Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical law for multiplicities of SU(3) irreps (lambda, mu) in the plethysm {eta} circle times(3) {m} -> (lambda, mu)

A statistical law for the multiplicities of the SU(3) irreps (lambda, mu) in the reduction of totally symmetric irreducible representations {m} of U(N), N = (eta + 1) (eta + 2)/2 with eta being the three-dimensional oscillator major shell quantum number, is derived in terms of the quadratic and cubic invariants of SU(3), by determining the first three terms of an asymptotic expansion for the multiplicities. To this end, the bivariate Edgeworth expansion known in statistics is used. Simple formulae, in terms of m and eta, for all the parameters in the expansion are derived. Numerical tests with large m and eta = 4, 5 and 6 show good agreement with the statistical formula for the SU(3) multiplicities.

Marigold (Tagetes erecta L.) as an attractive crop to natural enemies in onion fields

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização e análise do sistema de abastecimento de água potável no município de Botucatu, SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Aplicação e análise do uso racional de energia elétrica na Fazenda Experimental Lageado-UNESP, Botucatu-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Percepções de profissionais de uma organização de procura de órgãos sobre a entrevista com familiares de potenciais doadores

In the last twenty years, and more expressively in the past decade, the search for improvement in the organ transplantation system has contributed to the achievement of positive results in the Brazilian statistics related to the survival of transplanted individuals. However, for a transplantation to be performed, a number of phases must be followed by professionals working in organ search services. The phase that generates the greatest tension is undoubtedly that of family interviews, as it involves both the feelings of relatives who are facing a recent loss and those of interviewers who need to know how to deal with families at this time. The goal of this study was to apprehend perceptions of professionals working for an Organ Search Organization concerning interviews with relatives of potential donors. The qualitative methodology was used by adopting the Collective Subject Discourse for data organization. Interviews were conducted with six staff members of an organ search service whose experience as interviewers comprised from eight to fourteen years of work. It was possible to apprehend the professionals’ perceptions of family interviews and identify facilitating and hindering factors in this phase of the donation process. Such factors mainly involve: contact with the teams assisting patients, the difficult moment that families are experiencing and the teams’ as well as the institution’s preparation for rendering this type of service. The balance between the offer of and demand for organs in Brazil will only be achieved by means of an efficient and effective structure in transplantation organ search services and increased donation consent rates to be obtained by adequate communication between interviewers and relatives

Natural fibers based composites - Technical and social issues

Brazil is the only country in South America to have an automotive supplier sector based on natural fibers. New opportunities are arising due to an increase demand by the car makers in applying natural fibers in their parts. Several crop fibers have been developed in Brazil. Among them can be listed caroa, piacava, pupunha, mutum and others of regional application. For the automotive industry, which requires large quantities with uniform quality, the alternatives are sisal (170,000 ton/yr), curaua (150 ton/yr in 2003), malva, 200 ton/yr; Brazil is the single largest producer country of sisal, and commercially, the only one in curaua. For South America, the alternatives are fique in Colombia, abaca in equator, flax in Argentina and curaua in Venezuela. It must be understood by the target countries of drugs, is that crop fiber can be an economic alternative to coca in the Andes region, therefore an instrument of land reform and drug reduction plantations. Several companies have a strong program of apply natural fibers based components in their products: Volkswagen do Brazil, DaimlerChrysler, General Motors do Brazil. Among their suppliers can be listed companies such Pematec (curaua), Toro (sisal, coir and jute), Incomer (sisal and jute), Ober (jute, curaua), Indaru (jute and sisal), Antolin (imported kenaf,) Tapetes Sao Carlos (sisal), Poematec (coir) and Art-Gore, with Woodstock'' wood and natural fibers). Figures about production and demand are discussed in the paper.

Nutrição e produção da bananeira 'Prata-anã' adubada com zinco e boro diretamente no rizoma, via muda desbastada

Com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de diferentes doses de Zn e B, aplicados diretamente no rizoma, via muda desbastada, sobre a nutrição das plantas e produção da bananeira 'Prata-anã', foi instalado um experimento em Jaíba - MG, sob irrigação, conduzido por três ciclos produtivos consecutivos. Utilizou-se o desbastador lurdinha para extrair a gema apical de um broto cortado rente ao solo, de forma que, no local, ficasse um orifício onde os adubos foram aplicados. Empregou-se o delineamento experimental inteiramente casualizado, com 20 tratamentos resultantes de um fatorial completo entre 5 doses de zinco (0; 2,5; 5,0; 7,5 e 10,0 g de Zn família-1 ano-1) x 4 doses de boro (0; 0,68; 1,36 e 2,04 g B família-1 ano-1), com 10 repetições de uma planta. Avaliaram-se os teores de nutrientes na terceira folha e a produção em massa de frutos por cacho. Os adubos promoveram alterações nos teores foliares de nutrientes, porém sem magnitude suficiente para alterar a condição nutricional quando se consideram as faixas de suficiência. O Zn interferiu na produção, porém os menores valores foram observados na dose intermediária e não houve ajuste de modelo de regressão.

Nutrition-related habits and associated factors of Brazilian adolescents

To investigate the nutrition-related habits (NRH) of Brazilian adolescents and evaluate the associations with risk factors.Cross-sectional school-based was carried out among high school adolescents aged 14-18 years (n = 1,759) from public and private schools from two cities. The NRH were investigated by the weekly consumption of vegetables, fruit, sweet food and fried food. Risk factors investigated were: city, sex, age, socioeconomic status and nutritional status. In statistics, Poisson regression was used with robust variance adjustment.Data indicated low consumption of fruits and vegetables, 70.0 and 71.0%, respectively, and high consumption of sweets and fried food, 66.7 and 63%, respectively. Boys showed risk of inadequate intake of vegetables [prevalence ratios (PR) 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.16] and fruit (PR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.16). Furthermore, adolescents who live in Maringa had greater likelihood of consuming vegetables and fruit (20 and 25%, respectively). However, they presented risk of inadequate consumption of sweets (PR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.28) for adolescents who live in Presidente Prudente.We concluded that inadequate NRH show high prevalence among adolescents and indicate the need to employ educational strategies that promote the adoption of more healthy habits and behaviors.

Surface finishing of flat pieces when submitted to lapping kinematics on abrasive disc dressed under several overlap factors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new chart for monitoring the covariance matrix of bivariate processes

In this article we consider a control chart based on the sample variances of two quality characteristics. The points plotted on the chart correspond to the maximum value of these two statistics. The main reason to consider the proposed chart instead of the generalized variance |S| chart is its better diagnostic feature, that is, with the new chart it is easier to relate an out-of-control signal to the variables whose parameters have moved away from their in-control values. We study the control chart efficiency considering different shifts in the covariance matrix. In this way, we obtain the average run length (ARL) that measures the effectiveness of a control chart in detecting process shifts. The proposed chart always detects process disturbances faster than the generalized variance |S| chart. The same is observed when the size of the samples is variable, except in a few cases in which the size of the samples switches between small size and very large size.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Some practical advice on polynomial regression analysis from blocked response surface designs

It is often necessary to run response surface designs in blocks. In this paper the analysis of data from such experiments, using polynomial regression models, is discussed. The definition and estimation of pure error in blocked designs are considered. It is recommended that pure error is estimated by assuming additive block and treatment effects, as this is more consistent with designs without blocking. The recovery of inter-block information using REML analysis is discussed, although it is shown that it has very little impact if thc design is nearly orthogonally blocked. Finally prediction from blocked designs is considered and it is shown that prediction of many quantities of interest is much simpler than prediction of the response itself.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)