56 resultados para Tempered MCMC


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In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.

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The 4340 are classified as ultra-high strength steels used by the aviation industry and aerospace applications such as aircraft landing gear and several structural applications, usually in quenched and tempered condition. In this situation occurs reduction of toughness, which encourages the study of multiphasic and bainitic structures, in order to maintain strength without loss of toughness. In this study, ferritic-pearlitic structure was compared to bainitic and martensitic structure, identified by the reagents Nital, LePera and Sodium Metabisulfite. Sliding wear tests of the type pin-on-disk were realized and the results related to the microstructure of these materials and also to their hardnesses. It is noted that these different microstructures had very similar behavior, concluding that all three tested pairs can be used according to the request level.

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This work examines the possible effects of successive repair procedures on the microstructure of welded steel SAE 4130 by TIG welding process. Discussions and results were made about the metallographic analysis , non-metallic inclusions and microhardness tests , which were conducted on samples taken from the cradle engine component after the end of its life , a model airplane T-27 Tucano , made by EMBRAER and belonging were performed FAB . The choice of such component is due to the fact that this is critical to flight safety since it provides support for the aircraft engine . Thus regions of the weld metal , base metal and heat affected , with samples of the original weld bead , free of weld bead and also with four rework procedures for TIG welding zone were analyzed . It was found that after the fourth rework there is an increase in the amount of martensite , which may weaken the material with respect to resistance to fatigue. It was also found that the regions of the heat affected zone and weld metal have higher microhardness values when compared to those found in the base metal due to favoring the formation of ferritic and tempered martensite microstructures . Moreover, a welding process promotes a region with less non-metallic inclusions than metal base , which also explains the difference in the results obtained

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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In this paper, we propose a bivariate distribution for the bivariate survival times based on Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula to model the dependence on a bivariate survival data. The proposed model allows for the presence of censored data and covariates. For inferential purpose a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is considered. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. In order to examine outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated via a simulation study and a real dataset.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The multiphase steels are gaining increasing attention in scientific studies because of the different mechanical and microstructural properties that the material can achieve under different thermomechanical and heat treatments that can be submitted. In the present study, it was made a microstructural study thru the triple attack technic associated with optical microscopy and mechanical characterization of medium carbon AISI 4350 steel thru a tensile strength test, subjected to three routes of heat treatment: annealing, quenching and tempering and isothermal annealing. It was verified the predominance of ferrite-perlite constituent in the specimen annealed, martensitic in the quenched and tempered specimen and bainitic in the annealed isothermally specimen. The annealed material showed a higher ductility, while the hardened and tempered specimen showed the highest hardness and ultimately the bainitic specimen showed a combination of the two abovementioned mechanical properties. Thus, we proved that the multiphase steel SAE 4350 can be a versatile material with great potential for various industrial applications