78 resultados para Tree species


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A 272-ha grove of dominant Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpinioideae) adult trees greater than or equal to 50 cm stem diameter was mapped in its entirety in the southern part of Korup National Park, Cameroon. The approach used an earlier-established 82.5-ha permanent plot with a new surrounding 50-m grid of transect lines. Tree diameters were available from the plot but trees on the grid were recorded as being greater than or equal to 50 cm. The grove consisted of 1028 trees in 2000. Other species occurred within the grove. including the associated subdominants Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. Microberlinia bisulcata becomes adult at a stein diameter of c. 50 cm and at an estimated age of 50 y. Three oval-shaped subgroves with dimensions c. 8 50 in x 13 50 in (90 ha) were defined. For two of them (within the plot) tree diameters were available. Subgroves differed in their scales and intensities of spatial tree patterns, and in their size frequency distributions, these suggesting differing past dynamics. The modal scale of clumping was 40-50 m. Seed dispersal by pod ejection (to c. 50 in) was evident from the semi-circles of trees at the grove's edge and from the many internal circles (100-200 m diameter). The grove has the capacity. therefore, to increase at c. 100 m per century. To form its present extent and structure. it is inferred that it expanded and infilled from a possibly smaller area of lower adult-tree density. This possibly happened in three waves of recruitment, each one determined by a period of several intense disturbances. Climate records for Africa show that 1740-50 and 1820-30 were periods of drought, and that 1870-1895 was also regionally very dry. Canopy openings allow the light-demanding and fast-growing ectomycorrhizal M. bisulcata to establish, but successive releases are thought to be required to achieve effective recruitment. Nevertheless, in the last 50 y there were no major events and recruitment in the grove was very poor. This present study leads to a new hypothesis of the role of periods of multiple extreme events being the driving factor for the population dynamics of many large African tree species such as M. bisulcata.

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The water relations of two tree species in the Euphorbiaceae were compared to test in part a hypothesis that the forest understorey plays an integral role in drought response. At Danum, Sabah, the relatively common species Dimorphocalyx muricatus is associated with ridges whilst another species, Mallotus wrayi, occurs widely both on ridges and lower slopes. Sets of subplots within two 4 -ha permanent plots in this lowland dipterocarp rain forest, were positioned on ridges and lower slopes. Soil water potentials were recorded in 1995-1997, and leaf water potentials were measured on six occasions. Soil water potentials on the ridges (-0.047 MPa) were significantly lower than on the lower slopes (-0.012 MPa), but during the driest period in May 1997 they fell to similarly low levels on both sites (-0.53 MPa). A weighted 40-day accumulated rainfall index was developed to model the soil water potentials. At dry times, D. muricatus (ridge) had significantly higher pre-dawn (-0.21 v. -0.57 MPa) and mid-day (-0.59 v. -1.77 MPa) leaf water potentials than M. wrayi (mean of ridge and lower slope). Leaf osmotic potentials of M. wrayi on the ridges were lower (-1.63 MPa) than on lower slopes (-1.09 MPa), with those for D. muricatus being intermediate (-1.29 MPa): both species adjusted osmotically between wet and dry times. D. muricatus trees were more deeply rooted than M. wrayi trees (97 v. 70 cm). M. wrayi trees had greater lateral root cross-sectional areas than D. muricatus trees although a greater proportion of this sectional area for D. muricatus was further down the soil profile. D. muricatus appeared to maintain relatively high water potentials during dry periods because of its access to deeper water supplies and thus it largely avoided drought effects, but M. wrayi seemed to be more affected yet tolerant of drought and was more plastic in its response. The interaction between water availability and topography determines these species' distributions and provides insights into how rain forests can withstand occasional strong droughts.

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Based on litter mass and litterfall data, decomposition rates for leaves were found to be fast (k = 3.3) and the turnover times short (3.6 mo) on the low-nutrient sandy soils of Korup. Leaf litter of four ectomycorrhizal tree species (Berlinia bracteosa, Didelotia africana, Microberlinia bisulcata and Tetraberlinia bifoliolata) and of three non-ectomycorrhizal species (Cola verticillata, Oubanguia alata and Strephonema pseudocola) from Korup were left to decompose in 2-mm mesh bags on the forest floor in three plots of each of two forest types forest of low (LEM) and high (HEM) abundance of ectomycorrhizal (caesalp) trees. The litter of the ectomycorrhizal species decayed at a significantly slower rate than that of the non-ectomycorrhizal species, although the former were richer in P and N concentrations of the start. Disappearance rates of the litter layer showed a similar trend. Ectomycorrhizal species immobilized less N, but mineralized more P, than non-ectomycorrhizal species. Differences between species groups in K, Mg and Ca mineralization were negligible. Effect of forest type was clear only for Mg: mineralization of Mg was faster in the HEM than LEM plots, a pattern repeated across all species. This difference was attributed to a much more prolific fine root mat in the HEM than LEM forest. The relatively fast release of P from the litter of the ectomycorrhizal species suggests that the mat must allow an efficient uptake to maintain P in the forest ecosystem.

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Forest management is known to influence species diversity of various taxa but inconsistent or even contrasting effects are reported for arthropods. Regional differences in management as well as differences in regional species pools might be responsible for these inconsistencies, but, inter-regional replicated studies that account for regional variability are rare. We investigated the effect of forest type on the abundance, diversity, community structure and composition of two important ground-dwelling beetle families, Carabidae and Staphylinidae, in 149 forest stands distributed over three regions in Germany. In particular we focused on recent forestry history, stand age and dominant tree species, in addition to a number of environmental descriptors. Overall management effects on beetle communities were small and mainly mediated by structural habitat parameters such as the cover of forest canopy or the plant diversity on forest stands. The general response of both beetle taxa to forest management was similar in all regions: abundance and species richness of beetles was higher in older than in younger stands and species richness was lower in unmanaged than in managed stands. The abundance ratio of forest species-to-open habitat species differed between regions, but generally increased from young to old stands, from coniferous to deciduous stands and from managed to unmanaged stands. The response of both beetle families to dominant tree species was variable among regions and staphylinid richness varied in the response to recent forestry history. Our results suggest that current forest management practices change the composition of ground-dwelling beetle communities mainly by favoring generalists and open habitat species. To protect important forest beetle communities and thus the ecosystem functions and services provided by them, we suggest to shelter remaining ancient forests and to develop near-to-nature management strategies by prolonging rotation periods and increasing structural diversity of managed forests. Possible geographic variations in the response of beetle communities need to be considered in conservation-orientated forest management strategies.

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Negative density dependence (NDD) of recruitment is pervasive in tropical tree species. We tested the hypotheses that seed dispersal is NDD, due to intraspecific competition for dispersers, and that this contributes to NDD of recruitment. We compared dispersal in the palm Attalea butyracea across a wide range of population density on Barro Colorado Island in Panama and assessed its consequences for seed distributions. We found that frugivore visitation, seed removal and dispersal distance all declined with population density of A. butyracea, demonstrating NDD of seed dispersal due to competition for dispersers. Furthermore, as population density increased, the distances of seeds from the nearest adult decreased, conspecific seed crowding increased and seedling recruitment success decreased, all patterns expected under poorer dispersal. Unexpectedly, however, our analyses showed that NDD of dispersal did not contribute substantially to these changes in the quality of the seed distribution; patterns with population density were dominated by effects due solely to increasing adult and seed density.

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Aluminum phytotoxicity frequently occurs in acid soils (pH < 5.5) and was therefore discussed to affect ecosystem functioning of tropical montane forests. The susceptibility to Al toxicity depends on the sensitivity of the plant species and the Al speciation in soil solution, which can vary highly depending e.g., on pH, ionic strength, and dissolved organic matter. An acidification of the ecosystem and periodic base metal deposition from Saharan dust may control plant available Al concentrations in the soil solutions of tropical montane rainforests in south Ecuador. The overall objective of my study was to assess a potential Al phytotoxicity in the tropical montane forests in south Ecuador. For this purpose, I exposed three native Al non-accumulating tree species (Cedrela odorata L., Heliocarpus americanus L., and Tabebuia chrysantha (Jacq.) G. Nicholson) to increased Al concentrations (0 – 2400 μM Al) in a hydroponic experiment, I established dose-response curves to estimate the sensitivity of the tree species to increased Al concentrations, and I investigated the mechanisms behind the observed effects induced by elevated Al concentrations. Furthermore, the response of Al concentrations and the speciation in soil solution to Ca amendment in the study area were determined. In a final step, I assessed all major Al fluxes, drivers of Al concentrations in ecosystem solutions, and indicators of Al toxicity in the tropical montane rainforest in Ecuador in order to test for indications of Al toxicity. In the hydroponic experiment, a 10 % reduction in aboveground biomass production occurred at 126 to 376 μM Al (EC10 values), probably attributable to decreased Mg concentrations in leaves and reduced potosynthesis. At 300 μM Al, increased root biomass production of T. chrysantha was observed. Phosphorus concentrations in roots of C. odorata and T. chrysantha were significantly highest in the treatment with 300 μM Al and correlated significantly with root biomass, being a likely reason for stimulated root biomass production. The degree of organic complexation of Al in the organic layer leachate, which is central to plant nutrition because of the high root density, and soil solution from the study area was very high (mean > 99 %). The resulting low free Al concentrations are not likely to affect plant growth, although the concentrations of potentially toxic Al3+ increased with soil depth due to higher total Al and lower dissolved organic matter concentrations in soil solutions. The Ca additions caused an increase of Al in the organic layer leachate, probably because Al3+ was exchanged against the added Ca2+ ions while pH remained constant. The free ion molar ratios of Ca2+:Al3+ (mean ratio ca. 400) were far above the threshold (≤ 1) for Al toxicity, because of a much higher degree of organo-complexation of Al than Ca. High Al fluxes in litterfall (8.8 – 14.2 kg ha−1 yr−1) indicate a high Al circulation through the ecosystem. The Al concentrations in the organic layer leachate were driven by the acidification of the ecosystem and increased significantly between 1999 and 2008. However, the Ca:Al molar ratios in organic layer leachate and all aboveground ecosystem solutions were above the threshold for Al toxicity. Except for two Al accumulating and one non-accumulating tree species, the Ca:Al molar ratios in tree leaves from the study area were above the Al toxicity threshold of 12.5. I conclude that toxic effects in the hydroponic experiment occurred at Al concentrations far above those in native organic layer leachate, shoot biomass production was likely inhibited by reduced Mg uptake, impairing photosynthesis, and the stimulation of root growth at low Al concentrations can be possibly attributed to improved P uptake. Dissolved organic matter in soil solutions detoxifies Al in acidic tropical forest soils and a wide distribution of Al accumulating tree species and high Al fluxes in the ecosystem do not necessarily imply a general Al phytotoxicity.

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Epixylic bryophytes are important components of forest vegetation but are currently endangered by increment of wood harvest and intensive forest management. In this paper we present a study about the relationship between forest management, deadwood abundance, deadwood attributes and species richness of epixylic bryophytes on 30 plots comprising three forest types (managed coniferous, managed deciduous and unmanaged deciduous forests) in three regions in Germany. Additionally we analyzed the relations between deadwood attributes (wood species, decay, deadwood type, size) and bryophytes on deadwood items (n = 799) and calculated species interaction networks of wood species and bryophytes. Overall, species richness of epixylic bryophytes was positively related to deadwood abundance and diversity. The mean deadwood abundance was lowest in unmanaged forests (9.7 m3 ha-1) compared with 15.0 m3 ha-1 in managed deciduous and 25.1 m3 ha-1 in managed coniferous forests. Accordingly, epixylic bryophyte species richness per plot increased from 7 species per 400 m 2 in unmanaged, 10 in managed deciduous and 16 in managed coniferous forests. The interaction network provided evidence of importance of tree-species diversity for bryophyte diversity and the relevance of particular wood species for rare bryophytes.

Generally, the results demonstrate a considerable lack of deadwood in all forest types, even in unmanaged forests. Species richness of epixylic bryophytes was strongly limited by available substrates within the observed deadwood abundance ranging up to only 60 m3 ha-1. Altogether, this suggests a high demand to increase both abundance and diversity of deadwood in forests.

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Enrichment of 13C in SOM with soil depth is related to interacting processes influenced by temperature and precipitation. Our objectives were to derive climate effects on patterns of vertical δ13C values of soil organic matter (SOM) while minimizing the effect of confounding variables. We investigated vertical changes in δ13C values of SOM in 1-cm depth intervals in silvicultural mature beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest ecosystems in northern Rhineland-Palatinate across gradients of MAT (7.9 to 9.7 °C mean annual temperature) and MAP (607 to 1085 mm mean annual precipitation) in winter 2011. Forest stands (n = 10) were chosen based on data sets provided by the Rhineland-Palatinate Forest Administration so that variations in these gradients occurred while other environmental factors like physico-chemical soil properties, tree species, stand age, exposition and precipitation (for the temperature gradient) or temperature (for the precipitation gradient) did not differ among study sites. From litter down to the mineral soil at 10 cm depth, soil organic carbon (SOC) content decreased (47.5 ± SE 0.1% to 2.5 ± 0.1%) while the δ13C values increased (− 29.4 ± 0.1‰ to − 26.1 ± 0.1‰). Litter of sites under higher MAP/lower MAT had lower δ13C values which was in line with literature data on climate driven plant physiological process. To compare the dimension of the vertical 13C enrichment, δ13C values were regressed linearly against log-transformed carbon contents yielding absolute values of these slopes (beta). Beta values ranged between 0.6 and 4.5 (range of r from − 0.7 to − 1.0; p < 0.01). Due to an assumed decay continuum and similar variations of δ13C values in litter and in 10 cm depth, we conclude that effects on isotope composition in the Oi layer continue vertically and therefore, δ13C values in litter do not solely control beta values. Beta values decreased with increasing MAT (r = − 0.83; p < 0.05). Reduced soil moisture and therefore both, reduced microbial activity and reduced downward transport of microbial cycled DOM (=13C enriched) might be responsible for less pronounced δ13C depth profiles in case of high temperatures. Greater C:N ratios (lower degradability) of the litter under higher temperatures likely contributed to these depth trends. Beta values increased with increasing MAP (r = 0.73; p < 0.05). We found decreasing C:N ratios in the mineral soil that possibly indicates higher decomposition under higher precipitation. Exclusion of the organic layers from linear regressions indicated a stronger impact of MAP on the development of δ13C depth profiles. Our results confirm temperature and precipitation effects on δ13C depth profiles and indicate stronger 13C enrichment under lower MAT/higher MAP. Therefore, time series of vertical δ13C depth profiles might provide insights into climate change effects.

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Background and aims Differences in chemical composition of root compounds and root systems among tree species may affect organic matter (OM) distribution, source and composition in forest soils. The objective of this study was to elucidate the contribution of species specific cutin and suberin biomarkers as proxies for shoot- and root-derived organic carbon (OC) to soil OM at different depths with increasing distance to the stems of four different tree species. Methods The contribution of cutin- and suberin-derived lipids to OM in a Cutanic Alisol was analyzed with increasing soil depth and distance to the stems of Fagus sylvatica L., Picea abies (L.) Karst., Quercus robur L. and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco. Cutin and suberin monomers of plants and soils were analyzed by alkaline hydrolysis and subsequent gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Results The amount and distribution of suberin-derived lipids in soil clearly reflected the specific root system of the different tree species. The amount of cutin-derived lipids decreased strongly with soil depth, indicating that the input of leaf/needle material is restricted to the topsoil. In contrast to the suberin-derived lipids, the spatial pattern of cutin monomer contribution to soil OM did not depend on tree species. Conclusions Our results document the importance of tree species as a main factor controlling the composition and distribution of OM in forest soils. They reveal the impact of tree species on root-derived OM distribution and the necessity to distinguish among different zones when studying soil OM storage in forests.

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Effects of conspecific neighbours on survival and growth of trees have been found to be related to species abundance. Both positive and negative relationships may explain observed abundance patterns. Surprisingly, it is rarely tested whether such relationships could be biased or even spurious due to transforming neighbourhood variables or influences of spatial aggregation, distance decay of neighbour effects and standardization of effect sizes. To investigate potential biases, communities of 20 identical species were simulated with log-series abundances but without species-specific interactions. No relationship of conspecific neighbour effects on survival or growth with species abundance was expected. Survival and growth of individuals was simulated in random and aggregated spatial patterns using no, linear, or squared distance decay of neighbour effects. Regression coefficients of statistical neighbourhood models were unbiased and unrelated to species abundance. However, variation in the number of conspecific neighbours was positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformations of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Consequently, effect sizes and standardized regression coefficients, often used in model fitting across large numbers of species, were also positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformation of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Tests using randomized tree positions and identities provide the best benchmarks by which to critically evaluate relationships of effect sizes or standardized regression coefficients with tree species abundance. This will better guard against potential misinterpretations.

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Lake sediments from arcto-boreal regions commonly contain abundant Betula pollen. However, palaeoenvironmental interpretations of Betula pollen are often ambiguous because of the lack of reliable morphological features to distinguish among ecologically distinct Betula species in western North America. We measured the grain diameters and pore depths of pollen from three tree-birch species (B. papyrifera, B. kenaica and B. neoalaskana) and two shrub-birch species (B. glandulosa and B. nana), and calculated the ratio of grain diameter to pore depth (D/P ratio). No statistical difference exists in all three parameters between the shrub-birch species or between two of the tree-birch species (B. kenaica and B. papyrifera), and B. neoalaskana is intermediate between the shrub-birch and the other two tree-birch species. However, mean pore depth is significantly larger for the tree species than for the shrub species. In contrast, mean grain diameter cannot distinguish tree and shrub species. Mean D/P ratio separates tree and shrub species less clearly than pore depth, but this ratio can be used for verification. The threshold for distinguishing pollen of tree versus shrub birch lies at 2.55 μm and 8.30 for pore depth and D/P ratio, respectively. We'applied these thresholds to the analysis of Betula pollen in an Alaskan lake-sediment core spanning the past 800 years. Results show that shrub birch increased markedly at the expense of tree birch during the‘Little Ice Age’; this patten is not discernible in the profile of total birch pollen.

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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Oxygen isotope records show a major climatic reversal at 8.2 ka in Greenland and Europe. Annually laminated sediments from two lakes in Switzerland and Germany were sampled contiguously to assess the response of European vegetation to climate change ca. 8.2 ka with time resolution and precision comparable to those of the Greenland ice cores. The pollen assemblages show pronounced and immediate responses (0–20 yr) of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic change at 8.2 ka. A sudden collapse of Corylus avellana (hazel) was accompanied by the rapid expansion of Pinus (pine), Betula (birch), and Tilia (linden), and by the invasion of Fagus silvatica (beech) and Abies alba (fir). Vegetational changes suggest that climatic cooling reduced drought stress, allowing more drought-sensitive and taller growing species to out-compete Corylus avellana by forming denser forest canopies. Climate cooling at 8.2 ka and the immediate reorganization of terrestrial ecosystems has gone unrecognized by previous pollen studies. On the basis of our data we conclude that the early Holocene high abundance of C. avellana in Europe was climatically caused, and we question the conventional opinion that postglacial expansions of F. silvatica and A. alba were controlled by low migration rates rather than by climate. The close connection between climatic change and vegetational response at a subcontinental scale implies that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid collapses, expansions, and invasions of tree species.

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The functioning and services of Central European forests are threatened by global change and a loss of biodiversity. Nutrient cycling as a key forest function is affected by biotic drivers (e.g., dominant tree species, understory plants, soil organisms) that interact with abiotic conditions (e.g., climate, soil properties). In contrast to grassland ecosystems, evidence for the relationship of nutrient cycles and biodiversity in forests is scarce because the structural complexity of forests limits experimental control of driving factors. Alternatively, observational studies along gradients in abiotic conditions and biotic properties may elucidate the role of biodiversity for forest nutrient cycles. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the functional importance of biodiversity for nutrient cycles in forests by analyzing water-bound fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) along gradients in biodiversity in three regions of Germany. The tested hypotheses included: (1) temperate forest canopies retain atmospheric N and retention increases with increasing plant diversity, (2) N release from organic layers increases with resource availability and population size of decomposers but N leaching decreases along a gradient in plant diversity, (3) P leaching from forest canopies increases with improved P supply from recalcitrant P fractions by a more diverse ectomycorrhizal fungal community. In the canopies of 27 forest stands from three regions, 16 % to 51 % of atmospheric N inputs were retained. Regional differences in N retention likely resulted from different in N availability in the soil. Canopy N retention was greater in coniferous than in beech forests, but this was not the case on loessderived soils. Nitrogen retention increased with increasing tree and shrub diversity which suggested complementary aboveground N uptake. The strength of the diversity effect on canopy N uptake differed among regions and between coniferous and deciduous forests. The N processing in the canopy directly coupled back to N leaching from organic layers in beech forests because throughfall-derived N flushed almost completely through the mull-type organic layers at the 12 studied beech sites. The N release from organic layers increased with stand basal area but was rather low (< 10 % of annual aboveground litterfall) because of a potentially high microbial N immobilization and intensive incorporation of litter into the mineral soil by bioturbation. Soil fauna biomass stimulated N mineralization through trophic interactions with primary producers and soil microorganisms. Both gross and net leaching from organic layers decreased with increasing plant diversity. Especially the diversity but not the cover of herbs increased N uptake. In contrast to N, P was leached from the canopy. Throughfall-derived P was also flushed quickly through the mull-type organic layers and leached P was predominantly immobilized in non directly plant-available P fractions in the mineral soil. Concentrations of plant-available phosphate in mineral soil solution were low and P leaching from the canopy increased with increasing concentrations of the moderately labile P fraction in soil and increasing ectomycorrhiza diversity while leaf C:P ratios decreased. This suggested that tree P supply benefited from complementary mining of diverse mycorrhizal communities for recalcitrant P. Canopy P leaching increased in years with pronounced spring drought which could lead to a deterioration of P supply by an increasing frequency of drought events. This thesis showed that N and P cycling in Central European forests is controlled by a complex interplay of abiotic site conditions with biological processes mediated by various groups of organisms, and that diverse plant communities contribute to tightening the N cycle in Central European forests and that diverse mycorrhizal communities improve the limited P availability. Maintaining forest biodiversity seems essential to ensure forest services in the light of environmental change.

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Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.