Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Uniqueness of minimisers for a Grötzsch-Belinskiĭ type inequality in the Heisenberg group

The modulus method introduced by H. Grötzsch yields bounds for a mean distortion functional of quasiconformal maps between two annuli mapping the respective boundary components onto each other. P. P. Belinskiĭ studied these inequalities in the plane and identified the family of all minimisers. Beyond the Euclidean framework, a Grötzsch-Belinskiĭ-type inequality has been previously considered for quasiconformal maps between annuli in the Heisenberg group whose boundaries are Korányi spheres. In this note we show that--in contrast to the planar situation--the minimiser in this setting is essentially unique.

3D-modeling of Mercury's solar wind sputtered surface-exosphere environment

The efficiency of sputtered refractory elements by H+ and He++ solar wind ions from Mercury's surface and their contribution to the exosphere are studied for various solar wind conditions. A 3D solar wind-planetary interaction hybrid model is used for the evaluation of precipitation maps of the sputter agents on Mercury's surface. By assuming a global mineralogical surface composition, the related sputter yields are calculated by means of the 2013 SRIM code and are coupled with a 3D exosphere model. Because of Mercury's magnetic field, for quiet and nominal solar wind conditions the plasma can only precipitate around the polar areas, while for extreme solar events (fast solar wind, coronal mass ejections, interplanetary magnetic clouds) the solar wind plasma has access to the entire dayside. In that case the release of particles form the planet's surface can result in an exosphere density increase of more than one order of magnitude. The corresponding escape rates are also about an order of magnitude higher. Moreover, the amount of He++ ions in the precipitating solar plasma flow enhances also the release of sputtered elements from the surface in the exosphere. A comparison of our model results with MESSENGER observations of sputtered Mg and Ca elements in the exosphere shows a reasonable quantitative agreement. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced Knowledge Management by Synchronizing Mind Maps and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

This paper presents a conceptual approach to enhance knowledge management by synchronizing mind maps and fuzzy cognitive maps. The use of mind maps allows taking advantage of human creativity, while the application of fuzzy cognitive maps enables to store information expressed in natural language. By applying cognitive computing, it makes possible to gather and extract relevant information out of a data pool. Therefore, this approach is supposed to give a framework that enhances knowledge management. To demonstrate the potential of this framework, a use case concerning the development of a smart city app is presented.

Characterization of OSIRIS NAC filters for the interpretation of multispectral data of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. We interpret multicolor data from OSIRIS NAC for the remote-sensing exploration of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Aims. We determine the most meaningful definition of color maps for the characterization of surface variegation with filters available on OSIRIS NAC. Methods. We analyzed laboratory spectra of selected minerals and olivine-pyroxene mixtures seen through OSIRIS NAC filters, with spectral methods existing in the literature: reflectance ratios, minimum band wavelength, spectral slopes, band tilt, band curvature, and visible tilt. Results. We emphasize the importance of reflectance ratios and particularly the relation of visible tilt vs. band tilt. This technique provides a reliable diagnostic of the presence of silicates. Color maps constructed by red-green-blue colors defined with the green, orange, red, IR, and Fe2O3 filters let us define regions that may significantly differ in composition.

Cortical regional hyperperfusion in nonconvulsive status epilepticus measured by dynamic brain perfusion CT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Nonconvulsive status epilepticus (NCSE) is associated with a mortality rate of up to 18%, therefore requiring prompt diagnosis and treatment. Our aim was to evaluate the diagnostic value of perfusion CT (PCT) in the differential diagnosis of NCSE versus postictal states in patients presenting with persistent altered mental states after a preceding epileptic seizure. We hypothesized that regional cortical hyperperfusion can be measured by PCT in patients with NCSE, whereas it is not present in postictal states. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nineteen patients with persistent altered mental status after a preceding epileptic seizure underwent PCT and electroencephalography (EEG). Patients were stratified as presenting with NCSE (n = 9) or a postictal state (n = 10) on the basis of clinical history and EEG data. Quantitative and visual analysis of the perfusion maps was performed. RESULTS: Patients during NCSE had significantly increased regional cerebral blood flow (P > .0001), increased regional cerebral blood volume (P > .001), and decreased (P > .001) mean transit time compared with the postictal state. Regional cortical hyperperfusion was depicted in 7/9 of patients with NCSE by ad hoc analysis of parametric perfusion maps during emergency conditions but was not a feature of postictal states. The areas of hyperperfusion were concordant with transient clinical symptoms and EEG topography in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Visual analysis of perfusion maps detected regional hyperperfusion in NCSE with a sensitivity of 78%. The broad availability and short processing time of PCT in an emergency situation is a benefit compared with EEG. Consequently, the use of PCT in epilepsy may accelerate the diagnosis of NCSE. PCT may qualify as a complementary diagnostic tool to EEG in patients with persistent altered mental state after a preceding seizure.

Frequency-domain source localization shows state-dependent diazepam effects in 47-channel EEG

The topic of this study was to evaluate state-dependent effects of diazepam on the frequency characteristics of 47-channel spontaneous EEG maps. A novel method, the FFT-Dipole-Approximation (Lehmann and Michel, 1990), was used to study effects on the strength and the topography of the maps in the different frequency bands. Map topography was characterized by the 3-dimensional location of the equivalent dipole source and map strength was defined as the spatial standard deviation (the Global Field Power) of the maps of each frequency point. The Global Field Power can be considered as a measure of the amount of energy produced by the system, while the source location gives an estimate of the center of gravity of all sources in the brain that were active at a certain frequency. State-dependency was studied by evaluating the drug effects before and after a continuous performance task of 25 min duration. Clear interactions between drug (diazepam vs. placebo) and time after drug intake (before and after the task) were found, especially in the inferior-superior location of the dipole sources. It supports the hypothesis that diazepam, like other drugs, has different effects on brain functions depending on the momentary functional state of the brain. In addition to the drug effects, clearly different source locations and Global Field Power were found for the different frequency bands, replicating earlier reports (Michel et al., 1992).

Multi-scale micro-structure generation strategy for up-scaling transport in clays

Clays and claystones are used as backfill and barrier materials in the design of waste repositories, because they act as hydraulic barriers and retain contaminants. Transport through such barriers occurs mainly by molecular diffusion. There is thus an interest to relate the diffusion properties of clays to their structural properties. In previous work, we have developed a concept for up-scaling pore-scale molecular diffusion coefficients using a grid-based model for the sample pore structure. Here we present an operational algorithm which can generate such model pore structures of polymineral materials. The obtained pore maps match the rock’s mineralogical components and its macroscopic properties such as porosity, grain and pore size distributions. Representative ensembles of grains in 2D or 3D are created by a lattice Monte Carlo (MC) method, which minimizes the interfacial energy of grains starting from an initial grain distribution. Pores are generated at grain boundaries and/or within grains. The method is general and allows to generate anisotropic structures with grains of approximately predetermined shapes, or with mixtures of different grain types. A specific focus of this study was on the simulation of clay-like materials. The generated clay pore maps were then used to derive upscaled effective diffusion coefficients for non-sorbing tracers using a homogenization technique. The large number of generated maps allowed to check the relations between micro-structural features of clays and their effective transport parameters, as is required to explain and extrapolate experimental diffusion results. As examples, we present a set of 2D and 3D simulations and investigated the effects of nanopores within particles (interlayer pores) and micropores between particles. Archie’s simple power law is followed in systems with only micropores. When nanopores are present, additional parameters are required; the data reveal that effective diffusion coefficients could be described by a sum of two power functions, related to the micro- and nanoporosity. We further used the model to investigate the relationships between particle orientation and effective transport properties of the sample.

Probing the Allende meteorite with a miniature laser-ablation mass analyser for space application

We measured the elemental composition on a sample of Allende meteorite with a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer. This Laser Mass Spectrometer (LMS) has been designed and built at the University of Bern in the Department of Space Research and Planetary Sciences with the objective of using such an instrument on a space mission. Utilising the meteorite Allende as the test sample in this study, it is demonstrated that the instrument allows the in situ determination of the elemental composition and thus mineralogy and petrology of untreated rocky samples, particularly on planetary surfaces. In total, 138 measurements of elemental compositions have been carried out on an Allende sample. The mass spectrometric data are evaluated and correlated with an optical image. It is demonstrated that by illustrating the measured elements in the form of mineralogical maps, LMS can serve as an element imaging instrument with a very high spatial resolution of µm scale. The detailed analysis also includes a mineralogical evaluation and an investigation of the volatile element content of Allende. All findings are in good agreement with published data and underline the high sensitivity, accuracy and capability of LMS as a mass analyser for space exploration.

The Web KnowARR Framework: Orchestrating Computational Intelligence with Graph Databases

This chapter presents fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) as a vehicle for Web knowledge aggregation, representation, and reasoning. The corresponding Web KnowARR framework incorporates findings from fuzzy logic. To this end, a first emphasis is particularly on the Web KnowARR framework along with a stakeholder management use case to illustrate the framework’s usefulness as a second focal point. This management form is to help projects to acceptance and assertiveness where claims for company decisions are actively involved in the management process. Stakeholder maps visually (re-) present these claims. On one hand, they resort to non-public content and on the other they resort to content that is available to the public (mostly on the Web). The Semantic Web offers opportunities not only to present public content descriptively but also to show relationships. The proposed framework can serve as the basis for the public content of stakeholder maps.

Remarks on Lipschitz domains in Carnot groups

In this Note we present the basic features of the theory of Lipschitz maps within Carnot groups as it is developed in [8], and we prove that intrinsic Lipschitz domains in Carnot groups are uniform domains.

Cartografías de la ciudad. Representación y estilización lingüística en mapas mentales de Buenos Aires

Desde un enfoque constructivista del espacio urbano como producto social, en el presente artículo presentamos algunos aspectos teóricos y metodológicos para el análisis de las representaciones geosociales y la identidad urbana para luego investigar a partir de una selección de mapas mentales la imagen espacial que los hablantes expresan a través de las variedades lingüísticas que distinguen, estilizan y ubican en su cartografía mental de la ciudad. Se trata de un primer acercamiento a un corpus recopilado en 2013, que permite observar, por un lado, que la percepción del espacio urbano está basada en la fuerte identificación de los porteños con los barrios de la ciudad y, por otro lado, que existe en el imaginario colectivo una dicotomía norte-sur estilizada que se refleja tanto en lo social, lo espacial y lo lingüístico.

Central Bahr el Ghazal

The present map sheet is composed of four field maps (1:250'000) and is one of five maps in the overview series (1:500'000). The maps and the geodatabase werde prepared by the Centre for Development and Environment of the Univeristy of Berne, with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Southern Sudan.

Central Equatoria State

The present map sheet is composed of field maps (1:250'000) and is one of nine maps of the Southern Sudan State Map Series (1:500'000). The maps and the Geodatabase were prepared by the Centre for Development and Environment of the University of Berne, with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Southern Sudan.