to be applicable as a palaeotemperature proxy for lacustrine environments, although further calibration work is still required.
Resumo:
Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.
Resumo:
Major elements, S, F, Cl concentrations and relative proportions of S6+ to total S were analyzed with electron microprobe in sideromelane glass shards from Pleistocene volcaniclastic sediments drilled during ODP Leg 157. Glasses are moderately to strongly evolved and represent a spectrum from alkali basalt, basanite and nephelinite through hawaiite, mugearite and tephrite to phonolitic tephrite. Measured S6+/SumS (0.03±0.98) and calculated Fe2+/Fe3+ (2.5±5.8) ratios in the melt yield preeruptive redox conditions ranging from NNO-1.4 to NNO+2.1. The morphology of the glass shards, variations of S and Cl concentrations (0.010±0.127 wt% S, 0.018±0.129 wt% Cl), calculated preeruptive temperatures (1030±1200 °C) and oxygen fugacities suggest that glasses deposited even within the same ash layers have diverse origin and may have resulted from both submarine and subaerial eruptions. Most vesicle-free glasses are characterized by high concentrations of S and represent undegassed or slightly degassed submarine lavas, whereas vesiculated glasses with low concentrations of S and Cl are strongly degassed and can be ascribed to the eruptions in shallow water or on land. Sideromelane glass shards at Sites 953 are thought to have resulted from submarine eruptions northeast of Gran Canaria, glasses at Site 954 represent mostly volcaniclastic material of shallow water submarine and subaerial eruptions on Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and glasses deposited at Site 956 resulted from submarine or explosive eruptions on Tenerife.
Resumo:
A global sea surface temperature calibration based on the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa in Holocene deep-sea sediments is presented. There is evidence suggesting that absolute sea surface temperature for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes in sediment samples, with a standard error comparable to temperature estimates derived from other temperature proxies such as planktic foraminifera transfer functions. A total of 110 Holocene sediment samples were selected from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans covering a mean sea surface temperature gradient from 13.6° to 29.3°C. Standard multiple linear regression analyses were applied to this data set, linking the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes to sea surface temperature. The best model revealed an r**2 of 0.83 with a standard residual error of 1.78°C for the estimation of mean sea surface temperature. This new proxy provides a unique opportunity for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures with a very small amount of sample material due to the minute size of coccoliths, permitting examination of thinly laminated sediments (e.g., a pinhead of material from laminated sediments for the reconstruction of annual sea surface temperature variations). Such fine-scale resolution is currently not possible with any other proxy. Application of this new paleotemperature proxy may allow new paleoenvironmental interpretations in the late Quaternary period and discrepancies between the different currently used paleotemperature proxies might be resolved.
Resumo:
The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on phytoplankton community characteristics such as photoacclimation, overall biomass and taxonomic composition. In particular, pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) techniques applied to filtered water samples. This method, as well as other laboratory analyses, is time consuming and therefore limits the number of samples that can be processed in a given time. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to remote-sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyperspectral underwater radiometry and from multispectral satellite data (using the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer - MERIS - Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011, doi:10.1364/OE.19.009783) measured in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently we developed multiple linear regression models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multispectral resolution is chosen (i.e., eight bands, similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. As a demonstration of the utility of the approach, the fitted model based on satellite reflectance data as input was applied to 1 month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole eastern tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., < 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photophysiology.