Wind ensamble forecasting using an adaptive mass-consistent model

[EN]Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model…

Short-term wind power forecast based on cluster analysis and artificial neural networks

[EN]In this paper an architecture for an estimator of short-term wind farm power is proposed. The estimator is made up of a Linear Machine classifier and a set of k Multilayer Perceptrons, training each one for a specific subspace of the input space. The splitting of the input dataset into the k clusters is done using a k-means technique, obtaining the equivalent Linear Machine classifier from the cluster centroids...

Wind forecasting over complex terrain

[EN]In this paper we introduce a new methodology for wind field forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use the predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1, 2]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [3]. The HARMONIE results (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined in a local scale (about a few meters)...

Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

Estudio y análisis de las necesidades computacionales de un parque eólico

[ES] La energía eólica es una de las fuentes de energía renovable más importante hoy día con un continuo crecimiento a nivel mundial. España también ha apostado por las renovables y más concretamente por la energía eólica, materializándose con importantes instalaciones en gran parte de las comunidades autónomas entre ellas, Canarias. Con la realización de este trabajo se pretende estudiar el potencial eólico disponible en la zona donde se pretenda instalar o mantener un parque eólico, empleando para ello la ayuda de un supercomputador, el cual se encargará, por medio de un software de predicción meteorológica, que ayudarán en la decisión de dónde ubicar un parque eólico y, posteriormente, en la fase de explotación, predecir la potencia que un parque eólico inyectará en la red eléctrica con la antelación suficiente para que permita planificar las centrales de reserva de generación de energía tradicional u otras acciones que se consideren de interés. Durante el desarrollo del trabajo emplearemos el software “WRF” de predicción meteorológica. Esto generará un alto coste computacional y es por lo que proponemos realizar los cálculos empleando la ayuda de un supercomputador. Para concluir el trabajo mostraremos las características del supercomputador Atlante, situado en Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, y analizaremos el coste que le supondría a una empresa, la compra o el alquiler de un supercomputador.

Diseño optimizado de alimentación de servicios auxiliares de un parque eólico off-shore en aguas profundas

[ES]La energía eólica marina supone respecto a la energía eólica en tierra una mayor generación de energía, debido a condiciones menos turbulentas del viento y más constantes que permiten mayores diámetros de palas y por tanto mayor generación de energía. En este trabajo se estudia la eficiencia energética en los sistemas auxiliares de una plataforma offshore con aerogenerador para obtención de energía eólica, y se aplican medidas de ahorro y racionalización energética. El ahorro de energía hará más viable la instalación de un sistema de posicionamiento dinámico en las plataformas, en el trabajo se estudia esta posibilidad, de manera que se asegure un mejor recurso, y la posibilidad de instalación sin restricciones legislativas y de profundidades excesivas.

Local flow under weak trade wind regime

[EN] On 8-10 April 2007, several episodes of intense sea-breeze fronts were registered at the islands of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote (Canary Islands). The sea-breeze circulation was primary driven by daytime heating contrasts between land and the Atlantic Ocean during a period of weak trade winds. Numerical simulations of these events were carried out using the 3.1.1 version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model. Three different domains with 6.6-km, 2.2-km and 0.7-km horizontal grid spacing and two sets with 51 and 70 vertical sigma levels were defined. The simulation was performed using two-way interactive nesting between the first and the second domain, using different land surface model parameterizations (Thermal diffusion, Noah LSM and RUC) for comparison. Initial conditions were provided by the NCAR Dataset analysis from April 2007, which were improved using surface and upper-air observations. The poster is focused on the 10 April episode.

Three-dimensional simulation of wind fields and air pollution over complex terrain

[EN]In this talk we introduce a new methodology for wind field simulation or forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use wind measurements or predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1,2]. The method has been recently implemented in the freely-available Wind3D code [3]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [4]. The results of HARMONIE (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined by the finite element model in a local scale (about a few meters). An interface between both models is implemented such that the initial wind field approximation is obtained by a suitable interpolation of the HARMONIE results…

3-D wind field simulation over complex terrain

[EN]A new methodology for wind field simulation or forecasting over complex terrain is introduced. The idea is to use wind measurements or predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model. The method has been recently implemented in the freely-available Wind3D code. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in. HARMONIE provides wind prediction with a maximum resolution about 1 Km that is refined by the finite element model in a local scale (about a few meters). An interface between both models is implemented such that the initial wind field approximation is obtained by a suitable interpolation of the HARMONIE results…