CEPAL Review no.82

The devious maze of the international order: the importation of reforms / David Ibarra. -- Foreign banks in Latin America: a paradoxical result / Graciela Moguillansky, Rogerio Studart and Sebastián Vergara. -- A proposal for unitary taxes on the profits of transnational corporations / Andrew Mold. -- Regional integration and macroeconomic coordination in Latin America / Hubert Escaith. -- Import substitution in high-tech industries: Prebisch lives in Asia! / Alice H. Amsden. -- Industrial competitiveness in Brazil ten years after economic liberalization / João Carlos Ferraz, David Kupfer and Mariana Iootty. -- The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns / Célio Hiratuka and Fernanda De Negri. -- Information and knowledge: the diffusion of information and communication technologies in the Argentine manufacturing sector / Gabriel Yoguel, Marta Novick, Darío Milesi, Sonia Roitter and José Borello. -- Local economic development and decentralization in Latin America / Francisco Alburquerque, in memory of Gabriel Aghón. -- Migrations, the labour market and poverty in Greater Buenos Aires / Rosalía Cortés and Fernando Groisman. -- Households, poverty and policy in times of crisis. Mexico, 1992-1996 / Benjamin Davis, Sudhanshu Handa and Humberto Soto. -- CEPAL Review on the Internet. -- Recent ECLAC publications.

Esbozo de la dinámica histórica y algunos aspectos de los sistemas nacionales de formación profesional en América Latina

En el presente documento se analizan diferentes aspectos vinculados a los Sistemas Nacionales de Formación Profesional y Capacitación (SNFPC). Se aborda una reseña histórica de las IFP, características generales de dichas Instituciones, la propuesta para los grupos vulnerables centrados en las juventudes, la educación formal y la evaluación de la capacitación para el empleo.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Advances and challenges in measuring decent work

At 6.4%, the unemployment rate for the Latin American and Caribbean region overall was the lowest for the past few decades, down from 6.7% in 2011. This is significant, in view of the difficult employment situation prevailing in other world regions. Labour market indicators improved despite modest growth of just 3.0% in the region’s economy. Even with sharply rising labour market participation, the number of urban unemployed fell by around 400,000, on the back of relatively strong job creation. Nevertheless, around 15 million are still jobless in the region. Other highlights of 2012 labour market performance were that the gender gaps in labour market participation, unemployment and employment narrowed, albeit slightly; formal employment increased; the hourly underemployment rate declined; and average wages rose. This rendering was obviously not homogenous across the region. Labour market indicators worsened again in the Caribbean countries, for example, reflecting the sluggish performance of their economies. The sustainability of recent labour market progress is also a cause for concern. Most of the new jobs in the region were created as part of a self-perpetuating cycle in which new jobs and higher real wages (and greater access to credit) have boosted household purchasing power and so pushed up domestic demand. Much of this demand is for non-tradable goods and services (and imports), which has stimulated expansion of the tertiary sector and hence its demand for labour, and many of the new jobs have therefore arisen in these sectors of the economy. This dynamic certainly has positive implications in terms of labour and distribution, but the concern is whether it is sustainable in a context of still relatively low investment (even after some recent gains) which is, moreover, not structured in a manner conducive to diversifying production. Doubt hangs over the future growth of production capacity in the region, given the enormous challenges facing the region in terms of innovation, education quality, infrastructure and productivity. As vigorous job creation has driven progress in reducing unemployment, attention has turned once again to the characteristics of that employment. Awareness exists in the region that economic growth is essential, but not in itself sufficient to generate more and better jobs. For some time, ILO has been drawing attention to the fact that it is not enough to create any sort of employment. The concept of decent work, as proposed by ILO, emphasized the need for quality jobs which enshrine respect for fundamental rights at work. The United Nations General Assembly endorsed this notion and incorporated it into the targets set in the framework of the Millennium Development Goals. This eighth issue of the ECLAC/ILO publication “The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean” examines how the concept of decent work has evolved in the region, progress in measuring it and the challenges involved in building a system of decent work indicators, 14 years after the concept was first proposed. Although the concept of decent work has been accompanied since the outset by the challenge of measurement, its first objective was to generate a discussion on the best achievable labour practices in each country. Accordingly, rather than defining a universal threshold of what could be considered decent work —regarding which developed countries might have almost reached the target before starting, while poor countries could be left hopelessly behind— ILO called upon the countries to define their own criteria and measurements for promoting decent work policies. As a result, there is no shared set of variables for measuring decent work applicable to all countries. The suggestion is, instead, that countries move forward with measuring decent work on the basis of their own priorities, using the information they have available now and in the future. However, this strategy of progressing according to the data available in each country tends to complicate statistical comparison between them. So, once the countries have developed their respective systems of decent work indicators, it will be also be important to work towards harmonizing them. ECLAC and ILO are available to provide technical support to this end. With respect to 2013, there is cautious optimism regarding the performance of the region’s labour markets. If projections of a slight uptick —to 3.5%— in the region’s economic growth in 2013 are borne out, labour indicators should continue to gradually improve. This will bring new increases in real wages and a slight drop of up to 0.2 percentage points in the region’s unemployment rate, reflecting a fresh rise in the regional employment rate and slower growth in labour market participation.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Countercyclical policies for a sustained recovery in employment

Latin America and the Caribbean experienced an unexpectedly vigorous economic recovery in 2010 after the output contraction of 2009. This upturn was reflected in the region’s employment and unemployment rates, which resumed the positive trends that had been broken by the crisis, and formal wages rose slightly. The strength of the recovery and labour-market performance varied markedly across subregions and countries, however. The first part of this joint ECLAC/ILO publication on the employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean looks at how labour markets have responded to the rapid economic upswing in 2010 and early 2011, highlighting both the significant advances achieved in the post-crisis period and the sharp differences evident across subregions and countries. As well as tapping into the improved external conditions which followed upon the Asianled global economic upturn, several Latin American countries were also able to contain the impacts of the crisis and underpin their own recovery with countercyclical policies, thanks to the leeway gained by their macroeconomic management during the run of growth from 2003 to 2008. These countries were in a position to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, some of which channelled higher fiscal spending through labour-market policies or softened the impact of the crisis on employment and income, as discussed in previous ECLAC/ILO bulletins. Since the region is fairly new to the use of countercyclical policies, the second part of this document reviews the experiences arising from those policies and considers lessons for institutionalizing them. Economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean region has historically been marked by the volatility of its economic cycles, with high-growth periods being succeeded by deep crises. Volatility has conspired against the use of production resources over extended periods and short growth horizons have impeded investment in capital and labour. In the recent international crisis, the deployment of countercyclical macroeconomic policy helped to reduce the depth and duration of the impact and to leverage a more rapid recovery. It is therefore worth looking at the fundamentals of a long-term countercyclical macroeconomic policy which would provide the tools needed to deal with future crises and pave the way for economic growth that may be sustained over time. A special factor during this crisis was that a greater effort was made to support employment and income. Several of the labour-market policy measures taken acted as vehicles for conveying increased fiscal spending to individuals, reflecting greater consideration for equality concerns. Indeed, these measures were aimed not only at stabilizing andstrengthening domestic demand per se, but also at preventing the crisis from hitting lowest-income households the hardest, as had occurred in previous episodes. And —again unlike the pattern seen in previous episodes— inflation actually fell during the crisis as the high food and fuel prices seen in the run-up to it eased as a result of both existing macroeconomic policies and global conditions. This averted the surge in inequality so often seen in previous crises. Two caveats must be added, however. First, not all the countries were in a position to deploy strong countercyclical policies. Many simply lacked the fiscal space to do so. Second, some countries took this sort of measure more as an ad hoc response to the crisis than as part of a clearly established countercyclical policy strategy. The challenge, then, is to institutionalize a countercyclical approach throughout the economic cycle. Taking up this challenge is part of making economic growth more sustainable. This year —2011— was ushered in by rapid economic growth and substantial improvements in labour indicators. With the region’s GDP projected to grow well over 4% this year, ECLAC and ILO estimate that the regional unemployment rate will fall substantially again, from 7.3% in 2010 to between 6.7% and 7.0% in 2011.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

Social Panorama of Latin America 2014

The 2014 edition of Social Panorama of Latin America presents ECLAC measurements for the analysis of income poverty, taking, as well, a multidimensional approach to poverty. Applying these two approaches to data for the countries of the region provides confirmation that despite the progress made over the past decade, structural poverty is still a feature of Latin American society. In order to contribute to a more comprehensive design of public policies aimed at overcoming poverty and socioeconomic inequality, this edition examines recent trends in social spending and sets out a deeper gap analysis focused on three areas: youth and development, gender inequality in the labour market and urban residential segregation.

Work, family and public policy changes in Latin America: Equity, maternalism and co-responsibility

Taking account of the substantial increase in female labour market participation that has occurred throughout the Latin American region, this article describes policies adopted with the aim of reconciling work and family responsibilities between 2003 and 2013, and the implications of their design for socioeconomic and gender equity. We look at the cases of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay, five countries which, on the basis of their track records, are the best placed to implement policies to reorganize time, income and services. The empirical analysis indicates, first, that these changes have contributed to socioeconomic equity more consistently than to gender equity. Second, the scale and type of change was found to vary significantly from one country to another. The article concludes by raising a number of substantive questions about the measures, their implementation and effectiveness, and the variations between countries.

CEPAL Review no. 113

Development then and now: Idea and utopia / Rolando Cordera Campos .-- Latin America’s competitive position in knowledge-intensive services trade / Andrés López, Andrés Niembro and Daniela Ramos .-- Wage share and economic growth in Latin America, 1950-2011 / Germán Alarco Tosoni .-- Patterns of technical progress in the Brazilian economy, 1952-2008 / Adalmir Marquetti and Melody de Campos Soares Porsse .-- Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys / Pilar Poncela, Víctor M. Guerrero, Alejandro Islas, Julio Rodríguez and Rocío Sánchez-Mangas .-- Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends / Bibiana Lanzilotta .-- Argentina: Impacts of the child allowance programme on the labour-market behaviour of adults / Roxana Maurizio and Gustavo Vázquez .-- Occupational mobility and income differentials: The experience of Brazil between 2002 and 2010 / Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Julimar da Silva Bichara and André Moreira Cunha .-- What does the National High School Exam (enem) tell Brazilian society? / Rodrigo Travitzki, Jorge Calero and Carlota Boto .-- Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth / Fabrício Carneiro Linhares, Ricardo Brito Soares, Marcos Falcão Gonçalves and Luiz Fernando Gonçalves Viana.

CEPAL Review no.56

Democracy and development / Fernando H. Cardoso. -- Can growth and equity go hand in hand? / Joseph Ramos. -- Stability and structure: interactions in economic growth / José Maria Fanelli and Roberto Frenkel. -- Pension system reform in Latin America / Andras Uthoff. -- Recent economic trends in China and their implications for trade with Latin America and the Caribbean / Mikio Kuwayama. -- Economic relations between Latin America and the high-performing Asian developing economies / Ronald Sprout. -- Economic relations between Latin America and the European Union / Roberto Smith Perera. -- Rules of origin: new implications / Eduardo Gitli. -- Globalization and restructuring the energy sector in Latin America / Femando Sánchez Albavera. -- The kaleidoscope of competitiveness / Geraldo Müller. -- The privatization of public water utilities / Miguel Solones. -- How much can we spend on education? / Guillermo Labarca. -- Women and migrants: inequalities in the labour market of Santiago, Chile / Ivonne Szasz.

Regional study on Women's unrecognized contribution to the economy

The findings and analysis of this study are based on desk review and secondary data to substantiate this growing phenomenon, especially among the female population. Further the recommendations that will be put forward in this study will be added to the literature and serve as a baseline for further study in the Caribbean region. The study is sectionalized as follows. Chapter one discusses in brief the demographics, social and economic profiles of Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. This chapter also examines the employment rate, gender and poverty, and the achievements and progress of member states as it relates to the MDGs especially goal number 3. Men are more likely to be employed in the formal sector than women, and earn higher wages and salaries in the labour market despite the fact women may have obtained tertiary level education. The literature showed that women are at home spending more time on child care and other household related responsibilities but this can still be considered employment. This chapter also addresses the achievements and progress of member states as it relates to the MDGs especially Goal 3. Chapter 2 identifies the literature review of related subjects for this study. Chapter 3 discusses the categories and type of labour activities in the informal economies in the Caribbean Region, for example, paid and unpaid work, time use, women working and their caring, responsibilities for their relatives, domestic workers being undervalued and under paid, street and market vendors, micro-enterprises the services sector and commercial sex workers. Chapter 4 examines the importance of social protection for those employed in the informal labour market and the self employed. Chapter 5 provides a preliminary analysis of the findings from this study. Chapter 6 details the preliminary conclusions and recommendations.

Socio-demographic analysis of youth in the Caribbean- a three country case study

Many Caribbean youth are doing reasonably well. They live in loving and caring families, attend school and are involved in various social activities in their communities. The health and well-being of the children and youth1 in the Caribbean is, and has been, the centre of attention of many studies, meetings and policy directives set at the regional, subregional and national levels. Programmes have been put in place to address the basic needs of young children in the areas of health and education and to provide guidance and directives to youth and adolescents in the area of professional formation and transition to adulthood. Critical issues such as reproductive health and family planning combined with access to education and information on these topics have been promoted to some extent. And finally, the Caribbean is known for rather high school enrolment rates in primary education that hardly show any gender disparities. While the situation is still good for some, growing numbers of children and youth cannot cope anymore with the challenges experienced quite early in their lives. Absent parents, instable care-taking arrangements, violence and aggression subjected to at home, in schools and among their friends, lack of a perspective in schools and the labour-market, early sexual initiation and teenage pregnancies are some of those issues faced by a rising number of young persons in this part of the world. Emotional instability, psychological stress and increased violence are one of the key triggers for increased violence and involvement in crime exhibited by ever younger youth and children. Further, the region is grappling with rising drop-out rates in secondary education, declining quality schooling in the classrooms and increasing numbers of students who leave school without formal certification. Youth unemployment in the formal labour market is high and improving the quality of professional formation along with the provision of adequate employment opportunities would be critical to enable youth to complete consistently and effectively the transition into adulthood and to take advantage of the opportunities to develop and use their human capital in the process. On a rather general note, the region does not suffer from a shortage of policies and programmes to address the very specific needs of children and youth, but the prominent and severe lack of systematic analysis and monitoring of the situation of children, youth and young families in the Caribbean does not allow for targeted and efficient interventions that promise successful outcomes on the long term. In an effort to assist interested governments to fill this analytical gap, various initiatives are underway to enhance data collection and their systematic analysis2. Population and household censuses are conducted every decade and a variety of household surveys, such as surveys of living conditions, labour force surveys and special surveys focusing on particular sub-groups of the population are conducted, dependent on the resources available, to a varying degree in the countries of the region. One such example is the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)-funded Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) that assess the situation of children and youth in a country. Over the past years and at present, UNICEF has launched a series of surveys in a number of countries in the Caribbean3. But more needs to be done to ensure that the data available is analyzed to provide the empirical background information for evidence-based policy formulation and monitoring of the efficiency and effectiveness of the efforts undertaken.

Determinants of unfair inequality in Brazil, 1995 and 2009

This article analyses the trend of unfair inequality in Brazil (1995-2009) using a nonparametric approach to estimate the income function. The entropy metrics introduced by Li, Maasoumi and Racine (2009) are used to quantify income differences separately for each effort variable. A Gini coefficient of unfair inequality is calculated, based on the fitted values of the non-parametric estimation; and the robustness of the estimations, including circumstantial variables, is analysed. The trend of the entropies demonstrated a reduction in the income differential caused by education. The variables “hours worked” and “labour-market status” contribute significantly to explaining wage differences imputed to individual effort; but the migratory variable had little explanatory power. Lastly, the robustness analysis demonstrated the plausibility of the results obtained at each stage of the empirical work.

Impacto socioeconómico de YPF desde su renacionalización (Ley 26.741): desempeño productivo e implicancias sobre los mercados laborales y el entramado de proveedores. Volumen I

Convenio Marco de Cooperación Técnica entre la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe e YPF S.A., Acta Complementaria de Cooperación Técnica Nº 1

¿Estudias o trabajas? El largo camino hacia la independencia económica de los jóvenes de América Latina

Este estudio es un aporte al diagnóstico de la transición de la escuela al trabajo entre jóvenes de 15 a 29 años, con una descripción actualizada y detallada de indicadores laborales por género para 18 países de la región.

Análisis estructural de la economía costarricense: el mercado laboral

En este estudio se analiza en forma detallada la capacidad de dinamizar la generación de empleo en el mercado laboral costarricense, utilizando para ello la matriz de insumo-producto elaborada por el Banco Central de Costa Rica para 2011. Se parte de un marco analítico riguroso sustentado en cuentas nacionales a fin de analizar los principales desafíos de articulación de la economía nacional, enfatizando la capacidad diferenciada de los sectores de dinamizar la generación de empleos, la heterogeneidad estructural en términos de las diferencias sectoriales en la capacidad de generación de valor agregado, la predominancia del sector servicios en la economía costarricense y sus implicancias.