On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximation of quasilinear elliptic boundary value problems II: Strongly monotone quasi-Newtonian flows

In this article, we develop the a priori and a posteriori error analysis of hp-version interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for strongly monotone quasi-Newtonian fluid flows in a bounded Lipschitz domain Ω ⊂ ℝd, d = 2, 3. In the latter case, computable upper and lower bounds on the error are derived in terms of a natural energy norm, which are explicit in the local mesh size and local polynomial degree of the approximating finite element method. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed a posteriori error indicators within an automatic hp-adaptive refinement algorithm.

Biocompatibility assessment of the first generation PediaFlow pediatric ventricular assist device

The PediaFlow pediatric ventricular assist device is a miniature magnetically levitated mixed flow pump under development for circulatory support of newborns and infants (3-15 kg) with a targeted flow range of 0.3-1.5 L/min. The first generation design of the PediaFlow (PF1) was manufactured with a weight of approximately 100 g, priming volume less than 2 mL, length of 51 mm, outer diameter of 28 mm, and with 5-mm blood ports. PF1 was evaluated in an in vitro flow loop for 6 h and implanted in ovines for three chronic experiments of 6, 17, and 10 days. In the in vitro test, normalized index of hemolysis was 0.0087 ± 0.0024 g/100L. Hemodynamic performance and blood biocompatibility of PF1 were characterized in vivo by measurements of plasma free hemoglobin, plasma fibrinogen, total plasma protein, and with novel flow cytometric assays to quantify circulating activated ovine platelets. The mean plasma free hemoglobin values for the three chronic studies were 4.6 ± 2.7, 13.3 ± 7.9, and 8.8 ± 3.3 mg/dL, respectively. Platelet activation was low for portions of several studies but consistently rose along with observed animal and pump complications. The PF1 prototype generated promising results in terms of low hemolysis and platelet activation in the absence of complications. Hemodynamic results validated the magnetic bearing design and provided the platform for design iterations to meet the objective of providing circulatory support for young children with exceptional biocompatibility.

Comparison of three strip-type tests and two laboratory methods for salivary buffering analysis

This study evaluated the correlation between three strip-type, colorimetric tests and two laboratory methods with respect to the analysis of salivary buffering. The strip-type tests were saliva-check buffer, Dentobuff strip and CRT(®) Buffer test. The laboratory methods included Ericsson's laboratory method and a monotone acid/base titration to create a reference scale for the salivary titratable acidity. Additionally, defined buffer solutions were prepared and tested to simulate the carbonate, phosphate and protein buffer systems of saliva. The correlation between the methods was analysed by the Spearman's rank test. Disagreement was detected between buffering capacity values obtained with three strip-type tests that was more pronounced in case of saliva samples with medium and low buffering capacities. All strip-type tests were able to assign the hydrogencarbonate, di-hydrogenphosphate and 0.1% protein buffer solutions to the correct buffer categories. However, at 0.6% total protein concentrations, none of the test systems worked accurately. Improvements are necessary for strip-type tests because of certain disagreement with the Ericsson's laboratory method and dependence on the protein content of saliva.

Stress free configuration of the human eye

Numerical simulations of eye globes often rely on topographies that have been measured in vivo using devices such as the Pentacam or OCT. The topographies, which represent the form of the already stressed eye under the existing intraocular pressure, introduce approximations in the analysis. The accuracy of the simulations could be improved if either the stress state of the eye under the effect of intraocular pressure is determined, or the stress-free form of the eye estimated prior to conducting the analysis. This study reviews earlier attempts to address this problem and assesses the performance of an iterative technique proposed by Pandolfi and Holzapfel [1], which is both simple to implement and promises high accuracy in estimating the eye's stress-free form. A parametric study has been conducted and demonstrated reliance of the error level on the level of flexibility of the eye model, especially in the cornea region. However, in all cases considered 3-4 analysis iterations were sufficient to produce a stress-free form with average errors in node location <10(-6)mm and a maximal error <10(-4)mm. This error level, which is similar to what has been achieved with other methods and orders of magnitude lower than the accuracy of current clinical topography systems, justifies the use of the technique as a pre-processing step in ocular numerical simulations.

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

Copula calibration

We propose notions of calibration for probabilistic forecasts of general multivariate quantities. Probabilistic copula calibration is a natural analogue of probabilistic calibration in the univariate setting. It can be assessed empirically by checking for the uniformity of the copula probability integral transform (CopPIT), which is invariant under coordinate permutations and coordinatewise strictly monotone transformations of the predictive distribution and the outcome. The CopPIT histogram can be interpreted as a generalization and variant of the multivariate rank histogram, which has been used to check the calibration of ensemble forecasts. Climatological copula calibration is an analogue of marginal calibration in the univariate setting. Methods and tools are illustrated in a simulation study and applied to compare raw numerical model and statistically postprocessed ensemble forecasts of bivariate wind vectors.

International standards for programmes of training in intensive care medicine in Europe.

PURPOSE To develop internationally harmonised standards for programmes of training in intensive care medicine (ICM). METHODS Standards were developed by using consensus techniques. A nine-member nominal group of European intensive care experts developed a preliminary set of standards. These were revised and refined through a modified Delphi process involving 28 European national coordinators representing national training organisations using a combination of moderated discussion meetings, email, and a Web-based tool for determining the level of agreement with each proposed standard, and whether the standard could be achieved in the respondent's country. RESULTS The nominal group developed an initial set of 52 possible standards which underwent four iterations to achieve maximal consensus. All national coordinators approved a final set of 29 standards in four domains: training centres, training programmes, selection of trainees, and trainers' profiles. Only three standards were considered immediately achievable by all countries, demonstrating a willingness to aspire to quality rather than merely setting a minimum level. Nine proposed standards which did not achieve full consensus were identified as potential candidates for future review. CONCLUSIONS This preliminary set of clearly defined and agreed standards provides a transparent framework for assuring the quality of training programmes, and a foundation for international harmonisation and quality improvement of training in ICM.

Tagesschläfrigkeit und Fahrverhalten

In industrialisierten Gesellschaften klagen 10–15 % der Bevölkerung über Tagesschläfrigkeit. Neben der Schichtarbeit und der weit verbreiteten, sozial bedingten Schlafinsuffizienz, dürfte auch die zunehmende Zahl von Schlaf-Wachstörungen dazu beitragen. Die Folgen der Schläfrigkeit am Steuer sind Unaufmerksamkeit, „Tunnelblick“ und verlängerte Reaktionszeit. Die Unfälle beim Sekundenschlaf ereignen sich oft bei unverminderter Geschwindigkeit, was zu besonders schweren, und besonders oft zu tödlichen Unfällen führt. In der Schweiz werden zwar gemäß den offiziellen Statistiken lediglich ca. 1.5 % der Verkehrsunfälle durch Einschlafen am Steuer verursacht, was im Vergleich zu einem 10–30 % Anteil in der Fachliteratur massiv unterschätzt erscheint. Die Diskrepanz in den offiziellen statistischen Erhebungen entsteht wohl u. a. dadurch, dass Schläfrigkeit schwer zu erfassen ist. Die Unterschätzung des wahren Problems ist deswegen relevant, weil Gegenmaßnahmen im Straßenbau und die Abklärungen bei fehlbaren Fahrzeuglenkern immer noch zu wenig konsequent verfolgt werden. Zu den Risikofaktoren für schläfrigkeitsbedingte Verkehrsunfälle gehören junges Alter, geringe Fahrerfahrung, männliches Geschlecht, Risikoverhalten, Nachtfahrten, monotone Strecken, lange Fahrdauer, das sozial oder beruflich bedingte Schlafmanko, aber auch Schlaf-Wach-Krankheiten und sedierende Medikamente. Die Risikofaktoren und auch die typischen Merkmale von schläfrigkeitsbedingten Unfällen sind relativ gut bekannt, so dass prophylaktische Gegenmaßnahmen und gezielte Abklärungen von fehlbaren Lenkern möglich wären. Weil jeder Betroffene die Zeichen der Schläfrigkeit rechtzeitig, d. h. vor dem Auftreten eines Sekundenschlafes am Steuer erkennen kann, kommt der Aufklärung aller Verkehrsteilnehmer – und somit auch der Patienten – über das individuelle Risiko und über wirksame Gegenmaßnahmen wie anhalten, Kaffeetrinken und Turboschlaf einschalten, eine ganz besondere Bedeutung zu. Dieses Aufklärungsgespräch soll in der Krankengeschichte unbedingt bei der ersten Konsultation dokumentiert werden, was besonders wichtig ist bei der Verordnung von sedierenden Medikamenten. Bei allen Berufsfahrern mit Tagesschläfrigkeit und bei allen Fahrzeuglenkern, welche bereits einen Unfall erlitten haben, empfehlen wir eine Zuweisung an ein Zentrum für Schlafmedizin, um die Tagesschläfrigkeit zu objektivieren und damit die Compliance des Patienten zu verbessern. Bei uneinsichtigen Patienten hat der Arzt in der Schweiz das Recht, aber nicht die Pflicht, Anzeige bei den Behörden zu erstatten.

Reducing CT radiation dose with iterative reconstruction algorithms: the influence of scan and reconstruction parameters on image quality and CTDIvol

OBJECTIVES In this phantom CT study, we investigated whether images reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) and iterative reconstruction (IR) with reduced tube voltage and current have equivalent quality. We evaluated the effects of different acquisition and reconstruction parameter settings on image quality and radiation doses. Additionally, patient CT studies were evaluated to confirm our phantom results. METHODS Helical and axial 256 multi-slice computed tomography scans of the phantom (Catphan(®)) were performed with varying tube voltages (80-140kV) and currents (30-200mAs). 198 phantom data sets were reconstructed applying FBP and IR with increasing iterations, and soft and sharp kernels. Further, 25 chest and abdomen CT scans, performed with high and low exposure per patient, were reconstructed with IR and FBP. Two independent observers evaluated image quality and radiation doses of both phantom and patient scans. RESULTS In phantom scans, noise reduction was significantly improved using IR with increasing iterations, independent from tissue, scan-mode, tube-voltage, current, and kernel. IR did not affect high-contrast resolution. Low-contrast resolution was also not negatively affected, but improved in scans with doses <5mGy, although object detectability generally decreased with the lowering of exposure. At comparable image quality levels, CTDIvol was reduced by 26-50% using IR. In patients, applying IR vs. FBP resulted in good to excellent image quality, while tube voltage and current settings could be significantly decreased. CONCLUSIONS Our phantom experiments demonstrate that image quality levels of FBP reconstructions can also be achieved at lower tube voltages and tube currents when applying IR. Our findings could be confirmed in patients revealing the potential of IR to significantly reduce CT radiation doses.

Impact of Hybrid Iterative Reconstruction on Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Scores in Comparison to Filtered Back Projection in Native Cardiac CT

PURPOSE To investigate whether the effects of hybrid iterative reconstruction (HIR) on coronary artery calcium (CAC) measurements using the Agatston score lead to changes in assignment of patients to cardiovascular risk groups compared to filtered back projection (FBP). MATERIALS AND METHODS 68 patients (mean age 61.5 years; 48 male; 20 female) underwent prospectively ECG-gated, non-enhanced, cardiac 256-MSCT for coronary calcium scoring. Scanning parameters were as follows: Tube voltage, 120 kV; Mean tube current time-product 63.67 mAs (50 - 150 mAs); collimation, 2 × 128 × 0.625 mm. Images were reconstructed with FBP and with HIR at all levels (L1 to L7). Two independent readers measured Agatston scores of all reconstructions and assigned patients to cardiovascular risk groups. Scores of HIR and FBP reconstructions were correlated (Spearman). Interobserver agreement and variability was assessed with ĸ-statistics and Bland-Altmann-Plots. RESULTS Agatston scores of HIR reconstructions were closely correlated with FBP reconstructions (L1, R = 0.9996; L2, R = 0.9995; L3, R = 0.9991; L4, R = 0.986; L5, R = 0.9986; L6, R = 0.9987; and L7, R = 0.9986). In comparison to FBP, HIR led to reduced Agatston scores between 97 % (L1) and 87.4 % (L7) of the FBP values. Using HIR iterations L1 - L3, all patients were assigned to identical risk groups as after FPB reconstruction. In 5.4 % of patients the risk group after HIR with the maximum iteration level was different from the group after FBP reconstruction. CONCLUSION There was an excellent correlation of Agatston scores after HIR and FBP with identical risk group assignment at levels 1 - 3 for all patients. Hence it appears that the application of HIR in routine calcium scoring does not entail any disadvantages. Thus, future studies are needed to demonstrate whether HIR is a reliable method for reducing radiation dose in coronary calcium scoring.

Promoting palliative care in the community: production of the primary palliative care toolkit by the European Association of Palliative Care Taskforce in primary palliative care

BACKGROUND A multidisciplinary European Association of Palliative Care Taskforce was established to scope the extent of and learn what facilitates and hinders the development of palliative care in the community across Europe. AIM To document the barriers and facilitators for palliative care in the community and to produce a resource toolkit that palliative care specialists, primary care health professionals or policymakers, service developers, educationalists and national groups more generally could use to facilitate the development of palliative care in their own country. DESIGN (1) A survey instrument was sent to general practitioners with knowledge of palliative care services in the community in a diverse sample of European countries. We also conducted an international systematic review of tools used to identify people for palliative care in the community. (2) A draft toolkit was then constructed suggesting how individual countries might best address these issues, and an online survey was then set up for general practitioners and specialists to make comments. Iterations of the toolkit were then presented at international palliative care and primary care conferences. RESULTS Being unable to identify appropriate patients for palliative care in the community was a major barrier internationally. The systematic review identified tools that might be used to help address this. Various facilitators such as national strategies were identified. A primary palliative care toolkit has been produced and refined, together with associated guidance. CONCLUSION Many barriers and facilitators were identified. The primary palliative care toolkit can help community-based palliative care services to be established nationally.

Volcanic terrain and the possible periglacial formation of "excess ice" at the mid-latitudes of Utopia Planitia, Mars

At the mid-latitudes of Utopia Planitia (UP), Mars, a suite of spatially-associated landforms exhibit geomorphological traits that, on Earth, would be consistent with periglacial processes and the possible freeze-thaw cycling of water. The suite comprises small-sized polygonally-patterned ground, polygon-junction and -margin pits, and scalloped, rimless depressions. Typically, the landforms incise a dark-toned terrain that is thought to be ice-rich. Here, we investigate the dark-toned terrain by using high resolution images from the HiRISE as well as near-infrared spectral-data from the OMEGA and CRISM. The terrain displays erosional characteristics consistent with a sedimentary nature and near-infrared spectra characterised by a blue slope similar to that of weathered basaltic-tephra. We also describe volcanic terrain that is dark-toned and periglacially-modified in the Kamchatka mountain-range of eastern Russia. The terrain is characterised by weathered tephra inter-bedded with snow, ice-wedge polygons and near-surface excess ice. The excess ice forms in the pore space of the tephra as the result of snow-melt infiltration and, subsequently, in-situ freezing. Based on this possible analogue, we construct a three-stage mechanism that explains the possible ice-enrichment of a broad expanse of dark-toned terrain at the mid-latitudes of UP: (1) the dark-toned terrain accumulates and forms via the regional deposition of sediments sourced from explosive volcanism; (2) the volcanic sediments are blanketed by atmospherically-precipitated (H2O) snow, ice or an admixture of the two, either concurrent with the volcanic-events or between discrete events; and, (3) under the influence of high obliquity or explosive volcanism, boundary conditions tolerant of thaw evolve and this, in turn, permits the migration, cycling and eventual formation of excess ice in the volcanic sediments. Over time, and through episodic iterations of this scenario, excess ice forms to decametres of depth. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.