Why Monte Carlo Simulations are Inferences and not Experiments

Monte Carlo simulations arrive at their results by introducing randomness, sometimes derived from a physical randomizing device. Nonetheless, we argue, they open no new epistemic channels beyond that already employed by traditional simulations: the inference by ordinary argumentation of conclusions from assumptions built into the simulations. We show that Monte Carlo simulations cannot produce knowledge other than by inference, and that they resemble other computer simulations in the manner in which they derive their conclusions. Simple examples of Monte Carlo simulations are analysed to identify the underlying inferences.

Faith as a Mustard Seed

Abstract: This investigation of the concept of faith is divided into two parts. Part One evaluates a topical philosophical interpretation of faith as irreducibly disjunctive, collecting the best fragmented ideas as to what constitutes faith in a recent family resemblance exposition as an objective for an adequate essentialist analysis of the concept of faith to achieve. Part Two offers a more extended essentialist analysis of the concept of faith as unconditional patience in the eventuality of a positive future state, and a detailed reduction of six supposedly disparate family resemblance senses of faith to this single definition. Criteria for a satisfactory analysis of faithfulness are considered and defended. In contrast with what has become a standard doxastic-epistemic interpretation of faith as persistent unjustified or even unjustifiable belief, a concept of faith is advanced that appears to satisfy the necessary and sufficient criteria identified. Systematic comparison with a variety of usages of the word “faith” suggests that the analysis agrees with many and arguably most applications of this sometimes loosely understood term. Implications of the analysis of the concept of faith are considered and defended against anticipated objections. Pascal’s wager is critically examined in relation to matters of religious faith, along with positivist meaningfulness requirements that seem to conflict especially with epistemically ungrounded belief, the power of faith, and the metaphorical size of mustard seeds. The inquiry concludes with a synthesis of five aspects of six supposedly distinct senses of faith under the single essentialist reductive umbrella of unconditional patience in the eventuality of a positive future state.

Intuitionistic common knowledge or belief

Starting off from the usual language of modal logic for multi-agent systems dealing with the agents’ knowledge/belief and common knowledge/belief we define so-called epistemic Kripke structures for intu- itionistic (common) knowledge/belief. Then we introduce corresponding deductive systems and show that they are sound and complete with respect to these semantics.

Rachegefühle und posttraumatische Belastungsreaktionen bei Opfern von Gewalttaten

Theoretischer Hintergrund: Beschreibungen der posttraumatischen Belastungsstörung (PTB) besagen, dass Personen mit PTB häufig starke Rachegefühle erleben. Es besteht jedoch ein Mangel an bestätigenden empirischen Untersuchungen. Fragestellung: Der Zusammenhang zwischen Rachegefühlen und posttraumatischen Belastungsreaktionen wird untersucht. Methode: Die Daten wurden mittels Selbstbeurteilung bei 174 Opfern von Gewalttaten erfasst. Zur Messung der Belastungsreaktionen wurde die Impact of Event-Skala – revidierte Version (IES-R) eingesetzt. Ergebnisse: Rachegefühle korrelieren bedeutsam mit posttraumatischer Intrusion und Übererregung, jedoch nicht mit Vermeidung. Rachegefühle leisten einen Beitrag zur Varianzaufklärung, der über den Vorhersagebeitrag viktimologischer Standardvariablen hinausgeht. Der Zusammenhang wird jedoch erst mit wachsendem zeitlichen Abstand vom Ereignis enger. Schlussfolgerungen: Rachegefühle sind vermutlich als dysfunktionale Bewältigungsreaktion auf erlittene Ungerechtigkeit zu bewerten, jedoch nicht in der ersten Zeit nach einer kriminellen Viktimisierung.

Car, parce que, puisque’ revisited: Three empirical studies on French causal connectives

In French, a causal relation is often conveyed by the connectives car, parce que or puisque. Since the seminal work of the Lambda-l Group (1975), it has generally been assumed that parce que, used to relate semantic content, contrasts with car and puisque, both used to connect either speech act or epistemic content. However, this analysis leaves a number of questions unanswered. In this paper, I present a reanalysis of this trio, using empirical methods such as corpus analysis and constrained elicitation. Results indicate that car and parce que are interchangeable in many contexts, even if they are still prototypically used in their respective domain in writing. As for puisque, its distribution does not overlap with car, despite their similar domains of use. I argue that the specificity of puisque with respect to the other two connectives is to introduce a cause with an echoic meaning.

Long-term Success of Family Firms: Investigating Specific Aspects of Firm-level Entrepreneurship and Individual-level Antecedents

Long-term success of family firms is of utmost social and economic importance. Three of its determinants are in the center of this Dissertation: firmlevel entrepreneurial orientation (EO), managers' entrepreneurial behavior, and value-creating attitudes of non-family employees. Each determinant and respective research gaps are addressed by one paper of this cumulative dissertation. Referring to firm-level EO, scholars claim that EO is a main antecedent to firms' both short- and long-term success. However, family firms seem to be successful across generations despite rather low levels of EO. The first paper addresses this paradox by investigating EO patterns of long-lived family firms in three Swiss case studies. The main finding is that the key to success is not to be as entrepreneurially as possible all the time, but to continuously adapt the EO profile depending on internal and external factors. Moreover, the paper suggest new subcategories to different EO dimensions. With regard to entrepreneurial behavior of managers, there is a lack of knowledge how individual-level and organizational level factors affect its evolvement. The second paper addresses this gap by investigating a sample of 403 middle-level managers from both family and non-family firms. It introduces psychological ownership of managers as individual-level antecedent and investigates the interaction with organizational factors. As a central insight, management support is found to strengthen the psychological ownership-entrepreneurial behavior relationship. The third paper is based on the fact that employees' justice perceptions are established antecedents of value-creating employee attitudes such as affective commitment and job satisfaction. Even though family firms are susceptible to nonfamily employees´ perceptions of injustice, corresponding research is scarce. Moreover, the mechanism connecting justice perceptions and positive outcomes is still unclear. Addressing these gaps, the analysis of a sample of 310 non-family employees reveals that psychological ownership is a mediator in the relationships between distributive justice perceptions and both affective commitment and job satisfaction. Altogether, the three papers offer valuable contributions to family business literature with respect to EO, entrepreneurial behavior, and value-creating employee attitudes. Thus, they increase current understanding about important determinants of family firms' long-term success, while opening up numerous ways of future research.