„Extra locos sepulturae“ – Review about finds of newborns inside Roman settlements in present-day Switzerland

Finds of remains of newborns inside Roman settlements are a widespread phenomenon in the Imperium Romanum, including presentday Switzerland. Since the publication of the last review article (Berger 1993) numerous new finds have been made. Therefore it seems important to summarize archaeological and anthropological parameters again, and to re-assess them collectively. During a literature review a total of 262 cases were collected. Similarities as well as differences in the funerary practices become evident. A combination of inhumation, single deposit/grave, and absence of grave goods is the least common denominator in the funerary treatment of individuals who died around the time of birth. However, methods of classical physical anthropology are limited. Histological and biochemical methods are promising and may allow further statements in the future, e.g. with regard to the differentiation between live and still births. In order to evaluate possible correlations between archaeological and anthropological parameters, findings from settlements and cemeteries that are documented in situ as well as a sustainable theoretical framework are required.

Le Grand Retour ou les Grands Adieux ? Le roman de l’exil chez Kundera

Milan Kundera, an intellectual born in Moravia who emigrated to France in 1975, in L’Ignorance leans on the myth of Ulysses to question contemporary realities of exile and return, nostalgia and oblivion. Does the hope of returning to the place of origin really haunt the modern émigré? To what extent does the notion of homeland still have meaning for him? And what happens when the émigré, unlike Ulysses the great nostalgic, prefers to stay with Calypso his lover rather than return to his native land and faithful wife Penelope? With some cynicism, Kundera in L’Ignorance offers scenarios of exile which desecrate and destabilize historically and culturally available standards while allowing us to reflect on new paradigmatic figures of contemporary exile.

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Can stable isotope analysis and tooth histology assist in detecting stillbirth? An approach using neonatal remains from the Roman settlement Studen Petinesca

Infant burials in Roman settlements are a common observation. Even though ancient authors provide information many questions remain uncertain. For instance, the burial ritual for stillbirth and infanticide neonates is not specifically mentioned. This study therefore aimed to investigate the application of stable nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes from neonatal bone collagen in differentiating between a breastfeeding signal and stillbirth or a short survival of less than ten days. For this purpose collagen of 11 human and 14 non-human bones from the Roman settlement Petinesca (1st - 3rd century AD, Switzerland) was extracted and analysed for δ15N and δ13C. Tooth histology was performed for the central incisor and canine of the right mandible in order to investigate the presence of a neonatal line. According to the length of the long bones the age varied between 8.5 lunar months to 2 months ex utero. The stable isotope results provided a breastfeeding signal for all except one individual where the breastfeeding signal was absent. The tooth histological analysis of this individual exhibited no neonatal line. It is concluded that stable isotope analysis could indicate stillbirth or a short survival after birth. The tooth histology confirmed the stable isotope results. Furthermore, this might indicate that the burial ritual did not differentiate between stillbirth and neonates, who died within the time span stated by ancient authors of up to 40 days of age or the appearance of teeth. However, for further justifications additional research is going to be conducted.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.