Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Metodi di ottimizzazione morfologica nel progetto preliminare di propulsori aeronautici avanzati

The aim of this Doctoral Thesis is to develop a genetic algorithm based optimization methods to find the best conceptual design architecture of an aero-piston-engine, for given design specifications. Nowadays, the conceptual design of turbine airplanes starts with the aircraft specifications, then the most suited turbofan or turbo propeller for the specific application is chosen. In the aeronautical piston engines field, which has been dormant for several decades, as interest shifted towards turboaircraft, new materials with increased performance and properties have opened new possibilities for development. Moreover, the engine’s modularity given by the cylinder unit, makes it possible to design a specific engine for a given application. In many real engineering problems the amount of design variables may be very high, characterized by several non-linearities needed to describe the behaviour of the phenomena. In this case the objective function has many local extremes, but the designer is usually interested in the global one. The stochastic and the evolutionary optimization techniques, such as the genetic algorithms method, may offer reliable solutions to the design problems, within acceptable computational time. The optimization algorithm developed here can be employed in the first phase of the preliminary project of an aeronautical piston engine design. It’s a mono-objective genetic algorithm, which, starting from the given design specifications, finds the engine propulsive system configuration which possesses minimum mass while satisfying the geometrical, structural and performance constraints. The algorithm reads the project specifications as input data, namely the maximum values of crankshaft and propeller shaft speed and the maximal pressure value in the combustion chamber. The design variables bounds, that describe the solution domain from the geometrical point of view, are introduced too. In the Matlab® Optimization environment the objective function to be minimized is defined as the sum of the masses of the engine propulsive components. Each individual that is generated by the genetic algorithm is the assembly of the flywheel, the vibration damper and so many pistons, connecting rods, cranks, as the number of the cylinders. The fitness is evaluated for each individual of the population, then the rules of the genetic operators are applied, such as reproduction, mutation, selection, crossover. In the reproduction step the elitist method is applied, in order to save the fittest individuals from a contingent mutation and recombination disruption, making it undamaged survive until the next generation. Finally, as the best individual is found, the optimal dimensions values of the components are saved to an Excel® file, in order to build a CAD-automatic-3D-model for each component of the propulsive system, having a direct pre-visualization of the final product, still in the engine’s preliminary project design phase. With the purpose of showing the performance of the algorithm and validating this optimization method, an actual engine is taken, as a case study: it’s the 1900 JTD Fiat Avio, 4 cylinders, 4T, Diesel. Many verifications are made on the mechanical components of the engine, in order to test their feasibility and to decide their survival through generations. A system of inequalities is used to describe the non-linear relations between the design variables, and is used for components checking for static and dynamic loads configurations. The design variables geometrical boundaries are taken from actual engines data and similar design cases. Among the many simulations run for algorithm testing, twelve of them have been chosen as representative of the distribution of the individuals. Then, as an example, for each simulation, the corresponding 3D models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod, have been automatically built. In spite of morphological differences among the component the mass is almost the same. The results show a significant mass reduction (almost 20% for the crankshaft) in comparison to the original configuration, and an acceptable robustness of the method have been shown. The algorithm here developed is shown to be a valid method for an aeronautical-piston-engine preliminary project design optimization. In particular the procedure is able to analyze quite a wide range of design solutions, rejecting the ones that cannot fulfill the feasibility design specifications. This optimization algorithm could increase the aeronautical-piston-engine development, speeding up the production rate and joining modern computation performances and technological awareness to the long lasting traditional design experiences.

La figura del concessionario di beni e servizi nel demanio marittimo, costiero e portuale

Per la tradizione amministrativa la concessione è lo strumento che consente ai singoli di utilizzare un bene pubblico a titolo particolare. Proprio l’endiadi espressa dai due aggettivi della definizione tradizionale, pubblico e particolare, nasconde la ragione della fortuna dello strumento concessorio, capace di soddisfare, allo stesso tempo, un’esigenza di carattere pubblico ed un bisogno eminentemente privato, sopravvivendo ai più differenti periodi storici ed all’affermarsi delle più radicali correnti di pensiero. A fare da sfondo a questa insanabile tensione, in perenne oscillazione tra i due poli estremi della definizione, la nozione, a sua volta relativa, discussa e costantemente rivisitata, di bene pubblico. Per questa ragione il titolo del lavoro che si presenta è articolato in tre segmenti, che fanno riferimento allo strumento, soltanto formalmente unitario, della concessione negli ambiti del demanio marittimo, del demanio costiero e del demanio portuale. Nel primo capitolo si esamina la disciplina normativa applicabile alle varie tipologie di concessione ipotizzabili sul demanio marittimo, cercando di cogliere, in una prospettiva di analisi diacronica, le linee di evoluzione dell’uso particolare dei beni variamente connessi alle esigenze della navigazione. Il secondo capitolo è, invece, dedicato all’esame dell’elaborazione giurisprudenziale relativa alle vicende del demanio marittimo. Mentre nel terzo capitolo, infine, si è tentato di ricercare e di rappresentare una teoria unitaria della concessione dovuta, in gran parte, all’incedere, apparentemente irresistibile, di un vocabolario comune dei contratti pubblici di matrice comunitaria. In questo contesto appare evidente la crisi, probabilmente irreversibile, della concezione di bene pubblico e quindi di concessione.

Carlos Martí Arís e i suoi eteronimi. Vocazione all'anonimo

Questa ricerca indaga la prospettiva investigativa di Carlos Martí Arís. È stato assunto il campo d’azione da lui prediletto, ovvero l’articolato rapporto che in architettura si instaura tra teoria e pratica, comprensivo delle svariate ricadute nel mondo dell’arte e della produzione umana in genere, che fanno del progetto architettonico un campo disciplinare complesso. La sua figura è però assunta in modo strumentale, come grimaldello per addentrarsi in un articolato ambito culturale, che se da un lato coincide con la sua città, Barcellona, dall’altro la trascende grazie a quei “ponti della conoscenza” che CMA interrottamente ha teso al suo intorno. Ci riferiamo alla sua costruzione teorica destinata a consolidare la storica reciprocità tra Italia e Spagna, le cui tematiche urbane e tipologiche ne sono la base, Milano e Barcellona ne sono gli estremi. Ci riferiamo al suo sguardo sull’esperienza del Movimento Moderno e il relativo tema della residenza. Ci riferiamo alla sua naturale vocazione al silenzio, che si oppone al fragoroso rumore della contemporaneità e affianca la discreta parola del mestiere: un modo per porsi all’ascolto. All’ascolto dell’altro e del mondo. Ci riferiamo, insomma, alla sua idea di architettura intesa come «territorio dissodato da tempi remoti»; come trama di corrispondenze sincroniche tra terre, tempi, fatti, uomini, vicini e lontani: condizione ideale per chi voglia disciogliere il proprio lavoro nei labirintici sentieri del mondo, indifferente al rischio di perdersi nell’oblio. Oggi, in cui il progetto architettonico risulta sempre più spesso veicolo di soggettive e arbitrarie sperimentazioni formali, la lezione di CMA indica una via d’uscita: un mo(n)do condiviso che all’arroganza opponga la discrezione, che persuada a celarsi nella tradizione e a porsi umilmente all’ombra dei maestri. Tradizione e Maestri, Eteronimi e Nomi, complementarità a cui CMA affida il suo progetto di anonimato, sovrapersonale e ostinatamente teso a rilevarne le relazioni inedite.

Salomé et Jean Baptiste. Réinvestissements symboliques et récritures d'un mythe dans la littérature et dans l'art (1870-1914)

La publication de nombreuses œuvres, à la fois littéraires et picturales, entre 1870 et 1914, inspirées par l’épisode biblique du meurtre de Jean Baptiste par Salomé, s’inscrit dans une crise qui touche à cette époque, en Europe, aussi bien le sujet que la notion de représentation. Le mythe de Salomé permet de poursuivre une réflexion de nature littéraire, historique et esthétique concernant le processus d’autonomisation de l’art. À partir des sources bibliques et antiques, dans lesquelles Salomé et Jean Baptiste incarnent respectivement le monde païen en conflit avec le monde chrétien, ces deux personnages font graduellement leur entrée dans l’univers de la fiction. Ils sont au cœur de la transition d’une lecture transcendante — reliée particulièrement à la tradition catholique — de l’épisode tragique qui les unit, à une lecture immanente qui en fait deux instances purement esthétiques. La danseuse et le dernier des prophètes émergent dans la littérature et dans l’art occidentaux comme deux pôles symboliques, liés l’un à l’autre par différents types de relation, susceptibles d’être librement réinvestis par de nouvelles significations et à l’écart des conventions. Si, dans la première partie du XIXe siècle, Salomé et Jean Baptiste sont encore liés à leur sens orthodoxe, au tournant du siècle ils finissent par s’autonomiser de l’Écriture et donnent lieu à de multiples récritures et à des adaptations inattendues. Celles-ci ressortissent alors moins du blasphème à proprement parler que d’un témoignage emblématique d’une transformation du rapport que l’artiste entretient avec son œuvre. Celui-ci, en s’identifiant avec le prophète décollé, se mesure à l’œuvre d’art, qui est incarnée par Salomé. La relation entre Salomé et Jean Baptiste, dans ces diverses représentations, exprime et reflète le moment où art et littérature se reconnaissent comme fictions.

Essays in Vertical Agreements and Consumer Behavior

This thesis collects three independent essays and a literature review. Two of them relate to vertical agreements. The first essay explores a retailer's choice in allocating control rights over the decision of retail prices. Results show that retailers adopt a hybrid configuration as a middle ground between two extremes, where pricing decisions are delegated, for all products, either to retailer or manufacturers. The second essay investigates the make-it-or-license-it choice of a brand owner under the risk of moral hazard when licensing the extension product to a third party. Brand licensing emerges as an equilibrium choice under brand dilution (respectively, enhancement) when the consumer perceives a large (small) distance between the extension product and parent brand. The third essay explores the issue of rating bubbles within online feedback systems by means of a field experiment. The analysis found the presence of positive social influence bias, in that high ratings affect the individual rating behavior in a significant way. The last paper is accompanied by a thorough and deep review of the literature about the consequences of online user ratings on product sales/performance (economic dimension) and product adoption/rating behavior (behavioral dimension). The topic is increasingly investigated by academic researchers and industry professionals alike. This overview presents established results and insights as issues for future research.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.