Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

NLO thermal dilepton rate at non-zero momentum

The vector channel spectral function and the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma at a temperature above a few hundred MeV are evaluated up to next-to-leading order (NLO) including their dependence on a non-zero momentum with respect to the heat bath. The invariant mass of the virtual photon is taken to be in the range K2 ~ (πT)2 ~ (1GeV)2, generalizing previous NLO results valid for K2 ≫ (πT)2. In the opposite regime 0 < K2 ≪ (πT)2 the loop expansion breaks down, but agrees nevertheless in order of magnitude with a previous result obtained through resummations. Ways to test the vector spectral function through comparisons with imaginary-time correlators measured on the lattice are discussed.

Knowledge representation through graphs

Due to the increasing amount of data, knowledge aggregation, representation and reasoning are highly important for companies. In this paper, knowledge aggregation is presented as the first step. In the sequel, successful knowledge representation, for instance through graphs, enables knowledge-based reasoning. There exist various forms of knowledge representation through graphs; some of which allow to handle uncertainty and imprecision by invoking the technology of fuzzy sets. The paper provides an overview of different types of graphs stressing their relationships and their essential features.

Bipartite graphs and quasipositive surfaces

We present a simple combinatorial model for quasipositive surfaces and positive braids, based on embedded bipartite graphs. As a first application, we extend the well-known duality on standard diagrams of torus links to twisted torus links. We then introduce a combinatorial notion of adjacency for bipartite graph links and discuss its potential relation with the adjacency problem for plane curve singularities.

Comparison of energy expenditure, eating pattern and physical activity of grazing and zero-grazing dairy cows at different time points during lactation

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of grazing versus zero-grazing on energy expenditure (EE), feeding behaviour and physical activity in dairy cows at different stages of lactation. Fourteen Holstein cows were subjected to two treatments in a repeated crossover design with three experimental series (S1, S2, and S3) reflecting increased days in milk (DIM). At the beginning of each series, cows were on average at 38, 94 and 171 (standard deviation (SD) 10.8) DIM, respectively. Each series consisted of two periods containing a 7-d adaptation and a 7-d collection period each. Cows either grazed on pasture for 16–18.5 h per day or were kept in a freestall barn and had ad libitum access to herbage harvested from the same paddock. Herbage intake was estimated using the double alkane technique. On each day of the collection period, EE of one cow in the barn and of one cow on pasture was determined for 6 h by using the 13C bicarbonate dilution technique, with blood sample collection done either manually in the barn or using an automatic sampling system on pasture. Furthermore, during each collection period physical activity and feeding behaviour of cows were recorded over 3 d using pedometers and behaviour recorders. Milk yield decreased with increasing DIM (P<0.001) but was similar with both treatments. Herbage intake was lower (P<0.01) for grazing cows (16.8 kg dry matter (DM)/d) compared to zero-grazing cows (18.9 kg DM/d). The lowest (P<0.001) intake was observed in S1 and similar intakes were observed in S2 and S3. Within the 6-h measurement period, grazing cows expended 19% more (P<0.001) energy (319 versus 269 kJ/kg metabolic body size (BW0.75)) than zero-grazing cows and differences in EE did not change with increasing DIM. Grazing cows spent proportionally more (P<0.001) time walking and less time standing (P<0.001) and lying (P<0.05) than zero-grazing cows. The proportion of time spent eating was greater (P<0.001) and that of time spent ruminating was lower (P<0.05) for grazing cows compared to zero-grazing cows. In conclusion, lower feed intake along with the unchanged milk production indicates that grazing cows mobilized body reserves to cover additional energy requirements which were at least partly caused by more physical activity. However, changes in cows׳ behaviour between the considered time points during lactation were too small so that differences in EE remained similar between treatments with increasing DIM.

Définition d'un état zero et mise en place d'un système de suivi écologique permanent de l'arboretum de la station forestière de Mandraka

Mandraka possède de nombreux écosystèmes, dominés surtout par les forêts. Cette zone est située sur la première falaise orientale malgache et affiche des reliefs accidentés (pentes supérieures à 60%). Elle est exposée à un régime climatique à forte influence orientale se traduisant par une humidité permanente et un régime cyclonique fréquent. Les paramètres stationnels sont ainsi rudes, or ils sont écologiquement très importants car plusieurs caractéristiques physionomiques et comportementales des espèces forestières en dépendent. Cette étude s'intéresse à la station forestière de Mandraka, particulièrement à l'arboretum. Ce dernier fût créé dans les années cinquante et est actuellement géré par le Département des Eaux et Forêts. Ce site est actuellement à vocation pédagogique et écotouristique. Son état écologique est inconnu jusqu'à maintenant, et depuis sa création, aucun système n'a été mis en place pour mesurer et suivre sa viabilité. D'où, l'intitulé de ce travail de mémoire : « Définition d'un état zéro et mise en place d'un système de suivi écologique permanent de l'arboretum de la station forestière de Mandraka ». Les objectifs étant de collecter des données concernant l'état écologique actuel du site, d'identifier des indicateurs de suivi pour mesurer sa viabilité, et d'inclure un système de suivi écologique permanent dans une proposition de plan d'aménagement pour l'arboretum. Le suivi est en effet un outil très important pour l'analyse des ressources forestières. Il permet de cadrer toutes les interventions. Les diverses analyses menées lors de cette étude ont révélé une viabilité moyenne de l'arboretum. Cela est induit par une qualité de peuplement moyennement stable, une mortalité élevée (plus de 14%), et un potentiel d'avenir très faible, voire inexistant (taux de régénération à 0%). L'envahissement de la forêt artificielle par les espèces autochtones constitue la pression la plus importante de cet arboretum vu qu'il se trouve au milieu des forêts naturelles. L'analyse sylvicole effectuée sur les deux types dendrologiques révèle que les peuplements de conifères présentent des caractéristiques sylvicoles plus favorables que les feuillus. Ce niveau moyen de viabilité de l'arboretum implique ainsi la proposition d'un plan d'aménagement pour l'améliorer; le suivi est une activité primordiale, d'où la proposition d'un plan de suivi permanent pour l'arboretum. A noter que malgré la considération du critère de représentativité pour l'échantillonnage, toutes les questions ne pourront être répondues du fait que plusieurs mosaïques de peuplements artificiels de différentes espèces constituent l'arboretum, et que chacune de ces espèces plantées ont leurs propres caractéristiques. La mise en place des plots permanents d'observation ne servira ainsi que de référence (Etat zéro), mais on propose de prévoir un suivi intégral ainsi que diverses interventions pour l'arboretum en général. Ce travail constitue ainsi une base de données pour l'arboretum et pour la station forestière de Mandraka, mais il ne représente qu'une des facettes à prendre en considération dans une finalité d'amélioration de la viabilité. L'élaboration de cartes thématiques et d'évolution spatio-temporelle à l'issue de SIG (Système d'Information Géographique) permettra d'enrichir les informations établies et admettra un suivi plus précis.

Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Non-self-adjoint graphs

On finite metric graphs we consider Laplace operators, subject to various classes of non-self-adjoint boundary conditions imposed at graph vertices. We investigate spectral properties, existence of a Riesz basis of projectors and similarity transforms to self-adjoint Laplacians. Among other things, we describe a simple way to relate the similarity transforms between Laplacians on certain graphs with elementary similarity transforms between matrices defining the boundary conditions.