Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

The incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura-hemolytic uremic syndrome: all patients, idiopathic patients, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency

Summary. Background: Accurate estimates of the incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) are important to assess the resources required for current treatments as well as to anticipate the need to develop new treatments. Previous estimates have been indirect and have not reported data on patients with ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Objective: To determine the incidence of patients with TTP-hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) in three categories: all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Methods: Incidence rates were estimated from the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry, analyzing all 206 consecutive patients from January 1, 1996 to June 30, 2004 who were treated with plasma exchange for their initial episode of clinically suspected TTP-HUS. ADAMTS-13 activity was measured in 186 (90%) of the 206 patients. Results: The age–sex–race standardized annual incidence rates were 11.29 × 106 (95% CI: 9.70–12.88) for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS; 4.46 × 106 (95% CI: 3.43–5.50) for patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS; and 1.74 × 106 (95% CI: 1.06–2.41) for patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency (<5% activity). In all three categories, the incidence rates were greater for women and for blacks. For patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency, the age–sex standardized incidence rate ratio of blacks to non-blacks was 9.29 (95% CI: 4.33–19.93). Conclusions: Accurate incidence rate estimates for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, idiopathic TTP-HUS, and TTP associated with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency have been determined. The greater incidence among women and blacks is comparable with their increased risk for other autoimmune disorders.

Implementing fisher Black's simple discounting rule

We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

Self-esteem development from age 14 to 30 years: A longitudinal study

We examined the development of self-esteem in adolescence and young adulthood. Data came from the Young Adults section of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, which includes 8 assessments across a 14-year period of a national probability sample of 7,100 individuals age 14 to 30 years. Latent growth curve analyses indicated that self-esteem increases during adolescence and continues to increase more slowly in young adulthood. Women and men did not differ in their self-esteem trajectories. In adolescence, Hispanics had lower self-esteem than Blacks and Whites, but the self-esteem of Hispanics subsequently increased more strongly, so that at age 30 Blacks and Hispanics had higher self-esteem than Whites. At each age, emotionally stable, extraverted, and conscientious individuals experienced higher self-esteem than emotionally unstable, introverted, and less conscientious individuals. Moreover, at each age, high sense of mastery, low risk taking, and better health predicted higher self-esteem. Finally, the results suggest that normative increase in sense of mastery accounts for a large proportion of the normative increase in self-esteem.

Tracking the trajectory of shame, guilt, and pride across the life span

The authors examined age differences in shame, guilt, and 2 forms of pride (authentic and hubristic) from age 13 years to age 89 years, using cross-sectional data from 2,611 individuals. Shame decreased from adolescence into middle adulthood, reaching a nadir around age 50 years, and then increased in old age. Guilt increased from adolescence into old age, reaching a plateau at about age 70 years. Authentic pride increased from adolescence into old age, whereas hubristic pride decreased from adolescence into middle adulthood, reaching a minimum around age 65 years, and then increased in old age. On average, women reported experiencing more shame and guilt; Blacks reported experiencing less shame and Asians more hubristic pride than other ethnicities. Across the life span, shame and hubristic pride tended to be negatively related to psychological well-being, and shame-free guilt and authentic pride showed positive relations with well-being. Overall, the findings support the maturity principle of personality development and suggest that as people age they become more prone to experiencing psychologically adaptive self-conscious emotions, such as guilt and authentic pride, and less prone to experiencing psychologically maladaptive ones, such as shame and hubristic pride.

Self-esteem development from young adulthood to old age: A cohort-sequential longitudinal study

The authors examined the development of self-esteem from young adulthood to old age. Data came from the Americans’ Changing Lives study, which includes 4 assessments across a 16-year period of a nationally representative sample of 3,617 individuals aged 25 years to 104 years. Latent growth curve analyses indicated that self-esteem follows a quadratic trajectory across the adult life span, increasing during young and middle adulthood, reaching a peak at about age 60 years, and then declining in old age. No cohort differences in the self-esteem trajectory were found. Women had lower self-esteem than did men in young adulthood, but their trajectories converged in old age. Whites and Blacks had similar trajectories in young and middle adulthood, but the self-esteem of Blacks declined more sharply in old age than did the self-esteem of Whites. More educated individuals had higher self-esteem than did less educated individuals, but their trajectories were similar. Moreover, the results suggested that changes in socioeconomic status and physical health account for the decline in self-esteem that occurs in old age.

Ethnic disparity in defensive coping endothelial responses: The SABPA study

OBJECTIVES Defensive coping (DefS) in Blacks has been associated with greater cardiovascular risk than in their White counterparts. We examined associations between endothelial function mental stress responses and markers of vascular structure in a bi-ethnic cohort. METHODS We examined vascular function and structure in 368 Black (43.84±8.31years) and White Africans (44.78±10.90years). Fasting blood samples, 24h blood pressure, left carotid intima-media thickness of the far wall (L-CIMTf), and left carotid cross-sectional wall area (L-CSWA) values were obtained. von Willebrand factor (VWF), endothelin-1 (ET-1) and nitric oxide metabolite (NOx) responses to the Stroop mental stress test were calculated to assess endothelial function. DefS was assessed using the Coping Strategy Indicator questionnaire. Interaction between main effects was demonstrated for 283 participants with DefS scores above the mean of 26 for L-CIMTf. RESULTS Blunted stress responses for VWF (men 16.71% vs. 51.10%; women 0.85% vs. 42.09%, respectively) and NOx (men -64.52% vs. 74.89%; women -76.16% vs. 113.29%, respectively) were evident in the DefS Blacks compared to the DefS Whites (p<0.001). ET-1 increased more in Blacks (men 150% and women 227%, p<0.001) compared to the Whites (men 61.25% and women 35.49%, p<0.001). Ambulatory pulse pressure, but not endothelial function markers, contributed to L-CIMTf (ΔR(2)=0.11 p<0.001), and L-CSWA (ΔR(2)=0.08, p<0.001) in DefS African men but not in any other group. CONCLUSIONS Blunted stress-induced NOx and VWF responses and augmented ET-1 responses in DefS Blacks indicate endothelial dysfunction. DefS may facilitate disturbed endothelial responses and enforce vascular remodelling via compensatory increases in pulse pressure in Black men. These observations may indicate an increased risk of cardiovascular incidents via functional and structural changes of the vasculature in DefS Blacks.

Progression of cardiovascular risk factors in black Africans: 3 year follow up of the SABPA cohort study

Recent work identified a high prevalence of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among urban black South Africans. The aim was to track the progression of CVD risk factors in a multi-ethnic sample of South Africans. Participants were 173 black (aged 47.5 ± 7.8 yrs) and 186 white teachers (aged 49.6 ± 9.9 yrs) that were examined at baseline and 3 years follow-up. Blacks demonstrated a substantially higher prevalence of composite CVD burden (defined as history of physician diagnosed heart disease, use of anti-hypertensives, anti-diabetic, or statin medications at either time point) compared to whites (49.1 vs. 32.0%, p = 0.012) respectively. After controlling for baseline, the black participants demonstrated greater increases in 24 h systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting glucose, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and waist circumference in comparison with whites. In summary, an adverse progression of CVD risk factors was observed in the whole sample, although to a larger degree in black participants. Aggressive treatment strategies for controlling risk factors in black Africans are needed to reduce the increasing burden of CVD in South Africa.